The Odds of Dying from COVID-19

[Orlando Buffalo]

1 minute ago, Q-baby! said:

Trump was too worried about the stock market and pretended that it was no big deal and told everyone it was no big deal. Huge mistake. Can you image all you ***** ######s if the exact same thing happened and it was Obama who ***** up LARGE! You clowns would hold circle jerks and discuss and drop loads in each other in glee. 

So then why are the worst states almost all Blue?

[Q-baby!]

3 minutes ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

So then why are the worst states almost all Blue?

Yes, that’s how viruses work. Red and Blue. 
 

[Greybeard]

20 hours ago, RocCityRoller said:

It is August 22, 2020. The great scourge of COVID-19 has roamed the lands for 6+ months.

 

One thing COVID-19 has shown to be true is a terrible understanding of statistics by the common Joe/Jill in the USA.

We may want to focus on STEM and not 'White Rage' in our school districts, but I digress. I want to provide facts.

 

My stats are from the CDC as of 8/22/2020, except US Population

 

US Population: 330,000,000 (Google) (it's between 328.5 and 331 million depending on source, I round up to account for the undocumented)

Tests Reported: 74,830,464 (CDC) - (there have been 74.8 million test results submitted to the CDC)

Positive Tests: 6,633,000 (CDC) - (of the 74.8 million tests submitted, 6.6 million have had positive results)

COVID 19 Deaths: 175,000 - (the CDC reports 174,645, I rounded up for folks who may have died prior to testing)

 

So according to the CDC,  between 1 in 4 and 1 in 5 Americans has been tested for COVID-19. This is the media narrative.

74.8/330 = 22.7% of the population tested.

 

But we know that a number of people have been tested twice or more. We also know a lot of tests were rushed and yield false positives (shows an infection when one does not exist) .

 

74.8 million test results have been logged with the CDC. Some people have been tested 2,3,4 or more times. Still 74.8 million tests have been conducted in the USA. Show me a country with more test results turned in. Is it possible that with more tests conducted more come back positive? What a concept! A country of 330 million has more COVID positives than a country of 60 million, no way!

 

The news blasts: 'USA leads the world in Coronavirus cases'. We are 3rd in population, and 1st in testing. What a wonder.

 

The only European country with a population greater than the 74.8 million tests done in the USA is Germany (83.2). Have 74.8 million tests been collected in Germany? No.

 

74.8 million tests are more than the entire populations of countries like the UK (66.6), France (66.9) or Italy (60.3). It's no wonder our 'confirmed COVID-19' cases are higher than any other country. We have more people, and more people are being tested than any other country.

 

The USA is way ahead of the entire world on testing. We are the 3rd most populous country, and have the most vigorous testing.

Only China and India have more people. Have they conducted 74.8 million tests? Show me the proof. Indonesia is  close 4th, where are their numbers?

 

Let's go with a false Domesday scenario where tests are 1:1 to a person.

This would mean 6.63 million people have been positively identified as infected with Coronavirus.

6.63 million of 74.8 million is an 8.9% infection rate. That seems bad.

 

But that is the number of those tested, not of the general population.

Most of the 22% of people tested are at high risk (medical workers), or show symptoms (very sick).

Even then it is less than 1 in 10 TESTED. (those at high risk or with symptoms)

 

For the general population we need to look at positives vs the population.

6.63 million positives/ 330 general population = 2.0%

2 percent of the USA population has tested positive for Coronavirus. That includes 'positives' like Matt Stafford.

 

The actual chance of an American having COVID-19 lies in between these numbers.

Between 2.0% and 8.9% of Americans have been infected with Coronavirus.

MOST OF THOSE HAVE NO SYMPTOMS

 

175k is the number of COVID confirmed deaths. It's actually 174.7k, but I will give some allowance to under reporting of deaths early due to COVID-19

when testing wasn't available, but COVID-19 was also isolated to a few cities. It seems a fair trade.

 

175k is a bad number. The flu and related illnesses from flu, like pneumonia kill 40-70k every year. COVID-19 is more dangerous than the flu for those that have it.

But then again we do not close down society for the flu.

 

2.6% of those who test positive for COVID-19 die of COVID-19 and related illnesses. This is @10x higher than the normal flu.

 

But let's put that into perspective

0.23% of those tested for COVID-19 die from it

0.053% of the general population are dying from COVID-19

 

1 half of one tenth of one percent of Americans are dying of COVID.

Six months into the 'Panademic' and your odds of dying by Covid-19 are 175,000 out of 330,000,000 or 1 in 1886.

You are 10x more likely to die in a car crash, fall or suicide than COVID-19

You are more likely to die by drowning or in a fire than by COVID-19.

 

Everyone dies.

The government can't fix it, and we don't shut down society for any of the below causes:

 

https://www.nsc.org/work-safety/tools-resources/injury-facts/chart

Your odds of dying by:

Heart Disease and Cancer	1 in 7
Chronic Lower Respiratory Disease	1 in 28
Intentional Self-harm	1 in 95
Unintentional Poisoning by and Exposure to Noxious Substances	1 in 96
Motor Vehicle Crash	1 in 114
Fall	1 in 127
Assault by Firearm	1 in 370
Car Occupant	1 in 645
Pedestrian Incident	1 in 647
Motorcycle Rider Incident	1 in 985
Unintentional Drowning and Submersion	1 in 1,188
Exposure to Fire, Flames or Smoke	1 in 1,498
Choking from Inhalation and Ingestion of Food	1 in 3,461

            Considering all the work you put into this point, it is unfortunate that you ran off the tracks.  Using your logic, 175,000 people died from Covid over roughly a 6 month period this year.  A quick search says over the last 3 years, roughly 40,000 Americans died in car accidents per year.  Well that's over a year, so we will say for a half year that is 20,000.   So following your logic, over 8 times more people died of Covid than died from Car accidents, for a given amount of time.

         You can't throw the entire population of the US into a statistic and then compare that to other random statistics.   Although in March lots of politicians of both persuasions were doing that to make themselves sound/look good.

 

       

          

[Doc]

23 minutes ago, Greybeard said:

            Considering all the work you put into this point, it is unfortunate that you ran off the tracks.  Using your logic, 175,000 people died from Covid over roughly a 6 month period this year.  A quick search says over the last 3 years, roughly 40,000 Americans died in car accidents per year.  Well that's over a year, so we will say for a half year that is 20,000.   So following your logic, over 8 times more people died of Covid than died from Car accidents, for a given amount of time.

         You can't throw the entire population of the US into a statistic and then compare that to other random statistics.   Although in March lots of politicians of both persuasions were doing that to make themselves sound/look good.

 

Yeah, when you have a novel anything, it takes some time to figure out how to combat it.  Look at the flu deaths, and that's with a flu vaccine.

[Doc]

Should I explain it to you in easier terms, wack?

[Niagara Bill]

12 hours ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

Niagara you seem to feel that it is Trump's fault NY, NJ, and CA did not handle things well. Those three states represent over 1/3 of total Covid deaths despite being less than 20% of the population. In fact the math shows that per person the only red state in top 7 is LA. The rest of the top states are as blue as they come, so it must have been all the blue states doing as Trump told them while the red states were dying. Or more likely you are ignorant of what really happened and "orange man bad" is your only response.

What happened to the old The Buck Stops Here.

He is the leader, (the President use to be the Leader if the Free World but this no longer true). He started to take control and then bailed for political reasons. You say NY, NJ CA, I say Florida, Texas, .see, just politics.

170,000 people, and only 58,200 in 10 years of the Vietnam War. You cannot say there has been ,leadership that has been successful.

Can you even imagine Kennedy, Johnson or Nixon issuing a press release criticising New Zealand election process during the war, or Bush during Iraq. 

trump has abdicated responsibility and leadership. He has shown lack of moral leadership. 

The last I remember NY NJ CA FLA were all part of the USA for which he is responsible for. 

It is not time to say  but the governor did this or this mayor did that. 

trump was elected top dog. When the responsibility came to his desk, he ran away and blamed others.

 

[Niagara Bill]

12 hours ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

So then why are the worst states almost all Blue?

They happen to be the coastal states with the largest tourist and business travel...thus us where foreign people come to first. Politics

Citizens in Blue or Red states are still citizens. 

Next time you have middle east war...why not have battalions assignments by political party so the dems get sent to the most dangerous locations. They are not worth as much. What does the constitution say about that.?

Death by political party...what a concept.

 

[3rdnlng]

6 minutes ago, Niagara Bill said:

What happened to the old The Buck Stops Here.

He is the leader, (the President use to be the Leader if the Free World but this no longer true). He started to take control and then bailed for political reasons. You say NY, NJ CA, I say Florida, Texas, .see, just politics.

170,000 people, and only 58,200 in 10 years of the Vietnam War. You cannot say there has been ,leadership that has been successful.

Can you even imagine Kennedy, Johnson or Nixon issuing a press release criticising New Zealand election process during the war, or Bush during Iraq. 

trump has abdicated responsibility and leadership. He has shown lack of moral leadership. 

The last I remember NY NJ CA FLA were all part of the USA for which he is responsible for. 

It is not time to say  but the governor did this or this mayor did that. 

trump was elected top dog. When the responsibility came to his desk, he ran away and blamed others.

 

You have no idea how our government works. States Rights are an important part of the way we work here and governors actually are responsible for the individual states. The federal government's involvement is limited to coordinating between the states and providing (this is iffy) equipment. The federal government encouraged all states to order their residents to distance and to close down stores and restaurants to slow the spread of the virus. There was concern that the number of serious virus cases would overwhelm our medical facilities to the extent that there would not be enough hospital beds or ventilators for those that had to have them. Do you remember "flatten the curve"? This was for a 15-day period. Some governors and a mayor failed miserably. While other states were taking precautions Cuomo (and DeBlasio) encouraged life as usual, even going so far as to suggest to NYers that they go to restaurants, the theater, etc. They did nothing to keep people off the subway or to insure that the system was sanitized. On top of that Cuomo ordered the return of people to nursing homes while they still were contagious, killing well over 12,000 senior citizens. Your ignorance of our way of government and your left wing political biases are idiotic. Lost in all of this is that China deliberately sent forth this virus upon the world, but you want to blame Trump for governor's stupid actions that went against federal guidelines. 

[T master]

Of those positive tests how many were false positives in the beginning and how many were out & out BS ? 

 

I think the numbers can't be a for sure thing but i will say they think the more the merrier !

 

I had a friend go into the hospital the other day for a cancer related illness & the nurse told the wife he had covid until the DR. got back to the wife & told them he didn't her response was "i was just being cautious" Other words she F'd up how many times has that happened during this pandemic ?

[3rdnlng]

29 minutes ago, Niagara Bill said:

They happen to be the coastal states with the largest tourist and business travel...thus us where foreign people come to first. Politics

Citizens in Blue or Red states are still citizens. 

Next time you have middle east war...why not have battalions assignments by political party so the dems get sent to the most dangerous locations. They are not worth as much. What does the constitution say about that.?

Death by political party...what a concept.

 

True, we used to get 20,000 people per day traveling to our west coast from China. As soon as the WHO stated that the virus actually could be transferred from people to people Trump basically shut down travel into the U.S. from China. Funny thing though, other than a nursing home in Washington state the virus seemed to be pretty much controlled on the west coast until months later. That belies your theory there. In the NYC area I agree with you. The rest of your post is just horseshit and makes you look like a stupid poster.

[Bakin]

21 hours ago, BillStime said:

Imagine if the SOB took this virus seriously  and did something in November 2019?
 

 

Trump should have shut the Wuhan Institute of Virology down in 2015. Stupid narcissistic Orangeman was too busy on his campaign. 
/sarc

[BillStime]

1 minute ago, Bakin said:

Trump should have shut the Wuhan Institute of Virology down in 2015. Stupid narcissistic Orangeman was too busy on his campaign. 
/sarc

Congratulations for participating on the internet today. 
 

freak

[Bakin]

54 minutes ago, Niagara Bill said:

What happened to the old The Buck Stops Here.

He is the leader, (the President use to be the Leader if the Free World but this no longer true). He started to take control and then bailed for political reasons. You say NY, NJ CA, I say Florida, Texas, .see, just politics.

170,000 people, and only 58,200 in 10 years of the Vietnam War. You cannot say there has been ,leadership that has been successful.

Can you even imagine Kennedy, Johnson or Nixon issuing a press release criticising New Zealand election process during the war, or Bush during Iraq. 

trump has abdicated responsibility and leadership. He has shown lack of moral leadership. 

The last I remember NY NJ CA FLA were all part of the USA for which he is responsible for. 

It is not time to say  but the governor did this or this mayor did that. 

trump was elected top dog. When the responsibility came to his desk, he ran away and blamed others.

 

Remember when Trumpy said to NY and NJ and Conn early on (can’t remember the exact date) that they should close their borders and the governors of those states freaking out saying “you can’t do that... it’s fascism ....this is America ...states rights ...we will sue etc!!”

remember?

9 minutes ago, BillStime said:

Congratulations for participating on the internet today. 
 

freak

Keep saying ‘November 2019’ and you lose whatever miniscule shred of credibility you have. 

[Niagara Bill]

21 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said:

You have no idea how our government works. States Rights are an important part of the way we work here and governors actually are responsible for the individual states. The federal government's involvement is limited to coordinating between the states and providing (this is iffy) equipment. The federal government encouraged all states to order their residents to distance and to close down stores and restaurants to slow the spread of the virus. There was concern that the number of serious virus cases would overwhelm our medical facilities to the extent that there would not be enough hospital beds or ventilators for those that had to have them. Do you remember "flatten the curve"? This was for a 15-day period. Some governors and a mayor failed miserably. While other states were taking precautions Cuomo (and DeBlasio) encouraged life as usual, even going so far as to suggest to NYers that they go to restaurants, the theater, etc. They did nothing to keep people off the subway or to insure that the system was sanitized. On top of that Cuomo ordered the return of people to nursing homes while they still were contagious, killing well over 12,000 senior citizens. Your ignorance of our way of government and your left wing political biases are idiotic. Lost in all of this is that China deliberately sent forth this virus upon the world, but you want to blame Trump for governor's stupid actions that went against federal guidelines. 

Blame China...Blame dems...Blame blame blame anyone except...

But the President if the USA, the main man, the man with the opportunity to lead, to show leadership, to represent his country's people, the man who had the opportunity to be seen as a great Pres, and great leader and great man....failed.

[Bakin]

15 hours ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

When ever has 170 THOUSAND Americans deaths ever been acceptable? 
 

 

The longer the ignorance the longer business will suffer. 
 

is it now? 

 

if only The Don could make up his mind. 
It’s up to the States or it isn’t 
 

Republican states get aid.  Democratic states can suffer.  
 

Every year it’s been acceptable. 
heart disease, cancer, pneumonia and flu, car accidents and suicides. That’s covid times 10 right there. 
Did you ever think to wear a diaper on your face and hide in your basement in 2019?

[Niagara Bill]

4 minutes ago, Bakin said:

Remember when Trumpy said to NY and NJ and Conn early on (can’t remember the exact date) that they should close their borders and the governors of those states freaking out saying “you can’t do that... it’s fascism ....this is America ...states rights ...we will sue etc!!”

remember?

Yes I remember...but he still abdicated, he through up his hands, he took his ball and went home...demonstrating his character. He failed to represent all his citizens, and so far 175000 died. You cannot remove that burden or responsibility from the man in the Oval Office.

18 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said:

True, we used to get 20,000 people per day traveling to our west coast from China. As soon as the WHO stated that the virus actually could be transferred from people to people Trump basically shut down travel into the U.S. from China. Funny thing though, other than a nursing home in Washington state the virus seemed to be pretty much controlled on the west coast until months later. That belies your theory there. In the NYC area I agree with you. The rest of your post is just horseshit and makes you look like a stupid poster.

Stupid for wasting my energy talking about your Presidents failure to lead...You are right because all you do is blame everyone exceot the man with the responsibility and ability to do something.

It does not matter if China drop a bomb on CA, he cannot say not my problem because CA are democrats. 

As for name calling...typical, move on the 8th inning. 

[SoCal Deek]

4 minutes ago, Niagara Bill said:

Yes I remember...but he still abdicated, he through up his hands, he took his ball and went home...demonstrating his character. He failed to represent all his citizens, and so far 175000 died. You cannot remove that burden or responsibility from the man in the Oval Office.

You really don’t know how this country works at all do you? Might I suggest you go back and take a basics civics class? I’ll give you a head start: The powers of the President are specifically and severely limited within the borders of the United States. 

[3rdnlng]

10 minutes ago, Niagara Bill said:

Blame China...Blame dems...Blame blame blame anyone except...

But the President if the USA, the main man, the man with the opportunity to lead, to show leadership, to represent his country's people, the man who had the opportunity to be seen as a great Pres, and great leader and great man....failed.

This is why I should have known better than to respond to you. You, foreigner that you are, didn't bother to read/comprehend what I posted. You don't know our country but pretend to tell us all about it. 

4 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

You really don’t know how this country works at all do you? Might I suggest you go back and take a basics civics class? I’ll give you a head start: The powers of the President are specifically and severely limited within the borders of the United States. 

Think of Trump as the QB who continually throws perfect passes to Cuomo and DeBlasio and they drop very one of them. Niagara Bill, sportswriter that he is, blames Trump for poor passing percentage. 

[Gary M]

21 hours ago, BillStime said:

Imagine if the SOB took this virus seriously  and did something in November 2019?
 

 

#fakenews #hoax #lyingSOB

28 minutes ago, Bakin said:

Keep saying ‘November 2019’ and you lose whatever miniscule shred of credibility you have. 

 

0 from 0 is 0

[Niagara Bill]

8 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

You really don’t know how this country works at all do you? Might I suggest you go back and take a basics civics class? I’ll give you a head start: The powers of the President are specifically and severely limited within the borders of the United States. 

I have no desire to take your civics lessons any more than you wish to take ours. But leadership is leadership...it started and then disappeared. Strangely you mention his powers are limited inside the US borders, so this means he has no powers, since he has none outside the borders. The president has always had great powers around the world through persuasion, economic influence, through leadership powers history has allocated to the Oval Office, all for good reason.

Today, he has lost influence through his treatment of long term allies, his insults, his impulsive reactions, and now he has lost his influence during a crisis inside his own borders. Sad, but well earned status.

Obama was not a good Pres and trump had the opportunity to lead, to maga and he abdicated.

15 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said:

This is why I should have known better than to respond to you. You, foreigner that you are, didn't bother to read/comprehend what I posted. You don't know our country but pretend to tell us all about it. 

Not telling you about your country, just commentary on the failure during this crisis. 175000 and counting,