My 2014 NFL Draft Evals - Revisited!

[GunnerBill]

Evening all. So just after the Draft @No_Matter_What PM'd me and asked me if I'd consider do revisits of some of my draft evaluations and how they have worked out. I don't think it is fair to really evaluate those classes that haven't come to the end of their rookie deals yet but my very first draft class trying to grade players - the 2014 Draft has. I only evaluated 66 players in 2014, which is about half the number I generally have on my board these days. I was a complete amateur who didn't have much of a system at all in 2014 and yet when I went back to look at my board I was surprised at how decent a job I did..... I will try and have a go at 2015 and 2016 before the season starts (think it is too early to do 2017, that will come after this season) and I rather fear my results will get worse not better - haha! Anyway, without further ado, here goes: 

 

I had 24 first round grades in 2014 here they are in order:

 

1. Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina

2. Mike Evans, WR, Texas A&M

3. Jake Matthews, OT, Texas A&M

4. Ryan Shazier, LB, Ohio State

5. Zack Martin, OT/OG, Notre Dame

6. Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson

7. Aaron Donald, DT, Pittsburgh

8. Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma State

9. Taylor Lewan, OT, Michigan

10. Blake Bortles, QB, UCF

11. Brandin Cooks, WR, Oregon State

12. Kyle Fuller, CB, Virginia Tech

13. Jason Verrett, CB, TCU

14. Khalil Mack, DE, Buffalo

15. C.J. Mosely, LB, Alabama

16. Dee Ford, DE, Auburn

17. Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Florida State ?

18. Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, S, Alabama

19. Cody Latimer, WR, Indiana

20. Stephon Tuitt, DE, Notre Dame 

21. Odell Beckham Jnr, WR, LSU

22. Ja'Wuan James, OT, Tennessee

23. Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville

24. Carlos Hyde, RB, Ohio State

 

So what to make of that when I look back on it now.... I feel I didn't do too bad of a job.... but let's start with the elephants in the room - Mack and Beckham. They are clearly two of the top 4 or 5 players to come out of that draft class. There were reasons I was skeptical of both. There wasn't much game film to pour over with Mack and I'm not even sure I watched 3 whole games of his (which nowadays would mean he wouldn't get a grade a go on the board). I made do with a lot highlights tape of him feasting on bad opposition and while I totally got the "he was the best player on the field" thing I genuinely thought he would have a steep learning curve in the NFL and was concerned he could find himself a bit of a scheme specific tweener. He has totally blown both of those concerns out of the water and #14 was clearly way too low on him. Equally Odell Beckham just never wowed me on film. Interestingly I have been back and watched some of his LSU games again and while I clearly had two garbage receivers ahead of him... more on them later... and my low ranking of Beckham was a total miss I still content he has been a better NFL player than he was college player. The bad college Quarterbacking he suffered through no doubt plays a part in that. 

 

Those two apart though I am pretty happy with my top 7. None of Martin, Donald or Shazier were top 10 picks and none were consensus top 10 players on the talking heads' big boards either, yet I loved all three. Donald is the best defensive player in the NFL, Martin is a top 2 interior olineman and Shazier was having himself a very fine career until that horrific neck injury. I was adamant that Jake Matthews was the best OT in the class, and while he has in reality been 2nd to Lewan, even my untrained eye could tell Greg Robinson (drafted 2nd overall by the Rams) was just a big lump with no technique. I had a 2nd round grade on Robinson. He was in the Cyrus Koundjio "project" bucket on my board. I had them right together in the mid 50s.

 

The two big "misses" in my top 10 were Gilbert.... who I thought was a pretty sure thing.... and Bortles. Bortles was interesting. I didn't love the Quarterback class even though it had a lot of hype. I remember people who weren't sold on EJ being adamant that we should take another and me saying "not only do I think that sends a bad message but I don't think these guys are that good." I had Carr as my QB3 and a high 2nd rounder, Manziel was the 64th player (out of 66) on my board with a 3rd round grade. I think I bumped Bortles up because both Bridgewater and Carr felt "safe, low ceiling" type guys to me. Bortles was raw but toolsy. It was actually missing on Bortles that made me a bit risk averse on toolsy guys (such as Allen) in the years that followed.  The big difference (and the thing I always say is the curse of the amateur scout) is that I had no idea of Bortles character. He didn't help himself succeed because he wasn't a grinder willing to go all in on improving himself. 

 

The two guys I had firsts on who were not first rounders on most boards were Latimer, a real late riser in the process who went round 2 to Denver and Tuitt who went round 2 to Pittsburgh. Tuitt has had a good career and has probably been worthy of a back end of the first grade as a versatile defensive line piece in Pittsburgh who can play at end and then bump down into tackle but Latimer's best year came in 2019 (his 6th season in the league) when he caught 24 balls for 300 yards and 2 touchdowns for the Giants. He signed for Washington as a FA in April. 

 

Other notable hits from the rest of the players I graded:

Joel Bitonio, OT, Nevada was the #26 player on my board. Selected by the Browns in round 2 (#35) and is a two time pro bowler and 2nd team all pro (albeit as a guard). 

Gabe Jackson, OG, Mississippi State was the #31 player on my board. Selected by the Raiders in round 3 (#81) and has started 83 games for them at guard. 

DeMarcus Lawrence, DE, Boise State was the #34 player on my board and was, coincidentally, selected at #34 in round 2 by the Cowboys and is a two time pro bowler and elite pass rusher.

 

Other notable misses from the rest of the players I graded:

Marqise Lee, WR, USC was the #25 player on my board. Selected by the Jaguars in round 2 (#39) he has had two serviceable years and but his best season still only produced 850 yards and 3 touchdowns. The rest of his career he has been way below average. Now with the Pats.

Trent Murphy, DE, Stanford was the #29 player on my board. Selected by Washington in round 2 (#47) and is now just about my least favourite Bill! He has played up to his draft slot... but I was a bit too high on him.

Scott Crichton, DE, Oregon State was the #36 player on my board. Selected in round 3 (#72) by the Vikings. Spent a of time with Minnesota injured, was released in spring 2017 and picked up of waivers by the Bills. He failed the physical was released immediately and has been out of the NFL ever since. 

Terrence West, RB, Towson was the #41 player on my board. Selected in round 3 (#94) by the Browns. I think I called him the hidden gem of the draft. He had some moments as a rookie and in Baltimore in 2016 but he has been out of the league since 2017 and ended with an average yards per carry of below 4.0. That is the opposite of good. 

Josh Huff, WR, Oregon was the #45 player on my board. Selected in round 3 (#86) by the Eagles. Managed fewer than 500 yards and only 4 touchdowns in 3 seasons. Now playing in the CFL. 

 

 

Hope people feel this is an interesting topic in these strange times. If so, I'll do 2015 next. 

[qwksilver]

Gunner, Thanks I like reading these. 

What did you learn from your misses? 

[scuba guy]

Tks gunner always have loved reading these also

Like the interesting takes you have

Even more positive is the bills 14 and 15 draft

[Buffalo716]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Evening all. So just after the Draft @No_Matter_What PM'd me and asked me if I'd consider do revisits of some of my draft evaluations and how they have worked out. I don't think it is fair to really evaluate those classes that haven't come to the end of their rookie deals yet but my very first draft class trying to grade players - the 2014 Draft has. I only evaluated 66 players in 2014, which is about half the number I generally have on my board these days. I was a complete amateur who didn't have much of a system at all in 2014 and yet when I went back to look at my board I was surprised at how decent a job I did..... I will try and have a go at 2015 and 2016 before the season starts (think it is too early to do 2017, that will come after this season) and I rather fear my results will get worse not better - haha! Anyway, without further ado, here goes: 

 

I had 24 first round grades in 2014 here they are in order:

 

1. Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina

2. Mike Evans, WR, Texas A&M

3. Jake Matthews, OT, Texas A&M

4. Ryan Shazier, LB, Ohio State

5. Zack Martin, OT/OG, Notre Dame

6. Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson

7. Aaron Donald, DT, Pittsburgh

8. Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma State

9. Taylor Lewan, OT, Michigan

10. Blake Bortles, QB, UCF

11. Brandin Cooks, WR, Oregon State

12. Kyle Fuller, CB, Virginia Tech

13. Jason Verrett, CB, TCU

14. Khalil Mack, DE, Buffalo

15. C.J. Mosely, LB, Alabama

16. Dee Ford, DE, Auburn

17. Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Florida State ?

18. Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, S, Alabama

19. Cody Latimer, WR, Indiana

20. Stephon Tuitt, DE, Notre Dame 

21. Odell Beckham Jnr, WR, LSU

22. Ja'Wuan James, OT, Tennessee

23. Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville

24. Carlos Hyde, RB, Ohio State

 

So what to make of that when I look back on it now.... I feel I didn't do too bad of a job.... but let's start with the elephants in the room - Mack and Beckham. They are clearly two of the top 4 or 5 players to come out of that draft class. There were reasons I was skeptical of both. There wasn't much game film to pour over with Mack and I'm not even sure I watched 3 whole games of his (which nowadays would mean he wouldn't get a grade a go on the board). I made do with a lot highlights tape of him feasting on bad opposition and while I totally got the "he was the best player on the field" thing I genuinely thought he would have a steep learning curve in the NFL and was concerned he could find himself a bit of a scheme specific tweener. He has totally blown both of those concerns out of the water and #14 was clearly way too low on him. Equally Odell Beckham just never wowed me on film. Interestingly I have been back and watched some of his LSU games again and while I clearly had two garbage receivers ahead of him... more on them later... and my low ranking of Beckham was a total miss I still content he has been a better NFL player than he was college player. The bad college Quarterbacking he suffered through no doubt plays a part in that. 

 

Those two apart though I am pretty happy with my top 7. None of Martin, Donald or Shazier were top 10 picks and none were consensus top 10 players on the talking heads' big boards either, yet I loved all three. Donald is the best defensive player in the NFL, Martin is a top 2 interior olineman and Shazier was having himself a very fine career until that horrific neck injury. I was adamant that Jake Matthews was the best OT in the class, and while he has in reality been 2nd to Lewan, even my untrained eye could tell Greg Robinson (drafted 2nd overall by the Rams) was just a big lump with no technique. I had a 2nd round grade on Robinson. He was in the Cyrus Koundjio "project" bucket on my board. I had them right together in the mid 50s.

 

The two big "misses" in my top 10 were Gilbert.... who I thought was a pretty sure thing.... and Bortles. Bortles was interesting. I didn't love the Quarterback class even though it had a lot of hype. I remember people who weren't sold on EJ being adamant that we should take another and me saying "not only do I think that sends a bad message but I don't think these guys are that good." I had Carr as my QB3 and a high 2nd rounder, Manziel was the 64th player (out of 66) on my board with a 3rd round grade. I think I bumped Bortles up because both Bridgewater and Carr felt "safe, low ceiling" type guys to me. Bortles was raw but toolsy. It was actually missing on Bortles that made me a bit risk averse on toolsy guys (such as Allen) in the years that followed.  The big difference (and the thing I always say is the curse of the amateur scout) is that I had no idea of Bortles character. He didn't help himself succeed because he wasn't a grinder willing to go all in on improving himself. 

 

The two guys I had firsts on who were not first rounders on most boards were Latimer, a real late riser in the process who went round 2 to Denver and Tuitt who went round 2 to Pittsburgh. Tuitt has had a good career and has probably been worthy of a back end of the first grade as a versatile defensive line piece in Pittsburgh who can play at end and then bump down into tackle but Latimer's best year came in 2019 (his 6th season in the league) when he caught 24 balls for 300 yards and 2 touchdowns for the Giants. He signed for Washington as a FA in April. 

 

Other notable hits from the rest of the players I graded:

Joel Bitonio, OT, Nevada was the #26 player on my board. Selected by the Browns in round 2 (#35) and is a two time pro bowler and 2nd team all pro (albeit as a guard). 

Gabe Jackson, OG, Mississippi State was the #31 player on my board. Selected by the Raiders in round 3 (#81) and has started 83 games for them at guard. 

DeMarcus Lawrence, DE, Boise State was the #34 player on my board and was, coincidentally, selected at #34 in round 2 by the Cowboys and is a two time pro bowler and elite pass rusher.

 

Other notable misses from the rest of the players I graded:

Marqise Lee, WR, USC was the #25 player on my board. Selected by the Jaguars in round 2 (#39) he has had two serviceable years and but his best season still only produced 850 yards and 3 touchdowns. The rest of his career he has been way below average. Now with the Pats.

Trent Murphy, DE, Stanford was the #29 player on my board. Selected by Washington in round 2 (#47) and is now just about my least favourite Bill! He has played up to his draft slot... but I was a bit too high on him.

Scott Crichton, DE, Oregon State was the #36 player on my board. Selected in round 3 (#72) by the Vikings. Spent a of time with Minnesota injured, was released in spring 2017 and picked up of waivers by the Bills. He failed the physical was released immediately and has been out of the NFL ever since. 

Terrence West, RB, Towson was the #41 player on my board. Selected in round 3 (#94) by the Browns. I think I called him the hidden gem of the draft. He had some moments as a rookie and in Baltimore in 2016 but he has been out of the league since 2017 and ended with an average yards per carry of below 4.0. That is the opposite of good. 

Josh Huff, WR, Oregon was the #45 player on my board. Selected in round 3 (#86) by the Eagles. Managed fewer than 500 yards and only 4 touchdowns in 3 seasons. Now playing in the CFL. 

 

 

Hope people feel this is an interesting topic in these strange times. If so, I'll do 2015 next. 

how could you watch the Ohio State game and think Khalil Mack was not destined for greatness?

 

Just wondering.. you can literally only play the competition you play so you really can't let that pigeonhole you too much. D1 ball is amazing all over the country

 

Jerry Rice went to Mississippi valley State. Andre Reed went to koontztown state

 

Sure it'd be better if they went to USC, but man Khalil Mack was one of the best college football players I've ever seen and I'm so glad I got to watch him live for 4 years

 

I had him as the number one player in the class on my board, with Donald second

 

Edit I saw you said you didn't watch games of Khalil just a highlight video

 

Mike Evans #1 WR was a great call

Edited July 21, 2020 by Buffalo716

[BringBackFergy]

Remind me not to have you draft my team when I own the Buffalo Grain Mills (post name change)

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, qwksilver said:

Gunner, Thanks I like reading these. 

What did you learn from your misses? 

 

The biggest thing from 2014 which was my first go is that you have to have more than 1 full game

of guys to watch before they go on the board. For example, I had watched A&M a fair amount because they were entertaining. I knew Evans and Matthews were legit NFL players and Manziel wasn't. It really brought home that you need that depth of understanding on every player you grade. 

 

The other big lesson from Mack and Beckham is you have to build context onto what you are watching. Beckham was hurt by bad Quarterbacking and Mack while playing against a lot of low level competition did so incredibly well. 

 

The other thing I learnt is that you won't nail every evaluation. It is perfectly normal to miss on one here and there. 

 

[Aussie Joe]

Little surprising you missed Mack

 

Beckham I can understand.. 

Edited July 21, 2020 by Aussie Joe

[machine gun kelly]

8 hours ago, qwksilver said:

Gunner, Thanks I like reading these. 

What did you learn from your misses? 

GB, pretty cool.  I don’t know if you ever listen in one of their off season series, but the Blitz does a look back at drafts from three years ago, and then evaluates hits, vs. misses.  It’s fun to see in retrospect as they go division by division, and evaluate teams entire draft.  I kind of like it.  Mark Dominic kind of captains this series and he’s a pretty good talent evaluator.

[eball]

Good stuff.

[C.Biscuit97]

10 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

how could you watch the Ohio State game and think Khalil Mack was not destined for greatness?

 

Just wondering.. you can literally only play the competition you play so you really can't let that pigeonhole you too much. D1 ball is amazing all over the country

 

Jerry Rice went to Mississippi valley State. Andre Reed went to koontztown state

 

Sure it'd be better if they went to USC, but man Khalil Mack was one of the best college football players I've ever seen and I'm so glad I got to watch him live for 4 years

 

I had him as the number one player in the class on my board, with Donald second

 

Edit I saw you said you didn't watch games of Khalil just a highlight video

 

Mike Evans #1 WR was a great call

I agree with you on Mack.  This is also why I’m not completely sold on Allen.  If you are playing in a smaller conference, I want to see you dominant that conference I f you’re a top 5 pick.  Mack definitely did.

4 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

Little surprising you missed Mack

 

Beckham I can understand.. 

anyone who tried to pretend that we missed on Beckham is just using hindsight.  He had 2300 yards and 12 tds in 3 seasons.  Sammy was one of the best college receivers I have ever seen.  I also loved Mike Evans because I thought Manziel was garbage. 

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Anyone who tried to pretend that we missed on Beckham is just using hindsight.  He had 2300 yards and 12 tds in 3 seasons.  Sammy was one of the best college receivers I have ever seen.  I also loved Mike Evans because I thought Manziel was garbage. 

 

I loved Evans. He was my guy. I liked Sammy, but I was on record as not wanting Beckham or Ebron. Beckham is a better NFL player than he was in college, for certain. 

[No_Matter_What]

Thanks Gunner, interesting read. Seems that you've done a good job, most good/top players seem to be higher on your board than they were actually taken (with notable exceptions in Mack and Beckham). Curious about following years.

 

What I am partly missing is some comment to other players taken by Bills - in case of this draft we are probably talking about Preston Brown only - but I assume he wasn't on your board at all. At first I thought you did not comment on Kouandjio too but then I noticed him in your text.

 

What will never stop to fascinate me are those busts. How the hell can so many scouts be wrong on guys like Greg Robinson or Justin Gilbert? 

 

Anyway, looking back, this was really amazing top-heavy draft with some elite players. Who do you guys think has a HOF potential as of now? I've been following NFL too shortly to know how relatively good those guys there are, but I'd guess Donald, Martin and to lesser extent Mack are "locks" and there is a large group of players who have some chances - Clowney, Evans, Barr, Lewan, Beckham, Fuller, Mosley, Lawrence, Adams, Landry... Or are guys like Evans and Beckham also "locks" provided that they have long enough careers?

 

 

[GunnerBill]

Yea Barr is another I didn't like as much as the consensus. I had him right at the top of round 2. 

 

I hadn't scouted anyone the Bills picked after Sammy other than Koundjio who I had as a boom and bust project tackle mid to low 2nd round. 

[RyanC883]

This is a really good ranking overall.  Watkins looked like a future HOF wide receiver.  What a miss by everyone on that.  

 

If Shazier does not get hurt, he likely ends up at #1 perhaps from that draft class.  I had him much lower, he really surprised me.  

[Freddie's Dead]

20 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I had 24 first round grades in 2014 here they are in order:

 

1. Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina

2. Mike Evans, WR, Texas A&M

3. Jake Matthews, OT, Texas A&M

4. Ryan Shazier, LB, Ohio State

5. Zack Martin, OT/OG, Notre Dame

6. Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson

7. Aaron Donald, DT, Pittsburgh

8. Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma State

9. Taylor Lewan, OT, Michigan

10. Blake Bortles, QB, UCF

11. Brandin Cooks, WR, Oregon State

12. Kyle Fuller, CB, Virginia Tech

13. Jason Verrett, CB, TCU

14. Khalil Mack, DE, Buffalo

15. C.J. Mosely, LB, Alabama

16. Dee Ford, DE, Auburn

17. Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Florida State ?

18. Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, S, Alabama

19. Cody Latimer, WR, Indiana

20. Stephon Tuitt, DE, Notre Dame 

21. Odell Beckham Jnr, WR, LSU

22. Ja'Wuan James, OT, Tennessee

23. Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville

24. Carlos Hyde, RB, Ohio State

<snip>

Equally Odell Beckham just never wowed me on film. Interestingly I have been back and watched some of his LSU games again and while I clearly had two garbage receivers ahead of him... more on them later... and my low ranking of Beckham was a total miss I still content he has been a better NFL player than he was college player. The bad college Quarterbacking he suffered through no doubt plays a part in that. 

 

 

Where's the more?  I was waiting for you to down a huge helping of crow on Sammy Watkins Jr.....  

Edited July 21, 2020 by Freddie's Dead

[MJS]

8 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I agree with you on Mack.  This is also why I’m not completely sold on Allen.  If you are playing in a smaller conference, I want to see you dominant that conference I f you’re a top 5 pick.  Mack definitely did.

anyone who tried to pretend that we missed on Beckham is just using hindsight.  He had 2300 yards and 12 tds in 3 seasons.  Sammy was one of the best college receivers I have ever seen.  I also loved Mike Evans because I thought Manziel was garbage. 

Beckham had a lot of doubters and his hands were one of the things he was doubted on because he had some drops, if I remember. He was definately not considered the top WR and people totally use hindsight when saying the Bills should have taken him instead of Watkins.

 

The one question I had with Watkins was how he was used in college. They got him in space a lot with bubble screens and gadget plays. I wondered if he would be able to operate as a pure outside WR. But I was super excited we drafted him.

43 minutes ago, Freddie's Dead said:

 

Where's the more?  I was waiting for you to down a huge helping of crow on Sammy Watkins Jr.....  

Everyone on the planet thought Watkins was the top WR.

[Buffalo716]

@GunnerBillwhat made you so high on Evans?

 

He obviously was a freak but what had you have him above Watkins?

[Freddie's Dead]

10 minutes ago, MJS said:

Everyone on the planet thought Watkins was the top WR.

 

Not me, I was going for OBJ.  But no way do I blow 3 first rounders on a WR.  When I heard the trade, I thought it was Mack, but nooooo....

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

@GunnerBillwhat made you so high on Evans?

 

He obviously was a freak but what had you have him above Watkins?

 

I thought he had everything. Hands? Check. Separation? Check. Release? Check. Ability to high point the football? Check. Physical? Check. I think he was a better athlete than he got credit for and I knew he would outperform expectations at the Combine and he did. To me he was the reason Johnny Manziel was ever even considered a 1st round prospect. 

 

Sammy to me was a phenomenal, explosive, play maker.... but Clemson manufactured a lot of touches for him and I saw him as someone who needed to be a high volume guy to be elite. 

[MJS]

6 minutes ago, Freddie's Dead said:

 

Not me, I was going for OBJ.  But no way do I blow 3 first rounders on a WR.  When I heard the trade, I thought it was Mack, but nooooo....

It's up to 3 now!?