Why is this considered a "Make or Break, No Excuses" season for Josh?

[Royale with Cheese]

11 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

69%?!?!?!?

 

Besides it being a "nice" number ?, that is a ludicrous demand.

 

Only 5 QBs were at 69% or higher last season. Drew Brees (74.3), Derek Carr (70.4), Ryan Tannehill (70.3), Kirk Cousins (69.1), Jimmy Garappolo (69.1).

 

You can have Carr and Tannehill. They make that list just because they always check down and never make anything happen themselves. You can keep that Trent Edwards garbage. On 3rd and Long, he better not check down to a covered RB just to keep his percentage up.

 

Completion percentage, in a vacuum, is a worthless stat. Josh finished dead last in completion percentage last year, but I wouldnt say he was anywhere near the worst QB in the league.

 

Agreed on more yards and DEFINITELY more points.

Well it’s obvious that the only franchise QB’s in the NFL are Tannehill, Carr, Brees, Carr and Jimmy G.  All the rest are replaceable.

[BarleyNY]

9 hours ago, jeremy2020 said:

Diggs is an important piece and I don't think it's easy to quantify how a true #1 can have a cascading effect on the rest of the offense. 

 

It's a make or break year for Allen because:

 

- This is about as good of supporting cast on offense as you can expect (to be clear, not saying they're great or amazing, but year in / year out you can't expect much better) so if he can't do it with these guys...then he's not going to be able to do it most years

- QBs who dwell in the bottom of the rankings for 3 straight years generally don't go on to become 'good' QBs

- Continuity on offense

- A clear and fixable problem (deep ball) that could change the entire offense (defenses have to back up and open up more allowing easier reads)

- Diggs, even if he only meets lower expectations here, is a game changer. His abilities line up in this offense and Allen's problem areas. He pushes two very good receivers down the depth chart into roles they should be able to flourish in as well.

- If he can't read defenses or continues to struggle under pressure that's not likely en 'experience' issue any more

 

If Allen can't get the offense out of the basement this year then it's pretty unlikely he's going to...History isn't kind to QBs who dwell in the bottom of the rankings for 3 straight years. 

 

I say all of this as a huge Allen fan. He's a gamer and I love his mentality, but he's got to show he can take an offense to the middle of the pack in the NFL.

 

Just to put a finer point on the bolded text, by 2022 the Bills will be paying Allen very, very large if he’s still here.  Right now the Bills have the relative luxury of a QB on a rookie deal and can spend more freely elsewhere.  In two seasons that won’t be the case and Allen will have to carry more weight for the Bills to be successful.

So is 2020 make or break for him?  No, but it’s getting very, very close to it.  It’s the season that will determine if he gets his very expensive, fully guaranteed fifth year option picked up.

 

We are all looking for Allen to take a step forward this season, but I’m even more interested in something else.  I want to see him in a tough spot In the playoffs again.  He did very well during the season when games were on the line and he did well for most of the Houston playoff game.  But he folded pretty badly after his fumble.  I need to see him handle that a lot better next time around. Without that step forward almost nothing else matters, including an improvement by him during the regular season.
 

I’m going to enjoy this season.  I fully expect the Bills to make the playoffs, but it’s the 4th quarter of our next close playoff game that I’m really waiting for.  I want to see Allen (and the Bills as a whole) step up this time.  I don’t know what’ll happen, but I’m already excited for that moment. 

[JMF2006]

Only some so called fans and a few sour media types are saying this.

 

I say leave the kid alone he has enough pressure on his shoulders and all the fans need to be supporting him.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

I think if he has a trubiskey like 3rd year you have to at least bring in more competition beyond a 2nd year fromm and davis webb.  I don't think he is necessarily losing his job, it just becomes a priority to upgrade QB2 with a player who has more starting experience.  

[teef]

it's not a make or break year, but all of us expect him to take another step forward.  we all knew that when he was drafted, there would be a grouping of fans who just wouldn't be patient enough for josh's development to happen.  it was instant gratification or nothing.  as long as he gets better this year, i want him back next year.

[JMF2006]

I bet everyone  of these  first round QB's ( Josh. Baker, Lamar and Sam except for the wrong Josh in Miam)i gets their 5th year picked up or gets extended

[GunnerBill]

14 minutes ago, BigBuff423 said:

 

To each is own, but 3 INT in the Pats game will take many people off the grid with that argument. I'm sure you see the redeeming qualities but it felt like he turned a corner after that game. I said it in a thread back then and I'll say it here: I think he had a Brady moment. Going back to when Nate Clement took Brady's head off running down the sidelines, Brady was a very different player immediately after that Bills game and the numbers supported his renewed focus and improved decision making. It was as if the hit knocked some sense into him and made him realize the importance of quick and precise passes more than what a coach could say or do. 

 

Josh Allen seemed to make drastic improvements right after that game and getting through the concussion protocol. His INTs went way down, his passing improved overall and his decision making - until the Houston game which IMO was more about situational maturity - got much better. However, obviously that's just my perspective and I'm sure someone who gives as much thought and consideration to the game of football and the Bills specifically has a well-articulated point to make. 

 

Patriots was week 4. I am talking about Jets, Giants and Bengals. Yes there were the crazy 4 turnovers against the Jets week 1 but a couple of those were definitely not on Josh and there was an element of bad luck involved. What I loved about those games was he was more decisive than any other 3 game stretch in his Bills career, the ball was coming out quickly and yardage per game and completion wise it was the best three game stretch of his career. I did not like the way he played, for the most part, in the 5 games immediately after the interceptions against New England because he became increasingly tentative, was holding the ball longer, not trusting his eyes and he became too conservative as the Bills tried to lock him in a straight jacket. Cleveland was the nadir of that and his worst game of the season. After that he loosened up a bit again and he for the most part ended the season well. If we want to ever unlock the potential ceiling of Josh Allen it is to get him into that week 1-3 mode. Decisive, getting the ball out, being aggressive in his decision making and taking the responsibility for moving the offense. That is his chance to be a franchise QB. He isn't ever going to get there as a top end game manager who plays safe. Too many people equate no interceptions with good decision making. And while there is a correlation it can go too far the other way. Sometimes making the good decision is making the aggressive and risky throw. As Bill Parcells (not known as a wide open, throw it all over the field coach) once said to Phil Simms "If you're not throwing picks you're not trying." Josh wasn't born to play this game in a straight jacket. He isn't ever going to be Tom Brady or Drew Brees 2.0. He might be Brett Favre 2.0 though. The Bills have to encourage him to think and play that way IMO.

[Jobot]

These articles are so old and boring.  It's make or break year until next year when it's another make or break year.. Football has more variables that go into a player or team's success than any other sport.  Just take it a game at a time.

[Kellan h]

I think as long as he makes progress relative to where he was before is whats important.  There are so many aspects of the position that he is being evaluated on that are beyond me that I will leave it to the professional judgment of the coaching staff. I don't pay attention to the glib opinions of the national media.

 

He has that innate ability to rise to the moment.  He failed in Houston but I think that will propel him to greater heights. It should not be taken lightly.

 

I think the biggest thing that really isn't talked about is that the oline was better but far from great.  It was very inconsistent. From play to play you didn't know when he would be running for his life.  A young qb needs to trust that he will have consistent protection.  I think we should be looking to see a commensurate level of improvement from the oline before we start passing judgement.

 

Finally we should remember the schedule us going to be much harder this season so we should keep that in my mind.

[Mango]

33 minutes ago, dneveu said:

I think if he has a trubiskey like 3rd year you have to at least bring in more competition beyond a 2nd year fromm and davis webb.  I don't think he is necessarily losing his job, it just becomes a priority to upgrade QB2 with a player who has more starting experience.  

 

Something to point out is, Trubisky and Allen had very similar performances for 2019. Mitch just came down from huge expectations after a very good 2018, Allen came up from a very bad year passing in 2018, so the narrative changes.  If Allen flat-lines in 2020, he would actually have two years comparable to Mitch's 2019 season that is basically running him out of Chicago. 

 

[Malazan]

5 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

I would disagree. Throw in the word "some," and it gets defensible. History isn't kind to some QBs who ...  OK, fair enough. You could even raise that up to "most."

 

But history's been pretty kind to Eli Manning and Drew Brees, for two. And there are more. Some guys take a bit longer than average to develop. Others are just bad because they're not good. 

 

Yes, there are exception that prove the rule, but I wouldn't take those odds in vegas

[Buffalo Junction]

14 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Without doubt, if he can’t hit 69% of his passes, he definitely needs to go.  
 

he’s not terrible, has a lot of upside but I’ve never heard a higher drafted player have more excuses made for him.  He is in his 3rd year in the system with a defense that carries the team.  This isn’t the 80s when receivers could get murdered running routes.  It’s the easiest time to play qb in the history of the nfl.  There is zero excuse to average less than 200 yards passing.  
 

bills fans have the worst standards for offensive play.  we had to score more than 16 points: game last year to win.  Such a low freakin bar.  

Are you being facetious? The only QBs to hit 69% or over last season were Brees and Carr. If Allen makes a similar improvement to last season he will hit 64%. I don’t expect that due to his play style (62% is more likely), that would put his completion percentage smack dab in the middle of the pack. Honestly, what I’d like to see is Allen with passing stats similar to Phillip Rivers fourth year in the league (second starting). Maybe reduce the yards per game from 250 to 225 since Allen doesn’t have Sproles, Tomlinson and Gates as checkdown YAC monsters. Basically: 62-64% completion percentage, 3600-3800 yards, ~3:1 TD/INT ratio. The yardage can flex depending on how much Allen runs, but around 4,000 total yards while seriously cutting down the turnovers would be a solid step. 

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, Buffalo Junction said:

Are you being facetious? The only QBs to hit 69% or over last season were Brees and Carr. If Allen makes a similar improvement to last season he will hit 64%. I don’t expect that due to his play style (62% is more likely), that would put his completion percentage smack dab in the middle of the pack. Honestly, what I’d like to see is Allen with passing stats similar to Phillip Rivers fourth year in the league (second starting). Maybe reduce the yards per game from 250 to 225 since Allen doesn’t have Sproles, Tomlinson and Gates as checkdown YAC monsters. Basically: 62-64% completion percentage, 3600-3800 yards, ~3:1 TD/INT ratio. The yardage can flex depending on how much Allen runs, but around 4,000 total yards while seriously cutting down the turnovers would be a solid step. 

 

He meant 60. It was a typo.

[C.Biscuit97]

12 minutes ago, Buffalo Junction said:

Are you being facetious? The only QBs to hit 69% or over last season were Brees and Carr. If Allen makes a similar improvement to last season he will hit 64%. I don’t expect that due to his play style (62% is more likely), that would put his completion percentage smack dab in the middle of the pack. Honestly, what I’d like to see is Allen with passing stats similar to Phillip Rivers fourth year in the league (second starting). Maybe reduce the yards per game from 250 to 225 since Allen doesn’t have Sproles, Tomlinson and Gates as checkdown YAC monsters. Basically: 62-64% completion percentage, 3600-3800 yards, ~3:1 TD/INT ratio. The yardage can flex depending on how much Allen runs, but around 4,000 total yards while seriously cutting down the turnovers would be a solid step. 

Hit a 9 instead of a 0 boss.  Happy hour started early yesterday.  
 

stat benchmarks are tough because there can be a lot of variables. But 60% is the definition  of average for nfl passers.  I’d say 230 yards passing is also a good benchmark (3,680).  And the other thing I want to see is that Allen wins as a game that a league average qb couldn’t win.  I’ve seen elite moments and amazing plays.  But too many inconsistent stretches and that’s kinda who’s been his whole career so far.  IMO, I don’t think any young qb could be in a better situation for success.  
 

I wish him well because he is a good dude with elite physical tools.  But it takes more than that to be a star qb.

 

also, the offense needs to average at least 24.  Touchdowns can be fluky.  Like Allen could be a better passer but have a rb get double digits tds like Brees and Rodgers. 

Edited August 18, 2020 by C.Biscuit97

[Buffalo Junction]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He meant 60. It was a typo.

Ah. Must have missed that. 

[Ramza86]

15 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

It's make or break because there is enough talent on this team for a deep playoff run. If the QB is the reason they fail, then they need to find an alternative. If he is adequate but they fail then they need to decide if adequate is good enough out of the QB position. If he is great and they still fail well then we all greatly overestimated the talent on the roster. 

 

Not on the offensive line...which happens to be the most important group for the QB. 

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

Why is this a make or break year for Allen? 

 

Simply put, because of the salary cap and rookie QB contracts. If a QB can't play at an elite level by years 3 or 4 of a rookie contract, when their team has ~25m+ to spend on the rest of the roster, they will never be able to play at an elite level. 

 

It's irrelevant if QBs 20+ years ago took longer to develop (I've seen a few people mention Brees, the Mannings, or Kelly). The game has evolved dramatically since then. 

 

The NFL changed rookie contracts in 2011 and there hasn't been a single QB drafted in the 1st round after that point that took more than a few years to develop. The only possible name is Ryan Tannehill, and I think his 2019 season was more a result of being in the perfect team situation combined with a small sample size. 

 

[C.Biscuit97]

Just now, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

Why is this a make or break year for Allen? 

 

Simply put, because of the salary cap and rookie QB contracts. If a QB can't play at an elite level by years 3 or 4 of a rookie contract, when their team has ~25m+ to spend on the rest of the roster, they will never be able to play at an elite level. 

 

It's irrelevant if QBs 20+ years ago took longer to develop (I've seen a few people mention Brees, the Mannings, or Kelly). The game has evolved dramatically since then. 

 

The NFL changed rookie contracts in 2011 and there hasn't been a single QB drafted in the 1st round after that point that took more than a few years to develop. The only possible name is Ryan Tannehill, and I think his 2019 season was more a result of being in the perfect team situation combined with a small sample size. 

 

I think In today’s nfl, with the rules to help qbs so much, you kinda know what you have by year three.  In the last 10 years, how many guys have turned into star qbs after struggling in year 3?  Like if Allen doesn’t hit over 60 (not 69, though it’s nice), it is clearly a major issue that he might not overcome.  
 

there aren’t many holes on this team right (except backup QB ?).  Non Bills fans see a good team with a question mark at qb. Not taking shots but that’s how it is.  If Allen is a legit franchise qb, the roof is the ceiling! If he’s not, he just another young qb who was propped up a good team.  

[Buffalo Junction]

Just now, C.Biscuit97 said:

Hit a 9 instead of a 0 boss.  Happy hour started early yesterday.  
 

stat benchmarks are tough because there can be a lot of variables. But 60% is the definition  of average for nfl passers.  I’d say 230 yards passing is also a good benchmark (3,680).  And the other thing I want to see is that Allen wins as a game that a league average qb couldn’t win.  I’ve seen elite moments and amazing plays.  But too many inconsistent stretches and that’s kinda who’s been his whole career so far.  IMO, I don’t think any young qb could be in a better situation for success.  
 

I wish him well because he is a good dude with elite physical tools.  But it takes more than that to be a star qb.

Doesn’t help that I’m reading the thread with a hangover. ?. 
 

I’m not a huge stat guy for Allen because he’s a gunslinger by nature and he started so far behind the curve. I used Rivers as a comparison because there are similarities in how they approach(ed) passing as both seem to be strongest at intermediate throws... Particularly turning 3rd and long into 1st downs. Limiting mistakes is going to be the biggest indicator, and I think stats will add up if Allen can cut back the turnovers. I expect him to go through the first half of his career with a lower than average completion percentage and a higher than average yards per completion since that’s sort of the gunslinger MO. As long as he improves on the mistakes and becomes consistent he will become a franchise QB. I still want to see him take over and dominate a game against a team other than Miami though. 

[Doc]

9 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Yeah dude.  Clearly I expected the guy who is a 56% passer and has never been above 60% on any level of football to be a 69% passer all of a sudden!!! My massive hands hit a 9 instead of 0!!! I wish I hate petite fingers like some of you.

 

Who knows with you, CB.  You keep harping on his completion percentage and then tout someone like Newton who has had 2 seasons out of 9 above 60% (and his highest completion rate season saw him go 6-8).  But if it was an honest mistake, I can accept that.