What would/should a Milano extension look like?

[Kirby Jackson]

There is a lot of discussion in the “who is next” thread about Milano. He’s in the last year of his deal and seems to be pretty polarizing when it comes to his next contract. I felt that this discussion needed to be broken out to talk just about Milano and the numbers. Is Milano’s playmaking ability the product of the system or the reason that the system is so effective? It’s a little chicken and egg
 

In my opinion the Bills came into this offseason wanting to extend Dawkins, Spain and Milano (obviously Beane and McDermott too but they don’t factor into the cap). The Bills probably had a total number in mind for these 3. Dawkins contract is probably almost exactly what they expected. Spain was a bargain for the Bills. He was probably $2m-$3M less than they expected on an annual basis. What they expect for Milano is anybody’s guess. It seems like most projections are in the $14M a year range. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.buffalorumblings.com/platform/amp/2020/3/2/21157016/contract-projection-for-buffalo-bills-linebacker-matt-milano-highest-paid-linebacker-in-the-nfl
 

Would you be comfortable with Milano at roughly the same deal that Dawkins just signed? Let’s say 4 years and $56M. If not, what would your contract offer to Milano be? 

 

 

[ghostwriter]

Mmmmm 7-8$M annually. 4yrs $30M total.

[Captain Hindsight]

 

[DrDawkinstein]

5 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Would you be comfortable with Milano at roughly the same deal that Dawkins just signed? Let’s say 4 years and $56M. If not, what would your contract offer to Milano be? 

 

Not at all.

 

I'm thinking more like Trent Murphy money.

 

I'd give him a 3 year extension, $21M-25M total.

 

Those $14M/yr projections are INSANE. If that is anywhere close to reality we have to let him walk. He is a system LB who has played well in Buffalo and for McD. Hopefully he realizes how lucky he got as a 5th round pick.

 

 

Edited August 14, 2020 by DrDawkinstein

[LeviF]

3 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

There is a lot of discussion in the “who is next” thread about Milano. He’s in the last year of his deal and seems to be pretty polarizing when it comes to his next contract. I felt that this discussion needed to be broken out to talk just about Milano and the numbers. Is Milano’s playmaking ability the product of the system or the reason that the system is so effective? It’s a little chicken and egg
 

In my opinion the Bills came into this offseason wanting to extend Dawkins, Spain and Milano (obviously Beane and McDermott too but they don’t factor into the cap). The Bills probably had a total number in mind for these 3. Dawkins contract is probably almost exactly what they expected. Spain was a bargain for the Bills. He was probably $2m-$3M less than they expected on an annual basis. What they expect for Milano is anybody’s guess. It seems like most projections are in the $14M a year range. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.buffalorumblings.com/platform/amp/2020/3/2/21157016/contract-projection-for-buffalo-bills-linebacker-matt-milano-highest-paid-linebacker-in-the-nfl
 

Would you be comfortable with Milano at roughly the same deal that Dawkins just signed? Let’s say 4 years and $56M. If not, what would your contract offer to Milano be? 

 

 

 

For context, $14M salary this year would make Milano the 12th highest paid LB in the league.  Even excluding guys on their rookie deals still, Milano is not close to being the 12th best LB in the league.

[947]

I think Milano is an ideal for the Bills defense, and not so much for most other teams. While I think he's worth a pretty big deal to us, I don't think he'll get as much because of that limited market for him. Don't get me wrong, I absolutely want him locked up, but I don't think he'll get close to Dawkins' deal.

[Kirby Jackson]

4 minutes ago, Victory Formation said:

Mmmmm 7-8$M annually. 4yrs $30M total.

 

3 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Not at all.

 

I'm thinking more like Trent Murphy money.

 

I'd give him a 3 year extension, at about $21M-25M total.

That seems to be the sense from a lot of people and that’s why the discussion is important. The market is saying that he’s going to get paid a good bit more than that. For me the number in my head at the moment (which changes a lot) is about $10M a year. With the money saved on Spain I’d be willing to go to $12M but would need some injury protection and an out. It would probably be 4 years after this one with an out after the 2022 season. That way if I needed money for Josh or Edmunds I could find some. 

Edited August 14, 2020 by Kirby Jackson

[Virgil]

When comparing him to other OLB's, you need to make sure you aren't looking at edge rushers numbers.  From a coverage OLB perspective, I can see the 8-10 mil range.  He's a solid performer, but not an all-pro.  He's not one I would over-pay for a future deal.

[DrDawkinstein]

2 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

 

That seems to be the sense from a lot of people and that’s why the discussion is important. The market is saying that he’s going to get paid a good bit more than that. For me the number in my head at the moment (which it changes a lot) is about $10M a year. With the money saved on Spain I’d be willing to go to $12M but would need some injury protection and an out. It would probably be 4 years after this one with an out after the 2022 season. That way if I needed money for Josh or Edmunds I could find some. 

 

I would not go to an 8-figure number.

 

If that is really what he can get, then more power to him and good luck on the next team.

 

I'd see that play out much like an Andy Levitre situation. Go get paid, and never really play well with all the injuries.

 

I wouldnt fault him for going for that money, and I wouldnt fault the Bills for letting him walk.

 

 

Edited August 14, 2020 by DrDawkinstein

[Inigo Montoya]

I’m not going to pretend to have an informed opinion about how much Milano should receive.  There are three things though that I feel pretty confident about;

 

1.  Milano should not be the highest paid LB in the League

2.  Milano is not even the best LB on the team

3.  Milano is a stud and a vital part of the D and he needs to be resigned

 

I’ll leave the rest to Beane who I trust to thread the needle again.

 

Edited August 14, 2020 by Inigo Montoya

[Kirby Jackson]

7 minutes ago, Virgil said:

When comparing him to other OLB's, you need to make sure you aren't looking at edge rushers numbers.  From a coverage OLB perspective, I can see the 8-10 mil range.  He's a solid performer, but not an all-pro.  He's not one I would over-pay for a future deal.

That’s why the Shaq Thompson contract is the one that they use for comparison. It really is an interesting dilemma IMO. I think that I’m higher on Milano than most but at the same time there is a line. It doesn’t sound like many people (including me) are even willing to go to the market value on him. 

6 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

I would not go to an 8-figure number.

 

If that is really what he can get, then more power to him and good luck on the next team.

 

I'd see that play out much like an Andy Levitre situation. Go get paid, and never really play well with all the injuries.

 

I wouldnt fault him for going for that money, and I wouldnt fault the Bills for letting him walk.

 

 

That may be how this plays out.

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

22 minutes ago, LeviF91 said:

 

For context, $14M salary this year would make Milano the 12th highest paid LB in the league.  Even excluding guys on their rookie deals still, Milano is not close to being the 12th best LB in the league.

 

I think it would make him higher than that. Most of those LB pay lists include pass rushers like Mack and Von Miller. Milano is in an entirely different category of player. 

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

16 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

That’s why the Shaq Thompson contract is the one that they use for comparison. It really is an interesting dilemma IMO. I think that I’m higher on Milano than most but at the same time there is a line. It doesn’t sound like many people (including me) are even willing to go to the market value on him. 

That may be how this plays out.

 

Is Shaq the "market value" though? Milano is not Shaq, and I don't think market value for a non-pro bowl, non-pass rushing OLB is even $10M.  I sort of think the position is the RB of the defense--more easily replaced than other positions, and not worth major salary cap investment. 

[LeviF]

3 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

I think it would make him higher than that. Most of those LB pay lists include pass rushers like Mack and Von Miller. Milano is in an entirely different category of player. 

 

Yes, which makes the point even more salient. I think Milano is a decent LB.  Way outclassed his draft status, to be sure.  But $14M AAV would be insane.  Maybe he'll go get $10-12M AAV somewhere but I doubt it'll be here.  This may be a situation where they can't figure out an extension number and let him go see what's out there.

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

19 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

That’s why the Shaq Thompson contract is the one that they use for comparison. It really is an interesting dilemma IMO. I think that I’m higher on Milano than most but at the same time there is a line. It doesn’t sound like many people (including me) are even willing to go to the market value on him. 

That may be how this plays out.

I previously advocated letting him walk assuming he would get at least 12-13m AAV but I was thinking yesterday that, considering his humble lifestyle, he may have different priorities than others and may be the type to take lower numbers to stay in a place and situation where he's happy. If it's around say $9-10m can we pass it up?

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

1 minute ago, LeviF91 said:

 

Yes, which makes the point even more salient. I think Milano is a decent LB.  Way outclassed his draft status, to be sure.  But $14M AAV would be insane.  Maybe he'll go get $10-12M AAV somewhere but I doubt it'll be here.  This may be a situation where they can't figure out an extension number and let him go see what's out there.

 

I just said this above, but I'll say it again in response to you:  I sort of think the non-pass rushing, non-pass rushing OLB  is the RB of the defense--more easily replaced than other positions, and not worth major salary cap investment. What do you think? 

[klos63]

30 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

 

That seems to be the sense from a lot of people and that’s why the discussion is important. The market is saying that he’s going to get paid a good bit more than that. For me the number in my head at the moment (which changes a lot) is about $10M a year. With the money saved on Spain I’d be willing to go to $12M but would need some injury protection and an out. It would probably be 4 years after this one with an out after the 2022 season. That way if I needed money for Josh or Edmunds I could find some. 

Really don't think you can say that we 'saved' money on the Spain deal, anyways, you pay Milano what you think he's worth. I can't see $14 million, but $10 maybe with an out after 2 or 3 years. This team is designed to win in the next 2 seasons. Milano should be part of that team.

[JustWinPlease]

The last time Beane and McDermott had a 5th round stud coming up for a big contact, they let him walk.

Josh Norman in Carolina...he was another "system player," like Milano.

Vosean Joseph, it's time to shine!

[LeviF]

2 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

I just said this above, but I'll say it again in response to you:  I sort of think the non-pass rushing, non-pass rushing OLB  is the RB of the defense--more easily replaced than other positions, and not worth major salary cap investment. What do you think? 

 

Replaceable to the level of the NFL RB at this point?  I'm not sure that's the case with McDermott's defense.  He seems to ask a lot of the weakside linebacker.  Somebody with more knowledge of NFL defenses could answer better.

[DrDawkinstein]

Just now, JustWinPlease said:

The last time Beane and McDermott had a 5th round stud coming up for a big contact, they let him walk.

Josh Norman in Carolina...he was another "system player," like Milano.

Vosean Joseph, it's time to shine!

 

Great point.

 

Hopefully Norman has some advice for Milano on how that worked out. But I'm not sure anyone would ever say "Don't get paid".