Does the NFL have a bubble plan? Covid rising

[Mikie2times]

19 hours ago, Happy said:

 

My guess would be zero.  One would be too many and I doubt the NFL or NFLPA wants to deal with it, be it player, coach, official, and on.

 

While the NFL is entertainment for most it's employment for some. Lots of employees were forced to come back or never left environments that made them more susceptible to infection. At that point the employee can make a not so easy decision on what they think is best for them,  remaining at that company or leaving. It's on each player, coach, and team member to decide whats best for them. My bet is nearly 100% of the NFL would participate in a season. If a person does not wish to participate they don't have to.  

 

If that's the case then I guess the question becomes does the NFL have some type of moral responsibility to protect people who aren't requesting protection?         

[Happy]

27 minutes ago, KzooMike said:

 

While the NFL is entertainment for most it's employment for some. Lots of employees were forced to come back or never left environments that made them more susceptible to infection. At that point the employee can make a not so easy decision on what they think is best for them,  remaining at that company or leaving. It's on each player, coach, and team member to decide whats best for them. My bet is nearly 100% of the NFL would participate in a season. If a person does not wish to participate they don't have to.  

 

If that's the case then I guess the question becomes does the NFL have some type of moral responsibility to protect people who aren't requesting protection?         

 

That is a good question, which I'm not sure of the answer.  I am confident that the NFL does not want a lawsuit.  This will be interesting.

[Rochesterfan]

6 hours ago, SCBills said:

I spend my time in both Atlanta and South Carolina.. I honestly have zero issue with how either state has handled this.   Businesses haven’t been too hurt, in comparison to the rest of the country, and yea - we have increasing cases - but that was never the goal (to stop COVID)... The goal was to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed, and that’s not happening.  
 

People who want to point the finger at states over increasing cases seem to be engaged in a red state/blue state food fight.   I prefer to look at this rationally... Is the death rate down? Yes.  Are hospitals overwhelmed? No.  Until that changes, I’m of the mindset that we need to live our lives the best we can.   
 

As far as NY goes, I’d prefer to not look at the epicenter of the outbreak in America as any type of role model.   

As far as masks go... I’ll agree that people need to get over it and just wear one in crowds.  Even if you don’t believe they do anything, just go buy one with a Bills logo and rock it as sports gear or something. 

 

 

 

You are correct the goal was spread out the virus and prevent the overwhelming of hospitals and allow people to get the correct PPE.  The issue is places like Texas, Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina - even with closing the states - rushed to re-open and yes it helped some business, but hospitals are starting to get very overwhelmed.  The death rate is down as there are better treatments and techniques, but length of stay - especially for ICU patients is very long.  The hospitalizations and death rates also lag about 2 weeks behind the the infection rate - so as the infection rate rises - in 2 weeks we start to see the increase in severe hospitalizations.

 

For South Carolina - looking at the national statistical data and trends - the hospitals are saying they have room and will hit 100% capacity within the next 2-3 weeks, but they have under 3 days room for ICU patients already.  With currently almost 900 people in ICU units and a capacity between 1000 and 1500 depending upon if they want to take away from other beds - they are sitting very close to 90% capacity.  The projections based upon the current infection rate is that by next week they will need over 2100 ICU beds to handle these patients - 40% more beds than their maximum rate right now.  

 

Georgia is in even worse shape as numbers are still rising and they are already at 100% ICU capacity and numbers are rising.

 

Texas and Florida recognized this very late and they have started to reclose things like bars and stop other things from opening and cut back on Restaurants levels and even gatherings outside.  Beaches are being closed - especially with July 4th coming up - that is a sign of exactly how bad it is.  This is creating huge issues as things re-hired and now are laying people off.  They had to restop elective surgeries because they need more hospital beds to creat an increase in ICU space.  The issue is exactly what we are concerned about with the players.  Bars were packed with "healthy" asymptomatic people - many in a younger age bracket and we are starting to see them get sick and their extended families get sick.  We are also seeing it sweep across college areas before the classes even start.  The Clemson kids were talking about "college bars" off campus being packed as people had not gone out and now many are getting sick.  The issue is that they are not alone because they do not feel sick - they go shopping, to restaurants, work-outs/gyms and they pass it to others that may not be near as young or healthy.  Therefore we are still seeing huge rises in hospitalizations and ICU visits.

 

If things do not start to get under control - they are going to need to put more and more restrictions in these places and to bring this back to Football - With higher infection levels - more and more players and their family (and their extended families (elderly parents etc.) are going to get infected).  The NBA is going to try a bubble approach, but they have had a number of players refuse to play because they do not want to be away from their family.  MLB is trying to control with testing, but there are a lot of holes - especially with team travel and the players being able to be with their family at home.  They are expecting a continuation of positives and having to isolate and self quarantine to protect teams.  You can do that in MLB where for the most part 1-2 players matter very little.  The NFL is going to struggle because they can not create a tight bubble and if players in Miami (for example) live at home with their family - every time their wife/kids or cleaning lady/cook/etc. is out there is a higher risk that they get exposed and their is an increased risk they come in pre-symptomatic and spread it.  

 

   

 

 

 

 

[BillsFan4]

22 hours ago, SCBills said:

I spend my time in both Atlanta and South Carolina.. I honestly have zero issue with how either state has handled this.   Businesses haven’t been too hurt, in comparison to the rest of the country, and yea - we have increasing cases - but that was never the goal (to stop COVID)... The goal was to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed, and that’s not happening.  
 

People who want to point the finger at states over increasing cases seem to be engaged in a red state/blue state food fight.   I prefer to look at this rationally... Is the death rate down? Yes.  Are hospitals overwhelmed? No.  Until that changes, I’m of the mindset that we need to live our lives the best we can.   
 

As far as NY goes, I’d prefer to not look at the epicenter of the outbreak in America as any type of role model.   

As far as masks go... I’ll agree that people need to get over it and just wear one in crowds.  Even if you don’t believe they do anything, just go buy one with a Bills logo and rock it as sports gear or something. 

 

My point on NY wasn’t how they first developed their outbreak. It was on how they’ve handled it since. I think NY shows that if you follow the guidelines you can slow the spread of this virus and start reopening safely, without massive covid spikes.
And Personally, I think that makes it even more impressive that NY had the worst outbreak (so far, anyway) and now have the virus under control better than many states that dealt with much smaller outbreaks, and/or had much more time to prepare for this virus.

 

NY was the canary in the coal mine. They made some mistakes, especially in the beginning, but they’ve also done a lot right since then. Shouldn’t we learn from what they’ve done right? And learn from the mistakes they made, not repeat them? That other states saw what NY went through and still chose to make the same mistakes seems inexcusable to me. 
 

Also, The reason NY was the first big epicenter definitely involved mistakes made on their part. But it also involved a lot of factors out of NY state’s control that played just as big a role in the spread of this virus (if not bigger). Much had to do with federal policy (especially at airports), how densely populated NY is, how many people travel there from out of state every day (40k+), etc. They didn’t even know they had a big outbreak until their hospitals started getting overwhelmed and they started being able to widely test (and it wasn’t NY’s fault they couldn’t test). It’s not like they knew they had large covid outbreaks and chose to reopen/stay open anyway...

 

Look at NY’s positive case graph below. I think that’s pretty impressive considering the size of their outbreak.

 

 

I also don’t think the only goal is to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed (especially if we want sports to have a chance at playing out their seasons this year). Just keeping hospitals from being overwhelmed seems like a pretty low bar to me.
That was a big reason for the shut downs, and yes that is part of the goal. But IMO the main goal should be to suppress the spread of this virus so we stop losing so many lives on a daily/weekly/monthly basis, and so we can safely reopen, safely stay open and our economy can truly start to rebound. We also don’t want our hospitals to ever approach overwhelmed status where they have to enter crisis care modes (like what is happening again now in some places (Texas, Arizona, what happened earlier in NY, MI, MA, etc)). Some of these states seeing large spikes are still (at least) weeks away from their peaks. Positive cases are still trending up. Large spikes/outbreaks lead to overwhelmed hospitals and more shut downs.

I don’t see where our economy will truly come back in full with large hotspots all around the country and cases climbing in many states. IMO our economy’s rebound requires that we suppress the spread of this virus.

 

Edited June 28, 2020 by BillsFan4

[Gordio]

On 6/27/2020 at 7:02 PM, Rochesterfan said:

 

 

You are correct the goal was spread out the virus and prevent the overwhelming of hospitals and allow people to get the correct PPE.  The issue is places like Texas, Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina - even with closing the states - rushed to re-open and yes it helped some business, but hospitals are starting to get very overwhelmed.  The death rate is down as there are better treatments and techniques, but length of stay - especially for ICU patients is very long.  The hospitalizations and death rates also lag about 2 weeks behind the the infection rate - so as the infection rate rises - in 2 weeks we start to see the increase in severe hospitalizations.

 

For South Carolina - looking at the national statistical data and trends - the hospitals are saying they have room and will hit 100% capacity within the next 2-3 weeks, but they have under 3 days room for ICU patients already.  With currently almost 900 people in ICU units and a capacity between 1000 and 1500 depending upon if they want to take away from other beds - they are sitting very close to 90% capacity.  The projections based upon the current infection rate is that by next week they will need over 2100 ICU beds to handle these patients - 40% more beds than their maximum rate right now.  

 

Georgia is in even worse shape as numbers are still rising and they are already at 100% ICU capacity and numbers are rising.

 

Texas and Florida recognized this very late and they have started to reclose things like bars and stop other things from opening and cut back on Restaurants levels and even gatherings outside.  Beaches are being closed - especially with July 4th coming up - that is a sign of exactly how bad it is.  This is creating huge issues as things re-hired and now are laying people off.  They had to restop elective surgeries because they need more hospital beds to creat an increase in ICU space.  The issue is exactly what we are concerned about with the players.  Bars were packed with "healthy" asymptomatic people - many in a younger age bracket and we are starting to see them get sick and their extended families get sick.  We are also seeing it sweep across college areas before the classes even start.  The Clemson kids were talking about "college bars" off campus being packed as people had not gone out and now many are getting sick.  The issue is that they are not alone because they do not feel sick - they go shopping, to restaurants, work-outs/gyms and they pass it to others that may not be near as young or healthy.  Therefore we are still seeing huge rises in hospitalizations and ICU visits.

 

If things do not start to get under control - they are going to need to put more and more restrictions in these places and to bring this back to Football - With higher infection levels - more and more players and their family (and their extended families (elderly parents etc.) are going to get infected).  The NBA is going to try a bubble approach, but they have had a number of players refuse to play because they do not want to be away from their family.  MLB is trying to control with testing, but there are a lot of holes - especially with team travel and the players being able to be with their family at home.  They are expecting a continuation of positives and having to isolate and self quarantine to protect teams.  You can do that in MLB where for the most part 1-2 players matter very little.  The NFL is going to struggle because they can not create a tight bubble and if players in Miami (for example) live at home with their family - every time their wife/kids or cleaning lady/cook/etc. is out there is a higher risk that they get exposed and their is an increased risk they come in pre-symptomatic and spread it.  

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

From this post you seem pretty knowledgeable about this subject.  There was a doctor in Houston on the news the other day said they were at near 100% capacity in the area but stated we were at 95% capacity this time last year.  I don't know, I just thought that was interesting.  

[Rochesterfan]

47 minutes ago, Gordio said:

 

 

From this post you seem pretty knowledgeable about this subject.  There was a doctor in Houston on the news the other day said they were at near 100% capacity in the area but stated we were at 95% capacity this time last year.  I don't know, I just thought that was interesting.  

 

I find this fascinating because I spend way to much time with our Chief Medical Officer on these several times a week national calls discussing exactly that with various state health department leaders and other chief medical officer and techniques to free up space and increase better outcomes on things learned and seen.  Typically due to costs - you want your ICU to be at a fuller capacity, but many of these Texas cities by cutting elective surgery and adjusting bed and floor designation have increased their ICU capacity by 1/4 to 1/3 and they are nearing new capacity.  
 

They were sounding alarms 2 weeks ago trying to get the governor to implement these changes and more before the hospitalization started to rise dramatically.  Much like as a nation we missed our window to contain by about 1 month with a lack of testing and restrictions- Texas, Florida, and Arizona are acting about 2 weeks to late.  It will help, but the restrictions now will not see major impacts for 2 weeks or more.  
 

The problem tends to be that these patients need/must spend a longer time in an ICU area when they are that sick - than typical patients - so you begin to see an increase in numbers and you turn them around slower.  Hopefully with the lessons learned - they can see better outcomes like other places saw as we learned more.

 

What worries me is reports that hospitals are being asked to no longer discuss ICU availability by various state leaders - we will see how that goes for ensuring information is correctly shared.

 

The impact on football remains to be seen - football still has time - the biggest thing is time to help as long as they have a plan.

Edited June 29, 2020 by Rochesterfan

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

NFL should follow Clemson's plan, already 37 players have tested positive.  Get it all out of the way now by the time training camp starts!

[Greg S]

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/06/29/jets-to-let-season-ticket-holders-skip-2020/

 

The Jets are giving their season ticket holders a pass for 2020.

[dakrider]

Unless things get much better in next 4 weeks, I think preseason games could be fanless and who knows after that. 

[BillsCuse]

I hate to say it, but I think this season is in big trouble.  If a player gets it, he's going to be forced to quarantine.  What if it's multiple players on a team or several teams?  What if it's a QB and his entire O'line or half the teams defense?  It'll screw up the season big time.  I have a bad feeling the season will start, but won't end.  Hope I'm wrong

[Westside Madness]

I will set my expectations on responses accordingly. The 2020 NFL season is not likely to start. Even if it does, it is likely to be put on hold and then cancelled shortly thereafter. Training camps haven't even started yet and players from several teams have already become infected. Players are not going to be restricted as far as who they engage with outside of the team. The moment the owners try to make that enforceable, players will refuse to play and the season halts there. Due to that, it is likely that throughout training camp, infections are going to pop up sporadically. Teams will attempt the isolate, quarantine, come back in bit, but that's going to make camp almost impossible to get through.

 

Now, given the above, if one player...one coach...one deflated football gets badly sick, its a wrap. There will be too much risk, players will refuse to play, the players association will have their back and its over.

 

Now you have to look at infection rates across the country and team located in high infection states, citing FL and TX here, there is a higher chance of the players becoming infected (already happened) so there will be cries of inequity vs. states that have a low infection rate and are dealing with less infection. That will stop the season.

 

There have been several situations where patients have tested positive for the virus, gotten better and then tested positive later, in some cases more than a month or so after recovery. This is further supported by studies that are showing that antibody degradation is rather quick. After being sick, you could test negative for antibodies in 2 months. So, the 'let them all get the virus and get better' folks need to step back. It was terrible and irresponsible as a suggestion, but it is likely also pointless.

 

I don't see positive tests as the measure of concern for the pandemic. I mean, it is but not in the ways it matters. I look at new hospitalizations. specifically new hospitalizations vs. discharges and weighed against hospital capacity. Brazil is clear indicator of that and Houston is going to be the next to follow. Death counts will rise dramatically when there are no hospital beds available to support the incoming patients. I am not sure what sort of emergency plan they are working on developing, but I heard they were at 97% capacity in Houston before the last weekend.

 

I want football to happen. I just cant imagine it actually coming to fruition. And honestly, I don't want to watch the game if players, coaches and anyone else start coming down sick in the interest of $$$.

 

And my name isn't Debbie...

 

 

 

[Special K]

The PGA tour has restarted its season two weeks ago with no fans, and I believe three golfers and three caddies have already tested positive in the first two weeks....and this is golf...the most socially-distanced sport possible.

 

I hate to imagine how many players will test positive on a weekly basis if the NFL begins its season.

 

The NBA restart will be a good barometer for how an NFL season might fare, however, I believe the NBA has a much more stringent plan and a "bubble" in place....something that the NFL does not seem to have.

[NickelCity]

I imagine there will be some dramatically paired down version of football that will occur for several weeks before a pause that becomes permanent. Just when the Bills were turning the corner. Classic. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

On 6/23/2020 at 11:12 AM, boater said:

COVID is declining nation wide, not rising. Yes, there are some hot spots like FL and AZ.

 

Daily COVID-19 Deaths in the U.S. Have Fallen Dramatically Since April

Ouch, how wrong you were

11 hours ago, Westside Madness said:

I will set my expectations on responses accordingly. The 2020 NFL season is not likely to start. Even if it does, it is likely to be put on hold and then cancelled shortly thereafter. Training camps haven't even started yet and players from several teams have already become infected. Players are not going to be restricted as far as who they engage with outside of the team. The moment the owners try to make that enforceable, players will refuse to play and the season halts there. Due to that, it is likely that throughout training camp, infections are going to pop up sporadically. Teams will attempt the isolate, quarantine, come back in bit, but that's going to make camp almost impossible to get through.

 

Now, given the above, if one player...one coach...one deflated football gets badly sick, its a wrap. There will be too much risk, players will refuse to play, the players association will have their back and its over.

 

Now you have to look at infection rates across the country and team located in high infection states, citing FL and TX here, there is a higher chance of the players becoming infected (already happened) so there will be cries of inequity vs. states that have a low infection rate and are dealing with less infection. That will stop the season.

 

There have been several situations where patients have tested positive for the virus, gotten better and then tested positive later, in some cases more than a month or so after recovery. This is further supported by studies that are showing that antibody degradation is rather quick. After being sick, you could test negative for antibodies in 2 months. So, the 'let them all get the virus and get better' folks need to step back. It was terrible and irresponsible as a suggestion, but it is likely also pointless.

 

I don't see positive tests as the measure of concern for the pandemic. I mean, it is but not in the ways it matters. I look at new hospitalizations. specifically new hospitalizations vs. discharges and weighed against hospital capacity. Brazil is clear indicator of that and Houston is going to be the next to follow. Death counts will rise dramatically when there are no hospital beds available to support the incoming patients. I am not sure what sort of emergency plan they are working on developing, but I heard they were at 97% capacity in Houston before the last weekend.

 

I want football to happen. I just cant imagine it actually coming to fruition. And honestly, I don't want to watch the game if players, coaches and anyone else start coming down sick in the interest of $$$.

 

And my name isn't Debbie...

 

 

 

Career window for NFL guys is too short for them to opt out of playing. That said there is no way NFL will play this year unless they have a vaccine by Sept which is not going to happen. The US is in the worst shape of any country. They would be better off playing all their games in Europe, but we cant even travel their now.

[BillsCuse]

7 hours ago, NickelCity said:

I imagine there will be some dramatically paired down version of football that will occur for several weeks before a pause that becomes permanent. Just when the Bills were turning the corner. Classic. 

Yup.  After 20+ long years of waiting for a legit team and this sh!t happens.  I swear they are cursed.  My wife thinks I'm miserable enough when they lose, wait until she sees me if they cancel the season

[Mango]

53 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Ouch, how wrong you were

Career window for NFL guys is too short for them to opt out of playing. That said there is no way NFL will play this year unless they have a vaccine by Sept which is not going to happen. The US is in the worst shape of any country. They would be better off playing all their games in Europe, but we cant even travel their now.

 

I am mostly joking here. Just treat it like March Madness, but instead of traveling weekly, you stay in a region/city with a few stadiums and low covid cases. Rip through 4 games in a row on the same 2 fields, 2 days per week. Treat it like a weird crossover with the Truman Show and Bio Dome. Then the entire league goes home to live in their NFL bubble village in one location. 

[Mrbojanglezs]

11 hours ago, Special K said:

The PGA tour has restarted its season two weeks ago with no fans, and I believe three golfers and three caddies have already tested positive in the first two weeks....and this is golf...the most socially-distanced sport possible.

 

I hate to imagine how many players will test positive on a weekly basis if the NFL begins its season.

 

The NBA restart will be a good barometer for how an NFL season might fare, however, I believe the NBA has a much more stringent plan and a "bubble" in place....something that the NFL does not seem to have.

 

Its probably more likely that those people got COVID from somewhere off the golf course

 

 

Players will get COVID-19, inevitable, but that doesn't mean they can't play. The goal here is not "no player test positive the whole year", impossible. The key to being able to play the season is frequent testing and isolation. I heard they are planning on doing mouth swabs daily and nasal tests 3x a week. Once a player tests positive they go into isolation. That will help prevent the spread, plus with masking when they are inside in close proximity.

 

If they are testing all the players, coaches, refs before the games, its unlikely that it will spread during a game. What makes this virus tough is the possibility of asymptomatic spread, but if they are testing frequently that mitigates that risk.

 

My guess is the NFL will allow positive test players in isolation to be exempt from the 53 man roster until they test negative

Edited July 1, 2020 by Mrbojanglezs

[BullBuchanan]

On 6/23/2020 at 1:12 PM, boater said:

COVID is declining nation wide, not rising. Yes, there are some hot spots like FL and AZ.

 

Daily COVID-19 Deaths in the U.S. Have Fallen Dramatically Since April

And now a week later it's rising in 36 states and we just set a new all time one day high. Applebees open != virus over.

[FieldGeneral]

NBA has the best plan of all the leagues. MLB is pretty bad considering it's the closest besides the NBA/NHL in returning. Players can come and go like normal. Sure they're tested, but there are so many opportunities to get infected. 

[Jauronimo]

On 6/29/2020 at 9:10 AM, Gordio said:

 

 

From this post you seem pretty knowledgeable about this subject.  There was a doctor in Houston on the news the other day said they were at near 100% capacity in the area but stated we were at 95% capacity this time last year.  I don't know, I just thought that was interesting.  

It is interesting.  My understanding is ICUs operate around 80% of capacity most of the year.  So a sudden shock to the medical system, like a pandemic, can easily push our healthcare system to a point of overload.  As in, inability to treat new patients.