Predict the Season

[JoPoy88]

Love the record, really hope they can manage a little bit more than 21 pts a game on average.

[Paup 1995MVP]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Those who have been on this board a while will know that I tend to have certain threads that I start every year at about the same time. Whether that be my roster thread, or my bold predictions thread or my draft prep thread.... normally I do good night / bad night after each of the pre-season games too but sadly that hasn't happened this year. Well here is another... my "Predict the Season" thread. This thread is both serious and a bit of fun at the same time. It is my actual final prediction of our record (which I have only been more than 1 game out on once in 6 seasons of doing this - 2015 when I had Rex's team going 10-6 and they went 8-8) and of who we win and lose to. The individual game write ups I take a little more liberal poetic license but I do occasionally hit a gem there too.... in 2016 I predicted the Bills defense going pick happy against Carson Palmer and the Cardinals (he had 4) and last year I had Eli Manning's week 2 defeat to the Bills as the game before his benching (it was).

 

Overall last year I had the Bills 10-6 (correct) and I called 12 of the 16 games right. I actually nailed the first EIGHT predictions before falling when the Bills lost at Cleveland. I had us winning @ Cleveland and vs Jets and losing @ Dallas and @ Pittsburgh. They were the four I called wrong. https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/217319-predict-the-season/?tab=comments#comment-5926740

 

So here we go for this year..... here is the 2020 Buffalo Bills season:

 

Week 1 - Jets 9 Bills 24 - The Bills open their season with one of the more favourable games on their schedule. They come out firing and feature their new man Stefon Diggs who ends with 7 receptions, over 100 yards and a debut touchdown. However, they also pound the ground game with Singletary and Moss combining for over 150 yards and a score a piece. The Jets on the other hand really struggle to move the ball against the Bills and turn it over twice on their way to a convincing defeat. 1-0

 

Week 2 - Bills 23 Dolphins 20 - This one is tougher than most people expect. The Dolphins defense does a much better job than the Jets in restricting Stefon Diggs who only has 2 catches for 30 yards. The home team even has a chance to win the game on their final drive. In range for a long field goal attempt and with 3rd and 5 Ryan Fitzpatrick decides to go for broke, throwing a dart down to seam for tight end Mike Gesicki.... only to see Jordan Poyer undercut it and secure the interception and the win for the Bills. 2-0

 

Week 3 - Rams 24 Bills 26 - Jared Goff and the Rams are fast out of the gate when they arrive in Buffalo and they are 17-6 up early in the second quarter. The Bills defense finally adjusts though and a turnover forced by Tremaine Edmunds give Josh Allen and the offense a short field right before the half, and Devin Singletary reduces the arrears to 17-13. The Bills are the better team after the interval but they only hit the front with 40 seconds remaining when Tyler Bass nails a 56 yarder. The Rams try to respond but fail on a hail mary as time expires. 3-0

 

Week 4 - Bills 16 Raiders 13 - This could be a game from the 1980s as the Bills and Raiders slug it out in a trenches battle. A touchdown for Josh Jacobs early in the first half has the Raiders ahead and it takes until the middle of the third quarter before Josh Allen barrels his way in on a keeper for the Bills to sniff the endzone. Other than that it is field goals all the way as neither Quarterback is able to break 150 yards passing. 4-0

 

Week 5 - Bills 10 Titans 16 - The unbeaten start is over as the Bills fall in another ugly slugfest in Tennessee. Stefon Diggs is held without a catch and Josh Allen throws two interceptions, including a pick six, and despite the defense not giving up a touchdown the Bills are beaten. After the early season optimism the offense looks mired in mediocrity. Fans are calling for Brian Daboll's head. 4-1

 

Week 6 - Chiefs 30 Bills 27 - Stung by the criticism of their previous two performances the Bills offense flies out of the traps with a typically creative Brian Daboll opening drive that ends with Dawson Knox throwing a touchdown to Cole Beasley. And the Bills are not finished there. Stefon Diggs adds a touchdown before the half and the Bills D has held its own against the Kansas City offense giving Buffalo a 17-13 half-time lead. Mahomes leads Kansas City straight down the field after the break and gives the visitors the advantage but after the teams trade field goals back come Buffalo again and early in the fourth quarter when Allen finds Gabriel Davis for another touchdown that takes him to 300 yards passing on the day and makes the score 27-23. Unfortunately despite stopping the Chiefs on their next drive the Bills fail to ice the game and Mahomes gets one last shot which he makes count with a 25 yard touchdown pass to..... Sammy Watkins, who else? 4-2

 

Week 7 - Bills 35 Jets 14 - The slide is ended when the Bills visit the 1-5 New York Jets. The offense has its best day of the season by far, Josh Allen has his second 300 yard passing day in two weeks and Stefon Diggs and John Brown feast on the Jets secondary. Gregg Williams pays with his job as he is fired as defensive coordinator the next morning. A week later Adam Gase is gone too when the Jets are humiliated by the Chiefs. 5-2

 

Week 8 - Patriots 13 Bills 23 - Sean McDermott gets his first win against the Patriots but it does not come easily. The Patriots lead 10-7 at half time but the Bills pick off Cam Newton early in the third quarter setting up a Josh Allen touchdown run to put them ahead. It is all field goals from there on in but the Bills keep their divisional foe at arms length and asset themselves at the top of the division as they improve to 6-2

 

Week 9 - Seahawks 20 Bills 21 - This is another punishing, physical, affair and while the Bills have the advantage in the trenches some customary Wilson magic has the Seahawks 20-14 ahead at the two minute warning. But Josh Allen demonstrates his increasing maturity leading his team all the way down the field before finding Singletary on a wheel route out of the backfield with just seconds remaining. 7-2

 

Week 10 - Bills 20 Cardinals 26 - Arizona's up tempo spread offense catches the Bills D on a rare off day. They pick on Levi Wallace and Taron Johnson and Kyler Murray ends the game with 250 yards passing, two touchdowns and another 80 on the ground. 7-3

 

Week 11 - BYE

 

Week 12 - Chargers 16 Bills 19 - The Chargers are 5-5 coming into this game and with their offense spluttering it is now or never time for Tyrod Taylor. When they are trailing 16-6 early in the third quarter Taylor is finally yanked and Justin Herbert's NFL career begins. He leads the Chargers to 10 unanswered before Tyler Bass kicks the Bills back ahead early in the 4th. Herbert gets two more shots to tie, or eve win the ball game, but is picked off twice - once by White and once by Milano. 8-3

 

Week 13 - Bills 13 49ers 16 - The Bills are in this the whole way as both defenses dominate the opposing offenses. Allen is sacked 4 times and the Bills get to Garoppolo 5 times with Ed Oliver registering a pair of sacks. They have a chance to tie the game at the end too but Allen misses a wide open John Brown by millimeters on a play that might even have gone for 6 and the 9ers hold on. 8-4

 

Week 14 - Steelers 16 Bills 17 - It is low scoring yet again as two of the best defenses in the AFC square off. The Bills oline struggles to protect Allen again but he makes an unbelievable throw on the run to John Brown early in the 4th to put the Bills ahead for the first time in the game. The Steelers final drive leaves them 57 yards away and the kick looks good for a long way before the Buffalo winds push it wide of the upright. The Bills hang on and secure their first consecutive winning seasons since 1998 and 1999. 9-4

 

Week 15 - Bills 21 Broncos 23 - The season of heart stopping games continues for Bills fans as they fall to a fourth road defeat of the season. Josh Allen and the offense plays well for the most part scoring three touchdowns but when Devin Singletary fumbles at midfield as they are driving for the win Drew Lock takes over and hit Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton on consecutive plays to set up Brandon McManus for the game winning field goal.  9-5

 

Week 16 - Bills 20 Patriots 10 - The Patriots are out of playoff contention sitting at 5-9 going into this game and the Bills have already sealed the division. It is a flat Buffalo performance and the Patriots score a special teams touchdown but a late second half touchdown by Zack Moss seals the win. 10-5

 

Week 17 - Dolphins 19 Bills 24 - I am nervous about predicting this game given the Bill rested their starters week 17 last year. By my reckoning the bye will be well out of reach (remember only the #1 seed gets it now) and in all likelihood the #2 seed will be gone too. While the Bills could still end up as the #3 or #4 they may have a reason to play if there is preferred playoff opponent but this is a dangerous game against the Tua led Dolphins. I am going for the Bills to pull it out in an entertaining game 11-5

 

There you go, 11-5 which by my calculations would mean the #4 seed (have them losing the #3 to Tennessee on the tiebreak) and a home playoff game against the dangerous Cleveland Browns in the wildcard round. As ever Stadium Wallers..... flame away!

Gunner I respect your football IQ.  And 11-5 is a solid record.  I did not look at each game in detail.  But what stood out to me was the relatively low scoring of the Bills.  I did an average and based on your numbers we averaged just over 21 pts per game.  You don't see us putting up in the high 20's w this office.  Teams are not winning the Super Bowl averaging 21 pts a game in this era.  If most of our games are this low scoring I will be very disappointed in Josh Allen and he offense.  Thoughts?

[Wizard]

Predict the season...hmm

 

We will play some games. We will win some games. We will lose some games. Some players will get injured. McDermott will do a lot of clapping. We will see improvement overall and make the playoffs. We may get a new marketing department.

 

I predict it will not include Russ Brandon.

 

Go Bills!?

 

 

 

[GunnerBill]

6 hours ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

Gunner I respect your football IQ.  And 11-5 is a solid record.  I did not look at each game in detail.  But what stood out to me was the relatively low scoring of the Bills.  I did an average and based on your numbers we averaged just over 21 pts per game.  You don't see us putting up in the high 20's w this office.  Teams are not winning the Super Bowl averaging 21 pts a game in this era.  If most of our games are this low scoring I will be very disappointed in Josh Allen and he offense.  Thoughts?

 

Thoughts are 1. We play some really good defenses. 2. The Bills kinda have to show me they are ready to score big points consistently before I am going to predict they do it. 3. It would equate to an uptick of about 2 points per game on 2019. 

[No_Matter_What]

Gunner nice prediction, I think you have solid feel for the possible flow of the season (although you are little to cautious for my taste). I do my own later but couple of comments to yours.

 

1. One thing that really stands out is Bills scoring. You have us average 21,2 points. In my book it means that either Daboll or Josh really suck, since I expect us to score 25+. If we score 21 on average then Diggs addition was useless or Josh didn't take another step or Oline sucks or Moss isn't an upgrade to Gore or something else was clearly wrong. I am no expert but it doesn't seem to me that we play tougher defenses than last year (tougher opponents for sure).

2. As a result of the above I think we win one game you predict us to lose and we will win some less close than you predict - e.g. Steelers could be 24-16 instead of 17-16 and so on.

3. You didn't predict any blowout other than Jets, and there will be some. I think Chargers are the main candidates, followed by Dolphins, Raiders, Rams or Pats.

4. We will also get our asses beaten somewhere in the season, like Eagles last year. I think Seahawks at home could be the game (after finally beating Pats).

5. I love that you have us win with Bass' 56 yarder. I think that's about to happen. I also agree with you that Bass misses some shorter kicks which we were used to be perfect by Hauschka (and we might even lose a game mostly because of this).

6. I agree with your take on Chiefs game - close loss in a shootout. I guess I might predict a win but shootout loss is most likely. Esp. after slugfest in Nashville which is to be expected.

7. I didn't understand your take on W17 - do we play starters, including Allen?

 

EDIT: Ok I see you already reacted to 1, so I expand a little on it. You have slightly misleading numbers, since overall you predict 25 points more than last season, which is only 1.5 more than last season. And if you predict starters to play W17, it is even more, since Barkley led offense managed to score 6 points W17 last year. All in all, you predict roughly 1 more point than last year, which means you almost don't predict our offense to be better (which surprises me).

 

As for defenses we face - 6x division, Steelers, Titans and Broncos remain on our schedule and I guess they might be equal or slightly worse (mainly Pats and Jets, with Broncos and maybe Dolphins being better?)

On the other hand, NFC East and Browns, Ravens and Bengals will be replaced by NFC West, Raiders, Chiefs and Chargers. I agree that on paper those defenses look slightly better, but it is close - at least Ravens, Cowboys and Eagles were also top 10 defenses. I appreciate your opinion on this.

Edited August 31, 2020 by No_Matter_What

[machine gun kelly]

13 hours ago, HappyDays said:

Week 1 - Bills 27 Jets 7

Both teams miss a field goal. The Bills march down the field at will and mostly stop trying by the 4th quarter once they realize the Jets won't be able to score as our defense completely shuts them down. Easiest game of the season.

 

Week 2 - Bills 34 Dolphins 17

Redux of last year's Miami game. We are simply the better team.

 

Week 3 - Rams 27 Bills 20

The Rams defensive line takes over the game.

 

Week 4 - Bills 24 Raiders 17

A closer game than it should be but we pull it out on a game winning TD drive late in the 4th quarter.

 

Week 5 - Titans 27 Bills 23

Run defense has a really bad day and offense looks average.

 

Week 6 - Bills 34 Chiefs 30

Bills offense suddenly explodes. Allen plays his best game of the season in a shootout.

 

Week 7 - Bills 21 Jets 3

Somehow the Jets offense looks even worse in our 2nd game. We mostly run the ball all day, similar outcome to the Redskins last year.

 

Week 8 - Bills 20 Patriots 10

An ugly game for both offenses but a deep pass to Diggs in the 1st quarter is enough to keep us tied 10-10 into the 4th. Our offense finally puts it together for one more TD drive and we come away with the win.

 

Week 9 - Bills 30 Seahawks 20

The Seahawks come out flat for this one and we take advantage.

 

Week 10 - Cardinals 27 Bills 20

This time we come out flat. Cardinals are pushing to take the lead in the division so they need this one more and it shows.

 

Week 11 - Bye

 

Week 12 - Bills 24 Chargers 10

Another game where we play ball control for most of it. Allen ends up less than 200 yards passing but it's enough. Defense gets it's first pick 6 of the season off of Justin Hebert.

 

Week 13 - 49ers 31 Bills 14

This is our worst game of the season. 49ers run all over us and the game just gets away from us from the start.

 

Week 14 - Steelers 24 Bills 20

A heartbreaking loss that mostly takes us out of contention for the #1 seed. With no answer for TJ Watt and not having the benefit of facing Duck Hodges we can't pull it out.

 

Week 15 - Bills 26 Broncos 21

The polar opposite of last week. A game that Bills fans are saying we need to win and we do in a close one. Bass is 4/4 on kicks.

 

 

Week 16 - Patriots 17 Bills 7

Allen takes a nasty hit in the 1st quarter and the Bills pull him for the remainder of the game. By this point we already have the division locked up so it's meaningless. Our only score is a defensive TD. Bills fans are already looking ahead to the wildcard round.

 

Week 17 - Dolphins 20 Bills 10

A showcase for our backups.

 

Final record 9-7 and an AFC East win. We look better than our record but a weak division means the last 2 weeks are meaningless.

 

Wildcard round is at Pittsburgh. Prediction on that TBD.

HD, I may have misunderstood you’re post, so are you saying we finish 9-7?  Reading by game it looks like 11-5.  I agree with a prediction of 10-6 to 11-5.

[JMF2006]

11-5 sounds good to me....thats what I predicted for last year.

 

Stupid scrubs lose to the Jests at home 

[eball]

Well, I’m already on record here with my 12-win (at least) prediction, although I didn’t specify the losses in detail.

 

I’m actually leaning towards 13-3 but didn’t want to be greedy.  Losses to KC, SF, and one AFCE game (either Fish or Pats***).

 

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, No_Matter_What said:

Gunner nice prediction, I think you have solid feel for the possible flow of the season (although you are little to cautious for my taste). I do my own later but couple of comments to yours.

 

1. One thing that really stands out is Bills scoring. You have us average 21,2 points. In my book it means that either Daboll or Josh really suck, since I expect us to score 25+. If we score 21 on average then Diggs addition was useless or Josh didn't take another step or Oline sucks or Moss isn't an upgrade to Gore or something else was clearly wrong. I am no expert but it doesn't seem to me that we play tougher defenses than last year (tougher opponents for sure).

2. As a result of the above I think we win one game you predict us to lose and we will win some less close than you predict - e.g. Steelers could be 24-16 instead of 17-16 and so on.

3. You didn't predict any blowout other than Jets, and there will be some. I think Chargers are the main candidates, followed by Dolphins, Raiders, Rams or Pats.

4. We will also get our asses beaten somewhere in the season, like Eagles last year. I think Seahawks at home could be the game (after finally beating Pats).

5. I love that you have us win with Bass' 56 yarder. I think that's about to happen. I also agree with you that Bass misses some shorter kicks which we were used to be perfect by Hauschka (and we might even lose a game mostly because of this).

6. I agree with your take on Chiefs game - close loss in a shootout. I guess I might predict a win but shootout loss is most likely. Esp. after slugfest in Nashville which is to be expected.

7. I didn't understand your take on W17 - do we play starters, including Allen?

 

EDIT: Ok I see you already reacted to 1, so I expand a little on it. You have slightly misleading numbers, since overall you predict 25 points more than last season, which is only 1.5 more than last season. And if you predict starters to play W17, it is even more, since Barkley led offense managed to score 6 points W17 last year. All in all, you predict roughly 1 more point than last year, which means you almost don't predict our offense to be better (which surprises me).

 

As for defenses we face - 6x division, Steelers, Titans and Broncos remain on our schedule and I guess they might be equal or slightly worse (mainly Pats and Jets, with Broncos and maybe Dolphins being better?)

On the other hand, NFC East and Browns, Ravens and Bengals will be replaced by NFC West, Raiders, Chiefs and Chargers. I agree that on paper those defenses look slightly better, but it is close - at least Ravens, Cowboys and Eagles were also top 10 defenses. I appreciate your opinion on this.

 

I do think our offense will be better and I might be a point or two low here or there but I expect this offense to average 21-22 points not 24-25 points. I love Stefon Diggs and think he will be an excellent addition but he will take some targets and production from John Brown. I don't expect the Bills to have two 1,000 yard receivers. I think Josh will take another step forward.... but I don't think it is going to be the sort of season that by the season's end has established him as an undisputed franchise Quarterback outside of Buffalo and around the league as a whole. I think it will be more incremental progress. 

 

I really do think the defenses are better. The Jets are the closest we play to a shambolic defense this year and we play them week 1 when, traditionally, offenses tend to be a little behind defenses and when they play them again I have the Bills putting up points on them. Last year the Bills played 5 games against teams that were bottom 8 in points against - 2x Dolphins, Bengals, Giants, Washington. Okay we get Miami twice again and we get Arizona who were bottom 8 last year too but both of those have made significant upgrades to their defense in the offseason. The Jets are the only team I see looking at our schedule as it stands today who I think will be in that bottom 8-10 range in points and even then with Gregg Williams it is possible they out-produce their talent defensively. I struggle to see the games in which we are going to "run up the score." It is just a tough schedule. Divisionally as I said, Jets worse, Dolphins a lot better (Dolphins to finish top half of the league in total defense is one of my predictions for the season) and the Patriots will be worse on defense but not "bad" defensively while Belichick is calling the defense. Denver were 10th in points against last year and I think year two with Fangio they will be even better. Tennessee have played the Bills the last two years and we have played out 13-12 and 14-7 wins... expecting that to suddenly be a high scorer is unrealistic I think. The Steelers from about week 4 or 5 last season were as good as anyone defensively. The Chiefs ended up top 10 points against, Chargers just outside the top 10 and improved on paper in the offseason.... the two games where maybe I am a little low are Seattle and the Rams both of whom I expect to be below halfway in the rankings come the end of the season. Maybe we score more on those two teams but I just imagine them as close games. 

 

And that brings me to my final reason.... I just think you have to base it at least somewhat on the team the Bills are and have been. Sean McDermott has coached 50 football games in Buffalo. 25 of them or 50% have been one score games. They are a team that plays close football games and knows how to win close football games. I know I have 12 of 16 as 1 score games and in my predictions and it is unlikely to be that many but this is a really tough and testing schedule. Even when they get in front of a team they have rarely blown the doors off games. It is who they are. It is their DNA. On this schedule I anticipate a LOT of close football games. If the Bills had an extra year of development of Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs in situ going into last year's schedule I think I'd have forecast more points. This year is gonna be tough and the Bills are gonna be in a lot of games that go to the wire I think. 

 

 

[HappyDays]

4 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

HD, I may have misunderstood you’re post, so are you saying we finish 9-7?  Reading by game it looks like 11-5.  I agree with a prediction of 10-6 to 11-5.

 

I have 9-7 only because we rest starters and play vanilla the last 2 weeks after locking up the division early.

[eball]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

And that brings me to my final reason.... I just think you have to base it at least somewhat on the team the Bills are and have been. Sean McDermott has coached 50 football games in Buffalo. 25 of them or 50% have been one score games. They are a team that plays close football games and knows how to win close football games. I know I have 12 of 16 as 1 score games and in my predictions and it is unlikely to be that many but this is a really tough and testing schedule. Even when they get in front of a team they have rarely blown the doors off games. It is who they are. It is their DNA. On this schedule I anticipate a LOT of close football games. If the Bills had an extra year of development of Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs in situ going into last year's schedule I think I'd have forecast more points. This year is gonna be tough and the Bills are gonna be in a lot of games that go to the wire I think. 

 

If we weren't going into year 3 with Daboll, year 3 with Josh, and hadn't added, over the last two years, such a slew of weapons, I might understand where you are coming from.  My primary disagreement is in your assessment that just because they have played a lot of close, low scoring games "it is who they are" and " in their DNA."  McD hasn't had an offense capable of carrying the load and has rightfully leaned on his defense, but the pieces appear to be in place now.  I don't believe, if you asked McD, he would tell you he's comfortable getting a 10-pt lead and then taking his foot off the gas.  But since we truthfully don't know how McD will coach with an above-average offense it's all speculation at this point.

[GunnerBill]

30 minutes ago, eball said:

 

If we weren't going into year 3 with Daboll, year 3 with Josh, and hadn't added, over the last two years, such a slew of weapons, I might understand where you are coming from.  My primary disagreement is in your assessment that just because they have played a lot of close, low scoring games "it is who they are" and " in their DNA."  McD hasn't had an offense capable of carrying the load and has rightfully leaned on his defense, but the pieces appear to be in place now.  I don't believe, if you asked McD, he would tell you he's comfortable getting a 10-pt lead and then taking his foot off the gas.  But since we truthfully don't know how McD will coach with an above-average offense it's all speculation at this point.

 

I don't think it is about wanting to take their foot off the gas or not wanting to score more points. It is just who they are, coupled with the schedule they play (I actually predicted them for more points last year, this is a really tough schedule against a lot of teams who are going to play good defense). They Bills themselves have a great defense. When you have a great defense that affects how you play offense. 

Edited August 31, 2020 by GunnerBill

[MJS]

I'm not going to predict scores, but I'll predict wins and losses:

 

Week 1 - Jets at Bills - WIN

 

Week 2 - Bills at Dolphins - WIN

 

Week 3 - Rams at Bills - WIN

 

Week 4 - Bills at Raiders - LOSS

 

Week 5 - Bills at Titans - WIN

 

Week 6 - Chiefs at Bills - WIN

 

Week 7 - Bills at Jets - WIN

 

Week 8 - Patriots at Bills - WIN

 

Week 9 - Seahawks at Bills - LOSS

 

Week 10 - Bills at Cardinals - WIN

 

Week 11 - BYE

 

Week 12 - Chargers at Bills - WIN

 

Week 13 - Bills at 49ers - LOSS

 

Week 14 - Steelers at Bills - WIN

 

Week 15 - Bills at Broncos - WIN

 

Week 16 - Bills at Patriots - LOSS

 

Week 17 - Dolphins at Bills - LOSS

 

Bills finish 11-5 and win the division. I think week 17 might be a "we rested our starters" loss. I think the big win of the season is vs the Chiefs, and I give the Bills the edge because they are playing at home and will come in treating it like a playoff game and will surprise the Chiefs with their physicality.

 

i also think the defensive line is going to really good this year, generating lots of pressure on QB's.

[Midwest1981]

19 hours ago, HappyDays said:

Week 1 - Bills 27 Jets 7

Both teams miss a field goal. The Bills march down the field at will and mostly stop trying by the 4th quarter once they realize the Jets won't be able to score as our defense completely shuts them down. Easiest game of the season.

 

Week 2 - Bills 34 Dolphins 17

Redux of last year's Miami game. We are simply the better team.

 

Week 3 - Rams 27 Bills 20

The Rams defensive line takes over the game.

 

Week 4 - Bills 24 Raiders 17

A closer game than it should be but we pull it out on a game winning TD drive late in the 4th quarter.

 

Week 5 - Titans 27 Bills 23

Run defense has a really bad day and offense looks average.

 

Week 6 - Bills 34 Chiefs 30

Bills offense suddenly explodes. Allen plays his best game of the season in a shootout.

 

Week 7 - Bills 21 Jets 3

Somehow the Jets offense looks even worse in our 2nd game. We mostly run the ball all day, similar outcome to the Redskins last year.

 

Week 8 - Bills 20 Patriots 10

An ugly game for both offenses but a deep pass to Diggs in the 1st quarter is enough to keep us tied 10-10 into the 4th. Our offense finally puts it together for one more TD drive and we come away with the win.

 

Week 9 - Bills 30 Seahawks 20

The Seahawks come out flat for this one and we take advantage.

 

Week 10 - Cardinals 27 Bills 20

This time we come out flat. Cardinals are pushing to take the lead in the division so they need this one more and it shows.

 

Week 11 - Bye

 

Week 12 - Bills 24 Chargers 10

Another game where we play ball control for most of it. Allen ends up less than 200 yards passing but it's enough. Defense gets it's first pick 6 of the season off of Justin Hebert.

 

Week 13 - 49ers 31 Bills 14

This is our worst game of the season. 49ers run all over us and the game just gets away from us from the start.

 

Week 14 - Steelers 24 Bills 20

A heartbreaking loss that mostly takes us out of contention for the #1 seed. With no answer for TJ Watt and not having the benefit of facing Duck Hodges we can't pull it out.

 

Week 15 - Bills 26 Broncos 21

The polar opposite of last week. A game that Bills fans are saying we need to win and we do in a close one. Bass is 4/4 on kicks.

 

 

Week 16 - Patriots 17 Bills 7

Allen takes a nasty hit in the 1st quarter and the Bills pull him for the remainder of the game. By this point we already have the division locked up so it's meaningless. Our only score is a defensive TD. Bills fans are already looking ahead to the wildcard round.

 

Week 17 - Dolphins 20 Bills 10

A showcase for our backups.

 

Final record 9-7 and an AFC East win. We look better than our record but a weak division means the last 2 weeks are meaningless.

 

Wildcard round is at Pittsburgh. Prediction on that TBD.

For the record, if we win the division, even as the fourth overall seed, we will be hosting the Steelers in your scenario (4/5 matchup; other matchups are 2/7 & 3/6 while the top seed has a Bye week).

[HappyDays]

25 minutes ago, Midwest1981 said:

For the record, if we win the division, even as the fourth overall seed, we will be hosting the Steelers in your scenario (4/5 matchup; other matchups are 2/7 & 3/6 while the top seed has a Bye week).

 

Good point. I'm not accustomed to the Bills winning the division so I'm a little rusty on playoff seeding.

[corta765]

As always good post Gunner. Here is how I see the season going:

 

Week 1 - Jets 13 Bills 27 - The Bills open their season in a more difficult game then most expect as the Jets hang around 20-13 entering the 4th before Brown gets a 40 yard TD to ice it. Faithful are nervous after the win given it being tougher but a win is a win. 1-0

 

Week 2 - Bills 28 Dolphins 10 - This game is never in doubt as the Bills come out fired up and Allen finally has his 300 yard passing day. 2-0

 

Week 3 - Rams 17 Bills 21 - Tight game against a Rams team which still has talent and a front four that limit the Bills offense. This is a back and forth game requiring Allen to lead a comeback capped by a Moss TD with 4:00 to go. The defense does it's job and the clock is run out. 3-0

 

Week 4 - Bills 17 Raiders 24 - The winning streak ends against the Raiders a team Buffalo has had issues with on the West Coast. Early turnovers put Buffalo in a catch up position and this week Josh and crew can't tie the game. 3-1

 

Week 5 - Bills 24  Titans 21  - Buffalo responds with a nice win on the road highlighted by an Andre Roberts kick return for a TD. Not a lot of passing as both teams try to run each other to depth as the Bills finish the game running 5 minutes of clock so the Titans can't respond. 4-1

 

Week 6 - Chiefs 23 Bills 27 - The Bills do the impossible and beat KC. Truthfully home teams are favored to win by nearly 70% of the time on Thursday's and with some fans back in the stands Buffalo plays a fired up game. Allen gets his second 300 yard game and the defense thwarts a Mahomes 4th quarter comeback. 5-1

 

Week 7 - Bills 30 Jets 17  - Half time Jets lead 14-10, third quarter Buffalo get a long Diggs TD and then a turnover by the Jets converts to a Singletary TD swinging the game. Buffalo controls it from there on D and the Jets can on get a FG which Buffalo matches late in the forth to ice it. 6-1

 

Week 8 - Patriots 13 Bills 19 - The Patriots enter at 4-3 with people generally surprised they are doing as well as they are despite Brady gone and the losses on D. Buffalo's goal coming in is just control and playing smart. It is a relatively boring affair as the Bills control the game on the ground gaining over 175 yards as the Pats front 7 is weaker then the back end while Allen is shaky but does get a nice TD to Knox from 30 yards out. Cam and Pats stall past midfield at the end and the Bills finally win at home against the Pats  for the first time in 9 years. 7-1

 

Week 9 - Seahawks 17 Bills 20 - In what ends up being the most physical game of the season both QB's grind it out going over 250 yds passing and 50 yds rushing. Buffalo's defense holds after a Bass FG with 7 mins to go and Seattle isn't able to tie the game 8-1

 

Week 10 - Bills 14 Cardinals 24 - The defense allows 17 pts early putting the Bills down 17-0 at half as the Cards high paced offense catches them, but they lock things down in the second allow the Bills to get it to 21-14. Turnovers cost Buffalo as Allen has two turnovers as do the RB's including a late fumble with 4 mins to go on their own 30 allowing Cards ice the game.  8-2

 

Week 11 - BYE

 

Week 12 - Chargers 7 Bills 24 - The Chargers are a team in flux at QB and with injuries also and Buffalo's defense never lets it be much of an affair. Tre White has 2 INT's on rookie Justin Hebert, Allen has a nice 25 yd TD run, Diggs finishes with 140 yds, and the Bills control the game for an easier victory in late November and the one easy game Buffalo has before three very tough games. 9-2

 

Week 13 - Bills 17 49ers 19 - Defense control the first half as sacks pile up and the half ends 6-3 49ers.  The second half sees both offenses make plays resulting in an entertaining finish. The Bills are up 17-16 with 5 mins to go but the 49ers get to the Bills 30 and take a 19-17 lead on FG. Allen gets the ball back with 1:20 remaining  and moves the Bills to inside the 49ers 40 setting up a long FG try. Bass kick goes wide and the Bills fall. 9-3

 

Week 14 - Steelers 10 Bills 23 - Similar game to last year with the difference being the Bills offense scoring a bit more. With a 16-10 lead with 6 mins to go Tre White picks Big Ben as the Steelers are driving inside the Bills 30. Instead of working the clock to the end, Buffalo moves the Ball and Diggs gets a 23 yd score to ice the game in a closer game then the score says. 10-3

 

Week 15 - Bills 21 Broncos 23 - Allen gets the offense downfield to take the lead late 21-20 with 3 mins to go. One of the few actual breakdowns for the defense happens as Lock leads the Broncos to a game winning FG for the win. Lock helps Denver get a WC spot later in the season at 9-7 thanks to this win, Beasley has a 100 yd day though  10-4

 

Week 16 - Bills 30 Patriots 13 - Buffalo is playing to improve playoff position, NE is playing for the draft or pride. Either way Buffalo opens it up in the second half to cruise to a victory capped by Edmunds getting INT for a TD. Allen finally has a good day against the Pats with 2 TD and 275 yds in the air. 11-4

 

Week 17 - Dolphins 17 Bills 10 - Buffalo has the 3rd seed clinched with a 9-3 conference record and nothing to play for. Tua starts for the Phins and wins a boring end of season game similar to the Jets game the year prior. 11-5

 

Wild Card: Bills 24 Broncos 13  With the stadium open to 50% capacity the Bills faithful finally see a home playoff game and Buffalo wins a tight affair with a Allen hitting Beasley for a 15 yard TD to ice the game.

 

Divisional Weekend:  Ravens 27 Bills 23 Unlike the matchup the prior year in December neither teams defense is able to shutdown either QB in a wild game. Allen drives the Bills for a FG with 8 mins to go to put the Bills up 23-20, but Lamar leads a drive for a TD with a scramble from 10 yds out to regain the lead for Baltimore. Allen gets his chance to be the hero but the drive falls short inside the Ravens redzone as Beasley has a ball knocked out of his hands late to preserve the Ravens win.

 

Season stats:

Allen 3700 yds 27 TDs, 343 yds rushing 5 TDs

Singletary 800 yds 4 TDs, rec 432 yds 2 TDs

Moss 650 yds 6 TDs, 200 yds rec 3 TDs

Diggs 1125 yds 80 rec 7 TDs

Brown 1003 yds 68 rec 6 TDs

[corta765]

11 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Thoughts are 1. We play some really good defenses. 2. The Bills kinda have to show me they are ready to score big points consistently before I am going to predict they do it. 3. It would equate to an uptick of about 2 points per game on 2019. 

 

I would note this. Defenses in normal seasons usually catch up to offenses later in the year as more tape becomes available. Given the COVID year I expect offenses to have a larger advantage then normal this year and talent will break schemes a bit more then normal which is why I am bullish on the Bills despite playing good D's like Steelers, Titans, etc.. I am sure later in the season the defenses will catch up like always, but I think offenses have a larger advantage for the first half of the year compared to most seasons.

[Buffalophil1948]

19-0!! Somebody had to say it

[Billl]

On 8/30/2020 at 2:21 PM, MiltonWaddams said:

Game 1: Jets 10 Bills 38. Bills start off hot and don’t let off the gas. Jets get a field goal in the 3rd and a Td in garbage time. Singletary gets 100yds , 50 in receiving. Diggs, Knox, Brown, Beas with a TD Each. Allen throws for 325. 1-0

 

Game 2: Bills 31 Fins 17. Fins are better than expected. Bills are much better than them. Moss gets his career 1st td and the run game plays a big role with the DB’s of MIA giving the passing game challenges. 2-0

 

Game 3: Rams 20 Bills 24. Hard game. Rams offensively better than expected. Bills get a defensive TD and that’s the difference. 3-0

 

Game 4: Bills 31 Raiders 17. Allen throws for his second 300 yarder of the season. Carr throws 3 picks in the first Half and Mariota comes in for the 2nd half. 4-0

 

Game 5: Bills 17 Titans 14. Tightest game of the season. Bass kicks a 56 yarder as time expires. 5-0

 

Game 6: Chiefs 34 Bills 28. Mahomes and the speed just too much. Preview of AFC Championship brings the doubters. 5-1

 

Game 7: Bills 42 Jets 17. Doubters go away. 6-1

Game 8: Patriots * 10 Bills 34. The Bills finally excise the Demon. Brown puts 150 yards on the DB’s with Gilmore shadowin Diggs who burns him for a big TD on the first play from scrimmage. 7-1

 

Game 9: Seahawks 17 Bills 31. Bills come out firing. 5 sacks on Wilson and he’s just too beat up to will the win. Back to being a medIa darling. 8-1

 

Game 10:Bills 27 Cardinals 20. Murray looks good, but Tre shuts down Nuke and Diggs gets 150yds and a TD. Allen with 300 yards for the 4th time. 9-1
 

Game 11: Chargers 17 Bills 26. Chargers get to Allen for 4 sacks in the first half. He adjusts in the second and rushes for 100 yards, hurtling Jory Bosa for a td. Bills D sends Tyrod to the bench. 10-1

 

Game 12: Bills 17 49ers 21. Shanahan game plans to perfection and Kittle goes for 100 yards and 2 tds. 10-2

 

Game 13: Steelers 17 Bills 30. Big Ben gets hit early and often and Tremaine gets a pick 6. 11-2

 

Game 14: Bills 27 Broncos 20. Bass hits a 60 yarder in the thin air. Josh goes for another 300 with 50 yard tosses to brown and Diggs and Gabe Davis picks up his first NFL touchdown on a higher light reel over the shoulder Catch in the end zone. 12-2

 

Game 15:Bills 24 Patriots 9. Bills D doesn’t allow a Td. Stidham in for the Pats and he shows why Cam Newton,( IR) was signed. 13-2

 

Game 16: Dolphins 24 Bills 17. With the AFC East locked up, the Billsrest their starters and a lot of the depth. From plays and shows decent ability but still throws two pics. Better than Nathan Peterman, so nobody riots at TBD. 13-3

444 points.  That’s the same as the Chiefs scored last year.

On 8/30/2020 at 3:17 PM, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

Jets 13, Bills 27
Bills 28, Dolphins 17
Rams 9, Bills 38
Bills 23, Raiders 17
Bills 16, Titans 24
Chiefs 37, Bills 27
Bills 27, Jets 20
Patriots 20, Bills 33
Seahawks 24, Bills 20
Bills 41, Cardinals 27
Chargers 16, Bills 31
Bills 23, 49ers 20
Steelers 27, Bills 16
Bills 23, Broncos 20
Bills 31, Patriots 17
Dolphins 23, Bills 13 (if resting)

or

Dolphins 17, Bills 41 (if not resting)

 

11-5 or 12-4 depending on playoff situation going into week 17.

 

Very, very tough schedule, but we're also one of the best teams in the NFL.

455 points.  Offensive juggernaut.

[Giuseppe Tognarelli]

18 minutes ago, Billl said:

444 points.  That’s the same as the Chiefs scored last year.

455 points.  Offensive juggernaut.

It would put as at like #7 in ppg, which is realistic with this offense unless Allen sucks. Really, if this offense doesn't score on that level, there is a quarterback problem.