My 2015 NFL Draft Evals - Revisited!

[GunnerBill]

I posted my 2014 draft evaluations revisited a few nights ago find it here:

 

2015 was my second year of trying to evaluate draft prospects. I evaluated 83 players in 2015 and as I suspected when I posted my 2014 outcomes the other day I like 2015 less. I thought other than being too low on Beckham and Mack I didn't do too bad in 2014. I certainly wasn't way too high on guys that were no good. That is less true in 2015. Though I do remember really not liking this class very much. I had 18 first round grades (listed below) but after my top 8 the other 10 were all low first round grades and 2015 was the last year before I implemented my "borderline" grade and had it been in play in 2015 I might have only had 13 true first round grades. This is the least favourite draft I have evaluated since doing it. But here goes on the hits and misses.

 

My 18 first round grades:

 

1. Leonard Williams, DT, USC

2. Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon

3. Jameis Winston, QB, FSU

4. Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa

5. Vic Beasley, DE, Clemson

6. Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia

7. Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama

8. Danny Shelton, DT, Washington

9. DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville

10. Cam Erving, C, FSU

11. Dante Fowler, DE, Florida

12. Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford

13. Kevin White, WR, West Virginia

14. Bud Dupree, OLB, Kentucky

15. Arik Armstead, DE, Oregon

16. Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State

17. Erick Kendricks, LB, UCLA

18. Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami

 

So unlike in 2014 I don't think I really missed on any slam dunk superstars. The best player I "missed" on from this class was probably Marcus Peters who I had #26 overall with a high second round grade and he went #18 to the Chiefs and obviously has been a playmaker in the league for three teams. That said, I'm not really sure that qualifies as a major miss. My problem with this class is unlike 2014 where I think I did a better job of spotting the fools gold. I can try and console myself with at least not having Ereck Flowers in my top 10 but I still somehow managed to think that lump of useless was a first round player. The other thing I remember really clearly about this class was loving Cleveland's picks and thinking "finally the Browns have made really solid, sensible, first round picks who will anchor their lines for years to come." Err.... no. In fairness Danny Shelton has been a good player, and has won a Superbowl. I still find their decision to trade him to the Pats for chump change a little odd but he hasn't justified a top 10 grade or the 12th overall pick that Cleveland spent on him. Erving has also won a Superbowl (last year with the Chiefs) but really as a versatile backup lineman and when he did need to start at left tackle in place of Eric Fisher the drop off was noticeable. He signed with the Cowboys in free agency as a swing backup tackle and he has some value in that role..... but again, nothing close to what I expected him to be. The only players there that I had a first on who have really become top end NFL players are Todd Gurley (though his knee ended that pretty quickly), Amari Cooper (who is good not great) and Brandon Sherff (never bet against Iowa offensive linemen) who slid inside to guard and has been a top 10 guard his entire run in Washington. I believe he will play 2020 on the franchise tag and then likely get a nice payday somewhere else in 2021. The first rounder I was most ahead of the curve on this year was Erick Kendricks who most had later. Until 2019 the consensus looked more right than I was but he had an outstanding 2019 season. Overall this was not a great class but I still feel like some of their failures were more predictable than obviously I felt at the time. Mariota and Winston failing as NFL QBs hurts me. I liked them both a lot.

 

Other notable hits from the rest of the players I graded:

Mitch Morse, OG, Missouri was the #21 player on my board. Selected by the Chiefs in round 2 (#49) and has been a consistent center in the league both with the Chiefs and now with our Bills (albeit I didn't think he was at his best in 2019).

Ali Marpet, OT, Hobart was the #25 player on my board. Selected by the Buccaneers in round 2 (#61) and has been an absolute stud of an interior offensive lineman playing at left guard. He didn't meet my normal criteria of enough games to go on the board but blew me (and most people) away at the Senior Bowl.

Eddie Goldman, DT, FSU was the #30 player on my board. Selected by the Bears in round 2 (#39) and has been a really critical piece of that rebuilt Bears D. Not a flashy pick but a good one... and the Bears were generally felt to have reached at the time if I remember rightly. One of Ryan Pace's rare hits as Chicago's GM.

Shaq Mason, C, Georgia Tech was the last player inside my top 5 at #50. Selected by the Patriots in round 4 (#131) and playing at offensive guard has been pretty close to elite and the model of consistency. Every year I seem to fall in love with an interior lineman at the all star games and in 2015 it was Shaq Mason. I was gutted when the Patriots drafted him.  

 

Other notable misses from the rest of the players I graded:

Mario Edwards, DT, FSU was the #23 player on my board. Selected by the Raiders in round 2 (#35). I'd forgotten I liked him so much until I looked at my board for this exercise so I can't tell you why I was so high on him. He sucked in Oakland but has carved out an okay living as a backup in New Orleans.

Maxx Williams, TE, Minnesota was the #29 player on my board. Selected by the Ravens in round 2 (#55). I was not alone on these boards in really liking this kid. I had a high 2nd on him and I rarely give 1st round grades to tight ends so that shows I really liked him. He had 268 yards and 1 touchdown as a rookie. That remains his most productive year. Now in Arizona.  

Josh Shaw, CB, USC was the #41 player on my board. Selected by the Bengals in the 4th round (#120). I thought he was a steal. He did okay for a 4th round pick in Cincy (though not so much for a guy I had a round 2 grade on) but he is currently out of the league suspended for gambling infringements.

 

Bring on the Bills.....

My takes then and now on the Bills picks...

 

#50 - Ronald Darby, CB, FSU - bizarrely despite watching a lot of FSU film I never actually got around to evaluating Darby. He wasn't on my board. The Bills got decent value out of him and traded him away for a 3rd round pick plus Jordan Matthews after two years so he pretty much held his value. Has won a Superbowl with the Eagles.

#81 - John Miller, OG, Louisville - I had on my board and I had him graded in the 3rd round and as my #76 overall player. So the Bill pretty much married up my value here. Miller showed promise his first two years here before losing his way. He has been a starter 4 of his 5 years in the league though and for a 3rd round pick that isn't a bad outcome.

#155 - Karlos Williams, RB, FSU - I was higher than many on Karlos. I had him with a high 3rd round grade at #61 on my board. We all know the story here. Exciting rookie campaign followed by personal problems and waster potential.

#188 - Tony Steward, LB, Clemson - was not on my board. Appeared in 7 games as a rookie, starting none, and via a couple of stints on practice squads is now out of the league.

#194 - Nick O'Leary, TE, FSU - I had on my board as my #82 player and a 4th round grade. On his 3rd team, has 53 catches and 4 touchdowns which is way above the average career of a 6th rounder. Would have been a slightly disappointing 4th rounder. Also, he does not wear gloves.

#234 - Dezmin Lewis, WR, Central Arkansas - I had never heard of him. I still barely have.

 

 

I have one more to do for this offseason in the 2016 draft. I won't judge 2017 until next year.

Edited July 23, 2020 by GunnerBill

[Kirby Jackson]

Congrats on your Kevin White grade Gunner. I’m never listening to anything that you have to say ever again ?

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Congrats on your Kevin White grade Gunner. I’m never listening to anything that you have to say ever again ?

 

Haha. Kevin White might not suck.... he never plays

[DallasMac]

Maxx was definitely a surprise bust and I definitely didn't expect him to last until the 5th.  Tight ends just never seem to meet the early round expectations.   

Edited July 23, 2020 by DallasMac

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, DallasMac said:

Maxx was definitely a surprise bust and I definitely didn't expect him to last until the 5th.  Tight ends just never seem to meet the early round expectations.   

 

Sorry that is a mistake. Should be round 2. Pick #55. Thanks for spotting I will edit. 

[Rc2catch]

Nice to see you take the lumps and misses and don’t shy away from those. 
Usually when anyone wants to show their draft they only want to point out the smart picks and shy away from the bad evaluations so kudos for keeping it honest 

[FireChans]

2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Congrats on your Kevin White grade Gunner. I’m never listening to anything that you have to say ever again ?

This is his year! He’s finally healthy.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Rc2catch said:

Nice to see you take the lumps and misses and don’t shy away from those. 
Usually when anyone wants to show their draft they only want to point out the smart picks and shy away from the bad evaluations so kudos for keeping it honest 

 

Nah I don't try and sugar coat. We all miss some. You have to take the rough with the smooth. I am confident I get more right than wrong but I never shy away from getting some wrong. 

[MJS]

32 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Nah I don't try and sugar coat. We all miss some. You have to take the rough with the smooth. I am confident I get more right than wrong but I never shy away from getting some wrong. 

I'd totally be into the pre draft evaluations if I had time to watch college ball. I stick to the NFL and am usually in the dark around draft time and just look into the first round hopefuls.

 

Maybe one day...

[Big Turk]

@GunnerBill I have always been confused regarding "First Round Grades"...there are 32 first round picks, how can there only be 18 players with a first round grade?  By definition that means either your grading criteria is too strict or not taking into account there needs to be a lower floor

[FireChans]

24 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

@GunnerBill I have always been confused regarding "First Round Grades"...there are 32 first round picks, how can there only be 18 players with a first round grade?  By definition that means either your grading criteria is too strict or not taking into account there needs to be a lower floor

 

It’s a valuation.

 

A player with a high second round grade may be taken in the first round of a weaker draft. In a stronger draft, he may not be taken until the end of the second. But either way, his grade remains high second round.

[GunnerBill]

42 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

@GunnerBill I have always been confused regarding "First Round Grades"...there are 32 first round picks, how can there only be 18 players with a first round grade?  By definition that means either your grading criteria is too strict or not taking into account there needs to be a lower floor

 

It is an objective measure. If you give 32 first round grades every year you are backing yourself into a position that every draft has the same number of top end talents and it does not. You grade based on a scale on what you see on tape. My scale is different than other scouts but anyone who is a 7.0 or higher is a "true first round grade". 

21 minutes ago, FireChans said:

It’s a valuation.

 

A player with a high second round grade may be taken in the first round of a weaker draft. In a stronger draft, he may not be taken until the end of the second. But either way, his grade remains high second round.

 

Exactly this. There were receivers with 3rd round grades this year who in most years would go round 2 but this year cos of the talent at the position went in round 4.

[y2zipper]

What jumps off the screen here was how bad this draft class actually was. From what I remember there were about 22 first round grades from some evaluators and expected, this was a bad class. At the time this went heavily into Buffalo's decision to move the pick.

 

I'm not surprised at all that Winston failed the way he did but I thought Mariotta would be better.

[BillsfaninChicago]

These evals are awesome! Thanks!

Edited July 24, 2020 by Leonhart2017

[John from Riverside]

That ended up being a very bla draft

 

This is why I defer to Gunner when it comes to player evaluations.......

[Big Turk]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It is an objective measure. If you give 32 first round grades every year you are backing yourself into a position that every draft has the same number of top end talents and it does not. You grade based on a scale on what you see on tape. My scale is different than other scouts but anyone who is a 7.0 or higher is a "true first round grade". 

 

Exactly this. There were receivers with 3rd round grades this year who in most years would go round 2 but this year cos of the talent at the position went in round 4.

 

Gotcha...so does that mean "on average" a draft should have 32 first round prospects, with some drafts having more and some having less? 

[GunnerBill]

5 hours ago, matter2003 said:

 

Gotcha...so does that mean "on average" a draft should have 32 first round prospects, with some drafts having more and some having less? 

 

On average I find a draft has 20-24 pure first rounders and another 6-8 borderlines. And if you think logically about it that is right. The drop off between the player you get at 20 and 35 is on the whole greater than the drop off you get between 30 and 35. But equally, and I say this all the time, I am looking from a scheme agnostic perspective. There will be teams who have 1sts on guys because they are specific scheme fits for them even if 25 other teams think he is a 2nd or 3rd rounder. Baltimore and Seattle are two teams who have very particular drafting profiles for instance. 

[Big Turk]

24 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

On average I find a draft has 20-24 pure first rounders and another 6-8 borderlines. And if you think logically about it that is right. The drop off between the player you get at 20 and 35 is on the whole greater than the drop off you get between 30 and 35. But equally, and I say this all the time, I am looking from a scheme agnostic perspective. There will be teams who have 1sts on guys because they are specific scheme fits for them even if 25 other teams think he is a 2nd or 3rd rounder. Baltimore and Seattle are two teams who have very particular drafting profiles for instance. 

 

Makes sense...I also think New England fits that bill as well...I remember several drafts where they took a player who was graded a few rounds lower than where they took them...