John from Riverside Posted July 24, 2020 Posted July 24, 2020 I will just keep posting this till idiotic 808 posts go away:
LABILLBACKER Posted July 24, 2020 Posted July 24, 2020 Realistically I don't ever see Josh going above 63% in his career. The 17-22 tds are too low. He'll average 25-28 most of his career with probably 1 or 2 outlier seasons above 30. I think the key to Josh's long term success and having him avoid a "Andy Dalton" type career is for Sean to always have a quality defense around him. We seen qbs who are not HOFers win SB'S. All Josh has to be is be a "high ceiling" game manager. 1
Jrb1979 Posted July 24, 2020 Posted July 24, 2020 52 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said: Realistically I don't ever see Josh going above 63% in his career. The 17-22 tds are too low. He'll average 25-28 most of his career with probably 1 or 2 outlier seasons above 30. I think the key to Josh's long term success and having him avoid a "Andy Dalton" type career is for Sean to always have a quality defense around him. We seen qbs who are not HOFers win SB'S. All Josh has to be is be a "high ceiling" game manager. Whatever floats your boat. Its hard to keep high quality defenses together for multiple years. For how high he was drafted and many fans considering him the franchise a game manager is not good enough. 1
John from Riverside Posted July 24, 2020 Posted July 24, 2020 1 minute ago, Jrb1979 said: Whatever floats your boat. Its hard to keep high quality defenses together for multiple years. For how high he was drafted and many fans considering him the franchise a game manager is not good enough. You do realize there not even enough starting caliber QBs to go around to NFL teams right? YOu do realize that QBs drafted as high as number 1 bust right?
Ralonzo Posted July 24, 2020 Posted July 24, 2020 (edited) 3 hours ago, John from Riverside said: I will just keep posting this till idiotic 808 posts go away: I always watch this because it has one of the best calls of all time. "There's a STRIKE delivered forrrr... ... ...an incomplete pass" Honest to God, if the Bills were dominating with a Brees or Wilson at QB it wouldn't be as interesting to watch as Allen. You stand a much greater chance of seeing something you've never seen before with that guy, good moreso than bad, but either is possible. When you've been on this rock for a few spins, there's value in that. Thrill me! Edited July 24, 2020 by Ralonzo 1
billsfan89 Posted July 24, 2020 Posted July 24, 2020 2 hours ago, Jrb1979 said: Whatever floats your boat. Its hard to keep high quality defenses together for multiple years. For how high he was drafted and many fans considering him the franchise a game manager is not good enough. The poster is also not taking into consideration that "high end game managers" get paid good money and even a QB making 27 million or closer to 15% of your cap makes it harder to always have a good to great defense around them. If Josh is a good but not great QB then the Bill's are only going to consistently win during his rookie deal and if they can draft insanely well. Drafting that well is hard to do so it will likely come down to Josh long term. 1
Dragoon Posted July 25, 2020 Posted July 25, 2020 Ya know why I love Josh....he has Fitzpatrick’s heart and balls, and he’s got elite talent. That’s what I think of him. 2
Bss Posted July 25, 2020 Posted July 25, 2020 1 hour ago, Dragoon said: Ya know why I love Josh....he has Fitzpatrick’s heart and balls, and he’s got elite talent. That’s what I think of him. Fitz without the weak arm honestly could be an average-above average franchise quarterback.
808 Posted July 25, 2020 Posted July 25, 2020 On 7/24/2020 at 8:33 AM, John from Riverside said: I will just keep posting this till idiotic 808 posts go away: Didnt see his 20+ fumbles in there ?. What about when he threw it directly to a defender and he dropped it. Should give him credit for that too! yes he had a bunch of drops.but that didnt make him wildly inconsistent and his game awareness horrible. I want him to be the best in the nfl but im also realistic to say he has massive warts. 2
Bangarang Posted July 25, 2020 Posted July 25, 2020 His floor is Newtown’s MVP season and his ceiling is Mahome’s MVP season. 1
Rockinon Posted July 25, 2020 Posted July 25, 2020 On 7/22/2020 at 12:37 PM, Alphadawg7 said: IMO, Josh will put up somewhere between 3800 and 4200 yards passing (range depends on the run game, if Devin and Moss become a dynamic duo, Josh yardage numbers will dip...for good reason). Then I think we will see Josh put up 32-36 total TD's (again, range is reflecting potential impact of run game because if Moss becomes a battering ram, then Josh will lose some of those inside the 10 TD runs). Josh will also be north of 60%, and I expect that to be in the 63% to 65% range. When you got a guy with a cannon like Josh, a competitive drive like Josh, and who is not afraid to take deep shots at any time...then he will never be a guy who leads the league in or is top 5 in comp %. And I would rather have a 62% passer who is pushing he ball down field than a 68% passer who manages a game. I also think Josh will have single digit INT's somewhere between 7 and 9. I have real high expectations for our offense this year and firmly believe we will be a top 10 scoring offense. Our Defense is stout, so our offense should benefit from turnovers and good field position this year. I think we will average 25+ points per game personally. Final stat line projection from above all lined up together: Allen: 3800-4200 yards, 32+ total TD's, 9 or less INT's, 63% comp These are my legit expectations. And I will say this, I feel like this is closer to his floor than his peak this year. That is me being conservative in his projections IMO. BUT: At the end of the day, the only stat I am concerned about is the win column in the playoffs. We have a RB duo with immense potential. If Devin and Moss are combining for 175 to 200 yards per game (rushing and receiving), Josh's stats may not be gaudy. So its not so much about the stat lines Josh puts up, its about how he plays leading this team. If Josh puts up 3300 yards, 22 passing TD's, and 4 rushing TD's with 5 INT's and 64% passing completion...that would still be a VERY successful season for him if it was because our run game was dominating along side him. We can't knock Josh season totals just because our RB's were highly productive and reducing the frequency to throw for stats. That being said, Moss is unproven still and Devin showed a ton of promise, but we still don't know what he will look like in his first season as the lead back either. Plus, while I expect our run game to be effective, its clear the team wants to throw more too and went out and paid a ton to get Diggs to support their young QB with a monster of an arm. So I still think my final stat line projection is both realistic and somewhat conservative too. This is pretty much what I am thinking. However, if that running game is successful, the passing game will open up better. Football has a flow to it. Rushing and passing compliment each other. If one of them is not effective, the other also takes a hit. It's not out of the realm of possibility that the offense as a whole sees a significant jump in productivity. Diggs should help in keeping the passing game clicking, just as Moss should help keeping the rushing game clicking. Being successful in both prevents setbacks and keeps the flow of the game from being interrupted. I'm not expecting a huge jump from Josh. But the offense as a whole just might take a leap. If the offense improves only marginally, that would be disappointing. 1
DuckyBoys Posted July 25, 2020 Posted July 25, 2020 I think his completion percentage gets a good bump just from throwing to Diggs moving Brown and Beasley to the #2 and #3 targets. They need to let him throw more on 1st down His success rate on 1st down passing was very good.
Warcodered Posted July 26, 2020 Posted July 26, 2020 On 7/24/2020 at 10:29 AM, HappyDays said: Didn't feel like this deserved its own thread but it's interesting: I mean who even was the #3 WR last year?
Bss Posted July 26, 2020 Posted July 26, 2020 6 minutes ago, Warcodered said: I mean who even was the #3 WR last year? In terms of snap count Isaiah McKenzie, who was on the field 42% of the time
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted July 26, 2020 Posted July 26, 2020 By far Turbitzky's biggest problem in year 3 was his inability or reluctance to make plays with his legs. In Turbitzky's break out second season he converted 29 of his 68 rushing attempts into first downs. A 43% clip. In year 3 his 1st down conversion rate plummeted to 25%. He ran the ball 30% less and for 54% less yardage than he did in 2018. This was a problem because he clearly left a lot of plays on the field since he did not make up for these missed running plays with better and more efficient passing numbers. Honestly, Allen's year three passing number could look very similar to the ones of Turbitzky that the OP posted. The passing stat not posted by the OP that I would most not want Allen to have similar is Turbitzky's league worst 6.1 YPA. In 2018 Turbitzky was a respectable 7.4 in that category. Allen wasn't good last year at 6.7 but you can live with it. Brady was 6.6 last year and Wentz was 6.7 and both made the playoffs. There was a big drop off after 6.6 where Rudolph was 31st in the league at 6.2 and Turbitzky was 32nd with 6.1 If Allen can just up his YPA to 7.0 - 7.2 while still being the aggressive and efficient runner he has always been I think he will have a very good year. 1
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted July 26, 2020 Posted July 26, 2020 9 hours ago, Bangarang said: His floor is Newtown’s MVP season and his ceiling is Mahome’s MVP season. His ceiling is Newton and Mahome's MVP seasons combined. Somewhere around 60 total TD's and over 5600 yards. His floor is Blake Bortles and Colin Kaepernick. 1
BuffaloBills1998 Posted July 26, 2020 Posted July 26, 2020 He’s going to be fine, he’s gonna get better because he wants to be better and won’t settle for less. I don’t care if he never throws for 5,000 yards and 50 TDS. Jim Kelly never threw for more than 3,000 yards his entire career here in Buffalo. If Allen can have half the career here that Kelly did I’ll be very happy and pleased 1 1
GunnerBill Posted July 26, 2020 Posted July 26, 2020 1 minute ago, BuffaloBills1998 said: He’s going to be fine, he’s gonna get better because he wants to be better and won’t settle for less. While that certainly helps, it guarantees nothing. 1
FireChans Posted July 26, 2020 Posted July 26, 2020 12 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said: His ceiling is Newton and Mahome's MVP seasons combined. Somewhere around 60 total TD's and over 5600 yards. His floor is Blake Bortles and Colin Kaepernick. I'm thinking 80 total TD's. 40 in the air, 40 on the ground. 4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: While that certainly helps, it guarantees nothing. Not true. I want to be a better QB as well, and now look at me! 1
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