H2o Posted October 11, 2020 Posted October 11, 2020 Still think the polls are legit? And this is not the first instance either, just the latest.
meazza Posted October 11, 2020 Posted October 11, 2020 3 hours ago, BillsFanNC said: FIFY An FBI lawyer, Kevin Clinesmith, has pleaded guilty to altering evidence in order to secure a renewed FISA warrant. It happened. No amount of spinning can change this fact. Again, this shouldn't be a partisan issue. If they can do it to Trump and his associates they can most definitely do it to you, me or any other American. https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/512750-clinesmith-pleads-guilty-in-first-criminal-case-stemming-from-durham They did it to Richard jewell 1 1
Backintheday544 Posted October 11, 2020 Posted October 11, 2020 1 hour ago, H2o said: Still think the polls are legit? And this is not the first instance either, just the latest. Please describe the correlation of people showing up to events in a pandemic to showing voter turn out? We literally have hard data on voter turnout already from early voting and mail in ballots and it's been overwhelmingly Democrat. 1
H2o Posted October 11, 2020 Posted October 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, Backintheday544 said: Please describe the correlation of people showing up to events in a pandemic to showing voter turn out? We literally have hard data on voter turnout already from early voting and mail in ballots and it's been overwhelmingly Democrat. 👌 1
KD in CA Posted October 11, 2020 Posted October 11, 2020 I see the media is dusting off the "if we keep saying Trump is going to lose by a mile maybe his supporters won't show up to vote" strategy. I wonder if they've fine tuned it since 2016.
Backintheday544 Posted October 11, 2020 Posted October 11, 2020 55 minutes ago, H2o said: 👌 45 minutes ago, KD in CA said: I see the media is dusting off the "if we keep saying Trump is going to lose by a mile maybe his supporters won't show up to vote" strategy. I wonder if they've fine tuned it since 2016. That's the thing. The media can say what they want, but actual ballots coming in are showing Democrats and Republicans aren't. I mean it's not a huge surprise, the polls showed Dems would early vote more than Republicans, but not by the margins: Americans are voting early in the 2020 general election at an unprecedented pace, with elections officials having already received more than 9 million ballots in the 30 states that have made data available, and that data indicates that registered Democrats have returned more than twice as many ballots than Republicans thus far https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/520306-democrats-surge-past-republicans-in-early-voting In Florida, registered Democrats had out-voted registered Republicans by a slim 37 percent to 35 percent margin by this point in 2016. Today, almost 53 percent of votes cast in Florida have come from registered Democrats, while Republicans account for just 28 percent In North Carolina, registered Democrats have cast 52 percent of all ballots so far, up from 36 percent four years ago. Registered Republicans account for just 17 percent of the ballots, down from 37 percent in 2016. And in Pennsylvania, a state at the heart of Trump's reelection strategy, registered Democrats have cast more than three-quarters of all ballots. Republicans made up just 15 percent of ballots returned to date. 1
Backintheday544 Posted October 11, 2020 Posted October 11, 2020 8 minutes ago, Unforgiven said: RIP Herman Cain. If only you didn't go to that Trump rally with no masks and no social distancing. 1
KD in CA Posted October 12, 2020 Posted October 12, 2020 1 hour ago, Backintheday544 said: That's the thing. The media can say what they want, but actual ballots coming in are showing Democrats and Republicans aren't. I mean it's not a huge surprise, the polls showed Dems would early vote more than Republicans, but not by the margins: Americans are voting early in the 2020 general election at an unprecedented pace, with elections officials having already received more than 9 million ballots in the 30 states that have made data available, and that data indicates that registered Democrats have returned more than twice as many ballots than Republicans thus far https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/520306-democrats-surge-past-republicans-in-early-voting In Florida, registered Democrats had out-voted registered Republicans by a slim 37 percent to 35 percent margin by this point in 2016. Today, almost 53 percent of votes cast in Florida have come from registered Democrats, while Republicans account for just 28 percent In North Carolina, registered Democrats have cast 52 percent of all ballots so far, up from 36 percent four years ago. Registered Republicans account for just 17 percent of the ballots, down from 37 percent in 2016. And in Pennsylvania, a state at the heart of Trump's reelection strategy, registered Democrats have cast more than three-quarters of all ballots. Republicans made up just 15 percent of ballots returned to date. I guess we'll see if that means there are more Dem voters in total. It seems like mailing in your ballot is the cool, "Resist", TDS thing to do this year for all the leftist sheep (at least where I live). I have no idea what's going to happen, have had this election a 50/50 toss-up for many weeks and don't see that changing. The only thing that is for certain is, we're being lied to by the media, day and night. 2 1
SoTier Posted October 12, 2020 Posted October 12, 2020 13 hours ago, Backintheday544 said: That's the thing. The media can say what they want, but actual ballots coming in are showing Democrats and Republicans aren't. I mean it's not a huge surprise, the polls showed Dems would early vote more than Republicans, but not by the margins: Americans are voting early in the 2020 general election at an unprecedented pace, with elections officials having already received more than 9 million ballots in the 30 states that have made data available, and that data indicates that registered Democrats have returned more than twice as many ballots than Republicans thus far https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/520306-democrats-surge-past-republicans-in-early-voting In Florida, registered Democrats had out-voted registered Republicans by a slim 37 percent to 35 percent margin by this point in 2016. Today, almost 53 percent of votes cast in Florida have come from registered Democrats, while Republicans account for just 28 percent In North Carolina, registered Democrats have cast 52 percent of all ballots so far, up from 36 percent four years ago. Registered Republicans account for just 17 percent of the ballots, down from 37 percent in 2016. And in Pennsylvania, a state at the heart of Trump's reelection strategy, registered Democrats have cast more than three-quarters of all ballots. Republicans made up just 15 percent of ballots returned to date. There are a couple of things that these stats suggest: 1) Many registered Republicans are going to stay on the sidelines this election cycle 2) Trump's attempts to suppress the mail-in/absentee vote looks to be blowing up in his face: mail in voting is not only significantly up in every state that has it, but it also seems to be suppressing Republican mail in voting while increasing Democratic mail-in voting. 12 hours ago, KD in CA said: I guess we'll see if that means there are more Dem voters in total. It seems like mailing in your ballot is the cool, "Resist", TDS thing to do this year for all the leftist sheep (at least where I live). I have no idea what's going to happen, have had this election a 50/50 toss-up for many weeks and don't see that changing. The only thing that is for certain is, we're being lied to by the media, day and night. Why is the media lying? Because you don't like what you're hearing? This election is a referendum on Covid Donnie's handling of the coronavirus and its effects on the US economy, and Trump's approval ratings on both are terrible. Incumbents don't win re-election when the unemployment rate hovers in the 8-10%, especially when the POTUS bleats that the economy is doing "great" because the stock market is up. 1
Tiberius Posted October 12, 2020 Author Posted October 12, 2020 15 hours ago, KD in CA said: I see the media is dusting off the "if we keep saying Trump is going to lose by a mile maybe his supporters won't show up to vote" strategy. I wonder if they've fine tuned it since 2016. This is really dumb. “The media”??? Huh? So you are claiming their is a conspiracy on the part of all the news organizations to gang up on you? Tin foil hat
Tiberius Posted October 12, 2020 Author Posted October 12, 2020 16 hours ago, H2o said: Still think the polls are legit? And this is not the first instance either, just the latest. So you think you are being deliberately lied to by “The Media”
Backintheday544 Posted October 12, 2020 Posted October 12, 2020 38 minutes ago, SoTier said: There are a couple of things that these stats suggest: 1) Many registered Republicans are going to stay on the sidelines this election cycle 2) Trump's attempts to suppress the mail-in/absentee vote looks to be blowing up in his face: mail in voting is not only significantly up in every state that has it, but it also seems to be suppressing Republican mail in voting while increasing Democratic mail-in voting. Why is the media lying? Because you don't like what you're hearing? This election is a referendum on Covid Donnie's handling of the coronavirus and its effects on the US economy, and Trump's approval ratings on both are terrible. Incumbents don't win re-election when the unemployment rate hovers in the 8-10%, especially when the POTUS bleats that the economy is doing "great" because the stock market is up. That's a good point I never thought about. I think a majority of Dems have tuned out Trump and understand his lies vs what's real. Republicans still listen to him. So with that in mind, it wouldn't see surprising to see Democrats vote early in the same manner and the Republican vote actually end up being supressed. 1
Tiberius Posted October 12, 2020 Author Posted October 12, 2020 More polls from "The Media" General Election: Trump vs. Biden IBD/TIPP Biden 53, Trump 42 Biden +11 General Election: Trump vs. Biden vs. Jorgensen vs. Hawkins IBD/TIPP Biden 52, Trump 43, Jorgensen 2, Hawkins 1 Biden +9 Montana: Trump vs. Biden PPP (D) Trump 52, Biden 46 Trump +6 Arizona Senate - McSally vs. Kelly Trafalgar Group (R) Kelly 47, McSally 45 Kelly +2
The Frankish Reich Posted October 13, 2020 Posted October 13, 2020 https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/520627-good-bad-and-ugly-making-sense-of-the-polls A very good, fair article, echoing some of the things we've been saying here -- not all polls are created equal, watch the sample sizes and turnout models, etc. Interesting take on Rasmussen for example: Rassmussen — long considered a pro-Trump and GOP polling firm — has consistently shown better numbers for Trump over the past four years. But Rassmussen reports only “likely voters” not just registered voters, which tends to favor Trump. Rassmussen likely has a model that thinks more Republican voters will turn out. However, without the crosstabs, we cannot be certain. Recent Rassmussen polling has turned sharply against Trump, going from a 48-47 percent Biden advantage on Sept. 22 to a 52-40 percent advantage on Oct. 6. Although Trump has been losing ground, that’s a big move, and my bet is that Rassmussen adjusted its turnout model. If so, credit Rassmussen for changing its methodology to reflect how it sees the race unfolding. But it would help if it would make public its sampling composition.
aristocrat Posted October 13, 2020 Posted October 13, 2020 Trump has got to win Wisconsin or pa to take it
Bakin Posted October 13, 2020 Posted October 13, 2020 15 hours ago, Tiberius said: So you think you are being deliberately lied to by “The Media” You are being lied to. If you don’t know it yet, you are an utter moron. The MSM has been solidly anti Trump since 2015 when he ran as a Republican. Is this even news?
Big Blitz Posted October 13, 2020 Posted October 13, 2020 The Biden up by 12! Polls are "the media's" response to the massive enthusiasm gap and they're just continuing to do what they've been doing since March. Lie.
Doc Brown Posted October 13, 2020 Posted October 13, 2020 On 10/11/2020 at 6:20 PM, Backintheday544 said: That's the thing. The media can say what they want, but actual ballots coming in are showing Democrats and Republicans aren't. I mean it's not a huge surprise, the polls showed Dems would early vote more than Republicans, but not by the margins: Americans are voting early in the 2020 general election at an unprecedented pace, with elections officials having already received more than 9 million ballots in the 30 states that have made data available, and that data indicates that registered Democrats have returned more than twice as many ballots than Republicans thus far https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/520306-democrats-surge-past-republicans-in-early-voting In Florida, registered Democrats had out-voted registered Republicans by a slim 37 percent to 35 percent margin by this point in 2016. Today, almost 53 percent of votes cast in Florida have come from registered Democrats, while Republicans account for just 28 percent In North Carolina, registered Democrats have cast 52 percent of all ballots so far, up from 36 percent four years ago. Registered Republicans account for just 17 percent of the ballots, down from 37 percent in 2016. And in Pennsylvania, a state at the heart of Trump's reelection strategy, registered Democrats have cast more than three-quarters of all ballots. Republicans made up just 15 percent of ballots returned to date. This is all baked into the polls. Early voting numbers don't matter whatsoever. 2 hours ago, Big Blitz said: The Biden up by 12! Polls are "the media's" response to the massive enthusiasm gap and they're just continuing to do what they've been doing since March. Lie. One caveat to this is she lost about three points nationally right after Comey came out with the October surprise of Weiner's laptop. Trump will win NC again though. If Trump is within four points of the state poll average I just assume he'll win.
Backintheday544 Posted October 13, 2020 Posted October 13, 2020 5 hours ago, Big Blitz said: The Biden up by 12! Polls are "the media's" response to the massive enthusiasm gap and they're just continuing to do what they've been doing since March. Lie. These numbers are comparing 10/10 to the actual. The entire 2016 saw a ton of movement, see here: The 2020 election has not seen anything like above. It's been relatively flat for Biden and Trump. Plus don't forget there was a big swing in votes after the Comey election. 3 hours ago, Doc Brown said: This is all baked into the polls. Early voting numbers don't matter whatsoever. One caveat to this is she lost about three points nationally right after Comey came out with the October surprise of Weiner's laptop. Trump will win NC again though. If Trump is within four points of the state poll average I just assume he'll win. I would agree with you on early voting numbers in any other year. However, a much larger set of the population is early voting than ever before due to COVID. NC I think goes Trump of any of the swing states.
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