The weakness of Coach McD

[Happy]

1 hour ago, folz said:

I will agree that there were some moments that I wish they had gone for the jugular last year. But, you also have to take into account the offense itself and McD's confidence in them connecting on certain plays or down and distance. For instance, in 2017, we would have never made the playoffs if he let that offense wing it. Relying on his defense and playing conservatively on offense is actually what got that team to the post season. And even last year, we were much better, but the offense still struggled mightily in some games. It is kind of like having a kicker that you know is money from inside 45, but struggles over that. Well, if it's fourth down and a FG try would be from 51, you probably go for it on fourth rather than try the FG because you are not confident in your kicker.

 

Hopefully this year the offense will take off and McD will have the confidence in them to sling it around, go for it, and not play too conservatively. But outside of maybe one or two games, I think he has managed games pretty well in that regard thus far.

 

Tyrod Taylor was the QB and Rick Dennison was the OC in 2017; there was zero chance of gun slinging.  They went 9-7 that year because that is pretty much the kind of team they were...slightly above average.  They made the playoffs out of pure luck; no Dalton to Boyd miracle play, no playoffs.

[folz]

32 minutes ago, Happy said:

 

Tyrod Taylor was the QB and Rick Dennison was the OC in 2017; there was zero chance of gun slinging.  They went 9-7 that year because that is pretty much the kind of team they were...slightly above average.  They made the playoffs out of pure luck; no Dalton to Boyd miracle play, no playoffs.

 

Totally agree. But, if he didn't play conservatively in 2017, they wouldn't have even had those 9 wins for that miracle to even be a possibility.

 

I'm just saying maybe he still wasn't completely confident in the offense last year in every situation, despite them being a far superior offense to the 2017 and 2018 versions.

 

But, then again, maybe because of how he had to play (conservatively) with the lack of talent on the 2017 and 2018 teams, he was still a little gun shy (or in a bit of a rut) last year, and like most of you have said, he now needs to learn to loosen those reigns a bit because his players can handle it. And maybe that will partly come from him being more confident in his offense this year as well.

[ganesh]

10 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

And plenty of teams beat elite teams by running when they have the lead and the ball late in the game. You just have to do it successfully and probably have the rest of your team stand up as well.

 

Derrick Henry and the Titans 

[stuvian]

The OP needs a reality check. We beat powder puff teams to make the playoffs. We hit on zero long passing plays for most if not all of the season. 

 

If anything, McD has rescued us from embarrassment and obscurity.

[BillsVet]

11 hours ago, Hebert19 said:

I think his biggest weakness is loyalty.  He is getting better at game management side.  But he is loyal to a fault to players...and it hurts us from time to time. 

 

When McD took the job he had 15+ seasons of NFL experience.  New HC's should not be learning on the job, but building on what they've learned as position coaches and coordinators (if applicable).  There shouldn't be a learning curve.  

[Richard Noggin]

12 hours ago, Doc said:

I get the strategy with running 3 times after the turnover.  Hopefully you at least get into FG range, take time off the clock, and make it a 3 score game.  At worst punt and pin them deep.  They didn't keep running every play after that.

But wasn't THAT the point in the game where championship teams historically seem to go for the jugular (I don't have data)? THAT specific drive, post-turnover? Usually the very next play, even? Capitalize on the sudden change and put the damned game away, if you can. THEN go conservative. That's how my armchair philosophy of game management has evolved watching football VERY closely for 3 or 4 decades. I'll bet most see it similarly. It's a cliche, to go play-action, deep shot on the 1st or 2nd play following a turnover in neutral or plus territory, but it's one that persists. 

 

It's when momentum feels real. Sudden swings seem to affect players and/or coaches at times. Defenses seem susceptible to the big or chunk play following a turnover. But football is all so complex and inter-reliant, and witness reliability so limited, it's difficult to know if our perceptions are accurate without data/evidence. 

 

 

 

 

[Richard Noggin]

6 hours ago, mushypeaches said:

The success of the past 3 season has been as much about not tripping over our own d*cks, as it has been about playing well enough to win. 

 

This quote needs to be repeated. Doesn't matter if you like McD's coaching or not. Strong prose here.

[Sherlock Holmes]

Hasn't convinced McBeane yet about how badly we need McCaffrey. Also hasn't promoted Kuechly to our staff and brought him out of retirement...

[eball]

One of the great things about McD is that he is consistently trying to improve himself.  I love it that fans “know” he is conservative or that he can’t/won’t adapt.  He has had a raw QB and questionable skill on the offensive side of ball.  This season will be his first as HC with the pieces in place to field an offense that should be in the top half of the league.

 

There are absolutely things he can get better at, but he’s not stupid and he isn’t trying to just “win with defense” as some suggest.  The Bills were one of the most aggressive teams on 4th down, for example.  How does that mesh with the conservative mindset?

 

Playcalling on offense is perhaps the easiest thing to criticize in all of sports.  Everybody would have done something differently.  When the calls work nobody says boo, but when there’s a 3-and-out all hell breaks loose.  These guys aren’t perfect and they make decisions you look back at and say “huh?”  DiMarco running a post comes to mind, or sending Gore into the line when he clearly didn’t have it any more.  But by and large, they do things with a plan and not haphazardly.

 

I don’t believe McD is conservative; I think he is weighing the circumstances and going with what he believes are his team’s strengths.  There was no reason to be “aggressive” in Pittsburgh late in the game with a lead against one of the best defenses in football, with a third-stringer playing QB for the other team.

 

This season the Bills appear to have the chance to create a lot of mismatches on offense.  I’m looking forward to seeing McD’s continued development in calling a game.

[Greg S]

3 minutes ago, eball said:

One of the great things about McD is that he is consistently trying to improve himself.  I love it that fans “know” he is conservative or that he can’t/won’t adapt.  He has had a raw QB and questionable skill on the offensive side of ball.  This season will be his first as HC with the pieces in place to field an offense that should be in the top half of the league.

 

There are absolutely things he can get better at, but he’s not stupid and he isn’t trying to just “win with defense” as some suggest.  The Bills were one of the most aggressive teams on 4th down, for example.  How does that mesh with the conservative mindset?

 

Playcalling on offense is perhaps the easiest thing to criticize in all of sports.  Everybody would have done something differently.  When the calls work nobody says boo, but when there’s a 3-and-out all hell breaks loose.  These guys aren’t perfect and they make decisions you look back at and say “huh?”  DiMarco running a post comes to mind, or sending Gore into the line when he clearly didn’t have it any more.  But by and large, they do things with a plan and not haphazardly.

 

I don’t believe McD is conservative; I think he is weighing the circumstances and going with what he believes are his team’s strengths.  There was no reason to be “aggressive” in Pittsburgh late in the game with a lead against one of the best defenses in football, with a third-stringer playing QB for the other team.

 

This season the Bills appear to have the chance to create a lot of mismatches on offense.  I’m looking forward to seeing McD’s continued development in calling a game.

 

Yup. People forget that when Allen was drafted he was supposed to sit for a year as all of the "experts" thought he had the most upside but wasn't ready to start. The Bills screwed up the QB situation with Peterman/McCarron so badly that Allen was thrown out there with an offense that had very little talent. Last year Allen improved with experience and some better weapons Brown, Beasley, Singletary. This is the year (assuming we have one) where I think the Bills offense can now go out there and get "THAT SCORE". The one that puts a game away or rallies for a comeback win in a big spot on a more consistent basis. Plus with Allen in year 3 he should be much more comfortable running the offense. Diggs is a legit #1 which means Brown and Beasley slot in at the 2nd and 3rd spots so they should produce more not having to go up against the other teams top DB's. Combine that with Singletary and the Bills offense should do some damage now.

[loveorhatembillsfan4life]

8 hours ago, BillsVet said:

 

When McD took the job he had 15+ seasons of NFL experience.  New HC's should not be learning on the job, but building on what they've learned as position coaches and coordinators (if applicable).  There shouldn't be a learning curve.  

Not sure I agree. Not all coordinators become solid head coaches. And some have had amazing pedigrees . then it turns out they are better staying in their positional roles because they can’t lead, or adapt to changing situations. Running a whole program  I’m sure is a whole  different league than being responsible for one side of the field.

 

 Mcd has the locker room, they play for him and I bet you wouldn’t find one Bill on this roster who wouldn’t step up for the coach.

 

He gained a lot of respect for doing more with what most nfl analysts agreed was a joke of a roster two years ago.
 

It’s important for him to continue to grow as much as the players and there is nothing wrong with that, Mcd will be the first to hold himself accountable, that’s his DNA. I’d be shocked if he doesn’t take something away from Houston in areas he could have personally done better. 

 

Where he should and will lend his voice is defense and to no surprise our defense is solid each and every year.
 

I’m not saying we give him  a pass on offense. I think when he first was hired here, his mantra was to run the ball, play good d. That doesn’t really fly today unless you have Derrick Henry. We need to score points and he knows that. I see the potential with Dabol, his offense is complex, creative, matchups .. it’s plenty ready to score a lot of points. 
 

I think at this point we can mostly all agree that the pieces are in place.  We have expectations, we should not be going backwards at this point. So now the team results will be magnified in a clear way.
 

If there is an area that is holding us back whether it’s coaching , quarterback play it will be in plain sight.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

16 hours ago, Another Fan said:

Believe me I hear what you’re saying.   
 

At the same time though I’m just not sure any Bills fan can really be too hard on Sean.   I mean it was a team that hadn’t made the playoffs in 17 years and he was able to

accomplish that twice in his first three seasons.  All the while seemingly changing the culture around the team where I felt prior regimes just tweaked things here or there.

 

There’s ways he can improve no doubt but you’d have to say he’s been solid overall so far no?   Btw, Eagles were a playoff team last year 

Good catch on the Eagles. I recall they had a losing record at the time they played but they did win the NFC East down the stretch.

He’s 25-25 as HC. So yes he deserves some credit and he has done some good things. But my point was it’s still too early to tell if he will get this team a championship.

 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

9 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

But wasn't THAT the point in the game where championship teams historically seem to go for the jugular (I don't have data)? THAT specific drive, post-turnover? Usually the very next play, even? Capitalize on the sudden change and put the damned game away, if you can. THEN go conservative. That's how my armchair philosophy of game management has evolved watching football VERY closely for 3 or 4 decades. I'll bet most see it similarly. It's a cliche, to go play-action, deep shot on the 1st or 2nd play following a turnover in neutral or plus territory, but it's one that persists. 

 

It's when momentum feels real. Sudden swings seem to affect players and/or coaches at times. Defenses seem susceptible to the big or chunk play following a turnover. But football is all so complex and inter-reliant, and witness reliability so limited, it's difficult to know if our perceptions are accurate without data/evidence. 

 

 

 

 

There is nothing wrong with running the ball after a turnover. There is little more demoralizing play in the NFL than having the ball run over your defense and the clock ticking away. Execute.

[Freddie's Dead]

McD's weakness is gameday coaching, period.  Conservative when he should be bold (not going for the throat after a turnover in enemy territory), bold when he should be conservative (4th and 27?  Are you f'ing kidding me?  Not running Motor even once in overtime?).  If he can get his gameday coaching up to his weekday prep coaching, he'd be among the best in the game.

[BillsVet]

1 hour ago, loveorhatembillsfan4life said:

Not sure I agree. Not all coordinators become solid head coaches. And some have had amazing pedigrees . then it turns out they are better staying in their positional roles because they can’t lead, or adapt to changing situations. Running a whole program  I’m sure is a whole  different league than being responsible for one side of the field.

 

 Mcd has the locker room, they play for him and I bet you wouldn’t find one Bill on this roster who wouldn’t step up for the coach.

 

He gained a lot of respect for doing more with what most nfl analysts agreed was a joke of a roster two years ago.
 

It’s important for him to continue to grow as much as the players and there is nothing wrong with that, Mcd will be the first to hold himself accountable, that’s his DNA. I’d be shocked if he doesn’t take something away from Houston in areas he could have personally done better. 

 

Where he should and will lend his voice is defense and to no surprise our defense is solid each and every year.
 

I’m not saying we give him  a pass on offense. I think when he first was hired here, his mantra was to run the ball, play good d. That doesn’t really fly today unless you have Derrick Henry. We need to score points and he knows that. I see the potential with Dabol, his offense is complex, creative, matchups .. it’s plenty ready to score a lot of points. 
 

I think at this point we can mostly all agree that the pieces are in place.  We have expectations, we should not be going backwards at this point. So now the team results will be magnified in a clear way.
 

If there is an area that is holding us back whether it’s coaching , quarterback play it will be in plain sight.

 

There's a significant emphasis at OBD to build culture and keeping people motivated.  Nothing wrong with that approach.

 

It's the strategic decision to focus on defense heavily in years 1-3 of this rebuild that needs to be scrutinized.  Solid defensive teams with an average or slightly below offense do not succeed in the long run during this era of offense.  It's why more than 20 teams have hired offensive minded HC's.   That does not guarantee success, but there's a reason behind that trend.  

 

I suspect McD wanted to live up to the mantra of winning now and later going defense first.  Using this formula, he was able to pull of a 9 win season in 2017 despite being outscored by more 57 points.  This last season the offense struggled to score points and, while some of that is on QB/OC, it's a HC who keeps going conservative at key moments.

 

Regardless, we're going to find out if McD will use the weapons they've acquired on offense or continue to game-plan around that defense and limiting opponents.  If not, as @All_Pro_Bills said, his tenure as a HC will be short and he'll return to being a DC.     

 

 

 

[Thurman#1]

21 hours ago, auburnbillsbacker said:

People always remember the games lost by conservatism but always forget the games won by it.

 

 

Nicely put, and very true.

 

 

14 hours ago, Happy said:

 

Tyrod Taylor was the QB and Rick Dennison was the OC in 2017; there was zero chance of gun slinging.  They went 9-7 that year because that is pretty much the kind of team they were...slightly above average.  They made the playoffs out of pure luck; no Dalton to Boyd miracle play, no playoffs.

 

 

It certainly wasn't "pure" luck. They won 9 games. If they hadn't, they wouldn't have made the playoffs. Yes, some luck was involved, no doubt about that, but by no means was it pure.

Edited June 22, 2020 by Thurman#1

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

10 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

But wasn't THAT the point in the game where championship teams historically seem to go for the jugular (I don't have data)? THAT specific drive, post-turnover? Usually the very next play, even? Capitalize on the sudden change and put the damned game away, if you can. THEN go conservative. That's how my armchair philosophy of game management has evolved watching football VERY closely for 3 or 4 decades. I'll bet most see it similarly. It's a cliche, to go play-action, deep shot on the 1st or 2nd play following a turnover in neutral or plus territory, but it's one that persists. 

 

It's when momentum feels real. Sudden swings seem to affect players and/or coaches at times. Defenses seem susceptible to the big or chunk play following a turnover. But football is all so complex and inter-reliant, and witness reliability so limited, it's difficult to know if our perceptions are accurate without data/evidence. 

 

 

 

 

 

There's always examples to demonstrate that each strategy does or doesn't work.  I say play to your strengths - we are a running team.  But I also don't think going into a heavy 22 personnel look is the way to go about it.  Keep doing what got you there, mckenzie flip plays and jet motion, read-option, etc.  

[Happy]

15 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

It certainly wasn't "pure" luck. They won 9 games. If they hadn't, they wouldn't have made the playoffs. Yes, some luck was involved, no doubt about that, but by no means was it pure.

 

I was referring to the Bengals beating the Ravens (Dalton to Boyd miracle) as pure luck.  Winning nine games was about right for that team.

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, BillsVet said:

 

There's a significant emphasis at OBD to build culture and keeping people motivated.  Nothing wrong with that approach.

 

It's the strategic decision to focus on defense heavily in years 1-3 of this rebuild that needs to be scrutinized.  Solid defensive teams with an average or slightly below offense do not succeed in the long run during this era of offense.  It's why more than 20 teams have hired offensive minded HC's.   That does not guarantee success, but there's a reason behind that trend.  

 

I suspect McD wanted to live up to the mantra of winning now and later going defense first.  Using this formula, he was able to pull of a 9 win season in 2017 despite being outscored by more 57 points.  This last season the offense struggled to score points and, while some of that is on QB/OC, it's a HC who keeps going conservative at key moments.

 

Regardless, we're going to find out if McD will use the weapons they've acquired on offense or continue to game-plan around that defense and limiting opponents.  If not, as @All_Pro_Bills said, his tenure as a HC will be short and he'll return to being a DC.     

 

 

 

The most successful coach of the modern era, Bill Belichick, comes from a defensive background.

 

Agreed that solid defensive teams with an average or slightly below offense don't consistently succeed these days. Thing is, you also say the opposite. If either side of the ball is average or slightly below, you're not going to consistently succeed.

 

The reason more than 20 teams have hired offensive minded HCs is more about group-think and the way NFL trends move in cycles than anything else. And the new hirings this year seem to show that trend slowing.

 

And if anything "needs to be scrutinized" about this regime, it's that they seem to be doing an absolutely terrific job so far.

 

Edited June 22, 2020 by Thurman#1

[BillsVet]

40 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

The most successful coach of the modern era, Bill Belichick, comes from a defensive background.

 

Agreed that solid defensive teams with an average or slightly below offense don't consistently succeed these days. Thing is, you also say the opposite. If either side of the ball is average or slightly below, you're not going to consistently succeed.

 

The reason more than 20 teams have hired offensive minded HCs is more about group-think and the way NFL trends move in cycles than anything else. And the new hirings this year seem to show that trend slowing.

 

And if anything "needs to be scrutinized" about this regime, it's that they seem to be doing an absolutely terrific job so far.

 

I'm constantly amazed at people who bring up Belichick when defensive versus offensive HC hires are discussed.  It's a grand attempt at using the exception to prove the rule, in large part because BB indeed hails from the same side of the ball as McD does. 

 

And yet, BB is the man who, after the 2006 AFC Championship game when NE struggled against the high-octane Colts, recognized the league was changing toward offense.  Gone were the days of Seymour, Vrabel, Bruschi and Harrison leading a defense paired with a conservative offense.  In 2007, it became Brady, Randy Moss, and Wes Welker.  When that ended, it became the 2 TE scheme.

 

Point is, Belichick evolved because he understands the next thing most coaches do not.  He's a NFL savant.  One cannot make that claim about McD, despite his 20+ years in the league.  Where Belichick is brilliant is his ability to set trends that other coaches copy.  Their SB appearances in '14, '16, '17, and '18 were built on teams that could score and weren't dominant defenses.  This occurred because teams do not win with defense anymore, particularly between the 20s.  

 

I see little evidence to suggest McD gets offense, understands offensive talent, and can scheme one to score consistently.  And I think he's hard-headed enough to think he can win without evolving like Belichick did.  We're going to find out now for sure in 2020.