Poll: Josh Allen's asset value

[billykay]

On 6/29/2020 at 12:19 PM, C.Biscuit97 said:

I don’t think any team is trading a 1st for him.  This is a make or break year.  The nfl isn’t as high on him like this board is.  He’s still a pretty raw QB.

If Miami received 2 First Rounders for an OL, we would at least get that plus.

[VW82]

20 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Using a draft pick on a college QB is exactly that, though. Does Allen have a better chance of being a franchise QB than Tua? What about Justin Hebert? In this hypothetical scenario some team would give up an early 1st round pick for him.

 

Picks lose value as soon as you take someone until such time that the player proves they can play at a level commensurate with where they were selected. It's the same in all pro sports leagues.

 

The main thing Tua has going for him is no one has seen him fail in the NFL yet whereas everyone has seen Josh go through the typical growing pains you often see from a young QB. Tua also has two more years than Josh on his rookie contract which is super valuable if you think he can perform right away. 

[HappyDays]

14 minutes ago, VW82 said:

 

Picks lose value as soon as you take someone until such time that the player proves they can play at a level commensurate with where they were selected. It's the same in all pro sports leagues.

 

The main thing Tua has going for him is no one has seen him fail in the NFL yet whereas everyone has seen Josh go through the typical growing pains you often see from a young QB. Tua also has two more years than Josh on his rookie contract which is super valuable if you think he can perform right away. 

 

Do you think any team would trade Josh Allen for Justin Hebert right now if they had the option? If not I would say the floor for a Josh Allen trade is pick #6.

[Mr. WEO]

On 6/29/2020 at 9:01 AM, CorkScrewHill said:

There are enough people who think (excluding sports "journalists") that Josh ceiling is very high and the importance of Quarterbacks is so high .. you would get multiple first rounders for him. He has answered many of the unknowns about him and has improved on others. If at least two other GMs really liked him ( and there would be two that do) he would fetch a ton. having stated that for the very same reaspons I wouldn't trade him for any picks and for nobody not named Patrick Mahommes or Russell Wilson

 

You do not disappoint (from the guy whom has cornered the market on starting glowing Josh threads).

 

At 30 passing TDs in 28 games, 184 YPG (only 6.6 YPA) and 56% completion rate.....I don't think he's "answered many of the unknowns".  Today?  The Bills are not getting 2 1st round picks for him.

Edited June 30, 2020 by Mr. WEO

[NewEra]

I wouldn’t trade Josh Allen for 1 first rd pick unless it was guaranteed to be in position to draft Trevor Lawrence.  
 

If Trevor Lawrence was off the table, I wouldn’t trade Josh allen for 2 1st round picks.  Probably wouldn’t trade him for 3 either.  
 

Not that I think he is a sure fire superstar.  Still needs a lot of work, but he just fits.  He’s the guy I want to lead us to our elusive super bowl victory.

[VW82]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Do you think any team would trade Josh Allen for Justin Hebert right now if they had the option? If not I would say the floor for a Josh Allen trade is pick #6.

 

I don't know but I don't think that's the right way of looking at it. Consider a scenario where the prospects are equal. Who would you rather have then? 

 

Part of the value of the draft pick is getting to make the decision. Once a player is picked, he's just a player. Herbert is just a player, but one who has two additional years of team control. Josh is someone who's two years in and hasn't proven yet to be a franchise guy. I might still rather have him but that's my bias. We haven't seen Herbert yet so we don't know for sure. Both guys felt like soft top 10 overall players coming into the draft.    

Edited July 1, 2020 by VW82

[NoSaint]

1 minute ago, VW82 said:

 

I don't know but I don't think that's the right way of looking at it. Consider a scenario where the prospects are equal. Who would you rather have then? 

 

Part of the value of the draft pick is getting to make the decision. Once a player is picked, he's just a player. Herbert is just a player, but one who has two additional years of team control. Josh is someone who's two years in and hasn't proven yet to be a franchise guy. I might still rather have him but that's my bias. We haven't seen Herbert yet so we don't know for sure. Both guys felt like soft top 10 QBs coming in.    

Ultimately, if you don’t think either is THE GUY but both are acceptable players the one with the rookie deal is far more valuable. Middle of the pack qbs tank in value on deal #2 but are fantastic on a rookie deal. 
 

if you think either is a solid boom or bust, that obviously quickly changes the equation. 

[Alphadawg7]

It would more than just one first round pick, that much I can promise you, 100%.  

 

The wrong Josh (Rosen) after a bad first season in AZ still fetched a second rounder after his team that traded up for him gave up on him after one season.  The fact a second round pick is an option in this poll is utterly absurd.  And anyone who picked second rounder or later is a fool just hating and has no grasp of reality.   

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

You do not disappoint (from the guy whom has cornered the market on starting glowing Josh threads).

 

At 30 passing TDs in 28 games, 184 YPG (only 6.6 YPA) and 56% completion rate.....I don't think he's "answered many of the unknowns".  Today?  The Bills are not getting 2 1st round picks for him.

wrong.  He had 30 total TDs last year alone.  You don’t get to give Lamar credit for being a duel threat or Newton and not Allen.  That’s so stupid when people only post passing stats, especially when he’s had a mostly weak to terrible receiving cast around him for 2 seasons too where Bills led league in drops last 2 years.

Edited July 1, 2020 by Alphadawg7

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

It would more than just one first round pick, that much I can promise you, 100%.  

 

The wrong Josh (Rosen) after a bad first season in AZ still fetched a second rounder after his team that traded up for him gave up on him after one season.  The fact a second round pick is an option in this poll is utterly absurd.  And anyone who picked second rounder or later is a fool just hating and has no grasp of reality.   

wrong.  He had 30 total TDs last year alone.  You don’t get to give Lamar credit for being a duel threat or Newton and not Allen.  That’s so stupid when people only post passing stats, especially when he’s had a mostly weak to terrible receiving cast around him for 2 seasons too where Bills led league in drops last 2 years.

 

Ok.  Jackson had 43 TDs.  No matter how you slice it, Josh had far fewer passing TDs by a mile and 2 more rushing TDs (and 700 fewer rushing yards) than a guy who threw it fewer times than any starter int he NFL.  Bills had 5% of passes dropped.  Ravens 2.9%.  Big deal.

 

As a dual threat, Jackson won and it wasn't close.  That's not "stupid".

 

 

Edited July 1, 2020 by Mr. WEO

[JOE IN HAMPTON ROADS]

Ive come to the realization Josh Allen is the TSLA of NFL quarterbacks.  You either believe or you doubt.

 

Ill keep both my TSLA and my JA, thank you.  And in 3-5 years we will know if the Bills finally won a Superbowl and if TSLA is worth $4k a share.  

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Ok.  Jackson had 43 TDs.  No matter how you slice it, Josh had far fewer passing TDs by a mile and 2 more rushing TDs (and 700 fewer rushing yards) than a guy who threw it fewer times than any starter int he NFL.  Bills had 5% of passes dropped.  Ravens 2.9%.  Big deal.

 

As a dual threat, Jackson won and it wasn't close.  That's not "stupid".

 

 

I didn’t compare them as if Josh should have been MVP.  I said it’s stupid to credit other dual threats with their dual threat ability and ignore Josh’s.  Josh had 30 TDS, that’s nothing to mock.  And in his 2nd year, with 9 new starters, tiny WRs, several scrub WRs, and ancient RB and a roomie RB.  
 

He would fetch a LOT if he was traded.  Period.  Rosen is trash, was given up on after one season, and still got a 2nd.  Josh would go for more than just one first round pick.  

[Capco]

One thing to keep in mind on this topic is demand.  How high is the demand for a QB right now?  I know I know, it's a QB driven league, there's never enough QBs and what not, but Josh still hasn't proven himself to the rest of the league yet.  

 

Cam Newton, former NFL MVP, wasn't even on a team until 2 days ago.  

 

Rather than just say he might be worth some random pick, does anyone have a specific trade with a specific team in mind?  

Edited July 1, 2020 by Capco

[CorkScrewHill]

5 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

You do not disappoint (from the guy whom has cornered the market on starting glowing Josh threads).

 

At 30 passing TDs in 28 games, 184 YPG (only 6.6 YPA) and 56% completion rate.....I don't think he's "answered many of the unknowns".  Today?  The Bills are not getting 2 1st round picks for him.

1) I am glad I do not disappoint you Mr. Weo .. my life hinges on your acceptance of me. This truly made my week. Truly you are too kind.

2) I spot articles that interest me and yes I tend to lean toward more hopeful, but I am just a positive guy. Note 1: I am pleased that there are cynics such as yourself to keep me grounded in my unwarranted euphoria. Note 2: I do not think that Josh has arrived and I think there is a decent chance he never gets to where we need him to be to get us into Super Bowl contention on a regular basis, but I also think there have been plenty of positive signs including leadership (the team clearly rallies around him), toughness, progress in eliminating interceptions (2 in the last 11 games last year), accuracy in the intermediate throws (this was a weakness in his rookie year and he was near the top in this category in 2019), and his clear desire to get better to name some.

3) I get there is plenty to work on - he takes too many sacks against the best defenses; he fumbles too much; he lacks touch (everything is a fastball) which I think contributes to the large drop numbers from his receivers; he tries to take things that aren't there (e.g., the lateral from hell); and the deep ball.

 

As for the 38 TDs ... adding his rushing TDs to his passing TDs for 2019 he would finish 6th among all quarterbacks and unless they changed the rules and award extra points for passing TDs ... I am not certain that I or you should care how they are achieved, but as a stat purist maybe you have some insights into why being 6th overall is not positive progress.

 

So while you don't think he has answered many of the unknowns .. I do for the reasons stated above, and as referenced above I am still not certain he is the long term answer but I have hope that he is based on what I have seen.

 

Also if my positive posts offend you, please feel free to avoid them in the future. I would hate to be the cause of frustration on your part.

Edited July 1, 2020 by CorkScrewHill

[Madd Charlie]

Hey you, yeah you, the person who is about to read half of this and then complain about my assumptions and how long this is. Don't even read it bro just keep it moving. Its my time and I can do whatever I want with it. 

 

This is dumb but i'll play. 32 teams in the NFL how many of those teams want a possible franchise QB who helped take his team to the playoffs in his 2nd year in the NFL with no proven #1 receiver, no top 10 RB, no top 10 offensive line like Josh Allen did? Most people who actually know anything about football agree that he will either stay the same or get better. I haven't even really heard the worst of JA trolls say that he will be worse this year. My point here is that the more interest there is the more compensation there would be in a trade right? Teams that I think would either have no interest or couldn't justify going after JA based on their current QB situation: Chiefs (DUH- should have taken him when we had the chance? Probs but water under the bridge), Saints (JA could be a beast under Payton in that O but Brees plays two more then hangs it up), Seahawks, Ravens, Texans, Packers, Bucs, Eagles, Lions, 49ers, Cowboys(unless of course ...), Falcons, Panthers (maybe, except for recent big investment in Bridgewater), Titans, Colts, Vikings, Rams, Cards, Browns, Jets (won't go there now), Giants, Bengals, Broncos (ask again after the season), Dolphins, Chargers.

 

In my head that leaves possible suitors as: Steelers, Jags, Raiders, Bears, Pats, Redskins. Teams want a mobile QB these days. JA happens to be the biggest and strongest of them all, and he owns a rocket launcher, and he has playoff experience, and hes run for more first downs and TDs than most of the best RBs in the league in the last two years.  

 

There would be no existing fair comparison for this trade that I can find, it would be pretty much unprecedented. Some comparisons to consider: 1. Tampa trades Young after his second year to the 49ers for a 2 and a 4 after he sat the bench for two years? (Side note #1: I forgot the Raiders traded Gruden to the Bucs for two 1s and two 2s. Looked crazy at the time but it worked out) 2. Cassell was traded from Pats to KC for a 2nd after one 11 win season. JA has had two decent seasons and a playoff appearance. (I cant lie though, seeing this throws a bit of a wrench in my two 1s theory I started with). 3. Chargers trade #1 overall to Falcons for #5 overall, a 3rd and a 5th to select Mike Vick #1 overall. I'm leaning towards Herschel Walker to the Vikings, but I think I HAVE to go with the Vick trade as my general value because the skeptics were saying almost the same things about Vick as they say about JA. The only risks involved that hurt JA's trade value are similar, big arm but inaccurate and not a traditional QB. (Side note #2: None of this has even a slight chance of ever happening.)

 

To conclude my essay, i'm going with Steelers and Jags duking it out with the Pats and Raiders inquiring. I say Bills end up with Ben plus an early 2nd a 3 and a 3rd the following year, or Jags first second and a third next year, or David Carr a second a 5th and a second next year. Pats are out because I would simply die on the spot. In any of those scenarios, Josh wins at least 6 Superbowls ,ends up in a gold jacket, and we cry and suck for 20 more years. The End 

Edited July 1, 2020 by Madd Charlie

[JMF2006]

On 6/29/2020 at 11:46 AM, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

Do you know how many posts I write out and then discard, as opposed to posting on here?  Cathartic, yet not embarrassing.  ?

 

Saved myself the ban stick plenty of times by self censoring

[Mr. WEO]

9 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I didn’t compare them as if Josh should have been MVP.  I said it’s stupid to credit other dual threats with their dual threat ability and ignore Josh’s.  Josh had 30 TDS, that’s nothing to mock.  And in his 2nd year, with 9 new starters, tiny WRs, several scrub WRs, and ancient RB and a roomie RB.  
 

He would fetch a LOT if he was traded.  Period.  Rosen is trash, was given up on after one season, and still got a 2nd.  Josh would go for more than just one first round pick.  

 

He would not get 2 1st rounders.  No chance.

 

Most teams who are trading that kind of capital for a franchise QB I bet are not necessarily focusing on how many rushing TDs he will bring to the Offense.  They know the fate of most running QBs in the league.  They would look a Allen and say: "he really doesn't need to run so much.  He needs to know where his targets are and hit them". If he has good legs then sure that's a bonus. I wasn't mocking 30 TDs.  I was pointing out that he had 14 fewer TDs than another QB with no WRs who most here say is a terrible passer.

 

9 hours ago, CorkScrewHill said:

1) I am glad I do not disappoint you Mr. Weo .. my life hinges on your acceptance of me. This truly made my week. Truly you are too kind.

2) I spot articles that interest me and yes I tend to lean toward more hopeful, but I am just a positive guy. Note 1: I am pleased that there are cynics such as yourself to keep me grounded in my unwarranted euphoria. Note 2: I do not think that Josh has arrived and I think there is a decent chance he never gets to where we need him to be to get us into Super Bowl contention on a regular basis, but I also think there have been plenty of positive signs including leadership (the team clearly rallies around him), toughness, progress in eliminating interceptions (2 in the last 11 games last year), accuracy in the intermediate throws (this was a weakness in his rookie year and he was near the top in this category in 2019), and his clear desire to get better to name some.

3) I get there is plenty to work on - he takes too many sacks against the best defenses; he fumbles too much; he lacks touch (everything is a fastball) which I think contributes to the large drop numbers from his receivers; he tries to take things that aren't there (e.g., the lateral from hell); and the deep ball.

 

As for the 38 TDs ... adding his rushing TDs to his passing TDs for 2019 he would finish 6th among all quarterbacks and unless they changed the rules and award extra points for passing TDs ... I am not certain that I or you should care how they are achieved, but as a stat purist maybe you have some insights into why being 6th overall is not positive progress.

 

So while you don't think he has answered many of the unknowns .. I do for the reasons stated above, and as referenced above I am still not certain he is the long term answer but I have hope that he is based on what I have seen.

 

Also if my positive posts offend you, please feel free to avoid them in the future. I would hate to be the cause of frustration on your part.

 

Every GM and HC is looking for a primary passer.  And Allen is a good athlete, but he is not the runner that Jackson is, not by a mile. And it's a lot easier for a D to shut down a running QB than a great passer.

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

3 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

He would not get 2 1st rounders.  No chance.

 

Most teams who are trading that kind of capital for a franchise QB I bet are not necessarily focusing on how many rushing TDs he will bring to the Offense.  They know the fate of most running QBs in the league.  They would look a Allen and say: "he really doesn't need to run so much.  He needs to know where his targets are and hit them". If he has good legs then sure that's a bonus. I wasn't mocking 30 TDs.  I was pointing out that he had 14 fewer TDs than another QB with no WRs who most here say is a terrible passer.

 

 

Every GM and HC is looking for a primary passer.  And Allen is a good athlete, but he is not the runner that Jackson is, not by a mile. And it's a lot easier for a D to shut down a running QB than a great passer.

 

 

First off, I said more than just one first round pick, doenst mean it’s additional firsts.  Could be a first and a second, etc.

 

But he very well could fetch 2 firsts.

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

First off, I said more than just one first round pick, doenst mean it’s additional firsts.  Could be a first and a second, etc.

 

But he very well could fetch 2 firsts.

 

The OP said 2 firsts.  Now you have as well...

 

No chance. Not right now.  Who was the last top 10 QB traded after 2 years for 2 first round picks?  Mahomes is probably the only one in the NFL who would have gotten that bounty after 2 seasons--and his second season was light years beyond Josh's.

[Alphadawg7]

5 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

The OP said 2 firsts.  Now you have as well...

 

No chance. Not right now.  Who was the last top 10 QB traded after 2 years for 2 first round picks?  Mahomes is probably the only one in the NFL who would have gotten that bounty after 2 seasons--and his second season was light years beyond Josh's.

 

Are you serious?  SCRUB QB's because of ONE game have been traded for First round picks.  Ever hear of Rob Johnson?  

 

What about other guys getting first rounders despite being scrubs like Rick Mirer?  Craig Erickson?  Jeff George?  Sam Bradford?  Steve Walsh?  Chris Chandler?  Kelly Stoufer?  Richard Todd?  I mean I could go on and on.  

 

Even Brett Farve before ever playing a regular season snap was traded for a first despite not being a first round pick the year before.  Yes he is a HOF now, but he wasn't then, he was a guy with off field question marks who wasn't even a first round pick but still traded for a first before he proved he was worth it.  

 

Now look around the league at HUGE contracts given to UNPROVEN QB's all the time.  Kap, Tannehill (in Miami), etc who all got paid huge deals despite not proving they were really worth it yet, just on potential upside ONLY.  

 

Bottom line, teams will pay for the chance to hit on a QB.  Does it mean every GM in the league would give multiple picks, or even multiple firsts for Josh Allen.  NO.  But I am saying its a hell of a lot more likely there are some teams who not only would want him, but COVET him.  And I can 100% tell you with 100% certainly that Brandon Beane would NOT trade Allen right now for 2 first rounders.  So you already know at least ONE team believes he is worth that, and there are plenty of other GM's who have gushed about Allen too.  

 

Sorry, you not being sold on Allens value is more than OK.  But you are delusional if you think there are GMs out there who don't think more of him than you do or that they wouldn't pay a premium to get him coming off a 30TD season with many WHOA moments.  Most people who know football see the immense potential this kid has, the media and some fans may not be there all the way yet, but people who know football mostly are very high on this kid.  

[Mr. WEO]

4 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Are you serious?  SCRUB QB's because of ONE game have been traded for First round picks.  Ever hear of Rob Johnson?  

 

What about other guys getting first rounders despite being scrubs like Rick Mirer?  Craig Erickson?  Jeff George?  Sam Bradford?  Steve Walsh?  Chris Chandler?  Kelly Stoufer?  Richard Todd?  I mean I could go on and on.  

 

Even Brett Farve before ever playing a regular season snap was traded for a first despite not being a first round pick the year before.  Yes he is a HOF now, but he wasn't then, he was a guy with off field question marks who wasn't even a first round pick but still traded for a first before he proved he was worth it.  

 

Now look around the league at HUGE contracts given to UNPROVEN QB's all the time.  Kap, Tannehill (in Miami), etc who all got paid huge deals despite not proving they were really worth it yet, just on potential upside ONLY.  

 

Bottom line, teams will pay for the chance to hit on a QB.  Does it mean every GM in the league would give multiple picks, or even multiple firsts for Josh Allen.  NO.  But I am saying its a hell of a lot more likely there are some teams who not only would want him, but COVET him.  And I can 100% tell you with 100% certainly that Brandon Beane would NOT trade Allen right now for 2 first rounders.  So you already know at least ONE team believes he is worth that, and there are plenty of other GM's who have gushed about Allen too.  

 

Sorry, you not being sold on Allens value is more than OK.  But you are delusional if you think there are GMs out there who don't think more of him than you do or that they wouldn't pay a premium to get him coming off a 30TD season with many WHOA moments.  Most people who know football see the immense potential this kid has, the media and some fans may not be there all the way yet, but people who know football mostly are very high on this kid.  

 

You could go on and on but they didn't get 2 first round picks for the guys you listed, so I'm not sure why you would go on and on....we are talking about 2 firsts.  If you want to talk about something else, go yell at someone else.

 

Beane would not trade Allen that's right.  He knows that the 1st round picks would likely be low enough not to match value for what they invested.  Teams that are going to deal multiple 1st round picks in next year's draft will be doing so to  move up to get Lawrence.