Newton vs Allen and Pats vs Bills

[Inigo Montoya]

I've seen several reports that Cam Newton looks like he is fully recovered from his injury / surgery and is throwing and moving well in the Pat's camp.  With Cam Newton being the QB Josh Allen is most often compared to, it will be interesting to watch those guys play each other two times this year.  Of course they don't really play each other with both being on offense, but the match up will be fun regardless.  How do the two teams QBs and teams match up head to head?  I put 8 categories down in no particular order and my opinion on which team/QB has the advantage.

 

1.) QB Rushing:   Advantage Bills/ Allen.  I think Josh has the edge here.  He is younger and his body is still in one piece.  Cam saw his career on life support last season because of the punishment his body has taken.  I think he might be a bit more conservative when it comes to running the ball going forward.  Allen is a major part of the Bills rushing offense and is likely to remain so.  Allen was responsible for 1 out of every 4 rushing yards last season and scored 9 of the offenses' 13 rushing TDs.  

 

2.) System Knowledge:  Advantage Bills/Allen.  This one seems pretty straightforward.  Allen is in the the same system year 3, Cam is in a new system with a truncated preseason.

 

3.) Coaching:  Advantage Pats/Cam.  I'm a big McDermott fan and he is getting better, but no one is Belichick's equal with in-game management.  He just doesn't make mistakes.  Bastard.

 

4.) Receiving Corps:  Advantage Bills/Allen.  The Bills offense clearly now has one of the most skilled WR1/2/3 sets in the NFL.  The Pats always had Tom who could elevate the play of whatever WRs they fielded, but fortunately those days are now over.  

 

5.) Running Backs:  Advantage Pats/Cam.  This is a hard one.  I think Singletary is a hell of a back and I think Moss is going to be great, but he has yet to take an NFL snap.  Behind those two are Yeldon, a rugby player, and Taiwan Jones.  There's a lot of potential with Singletary and Moss, but they are not there yet.  The Pats have James White, the best RB in the NFL that no one talks about, Sony Michel, Damien Harris, Lamar Miller, and Rex Burkhead / Brandon Bolden who are likely competing for the same roster spot.  If you add Josh Allen to the equation it might be different, but this is about RBs.

 

6.) Offensive Line:  Advantage Pats/Cam.   The Bills have closed the gap considerably and the Pats have lost their starting RT Marcus Cannon to a COVID19 opt out, but they will still return a top five O-Line in 2020. 

 

7.) QB Passing:   Advantage Pats/Cam.  I think at this point Cam is the more accomplished thrower.  If his shoulder is healthy and he can still throw with velocity, I think he has the edge here.  Cam's game has never been about pinpoint throwing accuracy, but his career completion percentage is a respectable 59.6%.  Allen's by contrast is 56.3%.  It's fair to note that Allen's percentage was much improved last year at 58.8%, and there are many other metrics beyond completion percentage that comes into play evaluating a QB's throwing ability, but I think it is fair to say that the onus is on Allen to improve as a passer and not Cam.

 

8.) Defense:  Advantage Bills/Allen.   You know that Belichick is always going to field a solid defense, but I'll give the lean to the BIlls because they are bringing back more of their defensive starters this year.  The Pats have lost more key players to free agency and COVID opt outs than the Bills have; Kyle Van Noy, Danny Shelton, Patrick Chung, Dont'a Hightower, and Jamie Collins.  The Bills lost some players to free agency/retirement but I think they did a better job plugging those holes this off season.  We have also only lost two players to COIVD opt outs, Star and Gaines. Many of our replacements on defense have played McDermott's system before.  That continuity will be especially important this year with no preseason.

 

The end result is a 4-4 tie.  I think the gap between the Bills and Pats has closed considerably.  These two teams in their totality are now pretty evenly matched with the BIlls moving up and the Pats falling back.  I think this season series will most likely end up with a 1-1 split.  If either team can sweep the series they will win the division.  Anyone who thinks the Pats are going to be an easy out this year is crazy.  I think both games will come down to the final possession.

 

 

Edited August 15, 2020 by Inigo Montoya

[Not at the table Karlos]

Bills running backs are better than the pats* Or at least a tie just because of the Moss being a rookie. James White is a receiving back that doesn’t run that much and Sony is meh. Singletary is a better runner than both and yeldon is a good receiver and could put up similar receiving numbers if he was used like white. If Moss is as advertised or close to it the Bills have the better backfield. 
 

Dante Scarnecchia retiring, losing Cannon for the year and Brady’s quick release now in Tampa is gonna hurt that line. Scarnecchia worked wonders with their line. Their guards are good. But the rest can be beat. Our line isn’t the greatest but I think we improve a little and they take a step back. 

 

 

[Buffalo Boy]

57 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

QB Passing:   Advantage Pats/Cam.  I think at this point Cam is the more accomplished thrower.  If his shoulder is healthy and he can still throw with velocity, I think he has the edge here.  Cam's game has never been about pinpoint throwing accuracy, but his career completion percentage is a respectable 59.6%.  Allen's by contrast is 56.3%.  It's fair to note that Allen's percentage was much improved last year at 58.8%, and there are many other metrics beyond completion percentage that comes into play evaluating a QB's throwing ability, but I think it is fair to say that the onus is on Allen to

   I will grant that Cam has more experience but they are essentially the same throwers, imo.
   Under OC Shula Cam’s lack of accuracy was a constant criticism and concern of Panthers fans. He is a streaky passer who will have great games followed by head scratchers where he constantly overthrows receivers.

   Another knock on him was he had no touch and couldn’t hit the short pass and dump off well ( which he often didn’t) until Turner came in and had him dump it to McCaffery which got Cam his first 70+% completion % until he was injured that season.
    Another constant idea was that Cam HAD to run a bit to get settled into a game and start hitting his passes more consistently. I find it highly suspect that Cam is physically capable of that at his previous level. I also think he will be a little more Gun shy in that regard compared to JA who still has his legs as a threat.

    With the understanding that Cam is in a new O I think he and Josh are about even. If the D ( ours or anyone’s) gets a few good hits on Cam towards the beginning of the season I feel he will become a pocket passer.... which he isn’t.

Edited August 15, 2020 by Buffalo Boy

[atlbillsfan1975]

Biggest loss to the Pats this off season was their O-Line coach. Watch how bad that line looks this year and how dysfunctional the locker room gets without Belichick apologists sprinkled on the roster and staff.

 

 

 

Edited August 15, 2020 by atlbillsfan1975

[machine gun kelly]

1 hour ago, Inigo Montoya said:

I've seen several reports that Cam Newton looks like he is fully recovered from his injury / surgery and is throwing and moving well in the Pat's camp.  With Cam Newton being the QB Josh Allen is most often compared to, it will be interesting to watch those guys play each other two times this year.  Of course they don't really play each other with both being on offense, but the match up will be fun regardless.  How do the two teams QBs and teams match up head to head?  I put 8 categories down in no particular order and my opinion on which team/QB has the advantage.

 

1.) QB Rushing:   Advantage Bills/ Allen.  I think Josh has the edge here.  He is younger and his body is still in one piece.  Cam saw his career on life support last season because of the punishment his body has taken.  I think he might be a bit more conservative when it comes to running the ball going forward.  Allen is a major part of the Bills rushing offense and is likely to remain so.  Allen was responsible for 1 out of every 4 rushing yards last season and scored 9 of the offenses' 13 rushing TDs.  

 

2.) System Knowledge:  Advantage Bills/Allen.  This one seems pretty straightforward.  Allen is in the the same system year 3, Cam is in a new system with a truncated preseason.

 

3.) Coaching:  Advantage Pats/Cam.  I'm a big McDermott fan and he is getting better, but no one is Belichick's equal with in-game management.  He just doesn't make mistakes.  Bastard.

 

4.) Receiving Corps:  Advantage Bills/Allen.  The Bills offense clearly now has one of the most skilled WR1/2/3 sets in the NFL.  The Pats always had Tom who could elevate the play of whatever WRs they fielded, but fortunately those days are now over.  

 

5.) Running Backs:  Advantage Pats/Cam.  This is a hard one.  I think Singletary is a hell of a back and I think Moss is going to be great, but he has yet to take an NFL snap.  Behind those two are Yeldon, a rugby player, and Taiwan Jones.  There's a lot of potential with Singletary and Moss, but they are not there yet.  The Pats have James White, the best RB in the NFL that no one talks about, Sony Michel, Damien Harris, and Rex Burkhead / Brandon Bolden who are likely competing for the same roster spot.  If you add Josh Allen to the equation it might be different, but this is about RBs.

 

6.) Offensive Line:  Advantage Pats/Cam.   The Bills have closed the gap considerably and the Pats have lost their starting RT Marcus Cannon to a COVID19 opt out, but they will still return a top five O-Line in 2020. 

 

7.) QB Passing:   Advantage Pats/Cam.  I think at this point Cam is the more accomplished thrower.  If his shoulder is healthy and he can still throw with velocity, I think he has the edge here.  Cam's game has never been about pinpoint throwing accuracy, but his career completion percentage is a respectable 59.6%.  Allen's by contrast is 56.3%.  It's fair to note that Allen's percentage was much improved last year at 58.8%, and there are many other metrics beyond completion percentage that comes into play evaluating a QB's throwing ability, but I think it is fair to say that the onus is on Allen to improve as a passer and not Cam.

 

8.) Defense:  Advantage Bills/Allen.   You know that Belichick is always going to field a solid defense, but I'll give the lean to the BIlls because they are bringing back more of their defensive starters this year.  The Pats have lost more key players to free agency and COVID opt outs than the Bills have; Kyle Van Noy, Danny Shelton, Patrick Chung, Dont'a Hightower, and Jamie Collins.  The Bills lost some players to free agency/retirement but I think they did a better job plugging those holes this off season.  We have also only lost two players to COIVD opt outs, Star and Gaines. Many of our replacements on defense have played McDermott's system before.  That continuity will be especially important this year with no preseason.

 

The end result is a 4-4 tie.  I think the gap between the Bills and Pats has closed considerably.  These two teams in their totality are now pretty evenly matched with the BIlls moving up and the Pats falling back.  I think this season series will most likely end up with a 1-1 split.  If either team can sweep the series they will win the division.  Anyone who thinks the Pats are going to be an easy out this year is crazy.  I think both games will come down to the final possession.

 

 

Inigo, nice breakdown my PA friend.  A ? For me is how good will the line be without their RT, and without their long time Line Coach.  You might be right.  Right now I’m with you on the RB’s, but that will change for me once I see how Moss plays for us.  
 

I can’t make an assessment on Cam vs. Allen.  Cam only had two seasons above 60% of 8 as I don’t count 2019.  He only played in two games.  I can’t believe Cam can run like he used to run.  Allen is in his prime. Allen went from 53 to 59% (58.8 is close enough for me).  If he takes the next step, and with these weapon additions, he should, should be in the mid 60’s.  We won’t know until we get into the season to see if he really did progress.

[eball]

The Bills’ roster from top to bottom is significantly more talented than the Pats***.  Sure, Cam has experience, but he’s a war-torn QB now and I don’t think his rushing will be a significant factor.  Belichick is going to try to win with the Titans’ model this year; they will be a run-heavy team and force teams to commit to stopping the run.  For all of the complaints about Allen’s accuracy I don’t see Cam suddenly becoming the dink and dunk king.  But the bottom line is that outside of RB the Pats*** skill positions are weak.

 

I’ll be pretty disappointed if the Bills don’t at least split with the Pats***, and I think if the season plays out as I believe it will they will be favored when they travel to Boston late in the year.

[frogger]

I recently rewatched the 2017 week 2 meeting between Buffalo and Carolina.  A couple of thoughts...

week one, Carolina gave up zero sacks, the Bills sacked Newton 6 times in the week 2 meeting and constantly confused him, this was the only the 2nd game Coach McDermott and Coach Frazier had this team. The Bills gave up 9 total points.  Cam was not accurate and Benjamin saved him. His lack of accuracy will be even more noticeable in the Pats offense. 

Other thought.

-the Panthers gave up on Cam and replaced him with a journeyman QB (Bridgewater)

-no one seemed interested in Newton during free agency

-the Patriots have so little faith in him that they offered him a 1 year deal worth almost nothing, both parties will say it’s a prove it deal...that cam “just wants to win” but the truth is he’s now Brian Hoyer.

regarding coaching, people will site the OC’s experience with Tebow as an example of his ability to tailor a offense to Newton.  I just don’t buy it, if he plays the Tebow roll he won’t last 3 games and Newton (on a one year deal) won’t be as physical as Tebow was.
Bottomline; Newton is no more than a bridge QB.  

With the loses on Defense (3 LBs) the pats are just simply not going to be as good.  They are a 6 win team.

[1ManRaid]

Isn't Sony Michel injured?

[Inigo Montoya]

8 minutes ago, 1ManRaid said:

Isn't Sony Michel injured?

 

Yep, that’s why they brought in Lamar Miller. Not sure if Michel will be ready for Week 1, but he shouldn’t miss much time.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

My name is Inigo Montoya 

 

I am looking for the 6 ringed man. 
 

I seek revenge for 20 years of agony. 
 

[1ManRaid]

34 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

Yep, that’s why they brought in Lamar Miller. Not sure if Michel will be ready for Week 1, but he shouldn’t miss much time.

Michel isn't expected to be ready week 1.

 

So the Pats RB advantage is based on an injury prone guy coming off a surgery and probably won't be ready to go anyways, and another guy coming off missing a whole year due to injury signed to a 1 year deal to fill in the first injured guy.

 

Over Devin's 5.1 ypc and Zack Moss.

 

Gotcha.

[IgotBILLStopay]

2 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

I've seen several reports that Cam Newton looks like he is fully recovered from his injury / surgery and is throwing and moving well in the Pat's camp.  With Cam Newton being the QB Josh Allen is most often compared to, it will be interesting to watch those guys play each other two times this year.  Of course they don't really play each other with both being on offense, but the match up will be fun regardless.  How do the two teams QBs and teams match up head to head?  I put 8 categories down in no particular order and my opinion on which team/QB has the advantage.

 

1.) QB Rushing:   Advantage Bills/ Allen.  I think Josh has the edge here.  He is younger and his body is still in one piece.  Cam saw his career on life support last season because of the punishment his body has taken.  I think he might be a bit more conservative when it comes to running the ball going forward.  Allen is a major part of the Bills rushing offense and is likely to remain so.  Allen was responsible for 1 out of every 4 rushing yards last season and scored 9 of the offenses' 13 rushing TDs.  

 

2.) System Knowledge:  Advantage Bills/Allen.  This one seems pretty straightforward.  Allen is in the the same system year 3, Cam is in a new system with a truncated preseason.

 

3.) Coaching:  Advantage Pats/Cam.  I'm a big McDermott fan and he is getting better, but no one is Belichick's equal with in-game management.  He just doesn't make mistakes.  Bastard.

 

4.) Receiving Corps:  Advantage Bills/Allen.  The Bills offense clearly now has one of the most skilled WR1/2/3 sets in the NFL.  The Pats always had Tom who could elevate the play of whatever WRs they fielded, but fortunately those days are now over.  

 

5.) Running Backs:  Advantage Pats/Cam.  This is a hard one.  I think Singletary is a hell of a back and I think Moss is going to be great, but he has yet to take an NFL snap.  Behind those two are Yeldon, a rugby player, and Taiwan Jones.  There's a lot of potential with Singletary and Moss, but they are not there yet.  The Pats have James White, the best RB in the NFL that no one talks about, Sony Michel, Damien Harris, Lamar Miller, and Rex Burkhead / Brandon Bolden who are likely competing for the same roster spot.  If you add Josh Allen to the equation it might be different, but this is about RBs.

 

6.) Offensive Line:  Advantage Pats/Cam.   The Bills have closed the gap considerably and the Pats have lost their starting RT Marcus Cannon to a COVID19 opt out, but they will still return a top five O-Line in 2020. 

 

7.) QB Passing:   Advantage Pats/Cam.  I think at this point Cam is the more accomplished thrower.  If his shoulder is healthy and he can still throw with velocity, I think he has the edge here.  Cam's game has never been about pinpoint throwing accuracy, but his career completion percentage is a respectable 59.6%.  Allen's by contrast is 56.3%.  It's fair to note that Allen's percentage was much improved last year at 58.8%, and there are many other metrics beyond completion percentage that comes into play evaluating a QB's throwing ability, but I think it is fair to say that the onus is on Allen to improve as a passer and not Cam.

 

8.) Defense:  Advantage Bills/Allen.   You know that Belichick is always going to field a solid defense, but I'll give the lean to the BIlls because they are bringing back more of their defensive starters this year.  The Pats have lost more key players to free agency and COVID opt outs than the Bills have; Kyle Van Noy, Danny Shelton, Patrick Chung, Dont'a Hightower, and Jamie Collins.  The Bills lost some players to free agency/retirement but I think they did a better job plugging those holes this off season.  We have also only lost two players to COIVD opt outs, Star and Gaines. Many of our replacements on defense have played McDermott's system before.  That continuity will be especially important this year with no preseason.

 

The end result is a 4-4 tie.  I think the gap between the Bills and Pats has closed considerably.  These two teams in their totality are now pretty evenly matched with the BIlls moving up and the Pats falling back.  I think this season series will most likely end up with a 1-1 split.  If either team can sweep the series they will win the division.  Anyone who thinks the Pats are going to be an easy out this year is crazy.  I think both games will come down to the final possession.

 

 

nice post. bottom line - too early to crown us AFCE champs. we are looking good but they gotta do it on the field.

 

that said may i present a minor extension (using magnitudes that reflect importance of trait and size of impact on the result) to your analysis - we are X pats are O

 

1.) QB Rushing:   Advantage Bills/ Allen.  XX very nice touch to include this dimension separately - i think this will be the difference between winning and losing

 

2.) System Knowledge:  Advantage Bills/Allen. X Belichik will hv Cam ready enough for this not to be a huge difference

 

3.) Coaching:  Advantage Pats/Cam.  OO Belichick as an in game coach relative to McD

 

4.) Receiving Corps:  Advantage Bills/Allen.  XX kinda affected by no. 7 - otherwise diggs and co are far superior

 

5.) Running Backs:  Advantage Pats/Cam.  OO i agree Michel / White are superior and hv more familiarity with their system

 

6.) Offensive Line:  Advantage Pats/Cam.  O smaller advantage since scrambling qbs can negate the effect of both good and bad olines 

 

7.) QB Passing:   Advantage Pats/Cam. O difference is not OO because it is affected by no. 4. also how good is cam’s shoulder and his post rust timing?

 

8.) Defense:  Advantage Bills/Allen. X based off last year this shd be an OO (and against any other opponent will at least be XX) but Pats opt outs will hurt em a bit

 

9.) Intangibles - QB heart Advantage Bills / Allen. X JA is a gamer who can will a team to a win down the stretch. Amazing how after we fell behind in the playoff game - he kept us in it drive after drive.

 

7-6 good guys

[Doc]

Disagree on 6 and 7.  Cannon is a loss, losing Scarnecchia was a huge loss, and their receivers are lousy.

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Biggest loss to the Pats this off season was their O-Line coach. Watch how bad that line looks this year and how dysfunctional the locker room gets without Belichick apologists sprinkled on the roster and staff.

 

 

 

 

They have two outstanding guards. Shaq Mason is elite. Whether Andrews is back fully healthy is a question and Wynn is a similar prospect to Dawkins but just a tad behind at this stage. 

 

The Pats have had under talented lines that they have "coached up" in the past. But this is not one. This group is legit. 

6 minutes ago, Doc said:

Disagree on 6 and 7.  Cannon is a loss, losing Scarnecchia was a huge loss, and their receivers are lousy.

 

Cannon is a loss but they are better than us at both guard spots (a bit on the left side and a LOT on the right). We probably have a small advantage at left tackle. If Andrews is back to his best post injury centre is pretty close though I probably would go Morse in a pinch.

[MJS]

James White is good but he's nowhere near elite. Their rushing attack took a big step back last year compared to 2018. White's stats, both rushing and receiving, were down from 2018 as well. I think that is due to worse oline play.

 

I'd take Singletary over any back they have and it's not even close. Moss is a rookie. We expect a lot from him but we'll have to wait and see. But I think by year's end the Bills will make a name for themselves as having one of the better running back tandems in the league. But that is projecting. No way of knowing for sure how things go.

 

The Pats are getting starting C Andrews back from IR but lost their starting RT to an opt out. They drafted three olinemen. Chances are the right side of their oline will be very inexperienced. I think their oline gets worse this year, especially without Brady who gets the ball out very quickly. And I think the Bills oline gets better with most starters returning and being in their 2nd year together. I think it is a wash between the pats and bills as far as oline.

[eball]

1 minute ago, MJS said:

I'd take Singletary over any back they have and it's not even close. Moss is a rookie. We expect a lot from him but we'll have to wait and see. But I think by year's end the Bills will make a name for themselves as having one of the better running back tandems in the league. But that is projecting. No way of knowing for sure how things go.

 

I think it's easier to predict RB success than that.  RB is probably the easiest transition from college to the pros, and typically the only thing you hear that takes time to learn is picking up blitzes if they didn't have to do that in college.  Moss is a stud.

[MJS]

Just now, eball said:

 

I think it's easier to predict RB success than that.  RB is probably the easiest transition from college to the pros, and typically the only thing you hear that takes time to learn is picking up blitzes if they didn't have to do that in college.  Moss is a stud.

It's also our coaches who like to bring rookies along slowly. Singletary was CLEARLY the better back but they refused to take touches away from an increasingly ineffective Gore until later in the season. Singletary also got hurt, but it's clear they wanted to increase his work load slowly. They might do the same with Moss.

 

And also Daboll seems to prefer the pass and I doubt that he will pound the rock as much as he should.

[eball]

11 minutes ago, MJS said:

It's also our coaches who like to bring rookies along slowly. Singletary was CLEARLY the better back but they refused to take touches away from an increasingly ineffective Gore until later in the season. Singletary also got hurt, but it's clear they wanted to increase his work load slowly. They might do the same with Moss.

 

And also Daboll seems to prefer the pass and I doubt that he will pound the rock as much as he should.

 

Singletary's injury in W2 played a significant role in how the RBs were used.  Gore also started out playing extremely well.  This season they've hopefully got two young, healthy backs ready to roll right out of the gate.  I look back at Singletary's performance in the playoff game and get excited about what this season holds.

[GunnerBill]

18 minutes ago, MJS said:

James White is good but he's nowhere near elite. Their rushing attack took a big step back last year compared to 2018. White's stats, both rushing and receiving, were down from 2018 as well. I think that is due to worse oline play.

 

I'd take Singletary over any back they have and it's not even close. Moss is a rookie. We expect a lot from him but we'll have to wait and see. But I think by year's end the Bills will make a name for themselves as having one of the better running back tandems in the league. But that is projecting. No way of knowing for sure how things go.

 

The Pats are getting starting C Andrews back from IR but lost their starting RT to an opt out. They drafted three olinemen. Chances are the right side of their oline will be very inexperienced. I think their oline gets worse this year, especially without Brady who gets the ball out very quickly. And I think the Bills oline gets better with most starters returning and being in their 2nd year together. I think it is a wash between the pats and bills as far as oline.

 

Right tackle will certainly be inexperienced for New England. But their right guard is elite. As of now their oline is better but it is certainly possible there is improvement to come from the Bills because while Spain and Morse were good last year I think both have played better in their NFL careers and if they can get to their best level in year 2 in the scheme then the Bills line - certainly LT through to center - will be among the league's best. 

[machine gun kelly]

MJS, serious question not critical.  Does Daboll really favor passing, or did he know last year he had a rookie, a 148 yr. old RB., and a mediocre RB, but good pass Cather in Yeldon?  I don’t know as maybe we are pleasantly surprised when he has Motor, Moss, and Yeldon, and probably continues to do some designated runs for Allen as it works.  Allen seems to get dinged up in the pocket occasionally, but I’ve felt good about him last year as he seemed to slide or run out of bounds a bit better than his rookie year.

 

Im guessing we end up as the second best running teams on the league probably again behind Baltimore.  TN will be close as Henry is a monster.  With all that said in running, we will also increase our passing yards significantly with Diggs, the other two and Davis when we need him.  Don’t sleep on that guy.  Watching him for as long as I have on UCF games as they are almost always on in Tampa throughout the college season.  Brandon Marshall was right.  He is an incredible route runner, and disguises his routes like no WR I’ve ever seen.  Mark my words in a couple of years as Beasley and Brown age as they are already 31 and 30, these guys will emerge.  Don’t get me wrong, I love Brown and Beasley, but the old Father Time never loses argument does make sense when they are 32-35.  We have these young guys on the cheap for four years.  That gets me excited for the future.