WIDE LEFT Posted June 21, 2020 Posted June 21, 2020 I am a huge fan of Coach McD and believe Bills are lucky to have him. He does almost all the important things right. But there is one area that he needs to improve on, his biggest weakness, game management. Specifically the offensive philosophy when taking a lead in a big game. He goes hyper conservative. The playoff game v Houston for example. Bills with a 16-0 lead, produce a turnover in Houston territory. Great chance to put the game away. What is play call - three straight runs, including a run play on third & 3. Unsuccessful, forced to punt. One great indicator of a too conservative offense is when a team loses a game in which they won the turnover battle. The second New England game is another great example. Bills down early, come roaring back to take a 17-13 lead, and force a 3 & out. Bills get the ball, predictable as the sun rising in the East, run three straight times and punt. You can’t beat elite teams with that mentality. This was another game where Bills win turnover battle, but lose the game. This has been a huge reason why we have been so unsuccessful v Patriots. Going back to Saint Doug, then Rex, and now McD, the same mentality has been employed. Take a lead or tie the game, and the offense goes into a shell. And Belichek knows this, when this situation arises in a game, he loads the front anticipating the run. And the Bills (unsuccessfully) run anyway, giving Brady the ball and the time to win the game. McD needs to change his mentality in order for the Bills to win playoff games. And please, don’t tell me that it’s the OC calling the plays. The head coach has a great amount of input, during the game, as to what TYPE of plays he wants called in various phases of the game. Again, big McD fan here, and he gets almost everything else right, an that’s no small feat. 17 1
Doc Posted June 21, 2020 Posted June 21, 2020 Is it McD or Daboll? And shouldn't they be giving Josh the ability to audible out of a run if they're stacking the box? 8
Dopey Posted June 21, 2020 Posted June 21, 2020 Just now, Doc said: Is it McD or Daboll? And shouldn't they be giving Josh the ability to audible out of a run if they're stacking the box? I think this is the year he gets to. 1
First Round Bust Posted June 21, 2020 Posted June 21, 2020 McD has shown he knows what he knows (an above average D for all 3 years) and that he knows what he doesnt know (a below average O) which I think he has out-sourced to Daboll; point being he wont take over the O-side play calls as he has done on the D side at least once (chargers game second half) ..a big O-side miss was drafting Zay Jones that high and missing and not drafting an NFL MVP in Mahomes at the critical qb position which is a whole debate of it own. As much as I would like to rag on his O-line there are three second rounders in the starting 5 (Dawkins, Ford, Morse) and the guards are the more fungible-replaceable which is a proper cap strategy..flame on comprades 1
Just Joshin' Posted June 21, 2020 Posted June 21, 2020 If Atlanta was more conservative they would be NFL champs. It is easy in retrospect to say yes/no but both approaches can work. Even if a low probability it will sometimes hit. it would be interesting to see a large sample size on the strategies to see the historical results. The problem with football is the amount of variables. What works against one defense may not work against another in same down/distance/field position. 5
whorlnut Posted June 21, 2020 Posted June 21, 2020 My buddy who is a Bears fan came over to watch the playoff game with me. Most fans would be excited about being up 13-0 at the half of an away playoff game. I wasn’t. I told him the Bills would come out completely different and play conservative on offense and put the game in the hands of the defense. That’s exactly what happened. I saw it all year and there was no reason to expect otherwise. I truly think McD gets off on his defense. Haha. I think he wants his offense to do just enough and wants to see his defense close out games. It’s in his DNA. If he wants to be one of the best HCs in the game (and I believe he can be), then he needs to play to win on both sides. This is a lesson I think he learned from that game. We will see... 10
Thurman#1 Posted June 21, 2020 Posted June 21, 2020 (edited) 54 minutes ago, WIDE LEFT said: I am a huge fan of Coach McD and believe Bills are lucky to have him. He does almost all the important things right. But there is one area that he needs to improve on, his biggest weakness, game management. Specifically the offensive philosophy when taking a lead in a big game. He goes hyper conservative. The playoff game v Houston for example. Bills with a 16-0 lead, produce a turnover in Houston territory. Great chance to put the game away. What is play call - three straight runs, including a run play on third & 3. Unsuccessful, forced to punt. One great indicator of a too conservative offense is when a team loses a game in which they won the turnover battle. The second New England game is another great example. Bills down early, come roaring back to take a 17-13 lead, and force a 3 & out. Bills get the ball, predictable as the sun rising in the East, run three straight times and punt. You can’t beat elite teams with that mentality. This was another game where Bills win turnover battle, but lose the game. This has been a huge reason why we have been so unsuccessful v Patriots. Going back to Saint Doug, then Rex, and now McD, the same mentality has been employed. Take a lead or tie the game, and the offense goes into a shell. And Belichek knows this, when this situation arises in a game, he loads the front anticipating the run. And the Bills (unsuccessfully) run anyway, giving Brady the ball and the time to win the game. McD needs to change his mentality in order for the Bills to win playoff games. And please, don’t tell me that it’s the OC calling the plays. The head coach has a great amount of input, during the game, as to what TYPE of plays he wants called in various phases of the game. Again, big McD fan here, and he gets almost everything else right, an that’s no small feat. Losing when you win the turnover battle isn't the indicator of a too conservative offense. It can mean a bunch of different things ... poor defense, poor offense, bad luck, too may penalties and on and on. But if it does come down to the offense it's not so much about a too conservative offense as it is an unsuccessful offense. And plenty of teams beat elite teams by running when they have the lead and the ball late in the game. You just have to do it successfully and probably have the rest of your team stand up as well. He's a bit conservative for me too, but was that about belief in the defense, no faith in the pass game, was it a career-long hallmark or was it due to his belief about what he had to do with that particular team in those particular circumstances? We don't know yet. Edited June 21, 2020 by Thurman#1 3
Hebert19 Posted June 21, 2020 Posted June 21, 2020 I think his biggest weakness is loyalty. He is getting better at game management side. But he is loyal to a fault to players...and it hurts us from time to time.
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted June 21, 2020 Posted June 21, 2020 Maybe, but he seems pretty introspective and committed to continual improvement. im sure it’ll get better, especially as his Young QB becomes more reliable... thats gotta factor into the conservatism. 9
Reader Posted June 21, 2020 Posted June 21, 2020 This is brought up a lot, McD's "conservatism". The Bills called pass to run plays of 48 to 30 in the Houston game, not sure how that is conservative. McD also has one of the highest go for it on 4th down, not sure how that is conservative either. Also the Bills averaged more yards on run plays than pass plays and that includes Allen's numbers boosted by that screen pass to Singletary. Sure there were some runs that boosted the overall YPC, but it seems like if there was a game to point to as McD being too "conservative" this is not the game to do that, If McD is that conservative in the first place. Seems like people just assume because the Bills get leads and sometime loses that must mean their DC now HC must be conservative. 2
Doc Posted June 21, 2020 Posted June 21, 2020 I get the strategy with running 3 times after the turnover. Hopefully you at least get into FG range, take time off the clock, and make it a 3 score game. At worst punt and pin them deep. They didn't keep running every play after that.
QB Bills Posted June 21, 2020 Posted June 21, 2020 He's going to have to evolve into a more well rounded coach to have any serious success in today's NFL. He's too conservative and will flame out as a glorified defensive coordinator if he doesn't. 3 1
Mango Posted June 21, 2020 Posted June 21, 2020 1 hour ago, whorlnut said: My buddy who is a Bears fan came over to watch the playoff game with me. Most fans would be excited about being up 13-0 at the half of an away playoff game. I wasn’t. I told him the Bills would come out completely different and play conservative on offense and put the game in the hands of the defense. That’s exactly what happened. I saw it all year and there was no reason to expect otherwise. I truly think McD gets off on his defense. Haha. I think he wants his offense to do just enough and wants to see his defense close out games. It’s in his DNA. If he wants to be one of the best HCs in the game (and I believe he can be), then he needs to play to win on both sides. This is a lesson I think he learned from that game. We will see... I mean the only TD was on a drive with some unstastainable/gimmick plays. Our QB caught a TD pass and ran 42 yards on a sweep. You can’t count on those all game long for chunk plays. We passed twice for 11 yards (excluding Brown to Allen). I was obviously excited to score but at the time was worried about how we got our chunk yards and score on the drive. We had the lead but weren’t terribly methodical on the offensive side of the ball. I don’t think it was so much of a change in game plan, as much as it was the Bills catching a few breaks. 2
Don Otreply Posted June 21, 2020 Posted June 21, 2020 Sean’s flaw seems to me is in over trusting his D and not trusting the O enough, that and not giving Brian an occasional kick in the azs during games, it is situational conservatism that is his bane. That and player discipline/execution. It is my hope he has learned a hard lesson during the regular season and especially in that playoff game, and he actually changes his strategies to accommodate needed changes. But we all need to keep in mind these very same things can be said of coaches throughout the history of the game. It is hardly ever black and white, it is mostly shades of grey. Go Bills!!! 1
NewEra Posted June 21, 2020 Posted June 21, 2020 7 minutes ago, Mango said: I mean the only TD was on a drive with some unstastainable/gimmick plays. Our QB caught a TD pass and ran 42 yards on a sweep. You can’t count on those all game long for chunk plays. We passed twice for 11 yards (excluding Brown to Allen). I was obviously excited to score but at the time was worried about how we got our chunk yards and score on the drive. We had the lead but weren’t terribly methodical on the offensive side of the ball. I don’t think it was so much of a change in game plan, as much as it was the Bills catching a few breaks. We scored on the first drive and you were instantly worried? We’re a different breed 1
Happy Posted June 21, 2020 Posted June 21, 2020 I agree with the OP. Being too conservative is a big problem, and until McD fixes this, he will not see pass the Divisional round...if even that. You have to keep attacking offensively, even with a lead. Look at Pederson, Payton, Belichick; they all keep attacking and don't change what works until it doesn't. If Daboll starts to change his play calls to go away from what got them the lead, it is up to McD to bring him back. On defense, McD and Frazier need to understand that prevent defenses only prevent you from winning; the Houston game should be exhibit 'A' even though the linebackers were way too far back in that 3rd and 18 play. This formation never should have been called. Throughout NFL history, teams that play prevent only end up losing since it gives the offense 10 yard chunks, first downs, and before you know it a chance to win or at least tie the game. I don't understand this line of thinking, like McD thinks his defense will not succumb to the perils of the prevent D. I keep hearing on this board that McD is all about improvement, learning from mistakes, etc, etc. He hasn't really shown this on the coaching philosophy side of things, and that is why the Bills under McD will only go so far. Maybe the light will come on, but until it does, all the accolades he receives now will eventually start to fade and McD will be seen as limited. McD has potential...but will he realize it? 2
auburnbillsbacker Posted June 21, 2020 Posted June 21, 2020 People always remember the games lost by conservatism but always forget the games won by it. 6
Mango Posted June 21, 2020 Posted June 21, 2020 12 minutes ago, NewEra said: We scored on the first drive and you were instantly worried? We’re a different breed Dude, happy we scored, said it right in the post. And yes, in the back of my mind (especially after the second drive) I worried for an offense that has had difficulty sustaining drives and finding the end zone, scored on a drive with a 40+ yard QB run and a flea flicker. The very next drive was 9 yards and a punt. Turns out, we never found the end zone again, even after getting the ball at the HOU 35 off of a turn over. The offense did not have much of a rhythm. And it ended up being the type of offensive game I was worried about. Can’t find the end zone, can’t put up points outside of a few gimmick plays.
NewEra Posted June 21, 2020 Posted June 21, 2020 7 minutes ago, Mango said: Dude, happy we scored, said it right in the post. And yes, in the back of my mind (especially after the second drive) I worried for an offense that has had difficulty sustaining drives and finding the end zone, scored on a drive with a 40+ yard QB run and a flea flicker. The very next drive was 9 yards and a punt. Turns out, we never found the end zone again, even after getting the ball at the HOU 35 off of a turn over. The offense did not have much of a rhythm. And it ended up being the type of offensive game I was worried about. Can’t find the end zone, can’t put up points outside of a few gimmick plays. Yeah, you did say happy that you scored and at the same time you were worried. The second drive hadn’t happened at that point. Maybe if you weren’t so worried, we would’ve scored! I’m blaming you! 1
IgotBILLStopay Posted June 21, 2020 Posted June 21, 2020 I agree. I pointed this out last season in an early game how Mcd was not aggressive enough with 47 seconds left and multiple timeouts at the end of the half. This game https://www.espn.com/nfl/playbyplay?gameId=401128106 The other classic instance was, of course, the playoff game described in OP. However, I attribute the playoff loss to three other factors ahead of coaching conservatism: 1. Inability to convert solid drives into TDs and settling for FGs 2. Defense (including Tre) not playing up to its abilities in the second half 3. Phantom penalties against the Bills. That being said, I think McD himself is aware of the play calling shortcoming. He himself said that he made mistakes in the playoff game and said looking to what went wrong starts with looking at his own decisions.
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