Josh Allen year 3 comparisons

[rayray808]

What are some realistic past year 3 QB comparisons that we can expect from Josh Allen this season? I tried researching QB 3rd year stats and I am having a hard time finding one that is the most realistic for Josh this year... Here are some easy ones of modern QB's who resemble his play...

 

What is his floor? Trubisky in year 3?

3138 yards, 63% completion, 17 TD, 10 INT, 2 rushing TD - Bears started 3-1 and ended up 8-8 to miss the playoffs. 

Would we move on from him if that was the case?

 

 

What is his ceiling? Dak in year 3? 

3885 yards, 67% completion, 22 TD, 8 INT, 6 rushing TD - Cowboys went 10-6 to win the NFC East, beat the Seahawks round 1 on the playoffs and then lost to the Rams 22-30.

Would we cement him as "the guy" if that was the case?

 

Are there better floor vs ceiling comparisons out there?

 

526

356

67.68

3885

7.4

90

22

8

[GunnerBill]

I think those are ballpark but I suspect Josh will be below 63% completion again though likely his floor for touchdowns is more in the 20 range. Similarly with his ceiling, I think a worse completion percentage than Dak is likely but Josh's ceiling is more than 22 passing touchdowns this year....

 

My realistic expectations are about 3,500 yards, 61% completion, 24 touchdowns 9 INTs and 4-6 rushing touchdowns (that last number could even be higher if Moss doesn't prove effective as the short yardage back).

[No_Matter_What]

His 2019 stats: 3089 yards, 59% completion, 20 TDs, 9 INTs and 9 rush TD.

 

If he stays the same and team around him stays at same level, purely on the basis of Diggs and Moss additions and Knox having surer hands his stats should look like:

 

3500 yards, 61% completion, 25 TDs, 9 INTs, 7 rushing TDs

 

If he takes another step, it could look like this:

 

3900 yards, 63% completion, 30 TDs, 9 INTs, 7 rushing TDs.

 

In other words, I think that even if he plays on the same level, his stats need to get much better because there will be Diggs on the field instead of guys like Zay Jones or Robert Foster, which will also result in more room for everybody else. And if he actually gets better, then the jump in the stats has to be significant. We have averaged 20 points a game (with him), and I hope/believe that it will be as high as 27 this year, which is 1 TD a game more (~10 receiving and ~5-6 rushing TDs).

Edited July 22, 2020 by No_Matter_What

[machine gun kelly]

GB, you know I respect you’re opinions, and maybe you’re right, but I’m a little more optimistic.  I can see 63-65% completion, you’re yardage is probably right and Allen’s TDs.  I’m more bullish on Moss.  After watching those Utah games (yes I’m a dork and actually watched some of his games) I think he will be effective.  He did 4755 all purpose yards in his four years at Utah.  I know NFL defenses are bigger, faster, stronger, but he should pleasantly surprised a lot of people.  My only concern for him is his knees.  I’m hopeful if Motor has the bulk of the carries, it will preserve Moss that much longer.

[KGun12TD]

1 hour ago, No_Matter_What said:

His 2019 stats: 3089 yards, 59% completion, 20 TDs, 9 INTs and 9 rush TD.

 

If he stays the same and team around him stays at same level, purely on the basis of Diggs and Moss additions and Knox having surer hands his stats should look like:

 

3500 yards, 61% completion, 25 TDs, 9 INTs, 7 rushing TDs

 

If he takes another step, it could look like this:

 

3900 yards, 63% completion, 30 TDs, 9 INTs, 7 rushing TDs.

 

In other words, I think that even if he plays on the same level, his stats need to get much better because there will be Diggs on the field instead of guys like Zay Jones or Robert Foster, which will also result in more room for everybody else. And if he actually gets better, then the jump in the stats has to be significant. We have averaged 20 points a game (with him), and I hope/believe that it will be as high as 27 this year, which is 1 TD a game (~10 receiving and ~5-6 rushing).

 

This is a great way to put it. Also, if Josh could "Check Down" a little bit, his percentage and game will definitely take a leap. I truly feel like Diggs will help with his percentage of completion...The Bills also dropped a lot of passes this past year. Go Bills.

[eball]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I think those are ballpark but I suspect Josh will be below 63% completion again though likely his floor for touchdowns is more in the 20 range. Similarly with his ceiling, I think a worse completion percentage than Dak is likely but Josh's ceiling is more than 22 passing touchdowns this year....

 

My realistic expectations are about 3,500 yards, 61% completion, 24 touchdowns 9 INTs and 4-6 rushing touchdowns (that last number could even be higher if Moss doesn't prove effective as the short yardage back).

 

I think those are reasonable expectations.  If he plays all 16 games then averaging 200 yds/gm is 3200 yards, while 300 yds/gm is 4800 yards.  I think he’ll actually be closer to 4000 (250 per) and I think total TDs will be 32+ (i.e., 2+ per game).

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, machine gun kelly said:

GB, you know I respect you’re opinions, and maybe you’re right, but I’m a little more optimistic.  I can see 63-65% completion, you’re yardage is probably right and Allen’s TDs.  I’m more bullish on Moss.  After watching those Utah games (yes I’m a dork and actually watched some of his games) I think he will be effective.  He did 4755 all purpose yards in his four years at Utah.  I know NFL defenses are bigger, faster, stronger, but he should pleasantly surprised a lot of people.  My only concern for him is his knees.  I’m hopeful if Motor has the bulk of the carries, it will preserve Moss that much longer.

 

I wasn't suggesting Moss wouldn't be effective. Just that if for some reason he isn't Josh's rushing touchdowns likely go up. That's because I think they want the sneak to be a change up not their go to goal line and short yardage play. But obviously if Moss doesn't get it done then they will need to keep leaning on the sneak. 

Edited July 22, 2020 by GunnerBill

[ghostwriter]

3,800-4,000 yards

61% completion

25-29 TDs 

10-12 INTs

500 rushing yards

4-5 rushing TDs 

 

I think his rushing numbers goes down. We brought in Zack Moss for a reason, he’ll do the dirty work. Allen will still make spectacular plays on the ground but will run not nearly as much, he won’t be in the NFL long if he does.

 

Overall I think Allen gets the ball to Stefon Diggs early and often. I think Diggs will have a career year in Buffalo, probably 85-89 catches for 1,100 yards or so. Beasley and Brown will be wide open. I expect to see a high octane offense this year with Allen calling the shots. Allen won’t be far enough along to call his own plays yet although I think he will get to that point eventually in another 2-3 years. Ultimately I think Allen distinguishes himself as the best QB in the AFC East and Buffalo locks down the division for the next 10 years.

[eball]

I’ll have what @Victory Formation is having.  

[Dragoon]

Im not gonna set stats for Josh because “stats are for losers.”

[1ManRaid]

It's worth noting that many of the 3rd year QBs he would be compared to are/were at least in their 6th or even 7th year of legit starting experience and came from better college programs, where Josh is only coming into his 5th year out of Wyoming.

[Buffalo Boy]

1 hour ago, eball said:

 

I think those are reasonable expectations.  If he plays all 16 games then averaging 200 yds/gm is 3200 yards, while 300 yds/gm is 4800 yards.  I think he’ll actually be closer to 4000 (250 per) and I think total TDs will be 32+ (i.e., 2+ per game).

This is close to what I see.

If Diggs and Smoke both go 1000+ He is more than halfway to 4000.  This comes down to long ball accuracy improvement IMO. I think he does improve.

Add in a better short Passing game game with the Backs and Knox and Beasely holding serve and I’m at 4000 and 25-28 passing TDs.

The Red Herring is the “ No preseason”. This is uncharted territory. With a team that has been together three years now ( 2nd year for O) I think this allows us to take a sizable lead in the East over NY and Miami. Cam/ NE are an enigma. These 2 games Could help or hurt JA’s numbers, big time.

Lastly, Do Roman/McD play a more open offense or are we still going conservative  when we have a 7 point lead over teams, bad ones especially. I for one would like to see some 35-7 drubbings of the Jets and Miami( with their injury prone rookie QB taking his first hits in the regular season?)

Edited July 22, 2020 by Buffalo Boy

[JESSEFEFFER]

His completion % will never be near the top.  Drops (his passes are inherently tougher to catch) depth of target/lack of checkdown throws, escapablity (extended plays resulting in tougher throws on the move or throwaways) and FOR CRYING OUT LOUD HE DOESN"T PLAY HOME GAMES IN A DOME!  Rich/Ralph/New Era/? may be one of the worst outdoor venues to support a passing offense in the entire league.  Eagles, Broncos and Ravens games had 20+ mph winds.  The Eagles game had gusts over 40 mph and one flame ejecting prop blew over during the pregame.  They had them anchored with sandbags the rest of the home games.

 

If you believe that a QB is largely what his stats say he is,  then tell me what you make of his road/home split stats for 2019 because it mirrors the Jekyll and Hyde story.  The stats say he was a champ on the road, Cam Newton 2015 MVP type numbers.  At home he was a chump say the stats.

 

		G	W	L	T	Cmp	Att	Inc	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	Rate	Sk	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	A/G	Y/G	Att	Yds	Y/A	TD	A/G	Y/G	2PM	TD	Pts	Fmb	FL	FF	FR	Yds	TD
	Home	8	4	4	0	117	213	96	54.93	1263	9	5	76.9	20	121	5.93	5.72	26.6	157.9	45	226	5.02	2	5.6	28.3	1	2	14	10	2	0	3	0	0
	Road	8	6	2	0	154	248	94	62.1	1826	11	4	92.6	18	116	7.36	7.52	31	228.3	64	284	4.44	7	8	35.5		7	42	4	2	0	1	-1	0

 

 

I'd take 12 and 4 with 36 total TDs, 62% completions, 3652 passing yards, a 7.5 AY/A, 568 rushing yards with 8 ints and 2 fumbles lost.  

 

 

Edited July 22, 2020 by JESSEFEFFER

[C.Biscuit97]

Just now, JESSEFEFFER said:

His completion % will never be near the top.  Drops (his passes are inherently tougher to catch) depth of target/lack of checkdown throws, escapablity (extended plays resulting in tougher throws on the move or throwaways) and FOR CRYING OUT LOUD HE DOESN"T PLAY HOME GAMES IN A DOME!  Rich/Ralph/New Era/? may be one of the worst outdoor venues to support a passing offense in the entire league.  Eagles, Broncos and Ravens games had 20+ mph winds.  The Eagles game had gusts over 40 mph and one flame ejecting prop blew over during the pregame.  They had them anchored with sandbags the rest of the home games.

 

If you believe that a QB is largely what his stats say he is,  then tell me what you make of his road/home split stats for 2019 because it mirrors the Jekyll and Hyde story.  The stats say he was a champ on the road, Cam Newton 2015 MVP type numbers.  At home he was a chump say the stats.

 

		G	W	L	T	Cmp	Att	Inc	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	Rate	Sk	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	A/G	Y/G	Att	Yds	Y/A	TD	A/G	Y/G	2PM	TD	Pts	Fmb	FL	FF	FR	Yds	TD
	Home	8	4	4	0	117	213	96	54.93	1263	9	5	76.9	20	121	5.93	5.72	26.6	157.9	45	226	5.02	2	5.6	28.3	1	2	14	10	2	0	3	0	0
	Road	8	6	2	0	154	248	94	62.1	1826	11	4	92.6	18	116	7.36	7.52	31	228.3	64	284	4.44	7	8	35.5		7	42	4	2	0	1	-1	0

 

 

I'd take 12 and 4 with 36 total TDs, 62% completions, 3652 passing yards, a 7.5 AY/A, 568 rushing yards with 8 ints and 2 fumbles lost.  

 

 

You need to break down the opponents and their defensive rankings.  
 

also, I don’t think Big Ben, Tom Brady until this year, and Aaron Rodgers play in tropical locations with domes.  
 

imo, Allen is a total outliner.  Again why I’m so skeptical is because there haven’t been many prospects like him.  I think he was always been an inconsistent player capable of making some of the best plays I have ever seen, then doing some of the worst.  That said, he did a good job limiting turnovers (he needs to hold on to the ball better) so with our defense, it’s a winning formula.  I just want to see games where when the defense has an off game, Allen and the offense can win it for us.  And not 14-7 or whatever. 

[TBBills]

All gonna be about that deep ball.

[JESSEFEFFER]

28 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

You need to break down the opponents and their defensive rankings.  
 

also, I don’t think Big Ben, Tom Brady until this year, and Aaron Rodgers play in tropical locations with domes.  
 

imo, Allen is a total outliner.  Again why I’m so skeptical is because there haven’t been many prospects like him.  I think he was always been an inconsistent player capable of making some of the best plays I have ever seen, then doing some of the worst.  That said, he did a good job limiting turnovers (he needs to hold on to the ball better) so with our defense, it’s a winning formula.  I just want to see games where when the defense has an off game, Allen and the offense can win it for us.  And not 14-7 or whatever. 

 

 Three worst home games were probably Pats, Eagles and Ravens, only the latter two would have logically been wind affected and all three are pretty good/great defenses.   The Bills defense had a comp% against of 59 at  home and 66 on the road.  The same 7% differential that Josh had for whatever reason(s.)  I think all the QBs who play the majority of their games outside will have lower completion % than their Brees, Ryan, Stafford, Watson, Cousins, Wilson, etc. counterparts.  Unless the city is like Miami, LA/LV or San Diego.

[C.Biscuit97]

5 minutes ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

 

 Three worst home games were probably Pats, Eagles and Ravens, only the latter two would have logically been wind affected and all three are pretty good/great defenses.   The Bills defense had a comp% against of 59 at  home and 66 on the road.  The same 7% differential that Josh had for whatever reason(s.)  I think all the QBs who play the majority of their games outside will have lower completion % than their Brees, Ryan, Stafford, Watson, Cousins, Wilson, etc. counterparts.  Unless the city is like Miami, LA/LV or San Diego.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/RodgAa00/splits/
 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/RoetBe00/splits/

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BradTo00/splits/

 

better numbers at home than away.  I think the take away is dome qbs struggle more outside of the dome.  I think a good QBs is a good QBs no matter where.  It’s also why Brady is the GOAT. 

 

 

[DCOrange]

I just posted this in another thread but one of the Buffalo Rumblings guys did this same thing to predict Allen's Y2 stat line to pretty much perfection. Here's his article on what to expect in Y3:

 

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2020/2/28/21155523/how-big-of-a-leap-should-buffalo-bills-expect-josh-allen-to-make-in-2020

 

TLDR (numbers listed are the low range, mid range, and high range projections):

• Passing Yards/Game: 155.1, 198.7, 242.3 (Allen threw for 193.1 last year)
• Yards/Attempt: 5.8, 6.6, 7.5 (Allen was at 6.7 last year)
• Comp %: 56.4, 60.7, 65.0 (Allen was at 58.8 last year)
• TD %: 1.8, 3.6, 5.4 (Allen was at 4.3 last year)
• INT %: 4.0, 2.4, 0.8 (Allen was at 2.0 last year)

 So basically, historical trends (which he followed in Y2) suggest he likely won't improve very much statistically speaking, but it's not outside the realm of possibility for him to improve.

[BigBuff423]

A couple months ago (I think?) there was a comparison between Josh Allen and Matt Ryan in their first two years and they were eerily similar in terms of passing yards, TDs, INT, completion %, etc. Obviously, Allen surpassed Ryan's rushing yards and rushing TDs, but otherwise the numbers were very, very close. To that end - and I think it was Capaccio - used Ryan's 3rd year numbers as a benchmark to say, is this realistic? 

 

Ryan went from a 58.3% completion rate to a 62.5% completion rate with 3705 yards, 28 passing TDs, and 9 INTs, with a QB rating of 91, while being sacked 23 times. It's interesting to see how Josh does or does not progress and please do NOT misread these statements to say that I think Allen will or will not get there, I honestly don't know. Moreover, if I HAD to guess, I think Josh actually does slightly better this year and takes minor jump showing real maturity. IF and that's a big IF he does that, to me it's his 4th year that will make a huge difference. The reason being, Josh was just so new and raw to football let alone being a QB, that I think his growth curve is a year behind someone like Ryan who came out of college with a lot of polish and poise. 

 

Regardless, presuming the season gets played - I'm more excited about this team than I have been since 1991. 

[Kirby Jackson]

Thought this was a worthwhile contribution when talking about his rushing TDs. He really is an ELITE runner in the red zone.