aristocrat Posted October 13, 2020 Posted October 13, 2020 What will happen in Wisconsin? Trump flipped it in 16 despite being down quite a bit. That state could decide the election. Or Pennsylvania
Tiberius Posted October 14, 2020 Author Posted October 14, 2020 Results Spread Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden Trafalgar Group (R)* Biden 47, Trump 45 Biden +2 Michigan: Trump vs. Biden Reuters/Ipsos Biden 51, Trump 43 Biden +8 North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden Reuters/Ipsos Biden 48, Trump 47 Biden +1 North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden Monmouth* Biden 50, Trump 46 Biden +4 North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden WRAL-TV/SurveyUSA Biden 50, Trump 45 Biden +5 Florida: Trump vs. Biden Florida Atlantic University Biden 51, Trump 47 Biden +4 Nevada: Trump vs. Biden Las Vegas Review-Journal* Biden 44, Trump 42 Biden +2 New Hampshire: Trump vs. Biden UNH* Biden 55, Trump 43 Biden +12
Backintheday544 Posted October 14, 2020 Posted October 14, 2020 14 hours ago, aristocrat said: What will happen in Wisconsin? Trump flipped it in 16 despite being down quite a bit. That state could decide the election. Or Pennsylvania Trump won Wisconsin by 23,000 votes last time. Gary Johnson and Jill Stein got 138,000 votes in Wisconsin last time, where polling shows those were people most likely to support a Dem candidate not named Hillary. (A lot of 3rd party support in 16 came from people thinking Hilary would win so they could vote 3rd party.) There is no major 3rd party candidate to take Dem votes this time, so Biden should be favored (polls show it as well). The Republicans pushed hard with lawsuits to get Kanye West on the ballot in Wisconsin because of the above. However, Wisconsin's fate my have hung on the several seconds Kanye's republican team was late getting the signatures to the proper place. 2
The Frankish Reich Posted October 14, 2020 Posted October 14, 2020 4 hours ago, Backintheday544 said: Trump won Wisconsin by 23,000 votes last time. Gary Johnson and Jill Stein got 138,000 votes in Wisconsin last time, where polling shows those were people most likely to support a Dem candidate not named Hillary. (A lot of 3rd party support in 16 came from people thinking Hilary would win so they could vote 3rd party.) There is no major 3rd party candidate to take Dem votes this time, so Biden should be favored (polls show it as well). The Republicans pushed hard with lawsuits to get Kanye West on the ballot in Wisconsin because of the above. However, Wisconsin's fate my have hung on the several seconds Kanye's republican team was late getting the signatures to the proper place. Wisconsin was the biggest polling fail of the 2016 state polls. The RCP final average was Clinton +6.5. The actual vote was Trump +0.7 --- a 7-point miss, well outside any poll's margin of error. Digging deeper: (1) Backintheday, I agree. Third parties siphoned off a lot of votes, probably in the "pox on both their houses" way. (2) The RCP final average for Clinton was 46.8%; the actual vote was 46.5%. Dead on accurate. But the final Trump poll was only 40.3%, and he finished at 47.2%. In short, every single "undecided" voter broke for Trump or a 3rd party candidate. (3) Other than 3rd parties not appearing to have much impact his year, the biggest change is where Biden is polling as opposed to Clinton. He is currently at 49.9% in the RCP average, in other words, 3 points better than Clinton was. From experience with Wisconsin, it seems like that's a pretty hard number (remember: Clinton held her Wisconsin vote, there was no late drift away from her). So things are definitely different this time around. And I just got my Colorado ballot and was surprised to see Kanye on there. It's gotten zero attention here.
Backintheday544 Posted October 14, 2020 Posted October 14, 2020 1 hour ago, The Frankish Reich said: Wisconsin was the biggest polling fail of the 2016 state polls. The RCP final average was Clinton +6.5. The actual vote was Trump +0.7 --- a 7-point miss, well outside any poll's margin of error. Digging deeper: (1) Backintheday, I agree. Third parties siphoned off a lot of votes, probably in the "pox on both their houses" way. (2) The RCP final average for Clinton was 46.8%; the actual vote was 46.5%. Dead on accurate. But the final Trump poll was only 40.3%, and he finished at 47.2%. In short, every single "undecided" voter broke for Trump or a 3rd party candidate. (3) Other than 3rd parties not appearing to have much impact his year, the biggest change is where Biden is polling as opposed to Clinton. He is currently at 49.9% in the RCP average, in other words, 3 points better than Clinton was. From experience with Wisconsin, it seems like that's a pretty hard number (remember: Clinton held her Wisconsin vote, there was no late drift away from her). So things are definitely different this time around. And I just got my Colorado ballot and was surprised to see Kanye on there. It's gotten zero attention here. To add on to this, since the undecideds are very few this year's that shouldn't create such a big swing in 2020.
The Frankish Reich Posted October 14, 2020 Posted October 14, 2020 1 hour ago, Backintheday544 said: To add on to this, since the undecideds are very few this year's that shouldn't create such a big swing in 2020. Correct. Looking at the RCP averages in 2016, only 87% stated that they would be voting for Clinton/Trump. So those 13% of undecideds all went to Trump and 3rd party candidates. Right now we're at 49.9 Biden vs. 43.6 Trump, so we have only half as many (6.5%) undecideds/3rd party voters in play.
Doc Brown Posted October 14, 2020 Posted October 14, 2020 Enthusiasm is way up compared to 2016. Not sure if this helps Biden or Trump more. 1
SoTier Posted October 14, 2020 Posted October 14, 2020 1 hour ago, Doc Brown said: Enthusiasm is way up compared to 2016. Not sure if this helps Biden or Trump more. When the economy is doing poorly, which is the case with the US economy despite to Trump's assertions otherwise, incumbents suffer. Both Carter and Bush 41, the only elected Presidents in the last half century to serve only 1 term were both done in by poor economies. High voter turnout frequently reflects voters' dissatisfaction with the incumbent's performance in office, whether president or governor.
aristocrat Posted October 15, 2020 Posted October 15, 2020 https://www.google.com/amp/s/fortune.com/2020/10/14/polls-trump-biden-presidential-race-artificial-intelligence/amp/ this is interesting
shoshin Posted October 15, 2020 Posted October 15, 2020 Is there a thread anywhere about who confidently predicted Hillary to win in 2016? People must have dedicated tons of bandwidth to the easy Clinton victory. Be fun to see who was posting a ton about this and sharing confident forecasts. Search engine for Trump and Clinton turns up way too much noise.
RiotAct Posted October 15, 2020 Posted October 15, 2020 15 minutes ago, aristocrat said: https://www.google.com/amp/s/fortune.com/2020/10/14/polls-trump-biden-presidential-race-artificial-intelligence/amp/ this is interesting you know who else was strongly associated with “action”??? HITLER
Backintheday544 Posted October 15, 2020 Posted October 15, 2020 4 hours ago, SoTier said: When the economy is doing poorly, which is the case with the US economy despite to Trump's assertions otherwise, incumbents suffer. Both Carter and Bush 41, the only elected Presidents in the last half century to serve only 1 term were both done in by poor economies. High voter turnout frequently reflects voters' dissatisfaction with the incumbent's performance in office, whether president or governor. Seems like the issue with online reviews. People are more likely to leave a negative review than a positive one. 1
3rdnlng Posted October 15, 2020 Posted October 15, 2020 5 hours ago, SoTier said: When the economy is doing poorly, which is the case with the US economy despite to Trump's assertions otherwise, incumbents suffer. Both Carter and Bush 41, the only elected Presidents in the last half century to serve only 1 term were both done in by poor economies. High voter turnout frequently reflects voters' dissatisfaction with the incumbent's performance in office, whether president or governor. Carter not only lost because the economy sucked but because he was such a pessimist. His idea of fighting the energy crisis was to put on an extra sweater and turn the thermostat down. Reagan was like a breath of fresh air and had his own MAGA program proposed in a much more artful way. Bush 41's economy was turning upward as Clinton with the help of Ross Perot beat him. Without Perot being in the race Bush would have won easily.
Dr. Who Posted October 15, 2020 Posted October 15, 2020 1 minute ago, 3rdnlng said: Carter not only lost because the economy sucked but because he was such a pessimist. His idea of fighting the energy crisis was to put on an extra sweater and turn the thermostat down. Reagan was like a breath of fresh air and had his own MAGA program proposed in a much more artful way. Bush 41's economy was turning upward as Clinton with the help of Ross Perot beat him. Without Perot being in the race Bush would have won easily. People know the economy was going gangbusters before Covid. Do people think Biden's stated plan for a continuing and even more severe lockdown along with repealing the Trump tax cuts and tax credits for families, as well as having to accommodate the Green New Deal zealots something that is likely to produce prosperity? I think large numbers of blue collar folks, middle America, Hispanics, and African Americans know Trump's policies work. Not buying the economy is a bad issue for Trump. 1
3rdnlng Posted October 15, 2020 Posted October 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, Dr. Who said: People know the economy was going gangbusters before Covid. Do people think Biden's stated plan for a continuing and even more severe lockdown along with repealing the Trump tax cuts and tax credits for families, as well as having to accommodate the Green New Deal zealots something that is likely to produce prosperity? I think large numbers of blue collar folks, middle America, Hispanics, and African Americans know Trump's policies work. Not buying the economy is a bad issue for Trump. If they are paying attention and not listening to the advertising going on with the hundreds of millions of dollars supplied to the DNC by mega donors then yes, Trump may win. Trump is pragmatic and a bulldog. There's no doubt in my mind that he will get the economy going again. Joe would ***** it up like everything he has done throughout his whole life. 1 1 1
Backintheday544 Posted October 15, 2020 Posted October 15, 2020 4 hours ago, Dr. Who said: People know the economy was going gangbusters before Covid. Do people think Biden's stated plan for a continuing and even more severe lockdown along with repealing the Trump tax cuts and tax credits for families, as well as having to accommodate the Green New Deal zealots something that is likely to produce prosperity? I think large numbers of blue collar folks, middle America, Hispanics, and African Americans know Trump's policies work. Not buying the economy is a bad issue for Trump. Yes they do. Golan Sachs even modelled that a blue wave would be better for the economy than a Trump win: https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-biden-blue-wave-boost-growth-goldman-sachs-2020-10-1029649255 Getting back on topic, 538's model now has Biden at an 87 percent chance of victory https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ For reference, Hilary was about a 70 percent change on election night in 2016.
shoshin Posted October 15, 2020 Posted October 15, 2020 9 hours ago, Backintheday544 said: Seems like the issue with online reviews. People are more likely to leave a negative review than a positive one. The issue with online conversations. Negative insults >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> respectful discussion.
Tiberius Posted October 15, 2020 Author Posted October 15, 2020 16 hours ago, Doc Brown said: Enthusiasm is way up compared to 2016. Not sure if this helps Biden or Trump more. Low turn out was a key to Trump's win in 2016
SoTier Posted October 15, 2020 Posted October 15, 2020 22 minutes ago, Tiberius said: Low turn out was a key to Trump's win in 2016 Plus significant votes for third party candidates in some states that cost Hillary battleground states like Wisconsin. 1
SoTier Posted October 15, 2020 Posted October 15, 2020 (edited) 12 hours ago, aristocrat said: https://www.google.com/amp/s/fortune.com/2020/10/14/polls-trump-biden-presidential-race-artificial-intelligence/amp/ this is interesting It's an interesting approach but it doesn't mean a whole lot for the actual election unless it accounts for where these social media posts are coming from, which I don't think it can do on Twitter or FB or other social media. Hillary won the popular vote in 2016 by nearly 3 million votes but lost in the Electoral College 304 to 227, so I'm not sure how the advocates for this approach can make the claim that their way would have better predicted a Trump win. In a direct election where popular vote is all that matters, this method might be a valid polling approach, but not in US presidential elections where it's not necessarily how many votes a candidates wins but in what states he or she wins them that counts. Edited October 15, 2020 by SoTier
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