Nextmanup Posted August 26, 2020 Posted August 26, 2020 1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said: You accidentally bring up a good side point. Why should the NFL be the only professional sports league to have fans? NBA, NHL, and MLS are all in a bubble. No fans at games. Heck, no visiting friends and family between games! MLB is playing out and about, but no fans at games. Why do folks think the NFL is so special that we should all be at those games? I would suggest the answer is that this board is crawling with Trump voters who likely believe covid is some type of hoax to begin with, or similar. It's not perceived as a threat, so the discussion moves forward regarding how to return to normal as quickly as possible.
DrDawkinstein Posted August 26, 2020 Posted August 26, 2020 14 minutes ago, noacls said: Because it does not fit your narrative. Whatever dude. Lol Who has it under better control?
nucci Posted August 26, 2020 Posted August 26, 2020 35 minutes ago, Nextmanup said: You're going to get a faux fan experience at home watching on TV too. Have you watched a baseball game, soccer game, or NHL playoff game lately? Team sports with no crowd just doesn't work, at least for me. They pipe in fake cheering when a team scores, etc., but it's really weird. The NFL is going to be "off" and "wrong" IMO until the virus is gone, fans are packed in stadiums again, and cheering like crazy for the home team. It's going to take time. I've really enjoyed the NHL playoffs. Great hockey 1
716er Posted August 26, 2020 Posted August 26, 2020 According to Sal C, at least in Miami fan noise will still be pumped into the stadium even though they allow a % of fans.
JoshAllenHasBigHands Posted August 26, 2020 Posted August 26, 2020 30 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said: Who has it under better control? Its all relative.
DabillsDaBillsDaBills Posted August 26, 2020 Posted August 26, 2020 42 minutes ago, Nextmanup said: You're going to get a faux fan experience at home watching on TV too. Have you watched a baseball game, soccer game, or NHL playoff game lately? Team sports with no crowd just doesn't work, at least for me. They pipe in fake cheering when a team scores, etc., but it's really weird. The NFL is going to be "off" and "wrong" IMO until the virus is gone, fans are packed in stadiums again, and cheering like crazy for the home team. It's going to take time. I've watched a lot of NHL playoffs games and am really enjoying it. It would be better with real fans of course, but as that's not an option I'm ok with fake fan noise. I would prefer no fans at all and fake fan noise over a stadium at 15% capacity with no fake fan noise. Just my 2c 1
Jauronimo Posted August 26, 2020 Posted August 26, 2020 16 minutes ago, nucci said: I've really enjoyed the NHL playoffs. Great hockey Yup. I haven't noticed the lack of crowd noise in NBA or NHL games since the game play has been no less intense. What I have noticed is that we can actually hear the on ice communication which is kind of interesting. 1
Hapless Bills Fan Posted August 26, 2020 Posted August 26, 2020 1 hour ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said: Is that 1 infection leads to cluster of 30-50 over a period of hours, or over the course of the infection (several days)? Is that rate of transmission similar in outdoor settings as it is indoors? We may not have a complete idea of how well the virus spreads in outdoor settings (I think that is what your saying-I don't completely understand what you are trying to convey), we do at least know that the virus does not spread nearly as well. It varies... there are clusters (I believe Eden NY 38 person cluster is one of them) where it's believed to be a single exposure over a course of hours There have been other clusters of 20-50 linked to a single exposure event In other cases, a cluster of cases results over the course of the infection, as with this cluster from Syracuse: https://www.syracuse.com/coronavirus/2020/07/no-masks-or-distancing-1-case-spread-through-3-parties-infecting-16-in-onondaga-county.html The "outdoor vs. indoor" question as you may know is vexing - in general, outdoor transmission is considered much lower risk (tables 6' apart outdoor dining vs indoor dining), but when people are spending hours outdoors in close proximity as in a crowded pool, or a relatively crowded backyard at a party then yes, there are clusters. Here's one near me: The initial cluster was 24 people, from a single OUTDOOR event. At the time of this chart it was up to 84 (and counting) And of course, hours in close proximity yelling singing and shouting amplify effects - as with the Atalanta-Valencia Champions League Soccer match that is felt to have accelerated covid-19 spread in Bergamo IT. Cases like that are a reason why public health officials are so chary of sporting events, especially sporting events with a passionate fan base that will be shouting and yelling all game long. I"m not sure I've addressed your questions? The point I'm trying to make is that when one is seeing infections at the rate of 50 per day they can quickly snowball if they exceed the ability of a public health department to test-trace-isolate. Quote Yes, that is how that works.... I'm not quite sure what the point is here? With the benefit of hindsight, we now know that there were approximately 10x as many people in NYC infected during its surge, but there was basically NO testing.....NYC was blind and as an epidemiologist I follow says, "you can not track what you can not see". They were overwhelmed...only the very sickest people were being hospitalized, nurses and doctors were falling ill, the drugs and treatments that are known to be helpful now, were not known to be helpful then and in fact there were understandable concerns about giving one of them (dexamethasone). It was a mess. I'm not gonna get into a Florida vs NYC big thing here, but I will say I struggle to understand the mindset of someone who apparently believes the response of an overwhelmed area to a novel disease vs. the response of another area to later spread, under conditions where better treatment protocols have been worked out and testing is widely available, is somehow cause for self-congratulations? (I'm talking about the tweet you copied). I mean, Yes, fewer people are dying now...they are literally living based on the learnings gained in NYC and N Italy and UK 1
RobbRiddick Posted August 26, 2020 Posted August 26, 2020 They should run a competition where ONE Bills fan gets to sit and watch on his/her own. 1
Hapless Bills Fan Posted August 26, 2020 Posted August 26, 2020 1 minute ago, RobbRiddick said: They should run a competition where ONE Bills fan gets to sit and watch on his/her own. So right now, I believe the NYS limit on gatherings is 50? How many gates are there? Have each gate admit 50 masked people in a socially distanced way, to be seated in a distanced way. Bring your own food and bev. Wear a leg urinal or adult diapers. Or heck, 50 people per section, if a section is big enough to space them some 15 feet apart - stagger the entrance times. Who'd do it?
RiotAct Posted August 26, 2020 Posted August 26, 2020 10 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: So right now, I believe the NYS limit on gatherings is 50? How many gates are there? Have each gate admit 50 masked people in a socially distanced way, to be seated in a distanced way. Bring your own food and bev. Wear a leg urinal or adult diapers. Or heck, 50 people per section, if a section is big enough to space them some 15 feet apart - stagger the entrance times. Who'd do it? I’d totally do it if I could score tickets. Minus the adult diaper / leg urinal thing... plenty of room in the bathrooms and not everyone goes all at once. Could block off every other urinal and stall. Besides, what did they do at the protests when nature called? ?
JoshAllenHasBigHands Posted August 26, 2020 Posted August 26, 2020 22 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: It varies... there are clusters (I believe Eden NY 38 person cluster is one of them) where it's believed to be a single exposure over a course of hours There have been other clusters of 20-50 linked to a single exposure event In other cases, a cluster of cases results over the course of the infection, as with this cluster from Syracuse: https://www.syracuse.com/coronavirus/2020/07/no-masks-or-distancing-1-case-spread-through-3-parties-infecting-16-in-onondaga-county.html The "outdoor vs. indoor" question as you may know is vexing - in general, outdoor transmission is considered much lower risk (tables 6' apart outdoor dining vs indoor dining), but when people are spending hours outdoors in close proximity as in a crowded pool, or a relatively crowded backyard at a party then yes, there are clusters. Here's one near me: The initial cluster was 24 people, from a single OUTDOOR event. At the time of this chart it was up to 84 (and counting) And of course, hours in close proximity yelling singing and shouting amplify effects - as with the Atalanta-Valencia Champions League Soccer match that is felt to have accelerated covid-19 spread in Bergamo IT. Cases like that are a reason why public health officials are so chary of sporting events, especially sporting events with a passionate fan base that will be shouting and yelling all game long. I"m not sure I've addressed your questions? The point I'm trying to make is that when one is seeing infections at the rate of 50 per day they can quickly snowball if they exceed the ability of a public health department to test-trace-isolate. I'm not quite sure what the point is here? With the benefit of hindsight, we now know that there were approximately 10x as many people in NYC infected during its surge, but there was basically NO testing.....NYC was blind and as an epidemiologist I follow says, "you can not track what you can not see". They were overwhelmed...only the very sickest people were being hospitalized, nurses and doctors were falling ill, the drugs and treatments that are known to be helpful now, were not known to be helpful then and in fact there were understandable concerns about giving one of them (dexamethasone). It was a mess. I'm not gonna get into a Florida vs NYC big thing here, but I will say I struggle to understand the mindset of someone who apparently believes the response of an overwhelmed area to a novel disease vs. the response of another area to later spread, under conditions where better treatment protocols have been worked out and testing is widely available, is somehow cause for self-congratulations? (I'm talking about the tweet you copied). I mean, Yes, fewer people are dying now...they are literally living based on the learnings gained in NYC and N Italy and UK I don't know how to break up the quotes like you did above, so forgive me if this comes off as sloppy. 1. The clusters thing--that makes pretty good sense. I guess, incorrectly, I took you point to be that a single infected person could infect upwards of 30 people during a single exposure event. In other words, I thought you were saying that if I was infected and went to a restaurant, I would cause 30 other people at the restaurant to get infected. It seems, instead, that you are saying that 1 person may expose another, who in turn exposes another, and on and on, and the tracing cannot identify every incidence of exposure until it reaches 30/35 people. That makes sense. 2. Adams County graph - Is "Gathering 1" an outdoor event? I clicked the link, but it doesn't provide any other context. I see that you are saying it was, but what sort of outdoor event was it? Was it the sort where masks are required, such as a football game, or is it a barbecue or something like that? 3. My only point with that graph is to demonstrate a bit of the hypocrisy going on in these discussions. The purpose of the shut down was to "slow the spread." We heard it over and over. We wanted to go from being a red curve to being a blue curve. I think it is wildly unfair the way Florida is criticized for successfully moving the state to a blue curve situation.
noacls Posted August 26, 2020 Posted August 26, 2020 1 hour ago, DrDawkinstein said: Who has it under better control? And still not nearly the amount of deaths in the northeast
DrDawkinstein Posted August 26, 2020 Posted August 26, 2020 25 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said: 3. My only point with that graph is to demonstrate a bit of the hypocrisy going on in these discussions. The purpose of the shut down was to "slow the spread." We heard it over and over. We wanted to go from being a red curve to being a blue curve. I think it is wildly unfair the way Florida is criticized for successfully moving the state to a blue curve situation. Do you think because two pictures of two different graphs look alike they represent the same exact thing? Do you trust Florida's reporting, even with all the known issues and controversy?
Andrew Son Posted August 26, 2020 Posted August 26, 2020 1 minute ago, noacls said: And still not nearly the amount of deaths in the northeast Do you not understand that the densely populated northeast was hit first without the benefit of seeing this coming like the rest of the country?
DrDawkinstein Posted August 26, 2020 Posted August 26, 2020 1 minute ago, noacls said: And still not nearly the amount of deaths in the northeast Florida's currently working hard to catch up tho!
JoshAllenHasBigHands Posted August 26, 2020 Posted August 26, 2020 3 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said: Do you think because two pictures of two different graphs look alike they represent the same exact thing? Do you trust Florida's reporting, even with all the known issues and controversy? Really? Conspiracy theories? Is that where we are with all this.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted August 26, 2020 Posted August 26, 2020 Quote I don't know how to break up the quotes like you did above, so forgive me if this comes off as sloppy. Put the cursor after a line of text in the quote and hit enter 2x Quote 1. The clusters thing--that makes pretty good sense. I guess, incorrectly, I took you point to be that a single infected person could infect upwards of 30 people during a single exposure event. In other words, I thought you were saying that if I was infected and went to a restaurant, I would cause 30 other people at the restaurant to get infected. It seems, instead, that you are saying that 1 person may expose another, who in turn exposes another, and on and on, and the tracing cannot identify every incidence of exposure until it reaches 30/35 people. That makes sense. I was saying both happen! The overall attack rate (how many of the people who are exposed to an infected person get infected) seems to vary between 12-40% when not masked. I think the Eden cluster is said to have been a single event. The Adams County cluster was a single event that infected 18 people initially. The spread is usually caused because perhaps it's a day or two until the person becomes symptomatic then, say, 48 hrs for them to get tested and return results if all goes well...then contact tracing goes to work and their contacts quarantine and/or get tested. And by then the contacts have gone on to have other contacts, who have gone on to have other contacts....that's how 18 people become a cluster of 84 cases across 3 states Quote 2. Adams County graph - Is "Gathering 1" an outdoor event? I clicked the link, but it doesn't provide any other context. I see that you are saying it was, but what sort of outdoor event was it? Was it the sort where masks are required, such as a football game, or is it a barbecue or something like that? It's in the comments (and confirmed because I know someone who was a contact of a secondary infection). Masks were not required because this is Missouri where we're not going to require people to wear a "dang mask", it's a "personal choice". It was a private event, outdoors - no further details available but my understanding is basically a BBQ type thing Quote 3. My only point with that graph is to demonstrate a bit of the hypocrisy going on in these discussions. The purpose of the shut down was to "slow the spread." We heard it over and over. We wanted to go from being a red curve to being a blue curve. I think it is wildly unfair the way Florida is criticized for successfully moving the state to a blue curve situation. I am 100% be down with let's not do the finger-pointy shite, but I do feel that Florida has had infections and outbreaks (and is still having them, especially in the rural parts of the state) that they need not have had with better public health policy. Covidactnow gives Miami-Dade county as at 91% of ICU headroom and half-a-dozen counties at 100%. Overall, it looks as though it's moving in the right direction, but given the learnings about asymptomatic spread and masks etc. it doesn't seem like it had to happen that way. And based upon goings-on in MO - if it's anything like here, I don't think we have a clue what the outbreak looks like. Too many people with relevant symptoms are simply not getting tested, nor are their contacts being traced - when tests take 7-10 or even 14 days for results, contact tracing is impossible.
Doc Brown Posted August 26, 2020 Posted August 26, 2020 5 hours ago, Captain Hindsight said: Saw something the other day about how it may not be worth it for NFL teams to have 10k in the stadium. The cost of opening the stadium, having staff, cleaning ect they may only make a few hundred thousand bucks before taxes. In some parts of the country, that simply might not be worth it They need to jack up the ticket prices then. Never let a tragedy go to waste.
DrDawkinstein Posted August 26, 2020 Posted August 26, 2020 18 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said: Really? Conspiracy theories? Is that where we are with all this. No, there's a 150 page thread on PPP about conspiracy theories. We'll leave that nonsense there. I'm talking about a well documented case of a COVID data scientist filing a whistle-blowers complaint and being fired for refusing to manipulate data. Regardless, that isnt the main point. The main point is that while those two pictures look nice next to each other, and are super convenient because it helps take all the critical thinking out of it, they don't represent what that tweet suggests it does. Are you arguing that Florida implemented and stuck to safety protocols through the entire Spring and Summer? Because we all know they did the exact opposite.
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