Final Vote—All States, Progress in counting

[Backintheday544]

My prediction:

 

https://www.270towin.com/maps/DQxD2

380-158.

 

I think the early voting in Texas is going to be enough to get Biden Texas.

 

on the fence with GA. 
 

NC/OH go Trump.

 

can we FL going red too but I think Biden has it with the non-Cuban Hispanic voters and the gap he’s closed on the elderly.

 

Edited November 2, 2020 by Backintheday544

[Tiberius]

27 minutes ago, Backintheday544 said:

My prediction:

 

https://www.270towin.com/maps/DQxD2

380-158.

 

I think the early voting in Texas is going to be enough to get Biden Texas.

 

on the fence with GA. 
 

NC/OH go Trump.

 

can we FL going red too but I think Biden has it with the non-Cuban Hispanic voters and the gap he’s closed on the elderly.

 

Hope you are right, except I really think Biden wins NC 

[Backintheday544]

3 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

Hope you are right, except I really think Biden wins NC 

From my map, worst case scenario is FL, TX, MI, GA go Red. Biden still gets 281.

[TBBills]

35 minutes ago, Backintheday544 said:

My prediction:

 

https://www.270towin.com/maps/DQxD2

380-158.

 

I think the early voting in Texas is going to be enough to get Biden Texas.

 

on the fence with GA. 
 

NC/OH go Trump.

 

can we FL going red too but I think Biden has it with the non-Cuban Hispanic voters and the gap he’s closed on the elderly.

 

I am not expecting traditional red states to go blue, but if that does happen it will truly show how many REPUBLICANS actually realize Trump is insane. 

[billsfan89]

1 minute ago, Backintheday544 said:

From my map, worst case scenario is FL, TX, MI, GA go Red. Biden still gets 281.

 

I think Trump holds Texas, Georgia, Ohio and Iowa. But Biden gets AZ, NC, Wisconsin, PA, and Michigan. Florida is a true toss up but if Biden gets those 5 states Florida is irrelevant. 

9 minutes ago, TBBills said:

I am not expecting traditional red states to go blue, but if that does happen it will truly show how many REPUBLICANS actually realize Trump is insane. 

 

It would more likely show that Demographic shifts and high black/hispanic and youth voter turnout actually occurred. 

[TBBills]

6 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

 

I think Trump holds Texas, Georgia, Ohio and Iowa. But Biden gets AZ, NC, Wisconsin, PA, and Michigan. Florida is a true toss up but if Biden gets those 5 states Florida is irrelevant. 

 

It would more likely show that Demographic shifts and high black/hispanic and youth voter turnout actually occurred. 

I like to think of it the other way also b.c it makes the republicans in this sub-forum furious.

 

Should I even call a Trump supporter a republican? I don't even think traditional republicans like Trump, I know the House and Senate Republicans don't like him. I know some republicans are not that bad but the Trumpies are insane... just look at the fine Trumpies we have here.

Edited November 2, 2020 by TBBills

[SoTier]

Here's the thread where I think we were going to put Electoral College predictions:  Electoral College Contest

 

My prediction:  Biden 415, Covid Donnie 163

 

The coronavirus is going to take Trump down in an Electoral College landslide -- and gives Biden a 10 or more point popular vote margin.   This is the worse crisis that the US has faced since the Great Depression, Covid Donnie has totally proven his incompetence and unfitness to be POTUS in his response to it, and the American people will respond just as they did in 1932.

Edited November 2, 2020 by SoTier

[Warcodered]

 

[Doc Brown]

Biden takes back MI, WI, and PA (barely) from 2016.  He'll also flip Maine's 2nd district.  That's it.  Biden wins 279 to 259.  We won't know for sure until later this week and both sides will go nuts in the meantime.

Edited November 3, 2020 by Doc Brown

[US Egg]

I have no problem with the optimism of the anti-Trumpers.

 

Just wish they'd be honest that Harris is the real candidate.

[Doc Brown]

2 hours ago, I am the egg man said:

I have no problem with the optimism of the anti-Trumpers.

 

Just wish they'd be honest that Harris is the real candidate.

Wall Street wouldn't be donating massive amounts of money to Biden if Harris was the real candidate. 

[ALF]

     

 

[US Egg]

6 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Wall Street wouldn't be donating massive amounts of money to Biden if Harris was the real candidate. 

So Joe is more than a vapid bumbling figurehead candidate.....

 

.....well, you are the Doc.

[snafu]

11 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

We won't know for sure until later this week and both sides will go nuts in the meantime.

 

No matter what the outcome, this is worst case scenario.

Maximum countrywide embarrassment from both sides. And that's the best we could hope for.

 

[ComradeKayAdams]

Good afternoon, my beautiful Bills fans! Let’s get right to the presidential election analysis, shall we? We can safely assume 337 electoral college votes are locked in place, with Biden holding a 212-125 lead in this regard. That leaves 15 states and 201 remaining EC votes up for grabs tonight. I’m sticking with my Election Day prediction made on October 19 (see page 26 of this thread):

 

3 states of 20 EC votes I have holding for Team Blue from 2016 (Minnesota-10, Nevada-6, New Hampshire-4).

 

3 states of 46 EC votes I have flipping to Team Blue from 2016 (Pennsylvania-20, Michigan-16, Wisconsin-10).

 

9 states of 135 EC votes I have staying with Team Red from 2016 (Texas-38, Florida-29, Ohio-18, Georgia-16, North Carolina-15, Arizona-11, Iowa-6, Nebraska district-1, Maine district-1).

 

Altogether, this means that I am predicting Biden to win by a fairly narrow EC margin of victory of +18, which is somewhat closer than what the majority of polls are predicting. I believe the election will come down to one state: PENNSYLVANIA. Could fracking end up being the issue that decides the election??

 

The main question now is whether or not Trump can pull off what would apparently be considered a significant upset…which is really just another way of asking how reliable these polls actually are when push comes to shove?

 

Potential factors that could work in Trump’s favor: his longstanding voter base enthusiasm gap advantage, notions of any type of hidden systemic poll oversampling error, the infamous “shy Trump voter” effect (to whatever extent it may actually be), any relaxed progressive left vote (voting third party or staying home) due to a perceived safe Biden victory, GOP new voter registration surges I’ve seen reported, and that recent Gallup poll claiming a majority (56%) of people who feel they are better off financially under Trump compared to Biden.

 

Some potential factors working against Trump: the recent COVID-19 case spikes in swing states such as Wisconsin, Trump’s poor October job approval rating from a presidential historical perspective, any Joe-mentum from Joe’s remarkably consistent lead (relative to Hillary’s in 2016) held since mid-April and especially since early June, the electorally unpredictable fear factor among liberals of losing the election or having it stolen from an orange-hued fascist, any debate performance boost Biden received in the minds of last-second undecideds and independents by not falling apart from dementia, and various cognitive biases in play from corporate media favoring Biden.

 

The big wild card in this election may end up being the mail-in/absentee ballot contentions. Who knows how exactly this factor will play itself out tonight and possibly this week (or month?!)?

 

I’d feel much more confident in my final prediction if we somehow had access to all of that valuable internal polling data which every major campaign collects and keeps guarded. Instead, all we have to work with are these public polls and clues from past elections. Anyway…we’re all making educated guesses at this point, so might as well just wait until tonight…

 

Oh yeah…don’t forget to track all the extremely important Senate races tonight! I have 12 of them for you: Maine, North Carolina, South Carolina, both Georgias, Alabama, Texas, Iowa, Montana, Alaska, Colorado, and Arizona.

 

On 10/23/2020 at 1:11 PM, Tiberius said:

I like the brunette the best, but would be willing to reconsider after more through investigation 

 

You are looking at outdated Poles from 2019. The one on the left is Aleksandra Kielan and the one in the middle is Karolina Bielawska. And you chose the second-place candidate, Tibs. Hopefully that isn’t going to be a trend with you, beginning tonight?! BTW, beauty pageant girls are notorious for their impeccable makeup skills. You may think you have a Monmouth-caliber or Emerson-caliber Pole, but she may turn out to be as fake as a Trafalgar or Rasmussen after washing her face. Ok sorry…I am done with the lame Pole/poll jokes. I don’t do humor. I handle the dangerously subversive left-wing political manifestos here at PPP.

[SoTier]

2 hours ago, RealKayAdams said:

Good afternoon, my beautiful Bills fans! Let’s get right to the presidential election analysis, shall we? We can safely assume 337 electoral college votes are locked in place, with Biden holding a 212-125 lead in this regard. That leaves 15 states and 201 remaining EC votes up for grabs tonight. I’m sticking with my Election Day prediction made on October 19 (see page 26 of this thread):

 

3 states of 20 EC votes I have holding for Team Blue from 2016 (Minnesota-10, Nevada-6, New Hampshire-4).

 

3 states of 46 EC votes I have flipping to Team Blue from 2016 (Pennsylvania-20, Michigan-16, Wisconsin-10).

 

9 states of 135 EC votes I have staying with Team Red from 2016 (Texas-38, Florida-29, Ohio-18, Georgia-16, North Carolina-15, Arizona-11, Iowa-6, Nebraska district-1, Maine district-1).

 

Altogether, this means that I am predicting Biden to win by a fairly narrow EC margin of victory of +18, which is somewhat closer than what the majority of polls are predicting. I believe the election will come down to one state: PENNSYLVANIA. Could fracking end up being the issue that decides the election??

 

 

I don't think that fracking is going to be a major determinant of who wins Pennsylvania because Pennsylvanians are split pretty even on the issue with 52% opposing fracking.  (Fracking Poll). 

Edited November 3, 2020 by SoTier
I can't spell/type for poop today

[spartacus]

red wave starting to form

Texas and Florida already past the point of no return for Biden

Ohio soon to follow

 

 

[Doc Brown]

6 hours ago, I am the egg man said:

So Joe is more than a vapid bumbling figurehead candidate.....

 

.....well, you are the Doc.

Fine with me.  Markets will keep humming along and hopefully we get a public option passed.  No money to for profit charter schools will also be nice.

[Gary M]

22 minutes ago, spartacus said:

red wave starting to form

Texas and Florida already past the point of no return for Biden

Ohio soon to follow

 

 

 

 

 

[Roundybout]

Just now, Gary M said:

 

 

 

 

With early counts yes, but more independent voters are voting now than GOP voters earlier.