Fantasy Football comparison JA vs Lamar - with good non FF insights as well

[thebandit27]

1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

You’re not comparing apples to apples.  In a much better conference, with not a ton of talent around him, Wilson was still a more accurate passer than Allen.  He hasn’t been below 60 in his nfl career.  If we reviewed all his NCSU film, I would guess the problem was more the team around him.

 

this is why people (myself included) are worried about Allen.  Could he become more accurate? Sure.  But when predicting prospects, you try to use the evidence you have.  Allen has never been over 60 (a low benchmark in football now) at any level.  At some point, a pattern becomes a trend.  In the last 10 years, when passing became easier than ever, has there ever been a qb drafted that high with a worse completion percentage against worse competition?  I’m genuinely asking.  Allen needs to be the absolute exception to every rule.  
 

maybe he can but if he was an another team, most people here would have more serious doubts about him getting there.  The good news is they have placed a lot of talent around him and with a really good defense, he doesn’t need to carry the team.  But I really want to see the games this year when we won because of Allen and the offense and not in spite of them.  

Not only could he become more accurate; he already has. Significantly so.

 

And again: if 60% matters so much, just ask his targets to improve from worst in the NFL to even average in terms of drop percentage and he’s there in 2019. Also, since we talked Cam, he (in your words) carried his team to the Super Bowl on the back of 59.8% completions.

 

But all of that is secondary to the fact that, yes, accuracy is often improved in the NFL. Drew Brees entered the league as a 61% passer. He became the most accurate QB ever. And he’s hardly a unique case. From Ryan to Stafford to Goff to many others, QBs often get more accurate.

[MJS]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

Shhh you can't 'learn' accuracy, it comes and goes as it pleases

Because completion percentage is not a measure of accuracy. Tons of factors go into it.

 

Just don't get how people don't realize this by now...

1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

You’re not comparing apples to apples.  In a much better conference, with not a ton of talent around him, Wilson was still a more accurate passer than Allen.  He hasn’t been below 60 in his nfl career.  If we reviewed all his NCSU film, I would guess the problem was more the team around him.

 

this is why people (myself included) are worried about Allen.  Could he become more accurate? Sure.  But when predicting prospects, you try to use the evidence you have.  Allen has never been over 60 (a low benchmark in football now) at any level.  At some point, a pattern becomes a trend.  In the last 10 years, when passing became easier than ever, has there ever been a qb drafted that high with a worse completion percentage against worse competition?  I’m genuinely asking.  Allen needs to be the absolute exception to every rule.  
 

maybe he can but if he was an another team, most people here would have more serious doubts about him getting there.  The good news is they have placed a lot of talent around him and with a really good defense, he doesn’t need to carry the team.  But I really want to see the games this year when we won because of Allen and the offense and not in spite of them.  

What a bunch of hooey.

 

So we don't get to account for the lack of talent around Josh Allen in college and the pros, but we can do that for Wilson?

[GoBills808]

6 minutes ago, MJS said:

Because completion percentage is not a measure of accuracy. Tons of factors go into it.

 

Just don't get how people don't realize this by now...

What a bunch of hooey.

 

So we don't get to account for the lack of talent around Josh Allen in college and the pros, but we can do that for Wilson?

There are so many QBs who 'improve their accuracy' lol as measure by comp%

 

The people stuck on 60% like it isn't some completely arbitrary benchmark are ridiculous

[Alphadawg7]

4 hours ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

I’m hoping for Allen to start to play more like R. Wilson. Wilson has been more accurate passing each year and doesn’t take hits when he runs with the football.

 

Ive been saying for a long time that for me Allen compares a lot more to guys like Wilson and Steve Young even though he was predominantly compared to Cam Newton.  I get the Newton comparisons, but at the end of the day, Allen has so much more upside as a QB and I think once he dials it in fully he will be substantially more like Wilson, Young, Big Ben type QB.  A guy who is a QB first, but without a shadow of a doubt can still kill you at any moment with his ability to run.  And as he gets better as a passer, the running will become less frequent because he just won't have to do it as much anymore.  

 

Newton was a aways a guy where his running will always need to be a big part of his game in order to play at his best.  He just isn't quite ever going to be that pure QB where I do believe Allen has that potential.  And I think Allen will show it THIS year.  

 

For me, Allen is a hot player to draft in fantasy football, and I have used him to a high degree success his first 2 seasons, both of which I won the championship in the league I had him as a key contributor.  Although to be fair, last season, I cut Allen and Cousins for my fantasy Super Bowl due to matchups and added Fitz and Perriman for the final week in which both helped me win the title as Fitz went off big time and put up like 40 points.  I think I will target Allen as a starter for me after the first handful of guys are off the board in like round 8 to 10.  Then pair him with a quality backup later...like Cousins or maybe even Cam Newton or a Big Ben, both of which should be good late round values.  

 

Allen to me will finish in the top 5 without question in fantasy next year and could be top 3 IMO.  But I already know people are going to go after (in no particular order) Mahomes, Watson, Lamar, Wilson, Rodgers, Brees, Murray etc before they look at Allen.  So I will focus on my other positions while they make a run on those other QB's then snag Allen once I feel it may be my last shot to grab him before my next pick.  Its the best part about living in CA and being the only Bills fan in my fantasy leagues, I always get great value on the Bills players.  Although I think people will pay more attention this year, I still know they will all probably go later than they should like Diggs, Brown, Devin and Allen

[JESSEFEFFER]

1 hour ago, Captain Hindsight said:

It is but most of it comes from mechanics, not unlike golfing if you are off in your motions, grip, speed, torque ect, the ball is going to move on ya. If you have good mechanics, you get more accurate.

 

IMO Josh's accuracy is more than adequate. He just doesn't checkdown on 3rd and 18 so he has a 58% completion percentage instead of 65%. You will punt if its incomplete or only gains 10 yards. Might as well go for it 

I get your point.  Depth of target/lack of checkdowns, 10 or so drops above average, spikes/throwaway, 3 or 4 extra windy games.  They all eat at completion %.  He was 62+% in road games.

 

If his work on shot plays pays off like I think it will, combined with roster improvements and better OL play, this offense should be at 400 or more points.

[JESSEFEFFER]

15 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Ive been saying for a long time that for me Allen compares a lot more to guys like Wilson and Steve Young even though he was predominantly compared to Cam Newton.  I get the Newton comparisons, but at the end of the day, Allen has so much more upside as a QB and I think once he dials it in fully he will be substantially more like Wilson, Young, Big Ben type QB.  A guy who is a QB first, but without a shadow of a doubt can still kill you at any moment with his ability to run.  And as he gets better as a passer, the running will become less frequent because he just won't have to do it as much anymore.  

 

Newton was a aways a guy where his running will always need to be a big part of his game in order to play at his best.  He just isn't quite ever going to be that pure QB where I do believe Allen has that potential.  And I think Allen will show it THIS year.  

 

For me, Allen is a hot player to draft in fantasy football, and I have used him to a high degree success his first 2 seasons, both of which I won the championship in the league I had him as a key contributor.  Although to be fair, last season, I cut Allen and Cousins for my fantasy Super Bowl due to matchups and added Fitz and Perriman for the final week in which both helped me win the title as Fitz went off big time and put up like 40 points.  I think I will target Allen as a starter for me after the first handful of guys are off the board in like round 8 to 10.  Then pair him with a quality backup later...like Cousins or maybe even Cam Newton or a Big Ben, both of which should be good late round values.  

 

Allen to me will finish in the top 5 without question in fantasy next year and could be top 3 IMO.  But I already know people are going to go after (in no particular order) Mahomes, Watson, Lamar, Wilson, Rodgers, Brees, Murray etc before they look at Allen.  So I will focus on my other positions while they make a run on those other QB's then snag Allen once I feel it may be my last shot to grab him before my next pick.  Its the best part about living in CA and being the only Bills fan in my fantasy leagues, I always get great value on the Bills players.  Although I think people will pay more attention this year, I still know they will all probably go later than they should like Diggs, Brown, Devin and Allen

I do not think Devin gets enough goal to go carries to make him a FF stud.  Josh's redzone running bleeds TDs from others and lowers his own passing TDs.

[HardyBoy]

3 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Another article mired in data analysis that, in my mind, is unwarranted. Using data the author concludes that Allen's deep balls are a key element to making him, perhaps, the top fantasy quarterback in the league.  Now, maybe for fantasy purposes you can get there, but even I will admit that based on last season, ANY analysis that suggests the deep ball is one of Allen's strengths is suspect.

 

Still, as the OP says, it's interesting to read an article that is thoughtful AND optimistic about Allen. The author doesn't get caught up in the conventional wisdom about Allen (he's "raw," he's a "project," he isn't accurate, he can't throw the deep ball, he has a long way to go) and instead sees what a lot of Bills fans see - a really talented quarterback who has made a lot of plays in two years and who seems to be improving significantly and continuously.  For example, he admits to being surprised when he first saw that someone said Allen was an MVP darkhouse, but when he considered the idea, he realized the idea wasn't as absurd as national fans (and Bills fans who don't believe in Allen) seem to think. 

 

Thanks for posting. 

 

 

I haven't read the article yet, but I do think we are undervaluing the impact the wind had on JAs stats last year, especially the deep ball. The second half of the season had almost every game impacted by significant wind.

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

There are so many QBs who 'improve their accuracy' lol as measure by comp%

 

The people stuck on 60% like it isn't some completely arbitrary benchmark are ridiculous

 

If the Bills didn't have the highest drop percentage in the league, and instead they were just middle of the road, Allen would be over 60%, and we wouldn't be having this debate. 

Edited June 30, 2020 by JoshAllenHasBigHands

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

3 hours ago, Mark80 said:

I have a feeling Lamar is going to regress significantly next season.  The Bills and the Titans provided the blue print to slowing down that offense.  The NFL is a copycat league.  Look for teams to utilize similar strategies to force him to pass to the outside and focus on rush containment. 

 

That blueprint involves having really good safeties, and a stout rush defense.  

54 minutes ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

I do not think Devin gets enough goal to go carries to make him a FF stud.  Josh's redzone running bleeds TDs from others and lowers his own passing TDs.

 

Now Moss also bleeds into that number.  But when the goal lines there and your QB is a stud on sneaks I'll sneak it 100 times out of 100.  

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, HardyBoy said:

 

I haven't read the article yet, but I do think we are undervaluing the impact the wind had on JAs stats last year, especially the deep ball. The second half of the season had almost every game impacted by significant wind.

That's an interesting point.  There were an unusual number of high-wind games at New Era last year.  

 

That's another factor in QB maturation. Every time a young QB throws in that wind, he learns something.  Over time, literally over years, he learns how to make throws under different conditions in the stadium.  A veteran QB in his wind-challenged home stadium develops a real home-field advantage on windy days.  Eli was tougher at home than away, because the wind in the old and the new stadium is tough, but he had learned it. 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

7 hours ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

I’m hoping for Allen to start to play more like R. Wilson. Wilson has been more accurate passing each year and doesn’t take hits when he runs with the football.

Wilson has always been accurate...  it’s that Mahomes or Rodgers baseball thing again. 
 

It’s incredible they are so gifted at throwing they don’t even need to have the the mechanics stuff that these more conventional guys have to obsess about then drill into their subconscious somehow. 
 

Russ can be running left full sprint then drop a 40 yard back corner EZ dime to this fingertips of a outstretched triple covered wr. 

[Shaw66]

23 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

Wilson has always been accurate...  it’s that Mahomes or Rodgers baseball thing again. 
 

It’s incredible they are so gifted at throwing they don’t even need to have the the mechanics stuff that these more conventional guys have to obsess about then drill into their subconscious somehow. 
 

Russ can be running left full sprint then drop a 40 yard back corner EZ dime to this fingertips of a outstretched triple covered wr. 

It's baseball or something. All three that you mention are naturally accurate. Brady seems to be disciplined accuracy. He has learned to do everything right mechanically, so he makes accurate throws when he's in sync. The other three are naturally accurate - they are exceptional athlete's who are always able to get some necessary part of their bodies in position to make the right throw.  Hips open, hips closed, off the wrong foot, whatever, they get arm motion and release that makes for an accurate throw. 

 

Allen doesn't have that. I think Allen is a better natural thrower than Brady, but not on the same level as the other three.  Allen needs to learn to be in sync more often - in sync, meaning understanding where the play is going so he has time to get his body in at least a decent throwing position.  He doesn't always do that. Brady doesn't do it only when he doesn't have time. 

 

Maybe put another way, it's almost as though Mahomes, Wilson and Rodgers don't need any time to get ready to throw - they're always ready. Brady and Allen need time to get ready, and Brady buys the time by making quick decisions, deciding earlier than Allen allows him time to get ready. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

9 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

It's baseball or something. All three that you mention are naturally accurate. Brady seems to be disciplined accuracy. He has learned to do everything right mechanically, so he makes accurate throws when he's in sync. The other three are naturally accurate - they are exceptional athlete's who are always able to get some necessary part of their bodies in position to make the right throw.  Hips open, hips closed, off the wrong foot, whatever, they get arm motion and release that makes for an accurate throw. 

 

Allen doesn't have that. I think Allen is a better natural thrower than Brady, but not on the same level as the other three.  Allen needs to learn to be in sync more often - in sync, meaning understanding where the play is going so he has time to get his body in at least a decent throwing position.  He doesn't always do that. Brady doesn't do it only when he doesn't have time. 

 

Maybe put another way, it's almost as though Mahomes, Wilson and Rodgers don't need any time to get ready to throw - they're always ready. Brady and Allen need time to get ready, and Brady buys the time by making quick decisions, deciding earlier than Allen allows him time to get ready. 

 

Yeah, its like their bottom half mechanics don't matter as much sometimes because they have an innate ability to throw off platform.  Mahomes and Wilson especially do this better than anyone. 

 

Allen's accuracy while scrambling isn't noticeably terrible, its more so when he's working the pocket and just widens his base.  His deep throws also tend to be all arm, and he tends to not step into them.  For whatever reason (could be reps, who knows), allen is not able to make those adjustments like mahomes and wilson while throwing off platform.  What i want is for him to throw from the correct platform when he has that time and availability, too often he is way too wide.  From a timing perspective he can be late a bit too much as well.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

25 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

It's baseball or something. All three that you mention are naturally accurate. Brady seems to be disciplined accuracy. He has learned to do everything right mechanically, so he makes accurate throws when he's in sync. The other three are naturally accurate - they are exceptional athlete's who are always able to get some necessary part of their bodies in position to make the right throw.  Hips open, hips closed, off the wrong foot, whatever, they get arm motion and release that makes for an accurate throw. 

 

Allen doesn't have that. I think Allen is a better natural thrower than Brady, but not on the same level as the other three.  Allen needs to learn to be in sync more often - in sync, meaning understanding where the play is going so he has time to get his body in at least a decent throwing position.  He doesn't always do that. Brady doesn't do it only when he doesn't have time. 

 

Maybe put another way, it's almost as though Mahomes, Wilson and Rodgers don't need any time to get ready to throw - they're always ready. Brady and Allen need time to get ready, and Brady buys the time by making quick decisions, deciding earlier than Allen allows him time to get ready. 

great Synopsis. Drew Brees is another I would put in Brady’s category as well as manning. They work or worked relentlessly to position their body’s on platform to deliver accuracy. 
 

and it’s not athlete vs pocket passer thing. For example I think Cam is in the same category as Allen. They are incredibly athletic, but really need mechanics to throw well. 
 

im betting if you grab any starting major league short stop, they might throw footballs sort of like Russ Arod and Pat, provided they’ve got hand size to grip it. 

 

I’m  also guessing baker mayfield and Kyler Murray were very good shortstops as well. 

 

 

Edited June 30, 2020 by Over 29 years of fanhood

[John from Riverside]

5 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

 

Besides his freshman year, Wilson had a higher % in the ACC than Allen had in the MWC. He also had 32 and 28 td passes at NCSU.
 

he also hasn’t been below 60 in the nfl.  Based on that, it seems like NCSU was the outliner and he was barely below 60 there.  https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/russell-wilson-1.html

You really didnt answer the question

[GoBills808]

29 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

It's baseball or something. All three that you mention are naturally accurate. Brady seems to be disciplined accuracy. He has learned to do everything right mechanically, so he makes accurate throws when he's in sync. The other three are naturally accurate - they are exceptional athlete's who are always able to get some necessary part of their bodies in position to make the right throw.  Hips open, hips closed, off the wrong foot, whatever, they get arm motion and release that makes for an accurate throw. 

 

Allen doesn't have that. I think Allen is a better natural thrower than Brady, but not on the same level as the other three.  Allen needs to learn to be in sync more often - in sync, meaning understanding where the play is going so he has time to get his body in at least a decent throwing position.  He doesn't always do that. Brady doesn't do it only when he doesn't have time. 

 

Maybe put another way, it's almost as though Mahomes, Wilson and Rodgers don't need any time to get ready to throw - they're always ready. Brady and Allen need time to get ready, and Brady buys the time by making quick decisions, deciding earlier than Allen allows him time to get ready. 

Agree w all of this except Wilson imo is closer to the Brady/Brees group wrt throwing...he's for the most part a one platform guy. His legs are tree trunks so he gets a ton of power but still mostly that open shoulder overhand delivery. Freaky arms Mahomes, Rodgers, in terms of being able to deliver accurately from all angles Allen's throwing is closer to them but clearly still needs work on his base. The two throws to Beasley vs Dallas and Baltimore are those kinds of deliveries.

[CorkScrewHill]

7 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

 

Besides his freshman year, Wilson had a higher % in the ACC than Allen had in the MWC. He also had 32 and 28 td passes at NCSU.
 

he also hasn’t been below 60 in the nfl.  Based on that, it seems like NCSU was the outliner and he was barely below 60 there.  https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/russell-wilson-1.html

But now he is at 73% .. so people can improve .. thank you for the excellent point. I hadn't thought to tie similarities to how Russell Wilson improved his accuracy thereby disproving the theory that accuracy cannot be learned. You sir deserve accolades for being willing to change your opinion based on facts. Some people would dig in and cherry pick only facts that help their own viewpoint, but you took the bold step of correcting your own fallacy. Kudos!

[oldmanfan]

While not naming names, there are some who, if you tell them the sky is blue, will argue that the sky is green.  Multiple posters provide data as to the fact that the sky is blue, explain why the math says the sky is blue, point out how skies in other planets and solar systems are blue, will show pictures of blue skies, and so on.  And what happens?  Those few unfortunate souls will still insist no matter what the sky is green.

 

I’m not arguing with the sky is green folks anymore.  Accuracy is not defined by completion rate, if you want to be obtuse enough to insists on it than Allen improved last year, and regardless we all know he needs to continue making progress this season.

 

The sky is blue, not green.

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

11 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

While not naming names, there are some who, if you tell them the sky is blue, will argue that the sky is green.  Multiple posters provide data as to the fact that the sky is blue, explain why the math says the sky is blue, point out how skies in other planets and solar systems are blue, will show pictures of blue skies, and so on.  And what happens?  Those few unfortunate souls will still insist no matter what the sky is green.

 

I’m not arguing with the sky is green folks anymore.  Accuracy is not defined by completion rate, if you want to be obtuse enough to insists on it than Allen improved last year, and regardless we all know he needs to continue making progress this season.

 

The sky is blue, not green.

The sky seems blue to us in our very limited perception of the electromagnetic spectrum. It is blue to us, but not in an objective sense.  ?

[Buffalo Junction]

2 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Agree w all of this except Wilson imo is closer to the Brady/Brees group wrt throwing...he's for the most part a one platform guy. His legs are tree trunks so he gets a ton of power but still mostly that open shoulder overhand delivery. Freaky arms Mahomes, Rodgers, in terms of being able to deliver accurately from all angles Allen's throwing is closer to them but clearly still needs work on his base. The two throws to Beasley vs Dallas and Baltimore are those kinds of deliveries.

One thing that Wilson, Mahomes, and Rodgers all do rather consistently is line up their front foot to where they want the ball to go.... even when in the air or traveling sideways.