JaCrispy Posted July 22, 2020 Posted July 22, 2020 7 hours ago, rayray808 said: What are some realistic past year 3 QB comparisons that we can expect from Josh Allen this season? I tried researching QB 3rd year stats and I am having a hard time finding one that is the most realistic for Josh this year... Here are some easy ones of modern QB's who resemble his play... What is his floor? Trubisky in year 3? 3138 yards, 63% completion, 17 TD, 10 INT, 2 rushing TD - Bears started 3-1 and ended up 8-8 to miss the playoffs. Would we move on from him if that was the case? What is his ceiling? Dak in year 3? 3885 yards, 67% completion, 22 TD, 8 INT, 6 rushing TD - Cowboys went 10-6 to win the NFC East, beat the Seahawks round 1 on the playoffs and then lost to the Rams 22-30. Would we cement him as "the guy" if that was the case? Are there better floor vs ceiling comparisons out there? 526 356 67.68 3885 7.4 90 22 8 I think Trubisky’s stats are more likely as I don’t think Josh will play a full season due to the virus...
Call_Of_Ktulu Posted July 22, 2020 Posted July 22, 2020 If we could swap O-Lines with Dallas I would be expecting huge numbers from Allen. Our OT’s allow too much pressure which is why you see Allen step up then take off running.
marky Posted July 22, 2020 Posted July 22, 2020 4 hours ago, Dragoon said: Im not gonna set stats for Josh because “stats are for losers.” I'm not a stats guy either. Can you make all the passes in the playbook? That's all the QB has to do. I want to see an offensive identity outside of the running QB. It's about going about against someone else big in the league and destroying them any way you can. That attracts talent. The idea of the modern QB is only for league darlings, people who make money selling magazines and commercial spots on late night network shows. 1
Alphadawg7 Posted July 22, 2020 Posted July 22, 2020 IMO, Josh will put up somewhere between 3800 and 4200 yards passing (range depends on the run game, if Devin and Moss become a dynamic duo, Josh yardage numbers will dip...for good reason). Then I think we will see Josh put up 32-36 total TD's (again, range is reflecting potential impact of run game because if Moss becomes a battering ram, then Josh will lose some of those inside the 10 TD runs). Josh will also be north of 60%, and I expect that to be in the 63% to 65% range. When you got a guy with a cannon like Josh, a competitive drive like Josh, and who is not afraid to take deep shots at any time...then he will never be a guy who leads the league in or is top 5 in comp %. And I would rather have a 62% passer who is pushing he ball down field than a 68% passer who manages a game. I also think Josh will have single digit INT's somewhere between 7 and 9. I have real high expectations for our offense this year and firmly believe we will be a top 10 scoring offense. Our Defense is stout, so our offense should benefit from turnovers and good field position this year. I think we will average 25+ points per game personally. Final stat line projection from above all lined up together: Allen: 3800-4200 yards, 32+ total TD's, 9 or less INT's, 63% comp These are my legit expectations. And I will say this, I feel like this is closer to his floor than his peak this year. That is me being conservative in his projections IMO. BUT: At the end of the day, the only stat I am concerned about is the win column in the playoffs. We have a RB duo with immense potential. If Devin and Moss are combining for 175 to 200 yards per game (rushing and receiving), Josh's stats may not be gaudy. So its not so much about the stat lines Josh puts up, its about how he plays leading this team. If Josh puts up 3300 yards, 22 passing TD's, and 4 rushing TD's with 5 INT's and 64% passing completion...that would still be a VERY successful season for him if it was because our run game was dominating along side him. We can't knock Josh season totals just because our RB's were highly productive and reducing the frequency to throw for stats. That being said, Moss is unproven still and Devin showed a ton of promise, but we still don't know what he will look like in his first season as the lead back either. Plus, while I expect our run game to be effective, its clear the team wants to throw more too and went out and paid a ton to get Diggs to support their young QB with a monster of an arm. So I still think my final stat line projection is both realistic and somewhat conservative too.
billsfan89 Posted July 22, 2020 Posted July 22, 2020 It could vary wildly with Josh. He could hit his stride in year 3 and be a fringe MVP candidate or he could regress and be a below average QB. It hard to put a ceiling or floor on it. 2
JESSEFEFFER Posted July 22, 2020 Posted July 22, 2020 (edited) Here is Cam Newton in 2013, the EJ's rookie year game included. I think Josh can match this but I am hoping for more. It looks much like the Josh's 2019 road stats extended over a 16 schedule that I posted earlier. ▼ W L T Cmp Att Inc Cmp% Yds TD Int Rate Sk Yds Y/A AY/A A/G Y/G Att Yds Y/A TD A/G Y/G TD Pts Fmb FL FF FR Yds TD 16 12 4 0 292 473 181 61.73 3379 24 13 88.8 43 336 7.14 6.92 29.6 211.2 111 585 5.27 6 6.9 36.6 6 36 3 1 0 0 -8 0 Edited July 22, 2020 by JESSEFEFFER 1
loveorhatembillsfan4life Posted July 22, 2020 Posted July 22, 2020 Provided a full sesaon I’m going over 30 passing td 4-8 rushing td over 3600 passing yards
rayray808 Posted July 22, 2020 Author Posted July 22, 2020 2 hours ago, 808 said: Kyle boller is my comp for him Did Kyle Boller have similar stats to him during his first two years? What did his third year look like? Not sure if the "strong arm" comparison holds when you look at the full spectrum of QB comparisons
IgotBILLStopay Posted July 22, 2020 Posted July 22, 2020 (edited) 12 hours ago, rayray808 said: What are some realistic past year 3 QB comparisons that we can expect from Josh Allen this season? I tried researching QB 3rd year stats and I am having a hard time finding one that is the most realistic for Josh this year... Here are some easy ones of modern QB's who resemble his play... What is his floor? Trubisky in year 3? 3138 yards, 63% completion, 17 TD, 10 INT, 2 rushing TD - Bears started 3-1 and ended up 8-8 to miss the playoffs. Would we move on from him if that was the case? What is his ceiling? Dak in year 3? 3885 yards, 67% completion, 22 TD, 8 INT, 6 rushing TD - Cowboys went 10-6 to win the NFC East, beat the Seahawks round 1 on the playoffs and then lost to the Rams 22-30. Would we cement him as "the guy" if that was the case? Are there better floor vs ceiling comparisons out there? 526 356 67.68 3885 7.4 90 22 8 I'm thinking Dak may be the floor here. I still doubt he will throw for 4500+ yards, but I'll just focus on the W-L baby!. Edited July 22, 2020 by IgotBILLStopay
BBills88 Posted July 22, 2020 Posted July 22, 2020 Patrick Mahomes Superbowl victory Ceiling Garrapolo Super loser is the floor
John from Riverside Posted July 22, 2020 Posted July 22, 2020 13 hours ago, GunnerBill said: I think those are ballpark but I suspect Josh will be below 63% completion again though likely his floor for touchdowns is more in the 20 range. Similarly with his ceiling, I think a worse completion percentage than Dak is likely but Josh's ceiling is more than 22 passing touchdowns this year.... My realistic expectations are about 3,500 yards, 61% completion, 24 touchdowns 9 INTs and 4-6 rushing touchdowns (that last number could even be higher if Moss doesn't prove effective as the short yardage back). I agree So the question becomes.....is that good enough for ppl to get off Allens back?
808 Posted July 22, 2020 Posted July 22, 2020 2 hours ago, rayray808 said: Did Kyle Boller have similar stats to him during his first two years? What did his third year look like? Not sure if the "strong arm" comparison holds when you look at the full spectrum of QB comparisons Yeah similar first 2 years. Youve seen the numbers. ? powered by a good defense. Very similar.
papazoid Posted July 22, 2020 Posted July 22, 2020 whats the problem ?? all those deep overthrown balls will now be caught by diggs....problem solved 1
Don Otreply Posted July 22, 2020 Posted July 22, 2020 8 minutes ago, John from Riverside said: I agree So the question becomes.....is that good enough for ppl to get off Allens back? Unlikely, these are first world fans, the goal posts will never stop moving regardless of Allen’s performance, even if we win it all. Folk seem to have already forgotten how bad it was for the better part of two decades, just three years removed. Go Bills!!! 1
John from Riverside Posted July 22, 2020 Posted July 22, 2020 22 minutes ago, Buffalo619 said: I would expect Josh to hit his ceiling this year. Similar stats to Kaepernicks final year Why? VERY raw when he came into the league......better talent around him last year......even better talent around him this year......what is to stop him from not improving?
rayray808 Posted July 23, 2020 Author Posted July 23, 2020 (edited) Another interesting comparison: Josh Freeman - 6 foot 6, 240 pounds The 2012 season is when they got him support with TE Dallas Clark and WR Vincent Jackson, and was his third full season at QB. Could we also see a potentially burst in stats from Josh Allen similar to Josh Freeman? I sure hope we don't see the same fall off Year Age Tm Pos No. G GS QBrec Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD TD% Int Int% 1D Lng Y/A AY/A Y/C Y/G Rate QBR Sk Yds NY/A ANY/A Sk% 4QC GWD AV 2009 21 TAM QB 5 10 9 3-6-0 158 290 54.5 1855 10 3.4 18 6.2 90 42 6.4 4.3 11.7 185.5 59.8 37.2 20 102 5.65 3.69 6.5 2 2 2 2010 22 TAM QB 5 16 16 10-6-0 291 474 61.4 3451 25 5.3 6 1.3 167 64 7.3 7.8 11.9 215.7 95.9 70.3 28 195 6.49 6.94 5.6 5 5 14 2011 23 TAM QB 5 15 15 4-11-0 346 551 62.8 3592 16 2.9 22 4.0 170 65 6.5 5.3 10.4 239.5 74.6 46.7 29 164 5.91 4.76 5.0 1 2 8 2012 24 TAM QB 5 16 16 7-9-0 306 558 54.8 4065 27 4.8 17 3.0 186 95 7.3 6.9 13.3 254.1 81.6 49.4 26 161 6.68 6.30 4.5 1 1 Other crazy similarities: 2009 QBs taken: Stafford, Sanchez, then Josh 2018 QBs taken: Baker, Darnold, then Josh Josh Allen combine scores: Measurables Height: 76.88 inches Weight: 237 pounds BMI: 28.87 Arm Length: 33.25 inches Hand Size: 10.13 inches Wingspan: 78.375 inches Birthdate: (N/A) NFL Combine Scores 40 Yard Dash: 4.75 seconds 40 Yard (MPH): 17.22 (MPH) 20 Yard Split: 2.74 seconds 10 Yard Split: 1.59 seconds Bench Press: (N/A) reps (225 lb) Wonderlic: (N/A) (0-50) QB Ball Velocity: 62 (MPH) Vertical Leap: 33.5 inches Broad Jump: (N/A) inches 20 Yd Shuttle: 4.40 seconds Three Cone: 6.90 seconds Shuttle Split: (N/A) seconds 60 Yd Shuttle: (N/A) seconds Four Square: (N/A) seconds Josh Freeman combine scores: Measurables Height: 77.75 inches Weight: 248 pounds BMI: 29.54 Arm Length: (N/A) inches Hand Size: 10.00 inches Wingspan: (N/A) inches Birthdate: 1/13/1988 NFL Combine Scores 40 Yard Dash: 4.90 seconds 40 Yard (MPH): 16.7 (MPH) 20 Yard Split: 2.85 seconds 10 Yard Split: 1.66 seconds Bench Press: (N/A) reps (225 lb) Wonderlic: 27 (0-50) QB Ball Velocity: 57 (MPH) Vertical Leap: 33.5 inches Broad Jump: (N/A) inches 20 Yd Shuttle: 4.43 seconds Three Cone: 7.11 seconds Shuttle Split: (N/A) seconds 60 Yd Shuttle: (N/A) seconds Four Square: (N/A) seconds Edited July 23, 2020 by rayray808
808 Posted July 23, 2020 Posted July 23, 2020 Josh freeman is great comp for him. Youll get burned at the stake for it cause people are happy since josh is better than the 30 turd bags the bills wheeled out since kelly. But that still doesnt mean he is an NFL starting qb. Just means he was a step up from dog poop.
Richard Noggin Posted July 23, 2020 Posted July 23, 2020 8 hours ago, JESSEFEFFER said: Here is Cam Newton in 2013, the EJ's rookie year game included. I think Josh can match this but I am hoping for more. It looks much like the Josh's 2019 road stats extended over a 16 schedule that I posted earlier. ▼ W L T Cmp Att Inc Cmp% Yds TD Int Rate Sk Yds Y/A AY/A A/G Y/G Att Yds Y/A TD A/G Y/G TD Pts Fmb FL FF FR Yds TD 16 12 4 0 292 473 181 61.73 3379 24 13 88.8 43 336 7.14 6.92 29.6 211.2 111 585 5.27 6 6.9 36.6 6 36 3 1 0 0 -8 0 I really think this is a sober, safe projection. I also really hope for more passing production than this, primarily in completions and total yards. The problem is that 29.56 attempts per game (the A/G above) seems very McD-ish (a slight tick above the 2019 Bills A/G), which is where a CORRECTED LONG BALL could be the key to increased production. As many here before me have pointed out. In 2019 Josh Allen missed on (either overthrew or didn't read) some explosive plays. Enough to justify a more optimistic projection for 2020, perhaps, if we think he'll miss fewer explosive opportunities (because of more and better skill players AND his own progression).
John from Riverside Posted July 23, 2020 Posted July 23, 2020 3 hours ago, 808 said: Josh freeman is great comp for him. Youll get burned at the stake for it cause people are happy since josh is better than the 30 turd bags the bills wheeled out since kelly. But that still doesnt mean he is an NFL starting qb. Just means he was a step up from dog poop. You are entitled to you opinion.....regardless of how wrong you are 3
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