SoTier Posted October 15, 2020 Posted October 15, 2020 10 hours ago, Dr. Who said: People know the economy was going gangbusters before Covid. Do people think Biden's stated plan for a continuing and even more severe lockdown along with repealing the Trump tax cuts and tax credits for families, as well as having to accommodate the Green New Deal zealots something that is likely to produce prosperity? I think large numbers of blue collar folks, middle America, Hispanics, and African Americans know Trump's policies work. Not buying the economy is a bad issue for Trump. "It's the economy, stupid" -- defacto campaign slogan for Bill Clinton's 1992 campaign. New unemployment claims have been running about 750-800k weekly since about late August. The unemployment rate is running about 8%. Entire industries like travel and tourism and entertainment have been devastated. Small businesses coast to coast are failing with regularity. In 1928, Republican Herbert Hoover won the presidency in a landslide over Al Smith. In 1932, because of the Great Depression that Hoover couldn't deal with effectively, he lost in an even bigger landslide to Democrat Franklin Roosevelt, and the Republicans didn't win the White House for the next twenty years. The US economy isn't going to significantly improve until the pandemic is brought under control, and Trump has proven incapable and disinterested in doing that. 1
Tiberius Posted October 15, 2020 Author Posted October 15, 2020 1 hour ago, SoTier said: "It's the economy, stupid" -- defacto campaign slogan for Bill Clinton's 1992 campaign. New unemployment claims have been running about 750-800k weekly since about late August. The unemployment rate is running about 8%. Entire industries like travel and tourism and entertainment have been devastated. Small businesses coast to coast are failing with regularity. In 1928, Republican Herbert Hoover won the presidency in a landslide over Al Smith. In 1932, because of the Great Depression that Hoover couldn't deal with effectively, he lost in an even bigger landslide to Democrat Franklin Roosevelt, and the Republicans didn't win the White House for the next twenty years. The US economy isn't going to significantly improve until the pandemic is brought under control, and Trump has proven incapable and disinterested in doing that. What a change! 1
Tiberius Posted October 15, 2020 Author Posted October 15, 2020 WASHINGTON - With less than three weeks to go before Nov. 3, more than 14 million Americans have voted in the fall election, reflecting an extraordinary level of participation despite barriers erected by the coronavirus pandemic - and setting a trajectory that could result in the majority of voters casting ballots before Election Day for the first time in U.S. history. In Georgia this week, voters waited as long as 11 hours to cast their ballots on the first day of early voting. In North Carolina, nearly 1 in 5 of roughly 500,000 who have returned mail ballots did not vote in the last presidential election. In Michigan, more than 1 million people - roughly one-fourth of total turnout in 2016 - have voted. The picture is so stark that election officials across the country are reporting record early turnout, much of it in person, meaning that more results could be available on election night than previously thought. Much of the early voting appears to be driven by heightened enthusiasm among Democrats. Of the roughly 3.5 million voters who have cast ballots in six states that provide partisan breakdowns, registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by roughly 2 to 1, according to a Washington Post analysis of data in Florida, Kentucky, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. Those who have voted include disproportionate numbers of Black voters and women, according to state data - groups that favor former vice president Joe Biden over President Donald Trump in recent polls. https://www.newstimes.com/news/article/Democratic-enthusiasm-propels-early-voting-15648455.php 1
The Frankish Reich Posted October 15, 2020 Posted October 15, 2020 Today's poll releases -- not much for the Repubs to hang their hat on here in this sea of blue ink: Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread Arizona: Trump vs. Biden OH Predictive Insights Biden 50, Trump 47 Biden +3 Arizona: Trump vs. Biden Monmouth* Biden 51, Trump 44 Biden +7 Maine: Trump vs. Biden Pan Atlantic Biden 50, Trump 40 Biden +10 Maine CD2: Trump vs. Biden Pan Atlantic Biden 47, Trump 43 Biden +4 Maine CD1: Trump vs. Biden Pan Atlantic Biden 54, Trump 37 Biden +17 Virginia: Trump vs. Biden Roanoke College* Biden 54, Trump 39 Biden +15 General Election: Trump vs. Biden NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl Biden 53, Trump 42 Biden +11 General Election: Trump vs. Biden vs. Jorgensen vs. Hawkins IBD/TIPP Biden 50, Trump 42, Jorgensen 2, Hawkins 1 Biden +8 Arizona Senate - McSally vs. Kelly OH Predictive Insights Kelly 50, McSally 45 Kelly +5 Arizona Senate - McSally vs. Kelly Monmouth* Kelly 52, McSally 42 Kelly +10 Maine Senate - Collins vs. Gideon Pan Atlantic* Gideon 47, Collins 40 Gideon +7 Michigan Senate - James vs. Peters EPIC-MRA Peters 45, James 39 Peters +6 Virginia Senate - Gade vs. Warner Roanoke College Warner 55, Gade 38 Warner +17 Maine 2nd District - Crafts vs. Golden Pan Atlantic Golden 60, Crafts 33 Golden +27 President Trump Job Approval Rasmussen Reports Approve 47, Disapprove 51 Disapprove +4 President Trump Job Approval NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl Approve 44, Disapprove 54 Disapprove +10 2020 Generic Congressional Vote NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl Democrats 49, Republicans 42 Democrats +7 Direction of Country NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl Right Direction 29, Wrong Track 62 Wrong Track +33 2
Doc Brown Posted October 15, 2020 Posted October 15, 2020 21 hours ago, SoTier said: When the economy is doing poorly, which is the case with the US economy despite to Trump's assertions otherwise, incumbents suffer. Both Carter and Bush 41, the only elected Presidents in the last half century to serve only 1 term were both done in by poor economies. High voter turnout frequently reflects voters' dissatisfaction with the incumbent's performance in office, whether president or governor. It's a different situation as the economy was doing great since at least 2013 and then you had to shut the whole damn thing down because of this virus. It's unprecented. The only advantage Trump has on the polls is who thinks they'll handle the economy better (usually by a few percentage points). The top two concerns are Covid (#1) and the economy (#2). Biden polls double digits better when it comes to who they think would better handle Covid. 16 hours ago, 3rdnlng said: Carter not only lost because the economy sucked but because he was such a pessimist. His idea of fighting the energy crisis was to put on an extra sweater and turn the thermostat down. Reagan was like a breath of fresh air and had his own MAGA program proposed in a much more artful way. Bush 41's economy was turning upward as Clinton with the help of Ross Perot beat him. Without Perot being in the race Bush would have won easily. That's a common myth. People who look at polling for a living make the case that Perot hurt Clinton more. Clinton was just a more skilled politician as Bush road the cotails of Reagan. 1
Backintheday544 Posted October 16, 2020 Posted October 16, 2020 6 hours ago, Doc Brown said: It's a different situation as the economy was doing great since at least 2013 and then you had to shut the whole damn thing down because of this virus. It's unprecented. The only advantage Trump has on the polls is who thinks they'll handle the economy better (usually by a few percentage points). The top two concerns are Covid (#1) and the economy (#2). Biden polls double digits better when it comes to who they think would better handle Covid. That's a common myth. People who look at polling for a living make the case that Perot hurt Clinton more. Clinton was just a more skilled politician as Bush road the cotails of Reagan. On your second point, without numbers, I feel Republicans don't go 3rd party as much historically.
The Frankish Reich Posted October 16, 2020 Posted October 16, 2020 This one is interesting: https://www.npr.org/2020/10/15/923946468/poll-biden-takes-double-digit-lead-over-trump I recall seeing one of these about Biden c. 2008 or 2012 and the leading word was "buffoon" or something like that. Now it's "honest." No wonder Trump is hell-bent on publicizing the Hunter thing. The NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll asked what word comes to mind when thinking about President Trump. "Incompetent" stood out. The NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll asked what word comes to mind when thinking about former Vice President Joe Biden as president. The word "honest" stood out, but there were plenty of negatives too. NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll 1
GETTOTHE50 Posted October 16, 2020 Posted October 16, 2020 joe biden and honesty havent ever even had a cup of tea together.
Backintheday544 Posted October 16, 2020 Posted October 16, 2020 34 minutes ago, GETTOTHE50 said: joe biden and honesty havent ever even had a cup of tea together. This is interesting. This is where I hear the phrase GOProjection a ton. So you say Biden lies. So ok, for sake of argument let's say that's true (he's a politician so probably) but if you support Trump, how can you hold lying against someone else? 1
GETTOTHE50 Posted October 16, 2020 Posted October 16, 2020 36 minutes ago, Backintheday544 said: This is interesting. This is where I hear the phrase GOProjection a ton. So you say Biden lies. So ok, for sake of argument let's say that's true (he's a politician so probably) but if you support Trump, how can you hold lying against someone else? never said trump was mr honest integrity either. but i do think trumps outer voice is the same as his inner voice. cant say that about joe. biden might not even have an inner voice anymore
Backintheday544 Posted October 16, 2020 Posted October 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, GETTOTHE50 said: never said trump was mr honest integrity either. but i do think trumps outer voice is the same as his inner voice. cant say that about joe. biden might not even have an inner voice anymore So what was your point of saying "joe biden and honesty havent ever even had a cup of tea together" Why didn't you comment on Trump's disconnect with reality? What point did you try to prove with the comment quoted above? 1
Warcodered Posted October 16, 2020 Posted October 16, 2020 1 hour ago, GETTOTHE50 said: joe biden and honesty havent ever even had a cup of tea together. Yeah I wouldn't call any politician honest probably more of a thing being directly compared to Trump.
Big Gun Posted October 16, 2020 Posted October 16, 2020 58 minutes ago, Backintheday544 said: This is interesting. This is where I hear the phrase GOProjection a ton. So you say Biden lies. So ok, for sake of argument let's say that's true (he's a politician so probably) but if you support Trump, how can you hold lying against someone else? Name the things Trump has lied about, with proof not just your feelz.
Backintheday544 Posted October 16, 2020 Posted October 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Big Gun said: Name the things Trump has lied about, with proof not just your feelz. 1. Mexico will pay for the wall 2. Insulin is now cheaper than water 3. 2018 mid-terms - vote for me and I have a middle class tax cut 4. I have a health care plan I'm about to release (none released yet) 5. ....more? 1
The Frankish Reich Posted October 16, 2020 Posted October 16, 2020 (edited) My point in pasting the NPR word cloud thing isn't to argue that Biden really is "honest," it's that despite all the criticism of his campaign, he's managed to pull public opinion in that direction. Or maybe it's just that perceptions of honesty are comparative, and here the comparison is Trump. Edited October 16, 2020 by The Frankish Reich 1
Big Gun Posted October 16, 2020 Posted October 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, Backintheday544 said: 1. Mexico will pay for the wall 2. Insulin is now cheaper than water 3. 2018 mid-terms - vote for me and I have a middle class tax cut 4. I have a health care plan I'm about to release (none released yet) 5. ....more? Bravo, now name the things Biden and the Dems have lied about.
Backintheday544 Posted October 16, 2020 Posted October 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Big Gun said: Bravo, now name the things Biden and the Dems have lied about. Can't. I'm too busy moving your goalposts. 1
Warcodered Posted October 16, 2020 Posted October 16, 2020 16 minutes ago, Big Gun said: Name the things Trump has lied about, with proof not just your feelz. The first thing he did when put in office was lie about the size of the crowd at his inauguration, nobody even cared he just couldn't help himself.
Big Gun Posted October 16, 2020 Posted October 16, 2020 40 minutes ago, Backintheday544 said: Can't. I'm too busy moving your goalposts. Of course you wont. You're pathetic.
The Frankish Reich Posted October 16, 2020 Posted October 16, 2020 43 minutes ago, Warcodered said: The first thing he did when put in office was lie about the size of the crowd at his inauguration, nobody even cared he just couldn't help himself. I'd forgotten about that. And then it was immediately followed with the "I really won the popular vote if you take away fraudulent votes." That resulted in the Mike Pence "Voter Integrity Commission" which quietly folded without making any findings at all.
Recommended Posts