Lack of legit backup QB may be Bills' 2020 Achilles heel

[GunnerBill]

7 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Gunner

 

As you can tell, I take a lot of cues from Belichick.  What you say about a veteran quality backup makes sense.  It's interesting that that hasn't been Belichick's approach.

 

He has had Brian Hoyer three times (including currently) who is the epitome of that. His other backups have been high ceiling guys he has drafted on day 2 - Ryan Mallett, Jimmy G and Jacoby Brissett. That is the other way of doing it. That is a bit different than picking up street FAs and drafting guys on day 3.

[C.Biscuit97]

8 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Gunner

 

As you can tell, I take a lot of cues from Belichick.  What you say about a veteran quality backup makes sense.  It's interesting that that hasn't been Belichick's approach.

?

 

shaw as you know, I get a lot of dating advice from Leonardo Dicarpio and financial advice from Jeff Bezos. ?

 

and brian Hoyer >>> Matt Barkley 

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

He has had Brian Hoyer three times (including currently) who is the epitome of that. His other backups have been high ceiling guys he has drafted on day 2 - Ryan Mallett, Jimmy G and Jacoby Brissett. That is the other way of doing it. That is a bit different than picking up street FAs and drafting guys on day 3.

I literally just posted that haha.  Hoyer is Tom Brady compared to Barkley.  Also, all those guys NE drafted are big armed guys.  Fromm’s arm strength has been a major knock and he played in Georgia.  

[GunnerBill]

8 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Hoyer is Tom Brady compared to Barkley.   

 

Brian Hoyer has started 38 games in the NFL. He is 16-22 which is below .500, but he has 54 total touchdowns to 40 total turnovers, has a completion percentage just a tick under 60% and has Quarterbacked a team (Houston in 2015) to the post season. He is a top 10 backup. I think in his prime 4 or 5 years ago was probably even a top 3 or 4 backup. That is another comparison that is unfavourable to Matt Barkley.

 

 

 

Edited August 18, 2020 by GunnerBill

[C.Biscuit97]

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Brian Hoyer has started 38 games in the NFL. He is 16-22 which is below .500, but he has 54 total touchdowns to 40 total turnovers, has a completion percentage just a tick under 60% and has Quarterbacked a team (Houston in 2015) to the post season. He is a top 10 backup. I think in his prime 4 or 5 years ago was probably even a top 3 or 4 backup. That is another comparison that is unfavourable to Matt Barkley.

 

 

 

I’m not sure if you did it yet, but do you have a backup list ranking?

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I’m not sure if you did it yet, but do you have a backup list ranking?

 

Think there was discussion in a thread earlier in the summer - a lot of it depends who you class as a "backup." For example on Hoyer, who is the starter? Who is the #2 and who is the #3? I basically have them tiered roughly as follows (and excluding the teams who will start the season with rookies as the #2 - ie. Dolphins, Chargers, Packers and Eagles plus the Bears where I don't know who doesn't start but either Foles or Trubisky would make a 6th man in the top two tiers):

 

Tier 1 - Guys who are still among the best 32 active Quarterbacks

Jameis Winston

Andy Dalton

 

Tier 2 - Top end backups

Marcus Mariota

Case Keenum

Jacoby Brissett

 

Tier 3 - Game manager vets + young guys with promise

Joe Flacco

Nick Mullens

Brian Hoyer

Kyle Allen

 

Tier 4 - Serviceable

AJ McCarron

RG III

Colt McCoy

Mason Rudolph

 

Tier 5 -Everyone else

 

 

 

 

 

[C.Biscuit97]

20 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Think there was discussion in a thread earlier in the summer - a lot of it depends who you class as a "backup." For example on Hoyer, who is the starter? Who is the #2 and who is the #3? I basically have them tiered roughly as follows (and excluding the teams who will start the season with rookies as the #2 - ie. Dolphins, Chargers, Packers and Eagles plus the Bears where I don't know who doesn't start but either Foles or Trubisky would make a 6th man in the top two tiers):

 

Tier 1 - Guys who are still among the best 32 active Quarterbacks

Jameis Winston

Andy Dalton

 

Tier 2 - Top end backups

Marcus Mariota

Case Keenum

Jacoby Brissett

 

Tier 3 - Game manager vets + young guys with promise

Joe Flacco

Nick Mullens

Brian Hoyer

Kyle Allen

 

Tier 4 - Serviceable

AJ McCarron

RG III

Colt McCoy

Mason Rudolph

 

Tier 5 -Everyone else

 

 

 

 

 

Real good list though I think Rudolph is terrible. I’d also take my chances with Love being in tier 3 but that’s a total projection right now. 

[machine gun kelly]

30 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Think there was discussion in a thread earlier in the summer - a lot of it depends who you class as a "backup." For example on Hoyer, who is the starter? Who is the #2 and who is the #3? I basically have them tiered roughly as follows (and excluding the teams who will start the season with rookies as the #2 - ie. Dolphins, Chargers, Packers and Eagles plus the Bears where I don't know who doesn't start but either Foles or Trubisky would make a 6th man in the top two tiers):

 

Tier 1 - Guys who are still among the best 32 active Quarterbacks

Jameis Winston

Andy Dalton

 

Tier 2 - Top end backups

Marcus Mariota

Case Keenum

Jacoby Brissett

 

Tier 3 - Game manager vets + young guys with promise

Joe Flacco

Nick Mullens

Brian Hoyer

Kyle Allen

 

Tier 4 - Serviceable

AJ McCarron

RG III

Colt McCoy

Mason Rudolph

 

Tier 5 -Everyone else

 

 

 

 

 

GB, you either forgot Tua or Fitz however it should be classified.

[GunnerBill]

12 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said:

GB, you either forgot Tua or Fitz however it should be classified.

 

See parenthesis before the list. This excluded those teams likely to start the season with a rookie backup.

[machine gun kelly]

Copy that bud.  Must have missed it.  Thanks as always.

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He has had Brian Hoyer three times (including currently) who is the epitome of that. His other backups have been high ceiling guys he has drafted on day 2 - Ryan Mallett, Jimmy G and Jacoby Brissett. That is the other way of doing it. That is a bit different than picking up street FAs and drafting guys on day 3.

Thanks for responding.   I agree.   I'd love to have Hoyer, who started out as one of his young guys, too.  

 

Actually, I think Fromm is similar to what you call "high ceiling" guys, although I wouldn't argue, either then or now, that his ceiling is as high.  Still, I'm guessing Fromm will have a long career in the NFL.  He'll be a Hoyer.   

 

Also, when Brady was young and they were winning Super Bowls, Belichick went three or four years with Rohan Davey and then took Matt Cassell in the 7th round.  He hasn't always gone the high ceiling route.  

 

I don't say any of that to argue with you.   I don't disagree that the Bills would be better off with a true high ceiling guy rather than Fromm, or with a Flacco or Fitz if you could get them.    

[BillsFanForever19]

I think in having a young, on the rise, unquestioned leader around the building at QB that is *constantly* questioned by the outside world - signing someone like Jameis Winston, Andy Dalton, or Marcus Mariota would have sent the wrong message to everyone and could have messed with the chemistry of the QB room.

 

Given our situation and wanting Josh to be comfortable as the guy around here, I think we made the best move. Which was keeping Josh with the guy he's been with for the past two seasons in Matt Barkley and stealing a top end QB prospect in the 5th in Jake Fromm. 

 

This is Josh's team. We live and die on his success this year. Any team (save for a couple) is screwed if their QB1 goes down. And in Fromm, you don't know. He could very well be a solid backup out the gate.

[Doc]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Brian Hoyer has started 38 games in the NFL. He is 16-22 which is below .500, but he has 54 total touchdowns to 40 total turnovers, has a completion percentage just a tick under 60% and has Quarterbacked a team (Houston in 2015) to the post season. He is a top 10 backup. I think in his prime 4 or 5 years ago was probably even a top 3 or 4 backup. That is another comparison that is unfavourable to Matt Barkley.

 

The thing is, Hoyer went 5-4 in that 2015 season.  The Texans made the playoffs at 9-7, meaning the other guys took them to 4-3.  And since then he's 1-17 as a starter.

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Think there was discussion in a thread earlier in the summer - a lot of it depends who you class as a "backup." For example on Hoyer, who is the starter? Who is the #2 and who is the #3? I basically have them tiered roughly as follows (and excluding the teams who will start the season with rookies as the #2 - ie. Dolphins, Chargers, Packers and Eagles plus the Bears where I don't know who doesn't start but either Foles or Trubisky would make a 6th man in the top two tiers):

 

Tier 1 - Guys who are still among the best 32 active Quarterbacks

Jameis Winston

Andy Dalton

 

Tier 2 - Top end backups

Marcus Mariota

Case Keenum

Jacoby Brissett

 

Tier 3 - Game manager vets + young guys with promise

Joe Flacco

Nick Mullens

Brian Hoyer

Kyle Allen

 

Tier 4 - Serviceable

AJ McCarron

RG III

Colt McCoy

Mason Rudolph

 

Tier 5 -Everyone else

 

 

 

 

 

That's a good list.  Thanks.  

 

I don't know, but I bet McBeane would rank Barkley Tier 3 or Tier 4.   My only evidence is that if Beane thinks Barkley is Tier 5, he would have gotten someone else.  

 

Everything else is just quibbles.  Mariota might be Tier 1.  Flacco is unique - I wouldn't call him a game manager and he isn't young with promise, but he's probably in the right group.  McCarron is, I think, no better than Barkley.  RG III is unique, maybe useless on the wrong team, a great spark on another.  

 

Thanks.

[Doc]

1 hour ago, ScottLaw said:

Again, who are they beating on that schedule with Barkley?

 

I listed some they can/could beat Scott.  Which were in addition to the Jets and Chargers, who you mentioned, after first claiming they would be lucky to win just 1.

Edited August 18, 2020 by Doc

[GunnerBill]

14 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

The thing is, Hoyer went 5-4 in that 2015 season.  The Texans made the playoffs at 9-7, meaning the other guys took them to 4-3.  And since then he's 1-17 as a starter.

 

Yep. And he is still better than Barkley. 

[Doc]

21 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Yep. And he is still better than Barkley. 

 

Not necessarily, if the past 4 years are any indication.

Edited August 18, 2020 by Doc

[GunnerBill]

12 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Not necessarily, if the past 4 years are any indication.

 

He is still 60% and 18 Tds to 12 Ints. 

 

Barkley in the same 4 years is 58% 10 Tds and 17 Ints. 

[billsfan89]

1 hour ago, ScottLaw said:

Again, who are they beating on that schedule with Barkley?

 

You don't know how difficult the schedule will be even in a normal NFL season. So stop inflating the schedule.

[Dragoon]

How many teams have a good #2 option? And that #2 option the times you’re thinking of have — how many could lead a playoff run if they had to play in 10 or more games? C’mon. The situation is fine. Could it be better? Sure. But ya go to war with what ya got, and I like our squad. 

[oldmanfan]

In this bizarre season with no preseason games, limited practice you go with the guy who knows the offense.