Why is this considered a "Make or Break, No Excuses" season for Josh?

[technobot]

Agree with what has been said for the most part. I don't think it's time to throw the baby out with the bath water barring some freak once-in-generation style regression from Josh where he's consistently missing wide open Diggs/Brown and giving the other team easy INT FOR TD, Nate P style.

 

I also don't think 60% passing is an unreasonable ask at all; as Biscuit mentioned that's a fairly low bar for even an average NFL QB. It's obviously not a concrete KPI that must be obtained; I'm more interested in hitting targets down field which will result in more touchdowns. But to repeat, 60% is a very attainable and reasonable minimum expectation.

 

I really love Gunner's comparable: Brady vs Favre. I doubt Josh will ever be Mr. Hyper Effective: throwing short-mid range lasers and dinking and dunking the defense to death. We also get the "worst version of Josh" if he's so afraid of mistakes that he becomes a higher ceiling Tyrod Taylor (no offense to Tyrod, loved him but you all know the rest). A playmaker with a cannon arm who will make the occasional mistake because he's trying to make something happen would be fine by me.

 

And yes, both Allen and Daboll are entering "come on, man" territory if the offense is bottom tier again. Without having seen the games the Bills have a great potentially elite defense, what could be a potent running attack, a good perhaps great group of wide receivers, and what might be a young stud at tight end. Without being able to qualify how good or bad the oline is, I saw a line that was good enough to enable the offense to score points and sustain drives. If the expectation is pro bowlers everywhere along the line, I think those with such hopes will be forever disappointed. And what has Dallas done with their vaunted line? It takes a whole team and I like ours, and the QB. Hoping they get it done.

[ProcessAccepted]

15 hours ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

 

LOL; did you just raise the bar to 69%!   You just straight up hate the dude point blank!  

 

This dude has got to be the most negative nelly on this board. The guy will never say anything positive. I gave up trying to argue with him, he's a lost cause ?

[GunnerBill]

45 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said:

KD, that is exactly my opinion.  It’s win now or bust fans which was the failing team philosophy for 17 years.  He has a minimum of four years, and even with modest improvement this year and the next, will get a 5th year option.  By the end of year 5 and he has back to back 65% completions and other parameters, we’ll know if the wallet opens and he gets a reasonable payday.  
 

This team administration, coaching and ownership has a much measured approach than many fans.  My dad, god bless him is painful watching a game with as he wants half the team fined or fired by the end of every game.  He was a top athlete a good portion of his life and in the HOF for baseball and softball in NYS, but he has no patience.

 

But because of the escalation of QB salaries and the new CBA you don't really actually want your QB playing on the 5th year option it takes away a lot of flexibility. I think this year is short of "make or break" for Josh but not by a lot. The Bills have a big decision to take after this year about whether they are happy to commit themselves to paying Josh Allen $30m plus in 2022 on the option, or whether they wait it out because they can always decide at a later date (ie. after they have FOUR years worth of performances rather than THREE) to tag him. If Allen were to plateau (don't expect it) then that 5th year option decision is tricky. Trickier than I imagined a few months ago with everything that has happened with the CBA and covid.

[Doc Brown]

All the usual excuses since college (raw, poor o-line, poor wr's) are out the door this year.  He doesn't have to have an MVP type season.  He does need to show improvement and we need to quickly look elsewhere if he regresses.  This team is too talented.

[GoBills808]

3 hours ago, eball said:

 

Absolutely not true.  There were a couple of questionable decisions but also some amazing plays.  He had receivers drop balls, go out of bounds, you name it.  The narrative that Josh Allen somehow blew the playoff game is a false one.  To borrow a phrase from Gunner, there was a brief moment during the game where Josh appeared to be "scrambled" but he also got out of it.

Correct. People really need to rewatch OT and the last 6 mins of regular time.

[DrDawkinstein]

1 hour ago, Mark Vader said:

This is an important season for Josh Allen, not a "Make or Break" season.

 

He needs to continue to improve and make better adjustments to his game.

 

The combination of Singletary & Moss will hopefully decline the designed running plays for Allen. I believe that Allen should still be used as a part of the running game, but only in sweep plays or have him run as a last resort. Allen has a daredevil mentality, which makes me nervous, because he could get injured from it.

 

It would be great to see him become better at shorter passes and use the check down more as an option. He doesn't have to become Captain Checkdown, but he could be Sergeant Checkdown.

 

Fewer drops by receivers would be great too, and a more killer instinct from the coaches on offense as well.

 

The addition of Stefon Diggs will be of great help, and I think that Zack Moss and Gabriel Davis will have a big impact on the team as well.

 

Finally, I don't know where this narrative comes from that there are "No More Excuses for Josh Allen." Who is making all of these excuses for him, from a nationwide perspective? I sure as Hell don't see it. Some writers out there need better things to do.

 

 

I have a very tough time getting on board with the bold.

 

For so many years we've watched QBs who are scared to go down field. Who throw for 6 yards on 3rd and 8. Who make 1 read and dump. And it has been horrendous.

 

I understand they played in a different era, but I think of "slingers" like Favre and Kelly.  Favre had plenty of years under 60% (lifetime avg 62%). Kelly had more years under 60% (7) than over 60% (4). Those guys were always looking downfield. Always looking to make a play. IMO, checking down on 3rd and long is giving up on the drive. Might as well just punt on 3rd down if that's the case.

 

I'll happily sacrifice Josh's completion% stat if it means he is trying to make plays, trying to move the chains, and trying to make things happen.

 

I think the bad drops by his receivers hurt us more than Josh being unwilling to check down.

[mjt328]

For most NFL quarterbacks, the third season is a very good gauge of how they will perform the rest of their career.

 

At this point, Josh Allen will have gone through three professional offseason programs.  He's had plenty of time to work on fixing his biggest issues.  On the flip side, defensive coordinators now have plenty of film on his strengths/weaknesses.  This season he's probably not going to have tons of running lanes, and will be forced to make throws he's struggled with in the past.

 

There are always exceptions to the rule (example:  Drew Brees broke out in his fourth season).  And it's fair to point out that Allen started his career behind most Top 10 prospects, due to him attending a small university.  But I think we will know by the end of 2020 - barring a premature cancellation of the season - whether he's going to be a star, solid starter, bust, etc.

 

 

[machine gun kelly]

30 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

But because of the escalation of QB salaries and the new CBA you don't really actually want your QB playing on the 5th year option it takes away a lot of flexibility. I think this year is short of "make or break" for Josh but not by a lot. The Bills have a big decision to take after this year about whether they are happy to commit themselves to paying Josh Allen $30m plus in 2022 on the option, or whether they wait it out because they can always decide at a later date (ie. after they have FOUR years worth of performances rather than THREE) to tag him. If Allen were to plateau (don't expect it) then that 5th year option decision is tricky. Trickier than I imagined a few months ago with everything that has happened with the CBA and covid.

Fair points GB.  You’re a learned guy so you know after year 3 they have to make the call by !arch like they did this year on Tre whether they decide to use the 5th option on him.  Now they don’t have to do it, but they have to use it after this year.  If he progresses this year, I’m guessing they do.

 

As far as another poster mentioned on the gigantic contracts for Dak, Watson, Mahomes, they haven’t yet on Dak or Watson.  Mahomes is $5 mil. this year, and $25 mil. in 2021.  Kirwan on MTC broke it down well and proven on Spotrac Mahomes gave an incredibly team friendly deal which is why they were able to extend Kielce, Clark, Watson, and Jones.  He’ll retire incredibly wealthy, but they did a team friendly deal.  He won’t even eclipse current Russell Wilson $ until year 8.  In 5 years its estimated he will be the 13th highest paid QB, based on the last 5 years.  Not the point.

 

I just think after this year we will place the option on him, see how the 4th year goes and possibly the 5th year, before we give him that big contract or we move on after year 4.  These guys in charge of the Bills are not making rash decisions like previous Bills organizations.  They are taking a long view.

 

Im all for if Allen just sucks with all of this talent and is 53%, move on. Suck it up, bundle picks and do whatever it takes and get a new QB, but I don’t take that pessimistic view.

[Doc]

2 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/N/NewtCa00.htm

 

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/cam-newton-1.html

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AlleJo02.htm

 

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/josh-allen-7.html

 

you really don’t see a big difference between their first 2 years, after much, much different college careers in much, much different college competition?  
 

This board questions guys like Newton and Jackson yet fully believe in Allen.  I get the homer part where you want to believe but is there anything factual to based this on besides blind optimism (which is a good thing)?

 

Steve Smith and Olsen were studs back then.  I'm looking for Diggs to be like Smith and Knox to be like Olsen.

 

2 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

I think I covered that more than once in this thread.

 

I think that Duke catching that TD like he should have and the Bills win in regulation.  That's it, just one play.

[GoBills808]

7 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Isn't that when he launched that bomb to dimarco in double coverage? 

 

Yea, he was a bit of a mess towards the end of that game. He did manage to make some good plays, but the moment seemed gigantic for him. You could see it effected his judgement. 

I think it affected everyone's judgement. Allen definitely but Daboll primarily. 

 

I though Allen stepped up mostly delivered with some bad moments interspersed. Daboll imo just completely ***** the bed.

[Doc]

12 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Or if that Houston corner catches that pick 6 in the first half Houston wins in regulation.... 

 

Or if the refs call that fumble in the endzone...

[GunnerBill]

28 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said:

Fair points GB.  You’re a learned guy so you know after year 3 they have to make the call by !arch like they did this year on Tre whether they decide to use the 5th option on him.  Now they don’t have to do it, but they have to use it after this year.  If he progresses this year, I’m guessing they do.

 

As far as another poster mentioned on the gigantic contracts for Dak, Watson, Mahomes, they haven’t yet on Dak or Watson.  Mahomes is $5 mil. this year, and $25 mil. in 2021.  Kirwan on MTC broke it down well and proven on Spotrac Mahomes gave an incredibly team friendly deal which is why they were able to extend Kielce, Clark, Watson, and Jones.  He’ll retire incredibly wealthy, but they did a team friendly deal.  He won’t even eclipse current Russell Wilson $ until year 8.  In 5 years its estimated he will be the 13th highest paid QB, based on the last 5 years.  Not the point.

 

I just think after this year we will place the option on him, see how the 4th year goes and possibly the 5th year, before we give him that big contract or we move on after year 4.  These guys in charge of the Bills are not making rash decisions like previous Bills organizations.  They are taking a long view.

 

Im all for if Allen just sucks with all of this talent and is 53%, move on. Suck it up, bundle picks and do whatever it takes and get a new QB, but I don’t take that pessimistic view.

 

All I was meaning is I think with the CBA and the salary escalation now it is riskier than before to exercise the option unless you already know you are going to pay the guy down the line. It is arguable that at Quarterback you are actually better taking the extra year of information (ie. Year 4) without making that commitment and then if after year 4 you want to pay him you franchise tag him and try to work out a deal. 

 

Edit: And to add this isn't a "Josh Allen" point so much as it is a NFL rookie QB strategy point. Think the Jets and Browns will be asking themselves very similar questions if they are still in the "not quite convinced" bucket by the end of 2020.

Edited August 18, 2020 by GunnerBill

[machine gun kelly]

Understood my friend and you may be exactly right.  We may disagree from time to time, but I always respect you’re points as you disagree.  You’re not disrespectful.  I like that about anyone who posts.  It’s civil.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

2 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/N/NewtCa00.htm

 

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/cam-newton-1.html

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AlleJo02.htm

 

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/josh-allen-7.html

 

you really don’t see a big difference between their first 2 years, after much, much different college careers in much, much different college competition?  
 

This board questions guys like Newton and Jackson yet fully believe in Allen.  I get the homer part where you want to believe but is there anything factual to based this on besides blind optimism (which is a good thing)?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I question newton simply because of injuries and general wear and tear.  Coming back last season after the shoulder injury, and saying it was healthy, he looked a mess throwing it.  Combine that with a lisfranc injury in his foot, some back problems from a car accident, and just generally a style of play that leads to further injuries...  gonna be a tough road. 

 

LJ won the MVP, i can question whether he'll win it again, but the guys arrived as far as I'm concerned.

[Mr. K]

If he has more talent and bites the shed he is out. No excuses for no improvement .

[C.Biscuit97]

2 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

I question newton simply because of injuries and general wear and tear.  Coming back last season after the shoulder injury, and saying it was healthy, he looked a mess throwing it.  Combine that with a lisfranc injury in his foot, some back problems from a car accident, and just generally a style of play that leads to further injuries...  gonna be a tough road. 

 

LJ won the MVP, i can question whether he'll win it again, but the guys arrived as far as I'm concerned.

Completely fair

[Andrew Son]

2 minutes ago, Mr. K said:

If he has more talent and bites the shed he is out. No excuses for no improvement .

Well, there is one more potential excuse...  Daboll.

 

But I believe in Allen.

[Mr. K]

1 minute ago, SWATeam said:

Well, there is one more potential excuse...  Daboll.

 

But I believe in Allen.

Im done finding reasons to keep QBs that I like even when they arent above average. I want JA to do well but if the Offense comes out and can only manage 17.5 ppg Daboll and Allen can go.

[Mango]

2 hours ago, dneveu said:

 

Trubiskey doesn't have the dynamic rusher piece to fall back on either, and he generally regressed from 2018 to 2019 statistically. 

 

A couple of really good 2018 games propped him up, and their defense went from #1 in takeaways/#3 in yards in 2018 to #22 in takeaways/#8 in yards.  Still a great defense, but takeaway numbers are always hard to maintain.  I think you can best control giving the ball away, less so taking it away. 

 

They also significantly regressed on 3rd down in 2019, which probably has as much to do with their poor rushing attack as it does with Trubiskey.  

 

I agree with you. MT is not as powerful of a runner as Allen is and Trubisky definitely regressed (statistically) from 18/19 compared to Allen, it is why they are view differently, even though one didn't really play much, if any, better than the other in 2019. Funny, though, the last line you could replace Allen and Mitch and it would be the same. Also, Buffalo and Chicago's 3rd down conversion rate are nearly identical. 35.7 and 35.9%.

 

Slightly related, just going though some numbers, Buffalo had the 6th most offensive drives in the league last year, but 20th in total plays, and 24th in points per drive. 8th best in average starting field position, but 26th in trips to the red zone. It seems like the biggest difference between the 2019 Bears and Bills, would be Buffalo falling from a top 5 down to a top 10 defense.  It seems we should at least be able to maintain from last year with shoring up a more complete backfield, a much improved WR corp.and an improved JA should be able to get us a pretty large leap. I think the OL is good enough (about average overall). 

 

Sustainability of being top 3 in multiple categories is really difficult defensively. I think if the Bills can maintain their league rankings across the board on defense, we would be very lucky. Not uncommon to go from 3rd to 5th or 8th year to year. 

[TheElectricCompany]

I don't think it's "make or break", but I do think we get to see what the ceiling looks like.

The flaws & limitations he displays in December are the ones he'll largely have the rest of his career.

Edited August 18, 2020 by TheElectricCompany