Gunner's roster thread.... 2020 style - UPDATED

[GunnerBill]

So this is a thread I do every year - usually at the end of mini camp and then it plays out through camp and pre-season. Obviously the timing is influenced this year by covid and the situation, but here is my roster thread. 

 

Key:

 

BLACK - Lock for the roster if healthy

BLUE - Likely to make it if healthy but not a lock

RED - Fighting for a spot

 

Note: Red does not mean no chance... it means fighting for a spot. Every year people get that wrong. 

 

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen

Matt Barkley

Jake Fromm

Davis Webb

 

Running backs

Zack Moss

Devin Singletary

Patrick DiMarco FB

Reggie Gilliam FB

Taiwan Jones

Christian Wade (Int.)

T. J. Yeldon

 

Wide receivers

Stefon Diggs

Cole Beasley

John Brown

Gabriel Davis

Andre Roberts

Robert Foster

Isaiah Hodgins

Isaiah McKenzie

Duke Williams

Nick Easley

 

Tight ends

Dawson Knox

Lee Smith

Tyler Kroft

Tommy Sweeney

Nate Becker

Jason Croom

 

Offensive line

Dion Dawkins

Jon Feliciano*

Cody Ford

Mitch Morse

Quinton Spain

Ty Nsekhe

Brian Winters

Daryl Williams

Ryan Bates

Trey Adams

Evan Boehm

Ike Boettger

Victor Salako

Brandon Walton 

Marquel Harrell 

 

Defensive line

Mario Addison

Vernon Butler

A. J. Epenesa

Jerry Hughes

Quinton Jefferson

Ed Oliver

Harrison Phillips

Darryl Johnson

Trent Murphy

Mike Love

Niles Scott

Vincent Taylor

Bryan Cox Jr.

 

Linebackers

A. J. Klein

Tremaine Edmunds

Matt Milano

Tyler Matakevich

Tyrel Dodson

Vosean Joseph

Del'Shawn Phillips

Corey Thompson

 

Corner

Taron Johnson

Levi Wallace

Tre'Davious White

Josh Norman

Siran Neal

Dane Jackson

Cam Lewis

Ike Brown

 

Safety

Micah Hyde

Jordan Poyer

Jaquan Johnson

Dean Marlowe

Josh Thomas

 

Specialists

Reid Ferguson

Steven Hauschka 

Tyler Bass

Corey Bojorquez

Kaare Vedvik

 

Conclusion

That gives me 31/53 locks and a further 12 who I think more than likely make it. That takes you to 43, and when you add in a punter (both in red at the moment but one of them or someone not currently on the roster will be there to punt) you get to 44 spots locked up. That mean you have 9 remaining roster spots to be fought for. Of those, they are all but certain to keep a 3rd running back, an 8th DL and at least a 5th linebacker and 5th corner. Then you have 5 spots that are genuine competitions and where it will come down to the positions they feel they need proven depth and the spots where they think they can get by worth having extra guys on the PS and calling them up for game day under the new rules. There could be an additional offensive line spot available at the start of the year as Feliciano is asterisked due to the known injury. If he starts the year on IR then another olineman will make it, and to be honest even if he doesn't they likely carry a 9th so that they can ride with Feliciano inactive for the first 3 or 4 weeks. 

Edited August 30, 2020 by GunnerBill

[BillsFanThru-N-Thru]

Great analysis Gunner ... Only change for me in your analysis is Boehm is more of a likely then fighting for a roster spot with the Jon Feliciano injury and the releasing of Long

[Alphadawg7]

I agree with most of this.  

 

Couple notes:  

1. I would have put TJ Yeldon in Blue as I think he likely makes the roster.   They obviously wont keep just 2 RB's when one is a rookie.  They tend to want to bring rookies along at a slower pace, and while I am certain Moss likely starts week 1 as Devin's backup, I still think they will want a veteran in that room given Devin still only has one season under his belt with this being a no preseason and COVID impacted camp.  
2. I think I would swap Sweeney and Smith in the red and blue.  I think Sweeney showed enough last year to have a leg up on Lee who doesn't offer much outside of blocking and has struggled with penalties while in Buffalo.  Especially with Kroft healthy and being their as a vet presence around Knox and Sweeney.
3. Harrison Phillips is a Lock, especially with Star opting out.  He was our best DT before getting hurt last year, and they love this guy.  I wouldn't have him in Blue

Outside of that, I would have put the list together the same everywhere else.  

Edited August 12, 2020 by Alphadawg7

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, BillsFanThru-N-Thru said:

Great analysis Gunner ... Only change for me in your analysis is Boehm is more of a likely then fighting for a roster spot with the Jon Feliciano injury and the releasing of Long

 

I think they will definitely keep one of Boehm and Bates to be their backup C... but 'cos I go back and forth on which one they are both on the in the fighting category for me. 

[Kirby Jackson]

I’d bump Taiwan to blue for special teams reasons.  McKenzie to blue. Sweeney to blue and Smith to red.  Winters to black. Harrison Phillips to black. Siran Neal to blue (or even black) and Marlowe to red. Hauschka to red.

[Rc2catch]

1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I’d bump Taiwan to blue for special teams reasons.  McKenzie to blue. Sweeney to blue and Smith to red.  Winters to black. Harrison Phillips to black. Siran Neal to blue (or even black) and Marlowe to red. Hauschka to red.

Siran Neal the 100mph man. 
Holy cow did that kids speed pop at the end of the season when he seen the field. 

[eball]

Well done.  Your guys in red that I'd change to blue:

 

RB:  Jones

WR:  McKenzie

OL:  Bates, Boehm

DL:  Johnson

CB:  Jackson

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I agree with most of this.  

 

Couple notes:  

1. I would have put TJ Yeldon in Blue as I think he likely makes the roster.   They obviously wont keep just 2 RB's when one is a rookie.  They tend to want to bring rookies along at a slower pace, and while I am certain Moss likely starts week 1 as Devin's backup, I still think they will want a veteran in that room given Devin still only has one season under his belt with this being a no preseason and COVID impacted camp.  
2. I think I would swap Sweeney and Smith in the red and blue.  I think Sweeney showed enough last year to have a leg up on Lee who doesn't offer much outside of blocking and has struggled with penalties while in Buffalo.  Especially with Kroft healthy and being their as a vet presence around Knox and Sweeney.
3. Harrison Phillips is a Lock, especially with Star opting out.  He was our best DT before getting hurt last year, and they love this guy.  I wouldn't have him in Blue

Outside of that, I would have put the list together the same everywhere else.  

 

So my reasoning on each is:

 

1. TJ Yeldon sucks as a runner. Taiwan Jones might be equally as effective as a runner, can catch it out of the backfield (though not as well as Yeldon admittedly) and is a special teams ace. I think one of those two makes the roster. But I think they are in direct competition and It is 51/49 for me.

2. Smith is making this roster. They want a blocking specialist. They want a vet in the room and he is also a backup long snapper and has done it in games for the Raiders. Given Covid teams will want to know they have someone who has done that in games before. He is just one of those guys that coaches always value higher than fans. If anything he should be in black, not blue. 

3. If Harrison has no ill effects from the injury he is a lock. The only reason I put him in blue is until I have seen him out on the field in a game there is a slight question about whether the knee is as good as before. 

 

 

[Royale with Cheese]

[MJS]

I almost doubt that all three of Ty Nsekhe, Brian Winters, and Daryl Williams make the roster. Whoever loses out could be traded.

 

I think Bates is very well thought of and valued for his ability to play all five spots on the line. I would put him in the blue category.

 

Harrison Phillips is a lock, in my book.

[Rocky Landing]

Probably one of the easier seasons to call, with the amount of continuity from last season, and the struggles of new players to make the 53.

 

I see you have Siran Neal down as a corner. I know he has that position flex, but he's listed as a safety, and I believe played after last season. I don't recall him playing corner at all last season, unless it was at nickel, and I missed it.

 

I'm surprised you have Taiwan Jones in red. I never liked him as a Bill, frankly, but I think they made a concerted effort to improve on ST, and I think he's a part of that. I would think he would be in blue.

 

 

Edited August 12, 2020 by Rocky Landing

[GunnerBill]

Just now, MJS said:

I almost doubt that all three of Ty Nsekhe, Brian Winters, and Daryl Williams make the roster. Whoever loses out could be traded.

 

I think Bates is very well thought of and valued for his ability to play all five spots on the line. I would put him in the blue category.

 

Harrison Phillips is a lock, in my book.

 

The fact I have had one person saying Boehm is almost a lock and one saying that about Bates pretty much proves to me they are both fighting for that spot. 

 

I do get where people are coming from on Harrison Phillips. If he is as good as before he is a lock. ACL is a big injury for a big guy like that which is my only doubt. 

2 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said:

Probably one of the easier seasons to call, with the amount of continuity from last season, and the struggles of new players to make the 53.

 

I see you have Siran Neal down as a corner. I know he has that position flex, but he's listed as a safety, and I believe played after last season. I don't recall him playing corner at all last season, unless it was at nickel, and I missed it.

 

I'm surprised you have Taiwan Jones in red. I never liked him as a Bill, frankly, but I think they made a concerted effort to improve on ST, and I think he's a part of that. I would think he would be in blue.

 

 

 

Siran played nickel when Taron missed time. I think basically they see him as a flexible guy who can be the backup nickel and play safety and is a core STer. 

[Don Otreply]

Good list GB, I agree with the majority of it, others have noted  changes that I would make. 
 

It is always exiting to watch the final selections unfold. 
 

Go Bills!!!

[MJS]

20 minutes ago, BillsFanThru-N-Thru said:

Great analysis Gunner ... Only change for me in your analysis is Boehm is more of a likely then fighting for a roster spot with the Jon Feliciano injury and the releasing of Long

I personally view that as a vote on confidence for Bates, who can play all 5 positions. But that's just me.

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The fact I have had one person saying Boehm is almost a lock and one saying that about Bates pretty much proves to me they are both fighting for that spot. 

 

I do get where people are coming from on Harrison Phillips. If he is as good as before he is a lock. ACL is a big injury for a big guy like that which is my only doubt. 

Yeah. I can see that. I just liked what I saw from Bates last year and I have a hunch the coaches did too.

 

We'll see how things shake out.

[Alphadawg7]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

So my reasoning on each is:

 

1. TJ Yeldon sucks as a runner. Taiwan Jones might be equally as effective as a runner, can catch it out of the backfield (though not as well as Yeldon admittedly) and is a special teams ace. I think one of those two makes the roster. But I think they are in direct competition and It is 51/49 for me.

2. Smith is making this roster. They want a blocking specialist. They want a vet in the room and he is also a backup long snapper and has done it in games for the Raiders. Given Covid teams will want to know they have someone who has done that in games before. He is just one of those guys that coaches always value higher than fans. If anything he should be in black, not blue. 

3. If Harrison has no ill effects from the injury he is a lock. The only reason I put him in blue is until I have seen him out on the field in a game there is a slight question about whether the knee is as good as before. 

 

 

 

All good responses and an original good right up.  

 

1.  I hear ya on the comparison there, and you're not wrong about the description of both guys.  But I think Yeldon has the edge because he knows the offense.  Jones has the edge on rushing ability, and Yeldon has the slight edge on pass catching ability.  And given Devin and Moss will be carrying the rock as runners predominantly, I think Yeldon's gadget value as a receiver and his edge of knowing the offense gives him that slight lead over Jones.  But of course, it will all come down to what they show in camp.  With this unique year, in close positional battles, I tend to give the edge to player with the most experience in our system.  Had this season been normal, I would 100% agree with you on Jones having the upper hand.  

 

2.  I totally get where you are coming from on Smith, and it all makes sense and I know the coaches like his leadership.  But at some point, his value as a player on the field compared to the upside of a younger player with promise has to come into play.  And I think Sweeney showed enough last year and has a lot of upside still to have a leg up on a one dimensional player on the field in Smith.  Plus, while a blocking specialist, he has probably been our worst offender, or at least one of them, in terms of dumb penalties.  

 

3.  We are obviously pretty close on Harrison, but like I said, Star opting out pretty much locks Horrible Harry in regardless if he still is working his way to his old self again.  Too much talent to let go of, especially with a roster spot on the DL opening up with Star opting out, even if he has some slight ill effects from his injury.  Especially given it may take a little more time for any player this year to get back to 100% with such a limited camp, they know that, and will give him the time.  So while we are mostly on the same page with him, he's in my mind a 100% unless he has some kind of significant setback that will cost him significant time.  

[GunnerBill]

Just now, MJS said:

I personally view that as a vote on confidence for Bates, who can play all 5 positions. But that's just me.

 

It will be one or the other for sure. I can see the argument for both. Just on the Bates ability to play all 5.... I am not sold he can play tackle. His RT play in week 17 was pretty rough. I suppose yes, he could do it in a pinch. 

[John from Riverside]

Great work as usual Gunner

 

I think Ryan Bates, TJ Yeldon, and V. Joseph all def make it.

[Rocky Landing]

I'll probably get flamed for this, but if it were a different year, with more time on the field before the opener, and with the additions to the O-line room, I might slide Quinten Spain into the blue. And, if Feliciano weren't injured, I'd put him into the blue, as well.

[eball]

Is anyone else really intrigued by OL Trey Adams?  This guy was going to be a beast before getting hurt.  He's gotta be super motivated as well.  Dark horse for the 53, or at least the PS?

[Rocky Landing]

7 minutes ago, eball said:

Is anyone else really intrigued by OL Trey Adams?  This guy was going to be a beast before getting hurt.  He's gotta be super motivated as well.  Dark horse for the 53, or at least the PS?

Know very little about him. I will look into him.

 

I'm actually thinking of Boettger as a dark horse O-line candidate. He knows the system, and was projected (think?) as a 1st-2nd rounder before getting injured his senior year. But, more importantly, I believe he's been subbed in at center from time to time, and with the loss of both Feliciano, and Long, that would be of considerable value. I know they like their backups to be flexible.

 

 

Edited August 12, 2020 by Rocky Landing