Has MLB shown a "non-bubble" plan is doomed for failure?

[ndirish1978]

The only thing that will work is a bubble as shown by the NBA/MLS. The NFL won't want to lose the ticket revenue and the bubble would have to be enormous to accomodate these large rosters so that's never going to happen. I expect we will not make it through an entire season.

[MAJBobby]

Just now, ndirish1978 said:

The only thing that will work is a bubble as shown by the NBA/MLS. The NFL won't want to lose the ticket revenue and the bubble would have to be enormous to accomodate these large rosters so that's never going to happen. I expect we will not make it through an entire season.

 

Not really.  Contract 2 Hotels, per city.  Sanitize them, provide the same concept of the NBA just at each individual City Location, and yes you have to play FANLESS

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

I wonder if the NFL has done anything with the airlines to get reserved planes for travel.  The airlines certainly have spare planes these days, park a plane in each NFL city that just sits there except when the team has an away game.  Maybe even pay the crews to do nothing all week except fly the team to a game.  Probably could find enough pilots and crew near every city to utilize them.  Or at a minimum test the crew the day before the flight leaves.  Should be cheap to leave a plane in a city these days.

[MAJBobby]

In case anyone wants to read about how the NBA Bubble works

 

https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/sports/2020/07/09/nba-bubble-takes-shape-disney-world/5387760002/

Edited July 28, 2020 by MAJBobby

[ALF]

One super spreader in a locker room can be a disaster.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

4 minutes ago, ndirish1978 said:

The only thing that will work is a bubble as shown by the NBA/MLS. The NFL won't want to lose the ticket revenue and the bubble would have to be enormous to accomodate these large rosters so that's never going to happen. I expect we will not make it through an entire season.

 

Didn't two teams drop out of MLS play due to virus?  Not sure I'd argue that it worked for them.

[ndirish1978]

Then send about 100+ people home for each team where their sphere of contact increases exponentially. Unless everyone is tested daily before contact with anyone at the facility, someone will get COVID, come to practice and screw the whole team. 

1 minute ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Didn't two teams drop out of MLS play due to virus?  Not sure I'd argue that it worked for them.

 

Teams with widespread illness will not participate in the season because of it. 

[Big Turk]

4 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

I don't think keeping things closed indefinitely is an acceptable response to a virus that is relatively harmless to the vast, vast majority of people.  

 

I do believe in wearing masks (and everywhere I go in hot-spot Atlanta, believe it or not,  people are wearing masks).   I do believe in social distancing.  I even believed in the limited lock down.  

 

That said, eventually you need to re-open, and when you do, this will likely reappear in NYC.  

 

American has a ton of densely populated cities and when you re-open densely populated areas with no vaccine, COVID spikes.   Masks help.  Distancing helps.  But the spikes will occur.  

 

We don't all subscribe to praising a state that is responsible for a majority of COVID death in this country, while bragging about it's current low case counts as it's businesses and restaurants go under.

 

 

 

If by relatively harmless you mean accepting potential permanent heart damage in a fairly good portion of people that have gotten it( a recent small study of 100 people showed 78 now have heart damage that showed up on an MRI) along with a whole host of other potential chronic conditions like neurological, blood clots, blood pressure issues, lung damage, kidney damage, liver damage, etc. then yes its relatively harmless in terms of IMMEDIATE DEATH.

 

So what we need to be having is not an IMMEDIATE DEATH discussion, we need to be having a long-term quality of life discussion.  How many people are going to have significant impacts to their quality of life over the next 30 years?  How many are going to have a much shorter life expectancy due to this?  What is the death total going to look at a year from now, 5 years from now, 10 years from now due to conditions that started due to this or that this worsened significantly over time from this?

 

Permanent heart damage in a significant portion of people is a pretty damn serious thing, even if they are alive right now, how many will die from this in the next year, 5 years, 10 years, etc...how many deaths from other things will this have contributed to?  

 

I am sure larger studies with more people and wider age groups will probably show less people affected by heart damage but it is still going to at least be 20% or higher most likely.  You up for a 1 in 5 shot or higher of permanent heart damage?

 

And again.  If you want to focus on the beginning where NY got hit extremely hard, realistically through no fault of their own other than lots of people from Italy coming through their airports and ignore the way we have controlled it then do whatever you need to do.  The problem you are having is that you haven't accepted that life will NEVER go back to the way it was ever again and the more you try to force it go back the longer it is going to take for this to get under control.  We have in large part accepted that here because of what we went through. We know life has fundamentally changed and we are learning how to thrive in the "new normal".  I suggest you stop fighting it and start accepting it.  You ultimately don't have any other choice.

[billsfan89]

10 minutes ago, ndirish1978 said:

The only thing that will work is a bubble as shown by the NBA/MLS. The NFL won't want to lose the ticket revenue and the bubble would have to be enormous to accomodate these large rosters so that's never going to happen. I expect we will not make it through an entire season.

 

The NFL needs to find a way to do a bubble, maybe they can do multiple bubbles and have 2 divisions play each other in their own bubbles. That would allow for a 10 game season (6 games within your own division 4 against a different division.)

 

That way you only have to isolate 8 teams and support staffs in one bubble. That way you can just focus on having 4 smaller bubbles. The NFL needs to delay the start of the season to October and figure this all out.

[Big Turk]

9 minutes ago, ALF said:

One super spreader in a locker room can be a disaster.

 

Yup..again an example of a relatively small, poorly ventilated indoor area with lots of people in close contact to each other...these are the places that are pretty much driving the surge...bars, restaurants, churches, etc...people just have to accept life is over as we knew it and we can't go back to that.  it just is.  Just accept it and learn how to adjust because ultimately there is really no choice.

[SCBills]

4 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

 

If by relatively harmless you mean accepting potential permanent heart damage in a fairly good portion of people that have gotten it( a recent small study of 100 people showed 78 now have heart damage that showed up on an MRI) along with a whole host of other potential chronic conditions like neurological, blood clots, blood pressure issues, lung damage, kidney damage, liver damage, etc. then yes its relatively harmless in terms of IMMEDIATE DEATH.

 

So what we need to be having is not an IMMEDIATE DEATH discussion, we need to be having a long-term quality of life discussion.  How many people are going to have significant impacts to their quality of life over the next 30 years?  How many are going to have a much shorter life expectancy due to this?  What is the death total going to look at a year from now, 5 years from now, 10 years from now due to conditions that started due to this or that this worsened significantly over time from this?

 

Permanent heart damage in a significant portion of people is a pretty damn serious thing, even if they are alive right now, how many will die from this in the next year, 5 years, 10 years, etc...how many deaths from other things will this have contributed to?  

 

I am sure larger studies with more people and wider age groups will probably show less people affected by heart damage but it is still going to at least be 20% or higher most likely.  You up for a 1 in 5 shot or higher of permanent heart damage?

 

And again.  If you want to focus on the beginning where NY got hit extremely hard, realistically through no fault of their own other than lots of people from Italy coming through their airports and ignore the way we have controlled it then do whatever you need to do.  The problem you are having is that you haven't accepted that life will NEVER go back to the way it was ever again and the more you try to force it go back the longer it is going to take for this to get under control.  We have in large part accepted that here because of what we went through. We know life has fundamentally changed and we are learning how to thrive in the "new normal".  I suggest you stop fighting it and start accepting it.  You ultimately don't have any other choice.

 

Your litany of hypotheticals aside, you do realize that people have complications and long lasting side effects from seasonal flu as well, correct? 

 

I'm not comparing this to the flu, because clearly it's way more contagious, but people need to stop acting like that is COVID-specific.

 

 

Edited July 28, 2020 by SCBills

[Big Turk]

5 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

Your litany of hypotheticals aside, you do realize people have complications and long lasting side effects from seasonal flu as well, correct? 

 

I'm not comparing this to the flu, because clearly it's way more contagious, but people need to stop acting like that is COVID-specific.

 

I highly highly doubt anywhere close to the degree that happens with COVID, because if it was we would have heard about it. Also, have you ever in your life heard of a hospital being overrun by people with the flu(other than the Spanish Flu)? I've talked to several nurses and doctors and they have a hard time remembering more than a handful of people at any one time in the hospital from it, and most didn't need ventilators.  The flu is very specific in terms of what it effects, COVID is basically like an all out assault on your entire body and every system in it.  

 

More importantly, studies are now even showing that people who are "asymptomatic" have something akin to walking pneumonia even if they feel fine and they also see people in hospitals who are feeling fine sitting around with Oxygen levels in the 50-60% range that are dangerously low. One minute they are feeling fine and the next they can't breathe.  

 

The most dangerous thing about it, is even when people "feel fine" with COVID, there is significant damage being done to their body in lots of cases and the way you feel isn't a clear indicator of it.

Edited July 28, 2020 by matter2003

[mjd1001]

1 hour ago, SCBills said:

NFL definitely needs to bubble teams, and it's much more feasible than in MLB because the team can just stay on top of it during the week and they only travel once per week / play one team per week.

 

Also, what protocols are even in place for baseball players/coaches/staff, specifically when they leave the facilities?  I don't even know... I do know what the NFL has put in place.

 

 

I thought a bubble would work better for MLB than the NFL.

NFL teams have more players requiring more space/training facilities/practice fields.

 

You could have a MLB bubble with a few diamonds available, and the teams just share them for practice.

In the NFL, how much time and how much space do you need for practice, and as far as training facilities (meeting rooms, weight rooms, etc), it puts a LOT more stress on single locations even if you have just a handful of teams.

[SCBills]

Just now, matter2003 said:

 

I highly highly doubt anywhere close to the degree that happens with COVID.  The flu is very specific in terms of what it effects, COVID is basically like an all out assault on your entire body and every system in it.  

 

You seem to know a lot about a virus that most medical professionals are still trying to figure out....

 

Do you think your description is a bit dramatic?.... If that's your view of COVID, I imagine if I ask you to describe Ebola, you'd just scream-type hieroglyphics.  

[Kirby Jackson]

50 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

 

In terms of league size they SHOULD have the easiest time managing this...teams only have what, 12 players? Versus 26 for MLB, 23 for NHL and 55 for NFL

I’m not just talking about Covid response. FWIW though they were 1st our with their plan and it looks like it will be the most successful. You’d think that wouldn’t be the case as others could watch some flaws and adapt their plans accordingly.
 

I’m talking about running their business. Most innovation in pro sports starts in the NBA and then others adopt it. They invest much more heavily in their business operations staffs than other leagues. They also collaborate 1,000,000,000,000x better than all other leagues combined on that end. You have the smartest people, working together and you get results. 

Edited July 28, 2020 by Kirby Jackson

[mjd1001]

19 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

 

Not really.  Contract 2 Hotels, per city.  Sanitize them, provide the same concept of the NBA just at each individual City Location, and yes you have to play FANLESS

Except, as above, for the required meeting space, weight rooms, and practice fields that NFL teams seem to spend a lot more time on than most other sports.

[Kirby Jackson]

43 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

When you really look at your players as "Partners" and Not Employees you get thinking centered around making sound decisions for your Partners

This x1,000,000

 

Great point MajBobby!!

[johnnywo]

24 minutes ago, MJS said:

That's not evidence of a proper response. That's evidence of New York getting hit first and hard and the disease running its course.

 

You really think that New Yorkers are all just good boys and girls who listened and wore masks and were just better citizens than everyone else in the US? How pompous is that? There are cities and states that have taken it just as seriously if not more and haven't gotten hit nearly as hard. And California has done everything New York has done and been far more strict, if you ask me.

 

I agree... I live in CA and see it first hand....definitely more strict than most. However, reporting is a ***** show...most, if not all people are wearing masks...especially in public settings. Gavin Pelosi classifies "community" outbreaks as 3 people in a single setting testing positive. So here in SD, 3 people out of 4M who test positive from a restaurant, bar, etc sets the county back 14 days. 3 people..... 3/4M =  .000075%.

 

Any case, Sal Capaccio had a good interview with WGR yesterday and stated how although there is more contact than baseball, soccer, etc...there is far less risk due to travel mitigation's, food options, hotel options etc. It made sense to me. Private charters to travel. They are in and out of a city normally within 24hrs. In mostly controlled environments. Baseball players are traveling way more often, eating in different places, and coming in contact with more people daily.   

[Watkins101]

56 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I’ve been saying on here, FOR YEARS, that the NBA is the best run league. It isn’t all that close and never has been.

Looking at only the response post covid, I think the NHL had at least as good, if not better response. The NHL has already taken care of the cap crisis of next year with revenue lost in the new CBA, by using a flat cap the next 2 years, as well as making an effective bubble for the playoffs.

56 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I’ve been saying on here, FOR YEARS, that the NBA is the best run league. It isn’t all that close and never has been.

Looking at only the response post covid, I think the NHL had at least as good, if not better response. The NHL has already taken care of the cap crisis of next year with revenue lost in the new CBA, by using a flat cap the next 2 years, as well as making an effective bubble for the playoffs.

[MJS]

7 minutes ago, johnnywo said:

 

I agree... I live in CA and see it first hand....definitely more strict than most. However, reporting is a ***** show...most, if not all people are wearing masks...especially in public settings. Gavin Pelosi classifies "community" outbreaks as 3 people in a single setting testing positive. So here in SD, 3 people out of 4M who test positive from a restaurant, bar, etc sets the county back 14 days. 3 people..... 3/4M =  .000075%.

 

Any case, Sal Capaccio had a good interview with WGR yesterday and stated how although there is more contact than baseball, soccer, etc...there is far less risk due to travel mitigation's, food options, hotel options etc. It made sense to me. Private charters to travel. They are in and out of a city normally within 24hrs. In mostly controlled environments. Baseball players are traveling way more often, eating in different places, and coming in contact with more people daily.   

Exactly.

 

Another thing is the NFL only plays once a week where MLB they are playing every other day often. I feel like it will be easier to control for the NFL.