3rdnlng Posted September 25, 2020 Posted September 25, 2020 7 minutes ago, Dr. Who said: Folks that can say Kamala Harris is a moderate with a straight face aren't going to be impressed with evidence the polls are skewed to over represent Democratic voters. Nor will they concede that their mob mentality intimidation is likely to cause many Trump voters to simply run silent. Then they go boohoo when the actual election proves that their propoganda efforts are not an effective measure of what the American people think and believe. Poll after poll shows that basically 25% of republicans are included in each poll while about 35% of democrats make up those polls. Taking into consideration that conservatives do not like to be queried regarding their political preferences and many people don't like to admit their preference for Trump, the polls are badly skewed. Once again, foolish democrats have tricked themselves. 1
Taro T Posted September 25, 2020 Posted September 25, 2020 52 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said: Poll after poll shows that basically 25% of republicans are included in each poll while about 35% of democrats make up those polls. Taking into consideration that conservatives do not like to be queried regarding their political preferences and many people don't like to admit their preference for Trump, the polls are badly skewed. Once again, foolish democrats have tricked themselves. In an ordinary election, would agree w/ you. But considering it appears pretty clear that the D's plan to manufacture a post-election win via "finding" mail-in ballots, they need that oversampling to get people to believe the polls were accurate and all those ballots miraculously appearing after the game's been played are legit & not a repeat of Al Franken's playback. 1
3rdnlng Posted September 25, 2020 Posted September 25, 2020 1 minute ago, Taro T said: In an ordinary election, would agree w/ you. But considering it appears pretty clear that the D's plan to manufacture a post-election win via "finding" mail-in ballots, they need that oversampling to get people to believe the polls were accurate and all those ballots miraculously appearing after the game's been played are legit & not a repeat of Al Franken's playback. There's that too. 1 1
Backintheday544 Posted September 26, 2020 Posted September 26, 2020 10 hours ago, 3rdnlng said: Poll after poll shows that basically 25% of republicans are included in each poll while about 35% of democrats make up those polls. Taking into consideration that conservatives do not like to be queried regarding their political preferences and many people don't like to admit their preference for Trump, the polls are badly skewed. Once again, foolish democrats have tricked themselves. I don't know if you know this, but you can actually look at the polls and the sampling. 538's latest polls is really good because you can see a poll and click on it and see the sampling: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/ I clicked like 10 of the latest and didn't see any sampling that you suggested. Here's a recent MN one from Suffolk University. https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/other-states/2020/9_25_2020_marginals_pdftxt.pdf?la=en&hash=EA09FFF4A22FBF2A04A6A5776C86103A990C9C6A Has Biden 47, Trump 40. With rounding it was 40 Dem/36 Republican. Click any of the others, there's not any I saw with a 35/25 split. A couple things on polls: 1. People say polls were way off in 2016. If you look state by state, most ended up being close and within the margin of error. 2. Look at RCPs averages in 2016, there were huge fluctuations between Trump and Hilary during the campaign. In 2020, everything has been pretty steady for Bidens lead. There really have not been a lot of fluctuations, especially compared to 2016 and how much that changed day to day. 3. To points 1 and 2, I think during 2016, we saw almost all the undecideds go for Trump (I think the actual split was like 90/10 Trump). The issue with this election is there are not many undecides. Someone posted a couple pages ago about how a survey showed Florida undecides were going heavily for Trump. When you pull the actual survey, undecides made up 3 percent of the population. I can see that being true as it seems hard to think there is the level of undecides. I mean really, who doesn't have one opinion or another of Trump by now? In 2016, we saw far more undecides at this point. 4. Polls were pretty accurate on the 2018 blue wave.
The Frankish Reich Posted September 26, 2020 Posted September 26, 2020 2 hours ago, Backintheday544 said: I don't know if you know this, but you can actually look at the polls and the sampling. 538's latest polls is really good because you can see a poll and click on it and see the sampling: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/ I clicked like 10 of the latest and didn't see any sampling that you suggested. Here's a recent MN one from Suffolk University. https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/other-states/2020/9_25_2020_marginals_pdftxt.pdf?la=en&hash=EA09FFF4A22FBF2A04A6A5776C86103A990C9C6A Has Biden 47, Trump 40. With rounding it was 40 Dem/36 Republican. Click any of the others, there's not any I saw with a 35/25 split. A couple things on polls: 1. People say polls were way off in 2016. If you look state by state, most ended up being close and within the margin of error. 2. Look at RCPs averages in 2016, there were huge fluctuations between Trump and Hilary during the campaign. In 2020, everything has been pretty steady for Bidens lead. There really have not been a lot of fluctuations, especially compared to 2016 and how much that changed day to day. 3. To points 1 and 2, I think during 2016, we saw almost all the undecideds go for Trump (I think the actual split was like 90/10 Trump). The issue with this election is there are not many undecides. Someone posted a couple pages ago about how a survey showed Florida undecides were going heavily for Trump. When you pull the actual survey, undecides made up 3 percent of the population. I can see that being true as it seems hard to think there is the level of undecides. I mean really, who doesn't have one opinion or another of Trump by now? In 2016, we saw far more undecides at this point. 4. Polls were pretty accurate on the 2018 blue wave. Thank you for doing the work and dispelling the wishful thinking poll analysis that's all too common.
3rdnlng Posted September 26, 2020 Posted September 26, 2020 12 hours ago, Backintheday544 said: I don't know if you know this, but you can actually look at the polls and the sampling. 538's latest polls is really good because you can see a poll and click on it and see the sampling: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/ I clicked like 10 of the latest and didn't see any sampling that you suggested. Here's a recent MN one from Suffolk University. https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/other-states/2020/9_25_2020_marginals_pdftxt.pdf?la=en&hash=EA09FFF4A22FBF2A04A6A5776C86103A990C9C6A Has Biden 47, Trump 40. With rounding it was 40 Dem/36 Republican. Click any of the others, there's not any I saw with a 35/25 split. A couple things on polls: 1. People say polls were way off in 2016. If you look state by state, most ended up being close and within the margin of error. 2. Look at RCPs averages in 2016, there were huge fluctuations between Trump and Hilary during the campaign. In 2020, everything has been pretty steady for Bidens lead. There really have not been a lot of fluctuations, especially compared to 2016 and how much that changed day to day. 3. To points 1 and 2, I think during 2016, we saw almost all the undecideds go for Trump (I think the actual split was like 90/10 Trump). The issue with this election is there are not many undecides. Someone posted a couple pages ago about how a survey showed Florida undecides were going heavily for Trump. When you pull the actual survey, undecides made up 3 percent of the population. I can see that being true as it seems hard to think there is the level of undecides. I mean really, who doesn't have one opinion or another of Trump by now? In 2016, we saw far more undecides at this point. 4. Polls were pretty accurate on the 2018 blue wave. From your link: 31. Just your best guess. When all the votes are counted for president this November, who do you think is most likely to be elected president – {ROTATE} Joe Biden or Donald Trump? (N=500) n % Joe Biden-------------------------------------------------- 198 39.60 Donald Trump -------------------------------------------- 227 45.40 Undecided---------------------------------------------------70 14.00 Refused--------------------------------------------------------5 1.00 You pick Minnesota, a state that hasn't gone for a republican for president in many decades. Does it not concern you that the numbers in this poll give Biden a substantial lead but the people who believe Trump will beat Biden lead by 6%? Also, when the polls call states like Ohio and Texas "purple" it makes me wonder if there's any sense of reality amongst the poll takers or if they are just trying to manipulate voter sentiment. -)
Tiberius Posted September 26, 2020 Author Posted September 26, 2020 23 hours ago, 3rdnlng said: Poll after poll shows that basically 25% of republicans are included in each poll while about 35% of democrats make up those polls. Taking into consideration that conservatives do not like to be queried regarding their political preferences and many people don't like to admit their preference for Trump, the polls are badly skewed. Once again, foolish democrats have tricked themselves. Poll after poll says poll after poll are wrong, lol!!! Keep up the good work! 😂
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted September 26, 2020 Posted September 26, 2020 29 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said: From your link: 31. Just your best guess. When all the votes are counted for president this November, who do you think is most likely to be elected president – {ROTATE} Joe Biden or Donald Trump? (N=500) n % Joe Biden-------------------------------------------------- 198 39.60 Donald Trump -------------------------------------------- 227 45.40 Undecided---------------------------------------------------70 14.00 Refused--------------------------------------------------------5 1.00 You pick Minnesota, a state that hasn't gone for a republican for president in many decades. Does it not concern you that the numbers in this poll give Biden a substantial lead but the people who believe Trump will beat Biden lead by 6%? Also, when the polls call states like Ohio and Texas "purple" it makes me wonder if there's any sense of reality amongst the poll takers or if they are just trying to manipulate voter sentiment. -) ......BTW.....registered and eligible voter for 49 years and have NEVER received a call from a pollster..............
Backintheday544 Posted September 26, 2020 Posted September 26, 2020 9 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said: From your link: 31. Just your best guess. When all the votes are counted for president this November, who do you think is most likely to be elected president – {ROTATE} Joe Biden or Donald Trump? (N=500) n % Joe Biden-------------------------------------------------- 198 39.60 Donald Trump -------------------------------------------- 227 45.40 Undecided---------------------------------------------------70 14.00 Refused--------------------------------------------------------5 1.00 You pick Minnesota, a state that hasn't gone for a republican for president in many decades. Does it not concern you that the numbers in this poll give Biden a substantial lead but the people who believe Trump will beat Biden lead by 6%? Also, when the polls call states like Ohio and Texas "purple" it makes me wonder if there's any sense of reality amongst the poll takers or if they are just trying to manipulate voter sentiment. -) I just picked MN because it was the first state poll listed at the time. 538 had a good discussion in May about Bidens lead in the polls but Americans thinking Trump will win: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/if-trump-is-down-in-the-polls-why-do-so-many-americans-think-hell-win/ I haven't looked much at Ohio. Texas makes sense to be purple now. Just look at 2018 with Cruz/Beto election. Beto came within 200,000 votes of winning the Senate seat. Texas is a state where the demographics are changing and have been for some time. Here's the latest TX poll that is out: https://filesforprogress.org/memos/student-debt-project-electoral.pdf Trump is up 46/45 and 9 percent undecided. It doesn't give a breakdown of who was polled, but it gives the generic ballot breakdown with 46 percent saying Republican, 41 percent saying Democrat. Historically, undecideds at this point are not overly likely to vote so it's definitely in play this year for the Democrats. The other Texas polls have similar results so it's not an outlier. I think the other concerning thing on the Republican side is how Biden is doing better in each battleground state than Clinton: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/2020_elections_electoral_college_map.html PA - Clinton was +1.8, Biden is +4.3 WI - Clinton was +5, Biden is +6.6 OH - Trump was +2, Biden is +3.3 NV - Trump was +0.2, Biden is +7.5 AZ - Trump was +3, Biden is +3.2 If you're unfamiliar with the site, they look at polling averages, which should help drown out some static from different sampling populations.
Tiberius Posted September 27, 2020 Author Posted September 27, 2020 General Election: Trump vs. Biden ABC News/Wash Post Biden 54, Trump 44 Biden +10 1
Backintheday544 Posted September 27, 2020 Posted September 27, 2020 1 hour ago, Tiberius said: General Election: Trump vs. Biden ABC News/Wash Post Biden 54, Trump 44 Biden +10 This has a great breakdown of the differences in the 2016 polls vs 2020: https://mobile.twitter.com/NoTeamsIndy/status/1308381040940126208 The other interesting note is possibility of over-sampling Republicans to try to fix mistakes made in 2016.
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted September 27, 2020 Posted September 27, 2020 (edited) 33 minutes ago, Backintheday544 said: This has a great breakdown of the differences in the 2016 polls vs 2020: https://mobile.twitter.com/NoTeamsIndy/status/1308381040940126208 The other interesting note is possibility of over-sampling Republicans to try to fix mistakes made in 2016. ....did you EVER think that revealing your political views would lead to threats of violence, property destruction, ACTUAL assaults, harassment et al IN YOUR LIFETIME?......would you HONESTLY reveal your political views in such a threatening climate?....and it does NOT stop at you.......bet your spouse and entire family are at risk.......we are sinking further by the nanosecond....what is even sadder is that it is condoned.............. Edited September 27, 2020 by OldTimeAFLGuy
Tiberius Posted September 28, 2020 Author Posted September 28, 2020 Poll Results Spread General Election: Trump vs. Biden NY Times/Siena Biden 49, Trump 41 Biden +8 General Election: Trump vs. Biden ABC News/Wash Post Biden 54, Trump 44 Biden +10 General Election: Trump vs. Biden vs. Jorgensen vs. Hawkins ABC News/Wash Post Biden 49, Trump 43, Jorgensen 4, Hawkins 3 Biden +6 Nevada: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Biden 49, Trump 48 Biden +1 North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden CBS News/YouGov Biden 48, Trump 46 Biden +2 Georgia: Trump vs. Biden CBS News/YouGov Trump 47, Biden 46 Trump +1 South Carolina: Trump vs. Biden CBS News/YouGov Trump 52, Biden 42 Trump +10 Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden TIPP Biden 50, Trump 45 Biden +5 Michigan: Trump vs. Biden NBC News/Marist Biden 52, Trump 44 Biden +8 Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden NBC News/Marist Biden 54, Trump 44 Biden +10 Michigan Senate - James vs. Peters NBC News/Marist Peters 49, James 44 Peters +5 North Carolina Senate - Tillis vs. Cunningham CBS News/YouGov Cunningham 48, Tillis 38 Cunningham +10 Georgia Senate - Perdue vs. Ossoff CBS News/YouGov Perdue 47, Ossoff 42 Perdue +5 South Carolina Senate - Graham vs. Harrison CBS News/YouGov Graham 45, Harrison 44 Graham +1
Backintheday544 Posted September 28, 2020 Posted September 28, 2020 On 9/27/2020 at 10:00 AM, OldTimeAFLGuy said: ....did you EVER think that revealing your political views would lead to threats of violence, property destruction, ACTUAL assaults, harassment et al IN YOUR LIFETIME?......would you HONESTLY reveal your political views in such a threatening climate?....and it does NOT stop at you.......bet your spouse and entire family are at risk.......we are sinking further by the nanosecond....what is even sadder is that it is condoned.............. Then you decline to take the poll. The pollster says thank you for your time and they move on to the next person. What makes you think the people declining are overwhelming Trump supporters? Looking at the country, Trump supporters appear to be the loud minority. What makes you think the sample is too small to make up for people declining to answer? 1
Deranged Rhino Posted September 28, 2020 Posted September 28, 2020 10 minutes ago, Backintheday544 said: Then you decline to take the poll. The pollster says thank you for your time and they move on to the next person. What makes you think the people declining are overwhelming Trump supporters? Looking at the country, Trump supporters appear to be the loud minority. What makes you think the sample is too small to make up for people declining to answer? You've got this backwards and upside down.
The Frankish Reich Posted September 28, 2020 Posted September 28, 2020 (edited) 23 minutes ago, Tiberius said: Poll Results Spread General Election: Trump vs. Biden NY Times/Siena Biden 49, Trump 41 Biden +8 General Election: Trump vs. Biden ABC News/Wash Post Biden 54, Trump 44 Biden +10 General Election: Trump vs. Biden vs. Jorgensen vs. Hawkins ABC News/Wash Post Biden 49, Trump 43, Jorgensen 4, Hawkins 3 Biden +6 Nevada: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Biden 49, Trump 48 Biden +1 North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden CBS News/YouGov Biden 48, Trump 46 Biden +2 Georgia: Trump vs. Biden CBS News/YouGov Trump 47, Biden 46 Trump +1 South Carolina: Trump vs. Biden CBS News/YouGov Trump 52, Biden 42 Trump +10 Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden TIPP Biden 50, Trump 45 Biden +5 Michigan: Trump vs. Biden NBC News/Marist Biden 52, Trump 44 Biden +8 Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden NBC News/Marist Biden 54, Trump 44 Biden +10 Michigan Senate - James vs. Peters NBC News/Marist Peters 49, James 44 Peters +5 North Carolina Senate - Tillis vs. Cunningham CBS News/YouGov Cunningham 48, Tillis 38 Cunningham +10 Georgia Senate - Perdue vs. Ossoff CBS News/YouGov Perdue 47, Ossoff 42 Perdue +5 South Carolina Senate - Graham vs. Harrison CBS News/YouGov Graham 45, Harrison 44 Graham +1 And again ... the most stable race/lead in modern polling history. I can't really think of anything that could change the dynamic other than an epic disaster by Biden tomorrow night - something on the order of the Rick Perry "I'm going to eliminate 3 federal departments, namely, umm, umm, never mind" variety. Could happen, hasn't in any previous performances, and Trump is weirdly already trying to explain away a minimally successful performance by talking about PEDs. (Ask yourself: did anyone ever accuse Reggie Bush or Kelvin Benjamin of being on PEDs with the Bills? That's what you do when an old guy unexpectedly overperforms, like comeback James Harrison) Edited September 28, 2020 by The Frankish Reich 1 1
Deranged Rhino Posted September 28, 2020 Posted September 28, 2020 Just now, The Frankish Reich said: And again ... the most stable race/lead in modern polling history.
Backintheday544 Posted September 28, 2020 Posted September 28, 2020 11 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said: You've got this backwards and upside down. Trump did lose the last popular vote by like 3 million votes. That would make his supporters a minority. Plus all the polls are showing him down nationally by 6 to 10 points. I only say loud because you see the rallies and those boat parades. You don't see any of that for Biden.
Recommended Posts