bills starters and where they were drafted

[dave mcbride]

first rounders are overrepresented in the starting lineup, and UFAs come in second place:

 

as the bills enter this season, on defense they will feature 4 first rounders (vincent, clements, adams, spikes), 3 second rounders (milloy, kelsay, schoebel), a third rounder (edwards), a fourth rounder (mcgee), and two undrafted players (posey and fletcher).

 

on offense, the bills start 5 first rounders (losman, mcgahee, evans, moulds, mike williams), a fifth rounder (villarrial), a sixth rounder (shelton), a seventh rounder (teague), and two UFAs (tucker, campbell), and a ? at LT. for the three receiver set, sub in a second rounder (reed) for a sixth rounder (shelton).

 

the tally:

 

first rounders - 9

 

second rounders - 3

 

third rounders - 1

 

fourth rounders - 1

 

fifth rounnders - 1

 

sixth rounders - 1

 

seventh rounders - 1

 

UFAs - 4

 

If the Bills land shelton and he starts, that makes 10 first rounders out of 22.

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

first rounders are overrepresented in the starting lineup, and UFAs come in second place:

 

as the bills enter this season, on defense they will feature 4 first rounders (vincent, clements, adams, spikes), 3 second rounders (milloy, kelsay, schoebel), a third rounder (edwards), a fourth rounder (mcgee), and two undrafted players (posey and fletcher).

 

on offense, the bills start 5 first rounders (losman, mcgahee, evans, moulds, mike williams), a fifth rounder (villarrial), a sixth rounder (shelton), a seventh rounder (teague), and two UFAs (tucker, campbell), and a ? at LT. for the three receiver set, sub in a second rounder (reed) for a sixth rounder (shelton).

 

the tally:

 

first rounders - 9

 

second rounders - 3

 

third rounders - 1

 

fourth rounders - 1

 

fifth rounnders - 1

 

sixth rounders - 1

 

seventh rounders - 1

 

UFAs - 4

 

If the Bills land shelton and he starts, that makes 10 first rounders out of 22.

310227[/snapback]

 

Thanks for the numbers!

 

The other things to factor into this when assessing the Bills and GM performance is not simply how many players are first rounders, but also how many of these first rounders were originally drafted by the Bills.

 

On both the O and D side of the ball from a quick look at your info slightly less than half (5/11) players starting for the Bills were drafted by the Bills. I think this shows that while the draft is a critical resource for building the team, it is slightly less than a majority resource. In particular when you factor in the cap management issues where UDFA starters are generally cheap and allows you to acquire the best depth possible on ST (shades of the Homerun Throw-up) this shows the even hieghtened importance of great non-draft work for building a team.

 

The draft is critical (good players have to come from somewhere) but I think the numbers support that folks tend to have an over-inflated sense of the value of draft picks as even these numbers show their import to be 50/50 at best, show that though more talented players are drafted higher, one cannot ignore the contribution of second day picks and that when one factors in the growing import of the salary cap the draft is an important but declining part of building a winning team.

[BuckeyeBill]

Second day picks are very important. They are just a little more boring because (well for me at least) they are names I've never heard of before. But there have been many second day steals in NFL History.

 

I consider Terrance McGee a steal in the draft. Who would have thought he would have been this good as a Kick Returner and even a Cornerback. And he's just coming into his own!

 

Let's hope TD finds another Diamond in the rough on Sunday.

[Arkady Renko]

UFAs - 4

 

If the Bills land shelton and he starts, that makes 10 first rounders out of 22.

310227[/snapback]

 

Hmm... apparently UFAs is where the value is. Let's trade our 5-7 round picks for more picks in this round...

[AKC]

Second day picks are very important.  They are just a little more boring because (well for me at least) they are names I've never heard of before.  But there have been many second day steals in NFL History.

 

I consider Terrance McGee a steal in the draft.  Who would have thought he would have been this good as a Kick Returner and even a Cornerback.  And he's just coming into his own!

 

Let's hope TD finds another Diamond in the rough on Sunday.

310309[/snapback]

 

 

CB is clearly a position at which Donahoe is a superior evaluator. He has balance of good and bad choices around the rest of the field, it's only at QB that he has yet to produce a hit. Losman appears to have a great desire to change that.

[Arkady Renko]

CB is clearly a position at which Donahoe is a superior evaluator. He has balance of good and bad choices around the rest of the field, it's only at QB that he has yet to produce a hit. Losman appears to have a great desire to change that.

310316[/snapback]

 

All the more reason to trade Clements now?

[dave mcbride]

Thanks for the numbers!

 

The other things to factor into this when assessing the Bills and GM performance is not simply how many players are first rounders, but also how many of these first rounders were originally drafted by the Bills.

 

On both the O and D side of the ball from a quick look at your info slightly less than half (5/11) players starting for the Bills were drafted by the Bills.  I think this shows that while the draft is a critical resource for building the team, it is slightly less than a majority resource.  In particular when you factor in the cap management issues where UDFA starters are generally cheap and allows you to acquire the best depth possible on  ST (shades of the Homerun Throw-up) this shows the even hieghtened importance of great non-draft work for building a team.

 

The draft is critical (good players have to come from somewhere) but I think the numbers support that folks tend to have an over-inflated sense of the value of draft picks as even these numbers show their import to be 50/50 at best, show that though more talented players are drafted higher, one cannot ignore the contribution of second day picks and that when one factors in the growing import of the salary cap the draft is an important but declining part of building a winning team.

310256[/snapback]

 

excellent points, but i'll add that this suggests that 1st round picks are generally better players (by a significant margin) than those drafted in later rounds. no surprise, i guess, but it does make one wonder whether we should be getting fired up about stockpiling 5th and 6th rounders (not that we are at present). most of those guys never make it.

[stuckincincy]

Second day picks are very important.  They are just a little more boring because (well for me at least) they are names I've never heard of before.  But there have been many second day steals in NFL History.

 

I consider Terrance McGee a steal in the draft.  Who would have thought he would have been this good as a Kick Returner and even a Cornerback.  And he's just coming into his own!

 

Let's hope TD finds another Diamond in the rough on Sunday.

310309[/snapback]

 

In his draft class, McGee was acclaimed as one of the very best college return men. That GW/KG didn't utilize him thusly in his rookie is another subject.

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

excellent points, but i'll add that this suggests that 1st round picks are generally better players (by a significant margin) than those drafted in later rounds.  no surprise, i guess, but it does make one wonder whether we should be getting fired up about stockpiling 5th and 6th rounders (not that we are at present). most of those guys never make it.

310351[/snapback]

The salary cap really makes good budgetting a significant part of building your team adding to the difficult crap shoot of player talent evaluation. Folks routinely want to treat the NFL process of merely an exercise in picking better players, however, it is not merely this exercise but doing this within the reality of the cap and also plaind dumb luck which means the difference between winning and losing in this league (do folks really think that Bill Belicheck would be considered a living legend without the help Lewis (NYJ) provided him by collapsing Bledsoe's lung: There's a credible argument to be made that BB would never have won an SB ever if Lewis had not forced NE to give Brady the reins, and caused the team to rally around him. Add into that the refs making the no-fumble call against the Raiders and dumb luck has had a ton to do with the BB success. This is no knock on BB cause you gotta be good to take advantage of luck, but the gods smiled heavily on NE in odd ways).

 

If your team was as close to making the playoffs as we were last year, stockpiling late choices makes a lot of sense as a strategy.

[eSJayDee]

Thanks for the #s. I realize this is a relatively small sampling, but it's basically what you'd expect I think.

The reason UDFAs are so well represented is that there are so many more of them.

A team typically brings to camp about 4 'low' round draft choices and perhaps 20 UDFAs.

Considering the level of talent is so close (think about how often it takes a few stops for a player to 'get it'). that certainly seems reasonable.

In a somewhat different vein, each draft class has a small # of athletes that are vastly superior to the others. MOST of them make it & continue to flourish in the NFL.

2nd rounders (& probably late 1st rounders) fall somewhere in between. They've done something to make them stand out, but not in a sterling fashion.

It'd be interested to see a further breakdown that is somewhat weighted for how much a particular level of draft choice contributes.

[Kelly the Dog]

In his draft class, McGee was acclaimed as one of the very best college return men. That GW/KG didn't utilize him thusly in his rookie is another subject.

310380[/snapback]

Well, I agree somewhat. But Mcgee was a PR in college not a KR. He even said himself last year that he didn't think he would be all that good. Antonio Brown had just returned two punts for scores in pre-season and they had to give him a chance. When he didn't work out (which, granted, took far too long for GW and ST coaches to know they made a mistake) Clements was clamoring for being the man back there. They also had Bobby Shaw who had just been 4th in the AFC in PR. So it's not like McGee was the obvious and only choice, although mcgee did look good in pre-season, too.

[AKC]

All the more reason to trade Clements now?

310330[/snapback]

 

I don't see moving a playmaker with no obvious debits on his balance sheet. A guy like Randy Moss is arguably such a distraction in multiple ways that you can look to get better by moving him, but Nate is simply a football player, and one of the best in the league at affecting the dynamics of a football game. There are probably only 10-15 players around the league with equal overall ability (based on his contributions in two phases) to impact a game outcome- it's hard to justify accepting any unknown for that.