Backintheday544 Posted October 6, 2020 Posted October 6, 2020 1 hour ago, Big Blitz said: If all you're going to do is post garbage polls that might as well be copied and pasted from 2016 just don't bother. Unless this is the poll's party breakdown (which is still oversampling Dems) don't bother (this may have been posted idk): US election poll: Trump BEATING Biden despite being hospitalised with Covid – EXCLUSIVE The national poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percent at a 95 percent confidence interval. The national party identification turnout model is: Democrats = 37 percent; Republicans = 35 percent; and Independents = 28 percent. The monthly Democracy Institute Sunday Express poll for the Presidential election shows that Mr Trump is still on course for victory with 46 percent of the popular support compared to his Democrat rival Joe Biden’s 45 percent. The poll was completed after the news broke that President Trump and his wife Melania have been infected by Covid-19. But 68 percent said the illness would not affect their vote while 19 percent said they were “more likely” to support Trump and only 13 percent “less likely”. Almost two thirds said they felt sympathy and concern for the President while 38 percent said him getting the disease was “karma” in an indication of the current divisive nature of US politics. Crucially, Mr Trump’s lead in key swing states including Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin remains at 4 percent by 47 percent 43 percent. This gives a projected Electoral College split of 320 to Trump and 218 to Biden. While other polls have Biden ahead, the Democracy Institute, which correctly predicted Brexit and Trump’s win in 2016, only considers people who identify as “likely voters” rather than all registered voters and also asks about the so called shy vote. https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1343305/US-election-poll-donald-trump-coronavirus-covid-joe-biden-exclusive-polling Which polls are over sampling Dems? What do you think the correct D/R/I breakdown is? For reference, 2016 was 35/31/34 D/R/I. The poll you quote is 37/35/28. Why would we see a 4 percent increase in Republicans as a percent of the electorate?
Big Blitz Posted October 7, 2020 Posted October 7, 2020 7 hours ago, Backintheday544 said: Which polls are over sampling Dems? What do you think the correct D/R/I breakdown is? For reference, 2016 was 35/31/34 D/R/I. The poll you quote is 37/35/28. Why would we see a 4 percent increase in Republicans as a percent of the electorate? That's fine to. Just show the internals to polls you post. I look at every single internal of the polls I care to look at. Any that show Biden up 10 plus nationally is just beyond laughable. I want to see the internals of the one that has him up 12.
The Frankish Reich Posted October 7, 2020 Posted October 7, 2020 12 minutes ago, Big Blitz said: That's fine to. Just show the internals to polls you post. I look at every single internal of the polls I care to look at. Any that show Biden up 10 plus nationally is just beyond laughable. I want to see the internals of the one that has him up 12. Agreed -- it is smart to look at the internals. But when you do, it's pretty clear that Biden is expanding his lead. Here's the one I linked to in the last page -- a very good "A" rated poll by fivethirtyeight with really no demonstrated tilt toward either side -- fivethirtyeight says it's "house effect" is +0.1 Dem, which is about as close to neutral as they come. https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport_main.aspx?g=5c55fb27-997d-4bec-aa2c-ceb365f9f0bf The sampling is right there at Q.53 - 38 % Dem 35 % Rep 21 % Ind 6 % Other/Not sure This was an unusually large survey: N= 2000. And as I mentioned before, the post-Trump COVID diagnosis numbers showed a very huge move toward Biden (8 point lead before, 16 after). I wouldn't expect that 16 point thing to stick -- these shocks tend to dissipate -- but I see no reason to doubt that this poll's overall Biden +10 margin isn't worthy of belief, particularly given that the trend in other reliable polls is similar.
TBBills Posted October 7, 2020 Posted October 7, 2020 Why do people post polls when they don't matter?
Backintheday544 Posted October 7, 2020 Posted October 7, 2020 (edited) 6 hours ago, TBBills said: Why do people post polls when they don't matter? Polls are very important. For the race, polls help determine where to put campaign funds. Campaigns have a limited amount of money so they don't want to waste funds on races that aren't close. (Usually, we do have the Trump campaign running ads in DC). For regular people, betting! As polls showed the race tightening closer to election day on 2016, I got Trump +475!! Edited October 7, 2020 by Backintheday544
Big Blitz Posted October 7, 2020 Posted October 7, 2020 You can't just take exit polls from 4 years ago to in order to get your party ID. Any poll with a D over 35 is junk. Why? Because less and less Americans have been identifying as a D. Most of these trash polls have a sample of D 37 or 38 and I at around 27-30. Ok. Good work guys. https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx
TBBills Posted October 7, 2020 Posted October 7, 2020 1 hour ago, Backintheday544 said: Polls are very important. For the race, polls help determine where to put campaign funds. Campaigns have a limited amount of money so they don't want to waste funds on races that aren't close. (Usually, we do have the Trump campaign running ads in DC). For regular people, betting! As polls showed the race tightening closer to election day on 2016, I got Trump +475!! Were they important last election? No
The Frankish Reich Posted October 7, 2020 Posted October 7, 2020 55 minutes ago, Big Blitz said: You can't just take exit polls from 4 years ago to in order to get your party ID. Any poll with a D over 35 is junk. Why? Because less and less Americans have been identifying as a D. Most of these trash polls have a sample of D 37 or 38 and I at around 27-30. Ok. Good work guys. https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx Do you see those big numbers in the middle? They're "Independents." They make up their minds about who they're voting for. If it's the Democrat, they then identify themselves as Democrats. If it's a a Republican, they then identify themselves as a Republican. These are not independent variables.
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted October 7, 2020 Posted October 7, 2020 https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-biden-tops-trump-among-likely-voters-in-key-states Democrat Joe Biden is ahead in three key states that President Donald Trump won in 2016, according to new Fox News statewide surveys of Arizona, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. 1
Backintheday544 Posted October 7, 2020 Posted October 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, TBBills said: Were they important last election? No Yea. Trump did a bunch of last minute campaigning in places like Wisconsin due to polls. Also again on the spending, you didn't have Trump spending billions on ads in CA and similar places due to polls. And due to polls I made a nice chunk of cash on Trump +475.
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted October 7, 2020 Posted October 7, 2020 https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-with-upper-single-digit-lead-over-trump-with-4-weeks-until-election-day-polls With the clock ticking toward Election Day, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden holds a nearly 10-point lead over President Trump in an average of the latest national polls. 1
Gary M Posted October 7, 2020 Posted October 7, 2020 (edited) https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/trump-win-2020-lawn-slide-jimmy-failla With less than 30 days until the election, the general consensus from callers to my radio show is that Trump signs, outnumber Biden signs, by about 25 to 1 in all 50 states. Edited October 7, 2020 by Gary M
Big Blitz Posted October 7, 2020 Posted October 7, 2020 9 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said: Do you see those big numbers in the middle? They're "Independents." They make up their minds about who they're voting for. If it's the Democrat, they then identify themselves as Democrats. If it's a a Republican, they then identify themselves as a Republican. These are not independent variables. No. That's not how that works. That makes no sense. They are "Independent." Who they voted for does not factor in that would mean there are zero independents.
The Frankish Reich Posted October 7, 2020 Posted October 7, 2020 8 hours ago, Hedge said: The 21 point lead is unreliable - it's based on the part of the sample that was taken after Trump went public with his COVID diagnosis. But the overall lead is 14 points, and the overall polling looks solid. The general trend -- that calling COVID concerns a hoax, then getting hospitalized with COVID doesn't poll well -- kind of makes sense, no?
Backintheday544 Posted October 7, 2020 Posted October 7, 2020 4 minutes ago, Big Blitz said: No. That's not how that works. That makes no sense. They are "Independent." Who they voted for does not factor in that would mean there are zero independents. Your numbers look at the US population as whole. Exit polls look at who actually votes. Plus there is probably an issue with exit polls questioning party and people mistakenly saying who they voted for.
49er Fan Posted October 7, 2020 Posted October 7, 2020 20 minutes ago, Gary M said: https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/trump-win-2020-lawn-slide-jimmy-failla With less than 30 days until the election, the general consensus from callers to my radio show is that Trump signs, outnumber Biden signs, by about 25 to 1 in all 50 states. 3
The Frankish Reich Posted October 7, 2020 Posted October 7, 2020 On the perils of party weighting and the expected flux in party identification - note that this was from 2008, when the argument was that polls were overweighting Republicans: https://www.google.com/amp/s/fivethirtyeight.com/features/lets-get-few-things-straight-party-id/amp/
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted October 7, 2020 Posted October 7, 2020 2 hours ago, Gary M said: https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/trump-win-2020-lawn-slide-jimmy-failla With less than 30 days until the election, the general consensus from callers to my radio show is that Trump signs, outnumber Biden signs, by about 25 to 1 in all 50 states. Signs? Signs?? Lets look at signs ----- The signs in my neck of the woods - RURAL Virginal is 4 to 1 of Biden to Trump. Only 12 years ago the Republican to Democrat signs were 4 to 1. A complete flip! Also ... 20 Trump signs in 1 yard should only count as 1.
Teddy KGB Posted October 7, 2020 Posted October 7, 2020 Just now, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said: Signs? Signs?? Lets look at signs ----- The signs in my neck of the woods - RURAL Virginal is 4 to 1 of Biden to Trump. Only 12 years ago the Republican to Democrat signs were 4 to 1. A complete flip! Also ... 20 Trump signs in 1 yard should only count as 1. would you let your kids dance for Biden ?
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