For all those who want a first rounder

[plenzmd1]

From John Clayton, but a stat is a stat.

 

The reality is only about 10-12 of the first-round picks in normal years are getting a second contract from the team that drafts them. For example, the 1998 draft included Peyton Manning, Charles Woodson, Greg Ellis and Fred Taylor. It also had Ryan Leaf, Curtis Enis and Jason Peter. Only 10 of the first-rounders from that draft are still with their original teams, and Woodson, a four-time Pro Bowler, is available through a trade with the Raiders. Only nine players remain with their teams from the 1999 draft's top round, including only three of the top nine. three of the top nine.

 

So basically, around 20 of the first-rounders either move to other teams or are out of the league once their initial contract expires.

[BRH]

This information would be a lot more valuable if we could compare it with stats for second, third, and lower rounds.

 

I would venture to say that fewer than 1/3 of ALL players drafted in a given year get second contracts from the teams that draft them, and that the percentage declines the lower you go in the draft.

[CoachChuckDickerson]

Notice Clayton doesn't give the stats for 2nd and 3rd rounders. I'd be will to bet that those percentages lower every round you go down. The average career life span of an NFL player is only 3 years.

[BRH]

Notice Clayton doesn't give the stats for 2nd and 3rd rounders. I'd be will to bet that those percentages lower every round you go down. The average career life span of an NFL player is only 3 years.

310704[/snapback]

There an echo in here?

[plenzmd1]

There an echo in here? 

310706[/snapback]

Okay, then why are draft picks considered like gold? Your saying at least 2/3 of all players drafted do not work out, then why the obsession with getting picks?

[d_wag]

From John Clayton, but a stat is a stat.

 

The reality is  only about 10-12 of the first-round picks in normal years are getting a second contract from the team that drafts them. For example, the 1998 draft included Peyton Manning, Charles Woodson, Greg Ellis and Fred Taylor. It also had Ryan Leaf, Curtis Enis and Jason Peter. Only 10 of the first-rounders from that draft are still with their original teams, and Woodson, a four-time Pro Bowler, is available through a trade with the Raiders. Only nine players remain with their teams from the 1999 draft's top round, including only three of the top nine. three of the top nine.

 

So basically, around 20 of the first-rounders either move to other teams or are out of the league once their initial contract expires.

310696[/snapback]

 

even though a guy might leave his team, it doesn't mean he isn't having success elsewhere in the league......and often times a team receives trade value for the player or would like to sign the player but doesn't have the salary cap room to do so........

 

for instance, from the players drafted in the 1st round of '98, champ bailey was converted into a very valuable asset in portis.......and i'm sure KC and TEN would loved to have retained tait and kearse respectively, but just didn't have the cap room to do so........then you have guys who have played well but a team chooses not to meet their asking price, like woody and winfield.......

 

actually looking at the '98 first round, it looks like a very good chunk of talent came out it........

[stuckincincy]

With the many rule changes the NFL has implemented to increase veiwership, twinkies have replaced real men, so the failure rate is no surprise to me. Can you imagine the fate of Moulds, TO, Harrison, if the bump and run was still in effect? Today's top QB's without their endangered species protections?

[BRH]

Okay, then why are draft picks considered like gold? Your saying at least 2/3 of all players drafted do not work out, then why the obsession with getting picks?

310710[/snapback]

I'm not saying at least 2/3 of all players don't work out. I'm saying that at least 2/3 of all players don't get a second contract from their original teams. That doesn't mean they didn't work out, as d_wag points out above.

 

I am also saying that it's disingenuous to claim that first-round picks aren't all that just because 2/3 of them don't sign second contracts. Unless you evaluate that percentage against the percentage of lower-round players who don't sign second contracts, that percentage is an absolutely meaningless bit of information. Par for Clayton's course, though.

[CoachChuckDickerson]

Okay, then why are draft picks considered like gold? Your saying at least 2/3 of all players drafted do not work out, then why the obsession with getting picks?

310710[/snapback]

 

You kinda answered your own question. The higher you pick, the better your chances of striking gold. The more often you pick, the better your chances of striking gold.

[Realist]

Okay, then why are draft picks considered like gold? Your saying at least 2/3 of all players drafted do not work out, then why the obsession with getting picks?

310710[/snapback]

 

I believe it was the late George Allen that didn't believe in draft picks. He'd gladly trade them all away just to get some proven veterans.

[Alaska Darin]

It truly depends on what the market bears.  I'm glad we don't have the pick.  At least 60% of top 5 picks and an even higher percentage of first rounders never play up to the cap number.  Given a choice between Mike Williams and Takeo Spikes for roughly the same money...

 

There are no drafting absolutes.  Every team makes mistakes (Randy Moss lasted to 19, Jim Kelly to 16, and Dan Marino was picked at the end of the first).

56792[/snapback]

Sounds like ol' Gazoo has been reading TSW and sitting around for awhile waiting to rehash.

 

Damn, we're good.

[VABills]

Notice Clayton doesn't give the stats for 2nd and 3rd rounders. I'd be will to bet that those percentages lower every round you go down. The average career life span of an NFL player is only 3 years.

310704[/snapback]

Actually it's 4.5 years, but you were close. Only off by 50%.

 

BTW, I have actually heard both number used. I believe sports agents like to use the 3 year number while the NFl quotes 4.5 years.

[Kelly the Dog]

Actually it's 4.5 years, but you were close.  Only off by 50%.

 

BTW, I have actually heard both number used.  I believe sports agents like to use the 3 year number while the NFl quotes 4.5 years.

310876[/snapback]

You're right. Plus I always figured that wasn't a good judge of anything. I wonder what the average lifespan of "good" players is; probably 8-10 years. That number is skewed by a thousand guys who just barely make the squad a year or two and don't develop and are replaced by other scraps and 7th round picks the next year.

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

This information would be a lot more valuable if we could compare it with stats for second, third, and lower rounds.

 

I would venture to say that fewer than 1/3 of ALL players drafted in a given year get second contracts from the teams that draft them, and that the percentage declines the lower you go in the draft.

310703[/snapback]

 

The information would also be alot more valuable if in addition to a comparison of the higher round to the lower rounds, it also factored in the salary cap investment in a player and its impacts on building a winning team.

 

Obviously the addition of accurate stats that take a fuller picture into account makes the conclusiom (actually more accurately one should call it an indication rather than a conclusion) much more convoluted, difficult to understand and easier to attack.

 

A comparison of 1st rounder success to lower rounder success would correctly indicate that 1st round players are better than later round players (well duhh) but it would be false to draw a CONCLUSION from this indication that one should go all out to get a 1st round pick, because when you factor in the huge investment a 1st round slot brings with it, a failed 1st rounder does far more damage to your team than a failed pick at a lower slot.

 

Thus, I don;t care if a 1st rounder is 3 times as likely to suceed as a later pick if the first rounder hits to the salary cap are 10 times worse than a lower drafted player.

 

I can absorb the failures or work around the limitations of a lower drafted player far easier than I can deal with it if my first round choice turns out to be one of the 2/3 of picks I deem not to be worthy of resigning or at worst a bust of Ryan Leaf like proportions.

 

I think that TD has made a great move by getting rid of our 1st round pick in a draft judged by most pundits to be one of the worst selections ever. A team would actually be better off simply passing on making a first round choice if they do not judge any of the talents to be worth the multi-millions of $ his slot will bring him. In fact, if the draft plays out like 2003 and the rush of picks at a certain position (DL that year) leaves a team willing to risk passing on their need (a DE in our case) because we think we can get the same player in the second round.

 

As it turned out, this is exactly how TD correctly played it. People at least would have understood if he had used our pick at #23 in 2003 to take Chris Kelsay who was predicted by many pundits to be a talent worthy of a 1st round pick. Observers would have in retrospect called the Bills picking Kelsay in the 1st a good move as he earned a starting job in his second year and it would have been noted the #23 pick was a gift to the Bills from AT anyway.

 

TD in essence passed with the #23 pick for help in the 2003 season as his selection McGahee needed a year off to recuperate. TD turned this "pass" into gold for te Bills as he both was able to get the player we needed in the 2nd and he was able to not only get a top 5 talent player in WM at $23 but negotiated a cap friendly contract with him with a bisected bonus.

 

1st round draft picks are simply over-valued by most fans and I would much rather follow the George Allen track of getting a healthy vet of lesser potential talent than a draftee but know what I'm getting and get a contribution sooner.