What would/should a Milano extension look like?

[ghostwriter]

3 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

 

That seems to be the sense from a lot of people and that’s why the discussion is important. The market is saying that he’s going to get paid a good bit more than that. For me the number in my head at the moment (which changes a lot) is about $10M a year. With the money saved on Spain I’d be willing to go to $12M but would need some injury protection and an out. It would probably be 4 years after this one with an out after the 2022 season. That way if I needed money for Josh or Edmunds I could find some. 

He is a good player, a solid player but not a great player. 9$M-10$M is what a very good player if not borderline elite player should receive. I’ll acknowledge though that there is a wildcard involved here. I saw leaked photos of Milano and he looks like a hammer, his conditioning is absurd. Looks like he is up to 240-245lbs now. He really looks like he has a lot more power now which was my biggest knock on him. Very good in coverage but I’d like to see him act as a hammer in run support. Let him play out his deal and if he shows improvement go ahead and offer him $9M-$10M a year. If he is willing to take a team friendly deal now however I would absolutely go for it. Once again though I feel it’s unwise to give good players great contracts, it’ll get us into cap trouble down the line. Buffalo is going to have to make some very very difficult choices in the future, we are a powerhouse. It sounds really weird to say but it’s true. We can’t pay everyone, we must identify key players to build around and Milano isn’t one of them.

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

6 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

But he isnt. He's getting #12 money.

But at a 15 mil per year average he really is and in the top 5 according to spotrac. 

[Orlando Buffalo]

3 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

I’m not going to pretend to have an informed opinion about how much Milano should receive.  There are three things though that I feel pretty confident about;

 

1.  Milano should not be the highest paid LB in the League

2.  Milano is not even the best LB on the team

3.  Milano is a stud and a vital part of the D and he needs to be resigned

 

I’ll leave the rest to Beane who I trust to thread the needle again.

 

The only word in this I disagree with is stud, but that might be simply personal definition. His greatest asset is his ability to run fast. He can't take on lineman and he won't make a bad defense good. He is the perfect complementary player, like Don Beebe.

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:

That’s an argument that the Bills will make. Milano’s agent will be using the stat argument. That’s kind of the point. That’s why this is a lot more complicated of a negotiation than the other extensions IMO.

Yeh I get that. I just don't think there's a ton of wiggle room in trying to justify saying a base 4-3 WILL does the same things as a hybrid big nickel OLB/safety.  Thompson is in a different league from Milano, and iirc the Panthers were in a 3-4 the majority of Thompson's time there so I doubt the stat argument will fly.

[DrDawkinstein]

9 minutes ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

But at a 15 mil per year average he really is and in the top 5 according to spotrac. 

 

I'll refer you back to the Dawkins thread. It isnt a 4yr/$60M contract. It is 5 yr/$61M. Which is $12.2M/year.

 

I understand both sides of the argument, because it comes down to how you want to slice this last year of his rookie deal.

 

It's a smart contract because it gives the Bills a $12.2M averge, but the player can think of his next contract as $15M avg.

 

Edited August 14, 2020 by DrDawkinstein

[Kirby Jackson]

8 minutes ago, Victory Formation said:

He is a good player, a solid player but not a great player. 9$M-10$M is what a very good player if not borderline elite player should receive. I’ll acknowledge though that there is a wildcard involved here. I saw leaked photos of Milano and he looks like a hammer, his conditioning is absurd. Looks like he is up to 240-245lbs now. He really looks like he has a lot more power now which was my biggest knock on him. Very good in coverage but I’d like to see him act as a hammer in run support. Let him play out his deal and if he shows improvement go ahead and offer him $9M-$10M a year. If he is willing to take a team friendly deal now however I would absolutely go for it. Once again though I feel it’s unwise to give good players great contracts, it’ll get us into cap trouble down the line. Buffalo is going to have to make some very very difficult choices in the future, we are a powerhouse. It sounds really weird to say but it’s true. We can’t pay everyone, we must identify key players to build around and Milano isn’t one of them.

$9m-$10 would be an extremely team friendly deal. It’s all based on comps. If Shaq Thompson is the comp at $13.6M we should be saying, “I’d be willing to stretch to $9m for Milano.” That’s not how it works. Team friendly would be like $12M a year. Market value would be $14M. If we don’t like that I get it. I don’t think I’d go there but he certainly isn’t looking at $9M.

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:

$9m-$10 would be an extremely team friendly deal. It’s all based on comps. If Shaq Thompson is the comp at $13.6M we should be saying, “I’d be willing to stretch to $9m for Milano.” That’s not how it works. Team friendly would be like $12M a year. Market value would be $14M. If we don’t like that I get it. I don’t think I’d go there but he certainly isn’t looking at $9M.

If you are basing these figures off the BR article on Milano's contract comps I have to say that guy using Thompson' contract hasn't watched enough of him to understand it's a bad analogy imo

[Kirby Jackson]

7 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Yeh I get that. I just don't think there's a ton of wiggle room in trying to justify saying a base 4-3 WILL does the same things as a hybrid big nickel OLB/safety.  Thompson is in a different league from Milano, and iirc the Panthers were in a 3-4 the majority of Thompson's time there so I doubt the stat argument will fly.

I don’t disagree but that’s his leverage. You can say, as a “coverage Lb” Milano did ___ and Shaq did ____. His agent isn’t going to just say “I get it, my client was more productive we will take 75% of Thompson’s deal.” I’d be hoping for $10M and would go to $12M. I am not sure that gets its done. 

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

I'll refer you back to the Dawkins thread. It isnt a 4yr/$60M contract. It is 5 yr/$61M. Which is $12.2M/year.

People can refer all they want, this season will be a total ***** show and the SB winner will hold less value than even the Patriots SB's. Next year might be better but every place I look has Dawkins at a 15 mil a year average and that's what we will be paying him in 2021 so he is being paid as a top 5 LT in my eyes. 

[Kirby Jackson]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

If you are basing these figures off the BR article on Milano's contract comps I have to say that guy using Thompson' contract hasn't watched enough of him to understand it's a bad analogy imo

Anthony Barr was the other comp and think that they are different. The point remains that we are under shooting it. He isn’t signing something like 4 years $35M imo. We will see I guess.

[GoBills808]

Like Poyer, I think our FO will be able to accurately judge Milano's value in this system and I would be very surprised if it's anywhere even remotely close to $14M/yr

[DrDawkinstein]

1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Anthony Barr was the other comp and think that they are different. The point remains that we are under shooting it. He isn’t signing something like 4 years $35M imo. We will see I guess.

 

I hope youre as wrong about this as you were right about Dawkins

 

But I hear ya.

[HappyDays]

I could be way off base here but I don't think other teams will value Milano as much as we do. He's a situational/scheme specific player. He can't plug and play in any defense. I could see us paying him $10 million a year, that sounds about right. I don't think he's get more than that on the open market.

[aristocrat]

if we don't sign him and he gets big money elsewhere we get that ever important comp pick.  milano i kind of go back and forth on.  he has those moments where he just hits the hole and stuffs some rb and then he has some bonehead moments.  if we lose him i trust beane can get a solid replacement.  you can't pay everyone

[ColoradoBills]

I feel if Milano held out for big money due to his "stats" he risks going to a team that he doesn't fit into well.  IF that happened he

could have the chance of not making the full contract with that team.

 

When it's all said and done I think he stays in Buffalo and is more than happy fitting into the D and settles around 10 million per year.

[Kirby Jackson]

14 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

I hope youre as wrong about this as you were right about Dawkins

 

But I hear ya.

This one is definitely trickier. Dawkins at 4 for $60M felt pretty fair to both sides. It was a lot less complicated. Milano’s situation is fluid but I think we are dreaming to think that it is below $10M AAV as of today. That would be a bargain. The market is just different. Bandit just gave Martinez & Littleton as examples.

[BuffBillsForLife]

I would never give big money to a non-pass rushing OLB, that's just insane when LB is one of the easiest holes to plug in the draft.  If I'm backing up the brinks truck for a LB it's going to be Edmunds, and no way am I paying two linebackers north of $30m/yr combined.  I thank him for all of his hard work and hope he gets that well-earned payday somewhere, but he can't take up that much cap space when we have to extend Tre White to a mega deal next year and then Edmunds and Allen (who will hopefully deserve his own mega deal) the year after that.  You can't keep everyone you draft, but WANTING to is a sign of being a good drafter.

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, Victory Formation said:

He is a good player, a solid player but not a great player. 9$M-10$M is what a very good player if not borderline elite player should receive. I’ll acknowledge though that there is a wildcard involved here. I saw leaked photos of Milano and he looks like a hammer, his conditioning is absurd. Looks like he is up to 240-245lbs now. He really looks like he has a lot more power now which was my biggest knock on him. Very good in coverage but I’d like to see him act as a hammer in run support. Let him play out his deal and if he shows improvement go ahead and offer him $9M-$10M a year. If he is willing to take a team friendly deal now however I would absolutely go for it. Once again though I feel it’s unwise to give good players great contracts, it’ll get us into cap trouble down the line. Buffalo is going to have to make some very very difficult choices in the future, we are a powerhouse. It sounds really weird to say but it’s true. We can’t pay everyone, we must identify key players to build around and Milano isn’t one of them.

 

$9-10m is not borderline elite money anymore. It is good proven starter money. Milano definitely meets that criteria.

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

I could be way off base here but I don't think other teams will value Milano as much as we do. He's a situational/scheme specific player. He can't plug and play in any defense. I could see us paying him $10 million a year, that sounds about right. I don't think he's get more than that on the open market.

 

You are misreading the market. Blake Martinez just got $10m. Milano gets more than him. 

2 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Like Poyer, I think our FO will be able to accurately judge Milano's value in this system and I would be very surprised if it's anywhere even remotely close to $14M/yr

 

Oh the Bills won't pay Milano $14m per. No way. I think $10m is probably where the Bills would go. They might stretch to $11m. If he tests the market he is in the $12-14m range off some team, but he won't get that if he wants to stay in Buffalo.

[eball]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Oh the Bills won't pay Milano $14m per. No way. I think $10m is probably where the Bills would go. They might stretch to $11m. If he tests the market he is in the $12-14m range off some team, but he won't get that if he wants to stay in Buffalo.

Exactly right. This is where we see just how much wanting to stay in Buffalo and continue playing for McDermott means.