Fauci : Football may not happen

[Penfield45]

4 minutes ago, spartacus said:

you hit on the obvious answer

have teams conduct their training camp as usual, with no access to family or other at risk individuals

after 6 weeks, everyone is immune and they have served their quarantine period

 

herd immunity is a good thing

 

problem is its tough to do this with non professional athletes. that is why college teams are having their kids test positive, while the premier league in England have conducted a test with ONE positive return in 1500+ tests conducted in the latest round of testing . these players are on strict guidelines and orders from their clubs on how to conduct themselves 

 

college football is not coming back for a while. they don't have the resources to handle it 

Edited June 18, 2020 by Penfield45

[DrDawkinstein]

6 minutes ago, spartacus said:

you hit on the obvious answer

have teams conduct their training camp as usual, with no access to family or other at risk individuals

after 6 weeks, everyone is immune and they have served their quarantine period

 

herd immunity is a good thing

 

Just because they are quarantined for 6 weeks doesnt mean they come out magically immune. It could be that no one ever had it, so everyone is still at risk.

 

Without a vaccine, "herd immunity" basically means "give it to everyone, see who lives and see who dies". That's not immunity.

[Gugny]

1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Just because they are quarantined for 6 weeks doesnt mean they come out magically immune. It could be that no one ever had it, so everyone is still at risk.

 

Without a vaccine, "herd immunity" basically means "give it to everyone, see who lives and see who dies". That's not immunity.

 

Okay, smart guy ... if I get it and I die, am I gonna get it again?

 

Yeah ... I didn't think so.

 

Edited June 18, 2020 by Gugny

[QCity]

Don't worry about this, I've been assured by posters here that the season is starting on time. Who you going to believe, those wacko physicians and immunologists with their kooky voodoo science?

[spartacus]

3 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Just because they are quarantined for 6 weeks doesnt mean they come out magically immune. It could be that no one ever had it, so everyone is still at risk.

 

Without a vaccine, "herd immunity" basically means "give it to everyone, see who lives and see who dies". That's not immunity.

on one hand, the claim is that the virus spreads quickly and easily to all who come in contact - which is why social distancing and masking is pushed ad nauseum.

 

However, your argument is that a confined group of athletes over a 6 week period won't all become infected if they ignore the draconian measures

 

If that argument is true and transmission is limited, then why do we need the masks and distancing?

 

 

 

[DrDawkinstein]

2 minutes ago, spartacus said:

on one hand, the claim is that the virus spreads quickly and easily to all who come in contact - which is why social distancing and masking is pushed ad nauseum.

 

However, your argument is that a confined group of athletes over a 6 week period won't all become infected if they ignore the draconian measures

 

If that argument is true and transmission is limited, then why do we need the masks and distancing?

 

 

 

 

Not my arguement at all and I wont address any of that off-topic nonsense until you address your original plan first.

 

How do you see putting all the players in quarantine as establishing immunity and herd immunity?

 

1. Everyone is tested before going into this quarantine.

 

2. If no one has it, they can not pass it because there is nothing to pass. Which means they come out just as vulnerable as before.

 

3. If someone does have it, you are saying everyone is signing up to catch it from that person, like an old school Chicken Pox Party. Except this is deadlier than Chicken Pox. So you are asking all of these athletes to knowingly get the virus,  and just hope they dont die.

 

What am I missing in your plan?

 

 

[Doc Brown]

2 hours ago, RobbRiddicksTDLeap said:

Like most health officials over the past few months, his predictions were based on flawed modeling, and politicized science. 

He predicted 100k to 200k deaths based off modeling in March.  We're at around 120k deaths.

[leonbus23]

2 hours ago, FireChans said:

I hope you didn’t buy any masks bro, they don’t work!

 

Except Fauci admitted that was a lie to the American Public to prevent shortages. 

 

Do you ever get tired of people lying to you because they know best?

I didn't buy any masks because I already had several bandannas, which I tied around my thigh over my jeans at both Ted Nugent and Toby Keith shows. 

[Augie]

Fauci was asked by Dan Patrick this morning if he thought the NFL was being “naively optimistic” about pulling the season off. He responded with something like “well, I wouldn’t want to call them naive.....” What he then thought, I’m sure, was “out loud in public”. 

[njbuff]

The NFL still has time on its hands.

 

Me personally, I’ll start to worry if this virus isn’t dead by July 25th when most of this country would have experienced an extensive heatwave by then.

 

Extreme heat across the landscape would kill any virus, but if the Kung flu somehow survives the peak of the heat season.............

 

bye bye to football of any kind in 2020.

[spartacus]

16 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Not my arguement at all and I wont address any of that off-topic nonsense until you address your original plan first.

 

How do you see putting all the players in quarantine as establishing immunity and herd immunity?

 

1. Everyone is tested before going into this quarantine.

 

2. If no one has it, they can not pass it because there is nothing to pass. Which means they come out just as vulnerable as before.

 

3. If someone does have it, you are saying everyone is signing up to catch it from that person, like an old school Chicken Pox Party. Except this is deadlier than Chicken Pox. So you are asking all of these athletes to knowingly get the virus,  and just hope they dont die.

 

What am I missing in your plan?
 

quarantine does not infer immunity

being exposed and contracting the virus creates immunity.

 

players all interact and get the virus from each other

they are at camp, removed from general population

they are healthy and very few get sick

sick get treated

at end of camp- no one is a carrier since the quarantine period has lapsed

on with the season

 

stop with the fear porn

for healthy college kids under 30, this is not a deadly disease

NY stats show that only .4% of those dying from Covid were under 30. That's a 99.6% survival rate.

https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov/views/NYS-COVID19-Tracker/NYSDOHCOVID-19Tracker-Fatalities?%3Aembed=yes&%3Atoolbar=no&%3Atabs=n

 

[zonabb]

One quarter of the teams in the league are located in 5 states that are among 10 that are seeing their highest average 7-day counts of new cases...Arizona, Texas, Florida, Nevada, North Carolina. 8 of 10 states are southern red states. So just make sure blame is properly leveled on the states that didn't want to listen because, you know, don't tread on me and all. 

[DrDawkinstein]

1 minute ago, spartacus said:

quarantine does not infer immunity

being exposed and contracting the virus creates immunity.

 

players all interact and get the virus from each other

they are at camp, removed from general population

they are healthy and very few get sick

sick get treated

at end of camp- no one is a carrier since the quarantine period has lapsed

on with the season

 

stop with the fear porn

for healthy college kids under 30, this is not a deadly disease

NY stats show that only .4% of those dying from Covid were under 30. That's a 99.6% survival rate.

https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov/views/NYS-COVID19-Tracker/NYSDOHCOVID-19Tracker-Fatalities?%3Aembed=yes&%3Atoolbar=no&%3Atabs=n

 

 

Gotcha, so yeah, your plan is "give it to everyone and see who lives". That's not so much herd immunity as it is Culling the Herd.

 

Some (not all) players might be of lower risk, but what about coaches and the rest of the staff? Frazier is in his 60s. Dabol is a chubster. We dont know who may have what vulnerabilities.

 

This isnt fear porn, stop with your extremist nonsense. This is looking at real data and thinking about the real consequences. Let's think this all the way through since it's kinda clear you haven't gone any further than just having an idea.

 

Even using your 0.4% mortality rate... Heck, I'll throw you a bone and use 0.2% mortality...

 

Teams bring 99 players into camp, and lets say a staff of about 50 people each. That's ~4800 bodies you want to give the virus to.

 

At a conservative mortality rate of 0.2%, that is 9.6 deaths. (Using the known rate of 0.4% puts it closer to 20)

 

So 10 deaths of players and coaches in camp. When is the last team the NFL had even 2 players or coaches die in a single season? That would be looked at as a tragic year.

 

Sorry, it's a bad plan.

[muppy]

2 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

How this would surprise anyone would be a surprise. It has been the Damocles sword hanging over the season from the get go. 
 

Fauci is one of the brightest medical minds in our nation, he is smart enough and honest enough to go with the best information available concerning Covid-19, he doesn’t lie, and has been a breath of fresh air on the national front unlike others. 
 

Go Bills!!!

I love and appreciate how you end all your posts with GO BILLS..it reminds me why Im here and helps me keep motivated to think we may have football..I dont want to think too much about no football Thats way too depressing a thought

 

GO BILLS Indeed ^5 

[spartacus]

4 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Gotcha, so yeah, your plan is "give it to everyone and see who lives". That's not so much herd immunity as it is Culling the Herd.

 

Some (not all) players might be of lower risk, but what about coaches and the rest of the staff? Frazier is in his 60s. Dabol is a chubster. We dont know who may have what vulnerabilities.

 

This isnt fear porn, stop with your extremist nonsense. This is looking at real data and thinking about the real consequences. Let's think this all the way through since it's kinda clear you haven't gone any further than just having an idea.

 

Even using your 0.4% mortality rate... Heck, I'll throw you a bone and use 0.2% mortality...

 

Teams bring 99 players into camp, and lets say a staff of about 50 people each. That's ~4800 bodies you want to give the virus to.

 

At a conservative mortality rate of 0.2%, that is 9.6 deaths. (Using the known rate of 0.4% puts it closer to 20)

 

So 10 deaths of players and coaches in camp. When is the last team the NFL had even 2 players or coaches die in a single season? That would be looked at as a tragic year.

 

Sorry, it's a bad plan.

ok

Edited June 18, 2020 by spartacus

[DrDawkinstein]

Just now, spartacus said:

your math is really bad

.004 x 100 players = .18 dead

somebody loses a toe

 

football players are in prime shape

the NYS stat is .4% derived from all NYS residents.

since healthier, players would be less at risk

 

150 players and staff x 32 teams = 4800 people. That is how many people you are giving it to. That is the real number.

 

Cutting it down to 100 is intentionally misleading. Heck, why not just apply 0.4% to every 1 individual? That means no one dies! Just show the virus that math!

 

 

 

 

8 minutes ago, spartacus said:

ok

 

This mean we're on the same page?

 

Look, I'd love to have a real plan on how to make the season happen. I even appreciate your creativity in trying to come up with a solution. But when you work through the math, it just doesnt work. Doesnt mean we give up.

[First Round Bust]

On 6/16/2020 at 1:17 PM, BuffaloBillies said:

 

Did someone say Double Jeopardy?

 

 

3 hours ago, 17islongenough said:

This guy has been wrong a lot.  

care to eniighten us with your medical credentials and proof; I would like to see a thesis on the topic as I study-up on the disease as family members contracted and beat it;  the guy has 50 years of experience and went to Africa to get first hand info on the ebola virus; or  are you just mad the season may fall victim to an outbreak in the middle of the football season which every other sport is anticipating and working to minimize ???

[Big Blitz]

In early March he said you can go on a Cruise and masks were pointless.  This was at the same time he was finishing a paper for the NEJM calling Covid a severe flu.  

 

How anyone can believe or trust anything this guy is saying at this point is beyond me.

 

Why is he talking about what could, or should be cancelled when its start date (first game) is over 2 months away?

 

Why dont you update us on the virus and tell us why you feel this way and why the goal posts have moved 76 times.  The logical conclusion right now is we could be doing this for years.  This is grossly irresponsible. 

 

The players are at ZERO risk.  None.  Coaches with comorbidities take some caution.  

 

Half the deaths are assisted living facility deaths.  Median age 70-75.

 

This is not hard.  And full stadiums.  You know the risks.  Here's your waiver.  

 

Carry on.  

 

Biggest breach of trust ever:

 

 

 

 

[Jauronimo]

6 minutes ago, njbuff said:

The NFL still has time on its hands.

 

Me personally, I’ll start to worry if this virus isn’t dead by July 25th when most of this country would have experienced an extensive heatwave by then.

 

Extreme heat across the landscape would kill any virus, but if the Kung flu somehow survives the peak of the heat season.............

 

bye bye to football of any kind in 2020.

Its hot as balls outside here in Texas and cases are spiking.  

[Big Blitz]

7 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

Its hot as balls outside here in Texas and cases are spiking.  

 

 

As people go back to work they are getting tested.

 

Holy cow lots of people have it.

 

This is a good thing.  The death rate is going to continue to plummet.

 

And the CDC will announce in mid August, "pandemic is over.  Just be safe.  Its like swine flu for the elderly."  

 

We shutdown the planet bc we were told it had a 4% IFR.  More cases.  Less deaths.  Quicker back to freaking normal.