Gunner's roster thread.... 2020 style - UPDATED

[YattaOkasan]

1 minute ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

I agree with you about much less roster churn this year after final cut down day, however QB likely is the one exception as plenty of tape on him.  There's also plenty of college tape on him and as was mentioned add in the Covid concerns, think he'd get snatched.  Wouldn't be shocked if many more teams carry 3 QB's this season than other years.  One of his strengths is smarts, weakness arm strength to some degree.  In the Covid era, having a QB who can learn the offense quickly would help.

 

To your last question why did they draft him, likely the answer is they never expected him to drop that far so by taking him, they just likely signed Barkley's replacement for next season when his contract runs out.

I agree QB is a spot on the roster that I am more concerned there will still be claims made. 

 

Covid was ongoing during the draft and many teams knew there wasnt gonna be the typically amount of time with players in the off season.  I don't think that has changed that much since then.  His strength is his mental processing yes, but that was in one system (I assume UGA didnt change OCs) so I'm not sure the league would think agree he can learn an offense quickly (if there was a preseason and he could show this I would be scared).

 

I agree he will replace Barkley eventually (really need better there), but Beane flat said he didnt expect a QB so its not like they were looking to make that investment so I don't think they are that tied to him.  

 

Again he probably makes the roster but he is far from a lock in my opinion.  

[eball]

7 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

The only thing that may keep Smith around is his veteran leadership.

 

I would agree with that if we were not now in year four of McD's regime.  I think it's clear that there are a number of leaders in the locker room and I don't think Smith is "needed" in that capacity.

[YattaOkasan]

2 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

80% in general but for QB's and with his resume, I'd bump that up higher.  I'd be very surprised if he were not picked up by another team if released.

Generally teams arent as deep as ours so I would argue that bumps it right back down. 

 

Being picked up by another team is not necessarily a good indicator of if he'll make our team either.  It was in the past cause were werent deep, but we had several players get picked up last year after cuts.  We will cut players that can make an NFL roster like we did last year, which means many players that could make a roster are definitely not locks.

 

I think were splitting hairs at this point.  We both agree hes likely gonna make it; I just see a reasonable path where he doesnt make the team (he has a weak arm and maybe he cant process quick enough as a rookie).

[Dr. Who]

8 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

I agree QB is a spot on the roster that I am more concerned there will still be claims made. 

 

Covid was ongoing during the draft and many teams knew there wasnt gonna be the typically amount of time with players in the off season.  I don't think that has changed that much since then.  His strength is his mental processing yes, but that was in one system (I assume UGA didnt change OCs) so I'm not sure the league would think agree he can learn an offense quickly (if there was a preseason and he could show this I would be scared).

 

I agree he will replace Barkley eventually (really need better there), but Beane flat said he didnt expect a QB so its not like they were looking to make that investment so I don't think they are that tied to him.  

 

Again he probably makes the roster but he is far from a lock in my opinion.  

James Coley was ineffective as OC last year for UGA. He was replaced by Todd Monken. Jim Chaney was OC Fromm's first two years when he had more success. 

[GunnerBill]

15 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

The only thing that may keep Smith around is his veteran leadership. 

 

And to block. And to give them a backup option to longsnap in a world where your long snapper could go on the covid list and 2 minutes notice. 

 

I get it, fans don't like Lee Smith. They better get used to the idea he will be here. 

[YattaOkasan]

4 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

James Coley was ineffective as OC last year for UGA. He was replaced by Todd Monken. Jim Chaney was OC Fromm's first two years when he had more success. 

Thanks.  I do find ability to beat out a lot of other QBs in a competition very intriguing.  Will be interested to see if that translates to the NFL.

[No_Matter_What]

Lock means 99+% in your book Gunner?

 

I'd set the bar on 95% and add Matakevich, Norman and Phillips. I get there might be some doubts about Phillips or Norman but they still count as locks imo.

 

When doing this I'd add 4th color for reverse locks, i.e. guys with less than 5% to make the team. I guess gyus like Easley, Walton, Harrell or Scott are not effectively fighting for the roster spot. 

[MJS]

1 hour ago, YattaOkasan said:

Yeah most definitely but were talking about roster locks.  They have a 80% likelihood of making the roster across the league.  So thats a really good chance but not a lock imo so thats why I would have him in blue.

Yeah, I don't think he's a lock. I wasn't saying that. I just think he might get poached if we put him on the practice squad.

Edited August 13, 2020 by MJS

[Kirby Jackson]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

And to block. And to give them a backup option to longsnap in a world where your long snapper could go on the covid list and 2 minutes notice. 

 

I get it, fans don't like Lee Smith. They better get used to the idea he will be here. 

I’m not sure that he will. The Bills are going to have 3 receivers on the field a lot. Knox spent the offseason working with Kittle. He should take a step forward there too. Kroft’s restructured deal pretty much assures him of a roster spot. Sweeney isn’t the blocker that Smith is but he’s not bad. He’s miles ahead as a receiver. When he was given a chance last year he produced. I expect to see more of him.
 

Additionally, they save $1.7M by cutting Smith. If they keep 4 TEs again he will likely be on the roster. If that 4th TE is dropped in favor of a 2nd kicker, a 3rd QB or an extra WR I don’t think that he will be. They’ll use an extra OL or Sweeney to fill Smith’s role. He’s very much on the bubble IMO. 

Edited August 13, 2020 by Kirby Jackson

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

And to block. And to give them a backup option to longsnap in a world where your long snapper could go on the covid list and 2 minutes notice. 

 

I get it, fans don't like Lee Smith. They better get used to the idea he will be here. 

 

But is there still an advantage with him over Know or Sweeney WRT blocking?  Particularly when the defense knows if Smith is one the field, that's one less player we're going to  worry about much in coverage.  Yes Smith is better, but is it still large enough gap to keep him especially after netting out all the penalties.

 

Didn't realize he was the backup long snapper, but also don't know if anyone else on the roster has experience in that area either.  We do have a number of lineman who at some point played center, so not sure they haven't also done some long snapping particularly since many of these guys were more backups.  Having some long snapping experience on your resume when you're a bottom of the roster guy to begin with would be beneficial for them.

 

I'm not an anti Smith guy, but do think that roster spot could be filled more efficiently other ways and don't think it's as much of a slam dunk that he sticks as you make it sound and one injury between now and September can change this all around too.  Will see soon enough.

[GunnerBill]

35 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I’m not sure that he will. The Bills are going to have 3 receivers on the field a lot. Knox spent the offseason working with Kittle. He should take a step forward there too. Kroft’s restructured deal pretty much assures him of a roster spot. Sweeney isn’t the blocker that Smith is but he’s not bad. He’s miles ahead as a receiver. When he was given a chance last year he produced. I expect to see more of him.
 

Additionally, they save $1.7M by cutting Smith. If they keep 4 TEs again he will likely be on the roster. If that 4th TE is dropped in favor of a 2nd kicker, a 3rd QB or an extra WR I don’t think that he will be. They’ll use an extra OL or Sweeney to fill Smith’s role. He’s very much on the bubble IMO. 

 

Disagree. Think you want him to be, but he isn't IMO. While I don't think he is a lock, I think Smith is the 2nd most likely TE to be here after Knox.

15 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

But is there still an advantage with him over Know or Sweeney WRT blocking?  Particularly when the defense knows if Smith is one the field, that's one less player we're going to  worry about much in coverage.  Yes Smith is better, but is it still large enough gap to keep him especially after netting out all the penalties.

 

Didn't realize he was the backup long snapper, but also don't know if anyone else on the roster has experience in that area either.  We do have a number of lineman who at some point played center, so not sure they haven't also done some long snapping particularly since many of these guys were more backups.  Having some long snapping experience on your resume when you're a bottom of the roster guy to begin with would be beneficial for them.

 

I'm not an anti Smith guy, but do think that roster spot could be filled more efficiently other ways and don't think it's as much of a slam dunk that he sticks as you make it sound and one injury between now and September can change this all around too.  Will see soon enough.

 

Yea. He is still a much better blocker than Sweeney. The only other person on the roster who has long snapped other than Smith is Feliciano. And he is hurt too. 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Disagree. Think you want him to be, but he isn't IMO. While I don't think he is a lock, I think Smith is the 2nd most likely TE to be here after Knox.

 

Yea. He is still a much better blocker than Sweeney. The only other person on the roster who has long snapped other than Smith is Feliciano. And he is hurt too. 

 

You're absolutely certain that guys like Winter, Boehm, Bates, Boettger, Adams, Ford, etc have absolutely no experience with long snapping? Even say in college as a backup, maybe never did it in a game, but was the 2nd or even 3rd string long snapper?

[Kirby Jackson]

13 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Disagree. Think you want him to be, but he isn't IMO. While I don't think he is a lock, I think Smith is the 2nd most likely TE to be here after Knox.

 

Yea. He is still a much better blocker than Sweeney. The only other person on the roster who has long snapped other than Smith is Feliciano. And he is hurt too. 

Oh I definitely want him to be gone. He’s a miserable football player that makes huge mistakes. He committed 8 penalties despite playing less than 30% of the offensive snaps!!  That’s absolutely atrocious. He had twice as many penalties as catches. He’s a great blocking TE but not as good of a blocker as an extra OL. He’s not a threat at all as a receiver. He was targeted 5 times. I just don’t see how that guy can be considered a lock or even likely? 
 

In terms of a backup long snapper you can keep a guy on the PS if you want (maybe even Smith). If you have that last minute Covid to Ferguson you activate the guy from the PS. That feels easy.

Edited August 13, 2020 by Kirby Jackson

[GunnerBill]

22 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

You're absolutely certain that guys like Winter, Boehm, Bates, Boettger, Adams, Ford, etc have absolutely no experience with long snapping? Even say in college as a backup, maybe never did it in a game, but was the 2nd or even 3rd string long snapper?

 

As in having done it in an NFL game. 

16 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Oh I definitely want him to be gone. He’s a miserable football player that makes huge mistakes. He committed 8 penalties despite playing less than 30% of the offensive snaps!!  That’s absolutely atrocious. He had twice as many penalties as catches. He’s a great blocking TE but not as good of a blocker as an extra OL. He’s not a threat at all as a receiver. He was targeted 5 times. I just don’t see how that guy can be considered a lock or even likely? 
 

In terms of a backup long snapper you can keep a guy on the PS if you want (maybe even Smith). If you have that last minute Covid to Ferguson you activate the guy from the PS. That feels easy.

 

Yea I think you are letting what you want happen cloud what you think will. 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

As in having done it in an NFL game. 

 

So what, that doesn't mean they can't be the back up long snapper.  Exactly how many long snaps has Smith done in his storied NFL career?

 

If the Bills are even the smallest bit intent on keeping Smith on the roster because he's the back up long snapper, I'd suggest we all find a different team to start rooting for because this team isn't going anyway.

 

If they can cut their starting RB last season, a guy who'd been to multiple pro-bowls, one of the league leaders in rushing, I think they can cut their back up long snapper!!

[Kirby Jackson]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

As in having done it in an NFL game. 

 

Yea I think you are letting what you want happen cloud what you think will. 

I’m not though. Knox is a lock. I think Kroft basically is with the restructured deal and I believe Sweeney is more likely to make the team than Smith. If they keep 4 TEs I think he’s a lock. I think if they keep 3 he’s out. With the competition at other positions and probably having to keep 3 QBs some spots are going to get squeezed. A 4th TE feels like that could be a spot that they pull from. It’s 50/50 to me.

[ColoradoBills]

@GunnerBill I have to agree with a couple of the other posters that Tyler Matakevich is a ST lock.

His contract guarantees it and he will be the ST Captain by next year at the latest.

[GunnerBill]

38 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I’m not though. Knox is a lock. I think Kroft basically is with the restructured deal and I believe Sweeney is more likely to make the team than Smith. If they keep 4 TEs I think he’s a lock. I think if they keep 3 he’s out. With the competition at other positions and probably having to keep 3 QBs some spots are going to get squeezed. A 4th TE feels like that could be a spot that they pull from. It’s 50/50 to me.

 

I think Knox is a lock. Smith is the only guy who can offer a real able blocker. That way you get down to Kroft or Sweeney who are similar and competing if they keep 3. 

 

I actually think they will keep 4. 

 

3 QBs

1 FB

3 RBs

6 WRs

4 TEs

9 OL

26 - offense

 

8 DL

5 LBs

9 DBs

23 - defense

 

2 K

1 P

1 LS

4 - STs

 

The reason being I think they will calculate they have a chance of sliding at least one of Joseph, Dodson, Thompson onto the PS at linebacker and their base defense actually only has 2 on the field. Similarly I am not sure they have 10 DBs worthy of a spot so 9 plus a Cam Lewis or a Dane Jackson on the practice squad makes sense. 

49 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

So what, that doesn't mean they can't be the back up long snapper.  Exactly how many long snaps has Smith done in his storied NFL career?

 

If the Bills are even the smallest bit intent on keeping Smith on the roster because he's the back up long snapper, I'd suggest we all find a different team to start rooting for because this team isn't going anyway.

 

If they can cut their starting RB last season, a guy who'd been to multiple pro-bowls, one of the league leaders in rushing, I think they can cut their back up long snapper!!

 

He did it in a game for the Raiders. 

 

To be clear I am NOT arguing that is why Smith sticks. He sticks because Brian Daboll wants an in line blocking tight end and he is the only one we have. But the fact he contributes something on teams helps his cause. 

[GoBills808]

They aren't cutting Neal

[GunnerBill]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

They aren't cutting Neal

 

Red does not mean "cut" but I agree he should probably be in blue. He is more likely than not to make it.