JESSEFEFFER Posted July 21, 2020 Posted July 21, 2020 Joe made 2020 season superlative projections in his podcast today. For the "Under the Radar" problem/possible improvement he picked the Bills poor tackling in 2018 and 2019 which is an interesting topic. While the defense has been near the top in fewest points per drive (ppd) they are also #3 in missed tackles in 2019 and they actually had more in 2018. Normally, good defense correlates with good tackling. So there is something different about how the Bills play defense in that regard. The numbers he cited were 132 missed for the Bills @ #2 and and only 66 for the Pats at #1 in ppd. The only team in the top 10 of ppd but top 16 in missed tackles were the Titans at 10th/13th. He cites average as around 110. Some thoughts without really having any data to back it up it might be that: -Good hustling, rally to the ball defenders cover for missed tackles to thereby mitigate the damage. -Missed tackles by the front 7 are covered up by a good tackling secondary. A poor tackling secondary would have to lead to more points, right? -Milano and Edmunds are undersized and/or young and many are missed due to poor pursuit angles that allow runners to rip through arm tackles. -This has to be a big part of why the RZ defense struggled. So we can add this to reasons why defensive regression is less probable. They were not historically great at sacks or takeaways (which makes regression to mean likely as it was for the 2018 Jags and 2019 Bears) not much turnover in personnel/coaching and now add that missed tackles are hopefully going to go down. Or maybe due to lack of preseason games the Bills might only just get better relative to the rest of the league. 1
Johnnycage46 Posted July 21, 2020 Posted July 21, 2020 18 minutes ago, JESSEFEFFER said: Joe made 2020 season superlative projections in his podcast today. For the "Under the Radar" problem/possible improvement he picked the Bills poor tackling in 2018 and 2019 which is an interesting topic. While the defense has been near the top in fewest points per drive (ppd) they are also #3 in missed tackles in 2019 and they actually had more in 2018. Normally, good defense correlates with good tackling. So there is something different about how the Bills play defense in that regard. The numbers he cited were 132 missed for the Bills @ #2 and and only 66 for the Pats at #1 in ppd. The only team in the top 10 of ppd but top 16 in missed tackles were the Titans at 10th/13th. He cites average as around 110. Some thoughts without really having any data to back it up it might be that: -Good hustling, rally to the ball defenders cover for missed tackles to thereby mitigate the damage. -Missed tackles by the front 7 are covered up by a good tackling secondary. A poor tackling secondary would have to lead to more points, right? -Milano and Edmunds are undersized and/or young and many are missed due to poor pursuit angles that allow runners to rip through arm tackles. -This has to be a big part of why the RZ defense struggled. So we can add this to reasons why defensive regression is less probable. They were not historically great at sacks or takeaways (which makes regression to mean likely as it was for the 2018 Jags and 2019 Bears) not much turnover in personnel/coaching and now add that missed tackles are hopefully going to go down. Or maybe due to lack of preseason games the Bills might only just get better relative to the rest of the league. Interesting info. I would imagine with a modified off-season missed tackling might be up across the league this year. 1
MJS Posted July 21, 2020 Posted July 21, 2020 It has definately been a problem. I think it is an area that can be improved with good fundamentals training and focus. And a big part of it is Edmunds and Milano continuing to progress and make fewer mental errors. Milano, despite his size, does make a lot of good tackles. He just need to be more consistent. Edmunds needs to play faster and let his instincts play a bigger part. He has been wrapped up in the mental game. Once he gets that down he should be able to play more free.
thebandit27 Posted July 21, 2020 Posted July 21, 2020 The focus here should be on the DL. Shaq and Jordan Phillips missed a TON of tackles. The guys they added to replace them—Jefferson, Addison, and Butler—missed a total of 4 in 2019. 8
Mickey Posted July 21, 2020 Posted July 21, 2020 I think being 10th in TO differential helped. We didn't turn the ball over all that much so the defense rarely had to defend a short field.
JoshAllenHasBigHands Posted July 21, 2020 Posted July 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: The focus here should be on the DL. Shaq and Jordan Phillips missed a TON of tackles. The guys they added to replace them—Jefferson, Addison, and Butler—missed a total of 4 in 2019. Yeah - I never perceived Milano and Edmunds as being the culprits of our missed tackles woes. I always thought the interior DL was the real problem, but that includes Star.
marky Posted July 21, 2020 Posted July 21, 2020 (edited) Do special teams count in that number? One team kicks out of the endzone, other team kicks to the 1 yard line could mean +50 missed tackles a year. Edited July 21, 2020 by beavis
thebandit27 Posted July 21, 2020 Posted July 21, 2020 1 minute ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said: Yeah - I never perceived Milano and Edmunds as being the culprits of our missed tackles woes. I always thought the interior DL was the real problem, but that includes Star. Star has missed a total of 3 tackles since 2018 4 1
JoshAllenHasBigHands Posted July 21, 2020 Posted July 21, 2020 (edited) 1 minute ago, thebandit27 said: Star has missed a total of 3 tackles since 2018 Well, I mean, I guess if stats and facts are important to you then... That is interesting, for real. Do you have the breakdown for our D? Edited July 21, 2020 by JoshAllenHasBigHands 1 1
thebandit27 Posted July 21, 2020 Posted July 21, 2020 6 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said: Well, I mean, I guess if stats and facts are important to you then... That is interesting, for real. Do you have the breakdown for our D? ? I use pro football reference advanced defense stats. Lots of good stuff there.
JoshAllenHasBigHands Posted July 21, 2020 Posted July 21, 2020 4 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: ? I use pro football reference advanced defense stats. Lots of good stuff there. Wow. Shaq had 7; Phillips had 8; Edmunds had 12; Milano had 16. Here is how I look at those numbers. Shaq and Phillips were a REAL problem. They saw the field far less than Edmunds and Milano, and when the did, had farrrrr fewer opportunities for tackles. 7 and 8 is a TON for their respective positions. Edmunds seems right. I don't know where 12 ranks; however, as the MLB, he is in the middle of so many plays. I expect him to be at about 12. Milano is also high. He made 15 fewer tackles on the year than Edmunds, but missed 4 more tackles. That seems like it is creeping too high. People love praising Milano, but I always thought that he, and to a lesser extent Phillips, were the primary culprits of our bad run defense. Milano was out of position far more than Edmunds. The missed tackles sort of adds to that point.
thebandit27 Posted July 21, 2020 Posted July 21, 2020 1 minute ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said: Wow. Shaq had 7; Phillips had 8; Edmunds had 12; Milano had 16. Here is how I look at those numbers. Shaq and Phillips were a REAL problem. They saw the field far less than Edmunds and Milano, and when the did, had farrrrr fewer opportunities for tackles. 7 and 8 is a TON for their respective positions. Edmunds seems right. I don't know where 12 ranks; however, as the MLB, he is in the middle of so many plays. I expect him to be at about 12. Milano is also high. He made 15 fewer tackles on the year than Edmunds, but missed 4 more tackles. That seems like it is creeping too high. People love praising Milano, but I always thought that he, and to a lesser extent Phillips, were the primary culprits of our bad run defense. Milano was out of position far more than Edmunds. The missed tackles sort of adds to that point. Agreed. Taron Johnson and Hyde also had issues. 1
CSBill Posted July 21, 2020 Posted July 21, 2020 (edited) I remember three missed tackles of Deshaun Watson on that game winning play in the play-off game. Edited July 22, 2020 by CSBill 1
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted July 21, 2020 Posted July 21, 2020 39 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: The focus here should be on the DL. Shaq and Jordan Phillips missed a TON of tackles. The guys they added to replace them—Jefferson, Addison, and Butler—missed a total of 4 in 2019. Yeah - if they can be adequate replacements from a pass rushiing perspective, plus improvement from oliver. The defense as a whole should improve. Already near the top in many passing stats, it was the run defense that cost the team a few games midseason.
Jauronimo Posted July 21, 2020 Posted July 21, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said: Wow. Shaq had 7; Phillips had 8; Edmunds had 12; Milano had 16. Here is how I look at those numbers. Shaq and Phillips were a REAL problem. They saw the field far less than Edmunds and Milano, and when the did, had farrrrr fewer opportunities for tackles. 7 and 8 is a TON for their respective positions. Edmunds seems right. I don't know where 12 ranks; however, as the MLB, he is in the middle of so many plays. I expect him to be at about 12. Milano is also high. He made 15 fewer tackles on the year than Edmunds, but missed 4 more tackles. That seems like it is creeping too high. People love praising Milano, but I always thought that he, and to a lesser extent Phillips, were the primary culprits of our bad run defense. Milano was out of position far more than Edmunds. The missed tackles sort of adds to that point. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/defense_advanced.htm Put together a quick pivot table to dissect the #s. Took top 300 players on the list, sorted for games started 10 or more. Broke it down by position. Hughes, Lawson, Taron, Jordan Phillips were the worst in missed tackle % as defined by Pro Football Reference. Milano's % was a little above average for ALL linebackers which includes some edge rushers at 13.6% while Tremaine's % was below average at 9.8% Average was 11.0%. New guys: AJ Klein was 9.2%, Mario Addison is a shocking 2.9%, while Quinton Jefferson is on the high side at 16.1%. Hyde, TreDavious, Levi, and Kevin Johnson all compared similarly and slightly above average relative to all defensive backs coming in between 13% and 14%. Poyer at 7.8% was much lower than the 12.3% average. Hughes, Lawson, and Phillips were WAY above the average of 13.8%. DE, DT, and NT was the only positional group with a meaningful spread between average of 13.8% and median of 12.4%. Star was almost exactly average, Murphy was right there at the median, and Lorenzo at 9.8% was below. Oliver at 6.5% was way below average. Vernon Butler is a 5.9%. Edited July 21, 2020 by Jauronimo 1 2
RoyBatty is alive Posted July 21, 2020 Posted July 21, 2020 10 minutes ago, CSBill said: I remember three missed tackles on Deshaun Watson on that game winning play in the play-off game. With both Milano and Siran Neal on top of Watson at the same time. I am not really sure the Bills were as terrible as it looked or D Watson just made an incredible play for the ages.
Mr. WEO Posted July 21, 2020 Posted July 21, 2020 1 hour ago, JESSEFEFFER said: -Missed tackles by the front 7 are covered up by a good tackling secondary. A poor tackling secondary would have to lead to more points, right? Yes.
RoyBatty is alive Posted July 21, 2020 Posted July 21, 2020 (edited) 27 minutes ago, Jauronimo said: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/defense_advanced.htm Those are great stats, the % of missed tackles by Milano & Hughes and Jordan is stunning, according to those stats they missed more than 1 out of every 5 tackles. Milano is undersized and used a lot in coverage so i can believe that but for Phillipsand Hughes to miss that many is ridiculous. Edited July 21, 2020 by RoyBatty is alive
Jauronimo Posted July 21, 2020 Posted July 21, 2020 10 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said: Those are great stats, the % of missed tackles by Milano and Jordan is stunning, according to those stats they both missed more than 1 out of every 5 tackles. Milano is undersized and used a lot in coverage so i can believe that but for Phillips to miss that many is ridiculous. I pasted the data into excel for a better breakdown by position. The results were interesting on a missed tackle % basis by position group. See above for updated post. 1
thebandit27 Posted July 21, 2020 Posted July 21, 2020 35 minutes ago, Jauronimo said: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/defense_advanced.htm Put together a quick pivot table to dissect the #s. Took top 300 players on the list, sorted for games started 10 or more. Broke it down by position. Hughes, Lawson, Taron, Jordan Phillips were the worst in missed tackle % as defined by Pro Football Reference. Milano's % was a little above average for ALL linebackers which includes some edge rushersat 13.6% while Tremaine's % was below average at 9.8% Average was 11.0%. Hyde, TreDavious, Levi, and Kevin Johnson all compared similarly and slightly above average relative to all defensive backs coming in between 13% and 14%. Poyer at 7.8% was much lower than the 12.3% average. Hughes, Lawson, and Phillips were WAY above the average of 13.8%. DE, DT, and NT was the only positional group with a meaningful spread between average of 13.8% and median of 12.4%. Murphy was right there at the median and Lorenzo at 9.8% was below. Oliver at 6.5% was way below average. Good stuff. The encouraging thing is that the staff was acutely aware and made addressing it a priority.
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