Gary M Posted October 28, 2020 Posted October 28, 2020 (edited) On 10/25/2020 at 7:15 AM, Reality Check said: That is an ugly blue door not a poll, no oversampling, no dishonest answers, just data driven. http://primarymodel.com/2020-1 Edited October 28, 2020 by Gary M
The Frankish Reich Posted October 28, 2020 Posted October 28, 2020 We are starting to get the final wave of pre-election day polls. And not surprisingly ... very little change. This one isn't really a poll, but it provides some sound explanations for why. https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/election-live-updates-trump-biden-2020-10-28/card/x2JHukTnPfUAWLWT2qHE A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News survey has found no evidence, so far, of the kind of late surge toward President Trump among undecided voters that helped produce his unexpected wins in 2016. When pollsters asked themselves how so many missed signs that Mr. Trump would win the 2016 election, one factor they identified was a late swing toward him in the last days of the campaign. About 13% of voters in Wisconsin, Florida and Pennsylvania settled on their candidate choice in the week before the last election, a report by a professional association of opinion researchers found. Those voters broke for Mr. Trump by 30 percentage points in Wisconsin and by 17 points in Florida and Pennsylvania, helping to deliver narrow victories, the study said. This month, the Journal/NBC News poll went looking for signs of a similar, late shift—and found a different picture than in 2016. Undecided voters seem to be moving equally toward both presidential candidates. 2
Tiberius Posted October 28, 2020 Author Posted October 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, wAcKy ZeBrA said: Oh, hope that is it. 50% mark looks real good. What a win that would be and the Senate seats! That Purdue is a POS 1
Backintheday544 Posted October 28, 2020 Posted October 28, 2020 1 hour ago, The Frankish Reich said: We are starting to get the final wave of pre-election day polls. And not surprisingly ... very little change. This one isn't really a poll, but it provides some sound explanations for why. https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/election-live-updates-trump-biden-2020-10-28/card/x2JHukTnPfUAWLWT2qHE A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News survey has found no evidence, so far, of the kind of late surge toward President Trump among undecided voters that helped produce his unexpected wins in 2016. When pollsters asked themselves how so many missed signs that Mr. Trump would win the 2016 election, one factor they identified was a late swing toward him in the last days of the campaign. About 13% of voters in Wisconsin, Florida and Pennsylvania settled on their candidate choice in the week before the last election, a report by a professional association of opinion researchers found. Those voters broke for Mr. Trump by 30 percentage points in Wisconsin and by 17 points in Florida and Pennsylvania, helping to deliver narrow victories, the study said. This month, the Journal/NBC News poll went looking for signs of a similar, late shift—and found a different picture than in 2016. Undecided voters seem to be moving equally toward both presidential candidates. The higher turn out also should make the polls more accurate. 1
The Frankish Reich Posted October 28, 2020 Posted October 28, 2020 Today's flurry of polls: Other than the Rasmussen outlier and maybe the Emerson national poll, we're still seeing: - remarkable consistency in the lead for Biden - an actual shift toward Biden in some swing states, corresponding with an overall shift of a few points toward Dems in general There's a lot of debate about what that ABC/Wash Post outlier for Wisconsin means/doesn't mean (Biden + 17!). Consensus seems to be that it's part real, part statistical blip. The argument for "real" is that the horrible COVID numbers in Wisconsin are driving people away from Trump and toward Biden, and indeed that does seem to be a theme whenever and wherever we see bad regional outbreaks. Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread General Election: Trump vs. Biden Emerson Biden 50, Trump 45 Biden +5 General Election: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Biden 47, Trump 48 Trump +1 General Election: Trump vs. Biden Economist/YouGov Biden 54, Trump 43 Biden +11 General Election: Trump vs. Biden vs. Jorgensen vs. Hawkins IBD/TIPP Biden 50, Trump 45, Jorgensen 2, Hawkins 1 Biden +5 Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden Trafalgar Group (R)* Biden 48, Trump 47 Biden +1 Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden ABC News/Wash Post* Biden 57, Trump 40 Biden +17 Michigan: Trump vs. Biden NY Times/Siena* Biden 49, Trump 41 Biden +8 Michigan: Trump vs. Biden ABC News/Wash Post* Biden 51, Trump 44 Biden +7 North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden Civitas/Harper (R)* Biden 47, Trump 46 Biden +1 Georgia: Trump vs. Biden Monmouth* Trump 46, Biden 50 Biden +4 Maine: Trump vs. Biden Colby College Biden 51, Trump 38 Biden +13 Maine CD2: Trump vs. Biden Colby College Trump 42, Biden 46 Biden +4 Virginia: Trump vs. Biden Christopher Newport Univ. Biden 53, Trump 41 Biden +12 Maine Senate - Collins vs. Gideon Colby College* Gideon 47, Collins 43 Gideon +4 Michigan Senate - James vs. Peters NY Times/Siena* Peters 49, James 41 Peters +8 Georgia Senate - Perdue vs. Ossoff Monmouth* Perdue 47, Ossoff 49 Ossoff +2 Michigan Senate - James vs. Peters ABC News/Wash Post Peters 52, James 46 Peters +6 North Carolina Senate - Tillis vs. Cunningham Civitas/Harper (R)* Cunningham 46, Tillis 43 Cunningham +3 Georgia Senate Special Election - Open Primary Monmouth Warnock 41, Collins 19, Loeffler 22, Lieberman 4, Slowinski 2, Tarver 3 Warnock +19 Michigan Senate - James vs. Peters Detroit News/WDIV-TV Peters 48, James 39 Peters +9 Virginia Senate - Gade vs. Warner Christopher Newport Univ. Warner 57, Gade 37 Warner +20 Maine 2nd District - Crafts vs. Golden Colby College Golden 56, Crafts 31 Golden +25 President Trump Job Approval Emerson Approve 45, Disapprove 51 Disapprove +6 President Trump Job Approval Rasmussen Reports Approve 52, Disapprove 47 Approve +5 President Trump Job Approval Economist/YouGov Approve 42, Disapprove 56 Disapprove +14 Congressional Job Approval Economist/YouGov Approve 15, Disapprove 68 Disapprove +53 2020 Generic Congressional Vote Economist/YouGov Democrats 52, Republicans 42 Democrats +10 Direction of Country Economist/YouGov Right Direction 30, Wrong Track 65 Wrong Track +35 1
Warcodered Posted October 28, 2020 Posted October 28, 2020 https://www.usnews.com/news/elections/articles/2020-10-28/analysis-tossup-states-grow-but-biden-still-leads-in-electoral-college-projection Thought this was interesting basically says the number of toss ups has increased from both sides. But the numbers for Trump were interesting with him having 163 with only 96 tossups doesn't exactly add up well for him.
Tiberius Posted October 30, 2020 Author Posted October 30, 2020 North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden NBC News/Marist Biden 52, Trump 46 Biden +6 Yup
Big Gun Posted October 30, 2020 Posted October 30, 2020 (edited) 59 minutes ago, Tiberius said: North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden NBC News/Marist Biden 52, Trump 46 Biden +6 Yup Hahaha... so which poll is more accurate? A biased NBC news poll or the unbiased Trafalger Group. This is from Oct 25th NC Oct 2020 Presidential Poll Donald Trump 48.8% Joe Biden 46.0% Jo Jorgensen 2.3% Howie Hawkins 0.4% Don Blankenship 0.2% Someone Else 0.6% Undecided 1.7% See Report Here Edited October 30, 2020 by Big Gun
Tiberius Posted October 30, 2020 Author Posted October 30, 2020 15 minutes ago, Big Gun said: Hahaha... so which poll is more accurate? A biased NBC news poll or the unbiased Trafalger Group. This is from Oct 25th NC Oct 2020 Presidential Poll Donald Trump 48.8% Joe Biden 46.0% Jo Jorgensen 2.3% Howie Hawkins 0.4% Don Blankenship 0.2% Someone Else 0.6% Undecided 1.7% See Report Here Trafalger gets promoted by Trump all the time. That's a pretty damning indictment to their credibility. I'll just say this, i really think NC goes Dem. I'll explain. Obama won in 2008 and theres been a lot of change there since. Mitt won it back and then in 2016 Trump won but the Dems captured the governors mansion, so it seems Hillary was the reason Dems lost Presidential vote there. . It's a Democratic state in the making with the growing cities and more diverse population. Only time will tell now, though. 1
Warcodered Posted October 30, 2020 Posted October 30, 2020 5 minutes ago, Tiberius said: Trafalger gets promoted by Trump all the time. That's a pretty damning indictment to their credibility. I'll just say this, i really think NC goes Dem. I'll explain. Obama won in 2008 and theres been a lot of change there since. Mitt won it back and then in 2016 Trump won but the Dems captured the governors mansion, so it seems Hillary was the reason Dems lost Presidential vote there. . It's a Democratic state in the making with the growing cities and more diverse population. Only time will tell now, though. They literally say they skew in his favor to apparently cover for "shy voters" or some BS. 538 rates them as C- and they've been correct 75% of the time. But they're the only unbiased poll for some totally unbiased reason I'm sure. 3
Doc Brown Posted October 30, 2020 Posted October 30, 2020 1 minute ago, Warcodered said: They literally say they skew in his favor to apparently cover for "shy voters" or some BS. 538 rates them as C- and they've been correct 75% of the time. But they're the only unbiased poll for some totally unbiased reason I'm sure. Republican pollsters like tralafagar got lucky in 2016 because all the undecids broke for Trump at the last second mostly because of Comey opening up the Hillary investigation. Since there's less undecideds this time the polls should be more accurate. I just go with the averages like the midterms. 2
TBBills Posted October 30, 2020 Posted October 30, 2020 43 minutes ago, Big Gun said: Hahaha... so which poll is more accurate? A biased NBC news poll or the unbiased Trafalger Group. This is from Oct 25th NC Oct 2020 Presidential Poll Donald Trump 48.8% Joe Biden 46.0% Jo Jorgensen 2.3% Howie Hawkins 0.4% Don Blankenship 0.2% Someone Else 0.6% Undecided 1.7% See Report Here So if Biden was winning in that poll it would be biased right?
Tiberius Posted October 30, 2020 Author Posted October 30, 2020 1 hour ago, TBBills said: So if Biden was winning in that poll it would be biased right? Chinese propaganda
Backintheday544 Posted October 31, 2020 Posted October 31, 2020 17 hours ago, Doc Brown said: Republican pollsters like tralafagar got lucky in 2016 because all the undecids broke for Trump at the last second mostly because of Comey opening up the Hillary investigation. Since there's less undecideds this time the polls should be more accurate. I just go with the averages like the midterms. outside of WI, 2016 RCP averages were pretty accurate.
Doc Brown Posted October 31, 2020 Posted October 31, 2020 5 hours ago, Backintheday544 said: outside of WI, 2016 RCP averages were pretty accurate. True. Most states were within the margin of error. The problem wasn't so much the polls but the interpretation of the polls. Again, the major difference this year is Biden getting 49% or above in the polling average because there are less undecideds. Wisconsin is pry the best example of nearly all the undecideds going to Trump. There were the most undecideds in Wisconsin as the rcp average was 46.8% for Clinton and 40.3% for Trump. Trump won 47.2% to 46.7%. Hillary was a weak candidate but people tend to underestimate how bad that Comey letter was for the large amount of undecideds. Pollsters are done if Trump wins these states down four to six points in the averages this time.
Tiberius Posted October 31, 2020 Author Posted October 31, 2020 2 minutes ago, Doc Brown said: True. Most states were within the margin of error. The problem wasn't so much the polls but the interpretation of the polls. Again, the major difference this year is Biden getting 49% or above in the polling average because there are less undecideds. Wisconsin is pry the best example of nearly all the undecideds going to Trump. There were the most undecideds in Wisconsin as the rcp average was 46.8% for Clinton and 40.3% for Trump. Trump won 47.2% to 46.7%. Hillary was a weak candidate but people tend to underestimate how bad that Comey letter was for the large amount of undecideds. Pollsters are done if Trump wins these states down four to six points in the averages this time. Yup, the Comey thing was a terrible blow
Tiberius Posted November 1, 2020 Author Posted November 1, 2020 Just a note, the polls from NC look great for Biden, and that is a spike to the heart of the devil Trump Results Spread Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden NY Times/Siena* Biden 49, Trump 43 Biden +6 Florida: Trump vs. Biden St. Pete Polls Biden 49, Trump 48 Biden +1 Florida: Trump vs. Biden NY Times/Siena* Biden 47, Trump 44 Biden +3 Florida: Trump vs. Biden ABC News/Wash Post* Biden 48, Trump 50 Trump +2 Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden NY Times/Siena* Biden 52, Trump 41 Biden +11 Arizona: Trump vs. Biden NY Times/Siena* Biden 49, Trump 43 Biden +6 Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden ABC News/Wash Post* Biden 51, Trump 44 Biden +7 New Mexico: Trump vs. Biden Albuquerque Journal Biden 54, Trump 42 Biden +12 Arizona Senate - McSally vs. Kelly NY Times/Siena Kelly 50, McSally 43 Kelly +7 New Mexico Senate - Ronchetti vs. Lujan Albuquerque Journal* Lujan 52, Ronchetti 44 Lujan +8
ALF Posted November 1, 2020 Posted November 1, 2020 Pollster who called 2016 for Trump says he'll win again In 2016, Robert Cahaly of The Trafalgar Group used unorthodox polling to correctly predict five swing states and Donald Trump's electoral college tally. Rebuffing skeptics, he says undercounted voters will again elect Trump.Source: CNN https://www.cnn.com/videos/tv/2020/10/31/the-outlier-pollster-who-called-2016-for-trump-says-hell-win-again.cnn
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