Duke back. CB King released.

[JESSEFEFFER]

I like his story and the type of player he is.  He should be way ahead of rookies and his body type is only matched by Davis. I am sure that if the Bills do waive him they'd love to stash him on the PS.  WRs get hurt all the time in normal years and Duke would be a great to have as an option to move to the active roster in 2020.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

13 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

I’m done with Duke, personally. I certainly bought in on the big WR who squandered early opportunities then led the CFL in catches & yards. Mostly, I suppose, because it was a glaring need. But Sean seeing serious liabilities in his route running, crippling drops at inopportune times and no noticeable improvement coupled with fantastic upgrades at the position, make him expendable. jmo.

 

@Chandler#81, can you say more about "Sean seeing serious liabilities in his route running"?

 

I think it's fair to say that if Beane still saw great potential for improvement still with Foster and with Williams, he probably wouldn't have used (effectively) 3 draft picks on WR.

[Gugny]

5 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Duke was active in the Jets game and a big part of the game plan with 12 targets (6 receptions).  So it's not as though he were thrown into the Houston game stone cold.

I'm not sure what improved roster management you would like to see, or what you would find fair as far as judging Duke?    He got 29 targets in 5 games and caught 55% of his targets. 

 

He played in three consecutive games in October, in which he had 7 targets and 6 catches.  Then he sat for 9 weeks and played in a throwaway game vs. the Jets, followed by the playoff game.

 

My hunch is that if he'd been on the field weekly (playing consistently), his target:catch ratio would have been much better.  But that's just a hunch .... because he sat for 9 weeks.

 

EDIT:  At the same time, Bob Foster was active for 13 reg. season games, had 18 targets and 3 catches.  That's poor roster management, IMO.

Edited August 9, 2020 by Gugny

[CommonCents]

With all of the uncertainty having a WR around that knows the offense is a good idea. I have a hard time seeing the rookies having any kind of impact early on. 

 

They will be going from camp to gameday without anything inbetween besides randomn outbreaks and guys missing time. 

 

Roster managment is going to be a game in itself. 

[Saxum]

34 minutes ago, Hampton Josh fan said:

I disagree about Hodkins having any higher upside or a leg up on Duke. Teams cut 6th rounders all the time. His college resume didn't seem to light up any other teams draft board. Williams overcame huge obstacles to get on the field and produced in a small sample size. If they dump Duke , guaranteed he's playing on another roster opening day. 

 

On a roster - yes, too much upside - but maybe inactive not playing because he will not have time to adjust if he is cut at deadline.

[DCbillsfan]

26 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

FWIW, here's Joe B's guess at the 53 man roster from The Athletic. 
For WR he has:

Wide Receiver (7): Stefon Diggs, John Brown, Cole Beasley, Gabriel Davis, Andre Roberts, Isaiah McKenzie, Isaiah Hodgins

Before any practices, the receiver debate is not about which players should make the team. Instead, it’s about how many make the final roster. Wide receiver is notoriously a difficult position for rookies to transition into in the NFL, which makes Beane’s task at crafting the right group a difficult one. He selected both Gabriel Davis and Isaiah Hodgins this April and isn’t particularly keen on letting draft picks go in their first season. Barring injury, Davis will be on the 53-man roster. The player in question becomes Hodgins — if Beane cuts Hodgins, he runs the risk of a player he believes in being claimed on waivers. For now, Hodgins sticks as the seventh receiver.

The lack of practices increases Isaiah McKenzie’s value for the beginning of the season. The Bills know they can plug McKenzie into the lineup if necessary, while the rookie wideouts get more acclimated in the background. Andre Roberts is an efficient kickoff and punt returner, making his inclusion likely as well. Robert Foster and Duke Williams were both nice stories once upon a time, and there is a distinct possibility the Bills sneak one or both onto the practice squad.

Cut: Robert Foster, Duke Williams, Nick Easley

 

Last season if I have it right, we kept 6:

Brown, Beas, McKenzie, Roberts, Duke, Foster

 

I think Buscaglia has a point that McKenzie has a leg-up to be their "utility knife" player given the short off-season, and a point that rookies have trouble transitioning at WR.  But as he also notes, we did use 2 draft picks on Davis and Hodgins.   Will Beane be willing to expose them to possible waivers? 

 

Foster and Duke have both shown flashes, but also fallen short of expectations at times.  Notably, Duke had a chance to show big in Houston and didn't.  For whatever reason, he didn't make it to the off-season workouts in FL.  If we keep 6 WR as last year, I think it's likely to be Diggs, Brown, Beas, Davis, Roberts, and McKenzie while Foster and Duke are the "odd men out".

Good writeup.  I tend to lean towards going with 7 WRs.  Regarding Roberts, Is he facing any serious competition as a PR or KR?  

[Hampton Josh fan]

10 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I really like Duke so I hope you're right another roster picks him up.  And you may also be right about Hodgins.  But I think it's quite plausible the team still keeps only 6 WR this year, in which case IMO they would both be "odd men out".  Your points about Hodgins would be arguments why Beane may feel he can stash him on the PS successfully.

Duke had 10 targets in the Houston game and made 4 receptions.  At what point do you say the guy had his chance in the bright lights and he didn't make good?

 

From the "risk management" perspective, I think the guys with the highest potential in-game exposure to Covid-19 are going to be the lines on both sides, so if I were looking at the squad, that's where I'd use extra slots. 

Fair assessment but if the guy had that many targets he and JA must have trust and chemistry. Also the rookie aspect has to be factored. Give Duke the training camp to impress and make it open competition. PS Josh was running for his life in the second half against Houston. Some of those throws were unwatchable. 4 receptions might have been 2and most that day.

[Warcodered]

14 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

He played in three consecutive games in October, in which he had 7 targets and 6 catches.  Then he sat for 9 weeks and played in a throwaway game vs. the Jets, followed by the playoff game.

 

My hunch is that if he'd been on the field weekly (playing consistently), his target:catch ratio would have been much better.  But that's just a hunch .... because he sat for 9 weeks.

 

EDIT:  At the same time, Bob Foster was active for 13 reg. season games, had 18 targets and 3 catches.  That's poor roster management, IMO.

I do remember for good while last season people being irritated that Foster who was doing nothing offensively was active because he was a ST gunner and Duke was inactive.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

52 minutes ago, Hampton Josh fan said:

I disagree about Hodkins having any higher upside or a leg up on Duke. Teams cut 6th rounders all the time. His college resume didn't seem to light up any other teams draft board. Williams overcame huge obstacles to get on the field and produced in a small sample size. If they dump Duke , guaranteed he's playing on another roster opening day. 

 

Likely if Williams is cut, agree he will be picked up by someone else as has shown enough.  I'd say Hopkins has more upside because he was drafted  where as Williams never was.  Her signed as an UDFA and got cut in September.  No teams were interested in him so for two seasons played in Canada.  Granted much was for off field issues, but still he wasn't signed.  As to teams cutting 6th rounders all the time, 70.2%  stick the 1st year, dropping to 57% the second year all the way down to 10% by year five.  However by year 5, only 18% of 3rd rounders are still on a roster too. 

 

I think Williams would need to show a significant improvement from last season to be kept over a draft pick.   As I said the best chance for Williams is Hodkins is put on IR, then that may open a spot and that's assuming they keep 6 WR

 

Actually I forgot completely about Roberts so that even further lessens Williams chances.

 

Edited August 9, 2020 by Ed_Formerly_of_Roch

[JESSEFEFFER]

25 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I really like Duke so I hope you're right another roster picks him up.  And you may also be right about Hodgins.  But I think it's quite plausible the team still keeps only 6 WR this year, in which case IMO they would both be "odd men out".  Your points about Hodgins would be arguments why Beane may feel he can stash him on the PS successfully.

Duke had 10 targets in the Houston game and made 4 receptions.  At what point do you say the guy had his chance in the bright lights and he didn't make good?

 

From the "risk management" perspective, I think the guys with the highest potential in-game exposure to Covid-19 are going to be the lines on both sides, so if I were looking at the squad, that's where I'd use extra slots. 

He had 2 at his hands that he did not secure before a db made a pbu.  I do not think either was a drop.  There were others where Duke was nearest to an uncatcable / throwaway pass.  He also made a difficult catch that was called back on a holding penalty.

 

This is all to say that he made some nice plays, was a physical presence but left difference making plays on the field.  Most everyone on the roster had a similar game.

 

Edited August 9, 2020 by JESSEFEFFER

[Fred Slacks]

1 hour ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

 

More like #6 spot!  There's no way he's making the team over a 4th round draft pick who has the #4 WR spot locked up and even a 6th rounder likely has a leg up on him particularly since both guys drafted are as big as Williams is.  So they both bring to the table the same thing Williams brings other than some experience.  McKenzie brings are rather uniquely different skill set that is lacking elsewhere so likely he also has a leg up on Williams to be kept as will come down to Williams or 2 draft picks all with very similar skill sets.  Beane likes his draft picks!

 

The top 4 spots are taken, I think #5 goes to McKenzie, so the only way I see Williams making the team is if they feel they can sneak Hodkins to the PS.  Likely the more experienced Williams would outplay Hodkins in training camp, but the long term upside may be higher with Hodkins so they would be more reluctant to lose him.  Maybe the team gets lucky and Hodkins breaks a nail so they can move him to the  PS for a year, then Williams chances could change.  Likely whomever is the #6 WR will be inactive most weeks anyway barring injuries ahead of him.

Hodgkins is a 6th round flyer. There is no guarantee he’s getting a roster spot. This team is too talented for all late round picks to make the roster. Duke has just a fair shot at making it as Hodgkins. Maybe a better shot. Not to mention Duke sighs close to 230 lbs. That’s a thick man. 

Edited August 9, 2020 by Fred Slacks

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

Just now, Fred Slacks said:

Hodgkins is a 6th round flyer. There is no guarantee he’s getting a roster spot. This team is too talented for all lye round picks to make the roster. Duke has just a fair shot at making it as Hodgkins. Maybe a better shot. Not to mention Duke sighs close to 230 lbs. That’s a thick man. 

 

70% of 6th rounders stick with the team

[Fred Slacks]

Just now, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

70% of 6th rounders stick with the team

I bet in years past it’s been higher than that on the Bills teams. But I don’t think it’s a percentage game this year. There’s numbers there. Think about it. Duke got more targets in the playoff game than Beasley. He’s established himself with the coaches. I’m not saying he makes the roster for sure. I think he makes it over Hodgkins though. 
 

I think Diggs changes the dynamics of who they keep. Foster was a dud last year. But they kept him cause of special teams. With Diggs his speed isn’t as important for our WR core as much. Plus now we have that RB from the Texans who I’m drawing a blank on at the moment. He’s a stud gunner. Which makes Foster more expendable. Personally I’d rather Foster take more of the McKenzie end around role. Who knows though. A lot of roster cuts is talent no doubt. But the coaches also have favorites for whatever reason and they will fight door certain kids to be their last slot at their position. All I’m saying is I’d put money down that Duke makes this roster over Hodgkins. Hodgkins can easily slide onto practice squad. Especially this year with Covid. I think less practice squad players get pillaged. 

[Bermuda Triangle]

I'm kind of "meh" on Duke.  The drop in the Wild Card game was an absolute killer.

 

But I will say that his TD catch against Tennessee was a really cool moment - you could tell how happy his teammates were for him.  

[HappyDays]

I think Hodgins and Duke will both end up on the practice squad. Without preseason it's very unlikely a 7th round pick will get claimed off waivers.

[JESSEFEFFER]

It's going to be a strange year for NFL roster management.  Rookies will get less time to learn an offense and no preseason games to showcase their abilities.  Teams will have little to evaluate of other team's roster cuts.   It will be a 5 day process to bring a new player on to an active roster or PS.  Chances are greater that teams keep their own players and lesser that they bring outsiders in.  PS players are more important than ever before.

 

 

 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

2 minutes ago, Fred Slacks said:

I bet in years past it’s been higher than that on the Bills teams. But I don’t think it’s a percentage game this year. There’s numbers there. Think about it. Duke got more targets in the playoff game than Beasley. He’s established himself with the coaches. I’m not saying he makes the roster for sure. I think he makes it over Hodgkins though. 
 

I think Diggs changes the dynamics of who they keep. Foster was a dud last year. But they kept him cause of special teams. With Diggs his speed isn’t as important for our WR core as much. Plus now we have that RB from the Texans who I’m drawing a blank on at the moment. He’s a stud gunner. Which makes Foster more expendable. Personally I’d rather Foster take more of the McKenzie end around role. Who knows though. A lot of roster cuts is talent no doubt. But the coaches also have favorites for whatever reason and they will fight door certain kids to be their last slot at their position. All I’m saying is I’d put money down that Duke makes this roster over Hodgkins. Hodgkins can easily slide onto practice squad. Especially this year with Covid. I think less practice squad players get pillaged. 

 

That 70% number was based on 15 years of data, but do agree  this year could be different as likely lower chances of teams grabbing players cut by others unless it's someone that another team wanted to draft or sign.  If they feel they can slip Hodkins to the PS without getting grabbed then that may happen or as I said in another thread they are really hoping he gets a hang nail so they can move him to IR.

 

But even then, you still have Diggs, Brown, Beasley, Roberts, Davis, and likely McKenzie ahead of him.  Think he'll need to show a marked improvement in training camp from last season to stick over one of these other guys.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

29 minutes ago, Gugny said:

He played in three consecutive games in October, in which he had 7 targets and 6 catches.  Then he sat for 9 weeks and played in a throwaway game vs. the Jets, followed by the playoff game.

 

Correct, but after being open for 4 targets against Tenn, he had only 1 target vs Miami and 2 targets vs. Philly (of which he caught one).  Why do you think his targets dropped off so much?  Maybe once the other team had some film on him and he didn't take them by surprise, they neutralized him?  Maybe he made route running mistakes? 

 

29 minutes ago, Gugny said:

My hunch is that if he'd been on the field weekly (playing consistently), his target:catch ratio would have been much better.  But that's just a hunch .... because he sat for 9 weeks.

 

My hunch is that there's a reason Williams was directed to play "left bench" after 3 weeks.

 

29 minutes ago, Gugny said:

EDIT:  At the same time, Bob Foster was active for 13 reg. season games, had 18 targets and 3 catches.  That's poor roster management, IMO.

 

They both failed to step up and deliver IMO, leading to Beane's decision to use (effectively) 3 draft picks on WR last draft.

[JESSEFEFFER]

4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

I think Hodgins and Duke will both end up on the practice squad. Without preseason it's very unlikely a 7th round pick will get claimed off waivers.

Better to keep your own than roll the dice on other teams' cuts who did not even play in a preseason game that you could scout.

 

 

Edited August 9, 2020 by JESSEFEFFER

[Gugny]

Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

They both failed to step up and deliver IMO, leading to Beane's decision to use (effectively) 3 draft picks on WR last draft.

 

This, to me, is the likeliest story.