Josh Allen and the Check Down Pass

[ganesh]

2 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Of course, maybe it isn't in the game plan because the running backs are not TT in catching that pass and turning it into a worthwhile gain.

This might change with the running game centered around Singletary and Moss.   It would be fun to see Singletary taking the swing pass and dodging through traffic, whereas Moss takes the same pass in the flat and bulldozes  a couple of LBs and Safeties !!!!

[first_and_ten]

4 hours ago, Protocal69 said:

https://www.nfl.com/news/bills-qb-josh-allen-i-m-not-going-to-be-captain-checkdown
 

No one would mistake Allen with a checkdown king. Pro Football Focus published a study that showed over the past two years, Allen threw just 20 checkdowns on 880 attempts. His 2.3 percent was the lowest among all qualifying quarterbacks. On third downs, Allen particularly refuses to give up on plays. He's thrown just one checkdown on 245 third-down attempts (0.4 percent).
 

Josh needs to improve his completion percentage BUT it’s funny how many QB who have high completion percentages but give up on plays because they are too scared to pull the trigger. If Josh can improve improve his completion percentage without being captain checkdown and hit the deep ball 2 times a game then look out NFL.

 

 

Nice!!!!

[wagon127]

I like that he doesn't check down too often, but I also wish he wasn't in dead last. The check down can come in handy in certain situations. I partly think the play calling may not have a check down option, but hopefully that changes. 

[Mr. WEO]

4 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

I love the aggressiveness Josh shows on third down. However I think on first and second down he needs to take a check down a bit more. The easiest way to get in third and long situations is to not take the 3-4 yard or even 2 yard dump off on an early down. So yes be aggressive but not stupid on third down but be smart on first and second down so you don't have to be aggressive as much on third down.

 

His completion % is highest on 1st down.  Followed by 2nd and then 3rd.

 

Trent Edwards had a higher completion rate and 3rd down conversion rate in his one full (14 games) season than Josh did last year.

[stuvian]

to be truthful, checking down more would improve his game

[DallasMac]

5 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Right On

 

A point

 

 

I saw a breakdown where someone charted everyone's movements synchronously and I'm not sure you're right about that specific play.  I think by the time Beasley juked and got open, Allen would have been flattened.

 

BUT there were several plays in the Houston playoff game where Bease was open and Allen didn't take him.  And Singletary was open on first down with room to run on so many broken plays that I facetiously suggested the Bills equip him with a 5 ft day-glo fiberglass pole topped with a flag, like a Syracuse fire-hydrant, so that Allen could see him better.

Just watched the coaches film on game pass to be sure.  Beasley breaks and Allen definitely has time.  Oh well though.

[John from Riverside]

Just give him some first down marker targets that he can Trust.....Bease was the first one he really had

 

If Josh trusts his short throw targets he will throw them the ball

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Hmmm throwing a low percentage 35 yard pass or picking up a few yards and giving your guy a chance to make a play for the first down????  Check downs are not always bad.  A nice balance of 50/50 balls that might generate a PI or a catch versus some sure yards is not a bad thing.  

Let's be honest though, Josh's biggest issue is still his accuracy.  He had some guys wide open by several steps last year and missed them badly.  And it was all over the place, right and left and down the seam.  We all saw them.  Every QB misses passes every game.  But he has to start connecting on at least one more of those deep shots and a couple of underneath passes a game, if not the Diggs deal will be meaningless.  

[1ManRaid]

Huh.  I didn't actually realize this was the case.  This is much more useful than threads like "Josh's completion percentage isn't that bad if you consider that if he had 2 more completions a game his percentage would be X."  I remember thinking there were times I wish he would have checked it down instead of trying to be the hero but in general you can't raise him above "game manager" playing for field position and not to lose and to championship material playing to win without taking the shots.

 

10 hours ago, mushypeaches said:

And this is why it never feels like 3rd and 10+ is never an automatic punt.  We've seen Josh Allen convert more of these in 2 years than most QB's i yn a lifetime simply because he DOES NOT GIVE UP on these downs.  And I'll take this mindset any day of the week vs the guy who might have a higher completion percentage but dumps it off to the RB in the flat for 6 yards when we need 12

Last season I felt confused that I was no longer instantly calculating on 3rd and longs where the punt would end up or how many yards would get us in field goal range.  I found myself instead thinking about how well the O-line would hold up to give receivers time to get open down field or if Josh would have to roll out, or seeing who was covering who and where the gaps in coverage would be.  What a feeling.

Edited June 12, 2020 by 1ManRaid

[1ManRaid]

I figure there will be another increase to completion percentage (including more checkdowns) once they feel Josh has his hit ceiling.  Fast forward his development first and then tweak his efficiency once you really know what you're working with.  The real long game by McBeane.

[machine gun kelly]

There is nothing wrong with a little more checkdowns to keep the chains moving, and under pressure, it’s also ok to throw it away vs. a pick or a sack.  Palmer under interviews has acknowledged he was working on Allen between the ears as much as his body mechanics.  We’ll see how it works.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

An improved run game should help with creating more makeable 3rd downs.  They also seemed to have a fair amount of penalties, and sacks on 1st and 2nd downs.  Get that sack rate a bit lower on 1st/2nd down by running more quick hitters... OR by checking down if you don't like the main route.

3 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

There is nothing wrong with a little more checkdowns to keep the chains moving, and under pressure, it’s also ok to throw it away vs. a pick or a sack.  Palmer under interviews has acknowledged he was working on Allen between the ears as much as his body mechanics.  We’ll see how it works.

 

No  - but i hate when a QB throws a 4 yard out route to a TE on 3rd and 13.  

[BigPappy]

14 hours ago, Reneth Gilne said:

While I love that he’s no Trint,( a total coward and fraud )  he does need to learn to find the open guy on third down rather than going deep.  Many losses last year had a drive or 3 where on third and say 7 or so, he’d launch it.  Dimarco in Houston was the last example of this.  He’d never connect but maybe twice all season,  meanwhile the all 22 would show beaz or someone wide open at the sticks.  Josh needs to take what the d gives him check down or not, those can be big plays sometimes but at least first downs.  Ask trentative. He made millions only doing that.

 Don't you think calling Trent a coward and a fraud is a little harsh? He stood in there and took hits and often right up until he took that last one that changed him for ever. He was never going to be great but he could have been pretty decent if not for that nasty hit he took. I never played Football except for with friends and I don't know what your history of playing the game is, but unless you have been in his shoes.... take those beatings.... it's a bit unfair of you or anyone to judge him as a coward or a fraud.  

Edited June 12, 2020 by BigPappy

[blacklabel]

The fact that he's regularly throwing to longer-developing routes and low percentage throws is something I feel gets overlooked when talking about his accuracy. Any QB can pad their completion percentage if they check it down four or five times a game. And there's nothing wrong with the check down, unless a QB begins to really rely on it way too much, to the point where they earn a reputation as a hesitant QB who'd rather take four yards on a dump off on 3rd & 12 than risk a pick by throwing a 15 yard out route or something. There have been a few times where he's checked it down for big gains too, usually after he's left the pocket and ran around for a few seconds and realizes, "Crap, not gonna get it down the field, oh, there's Chris Ivory, YOINK!" and he takes off for 50 some yards (see 2018 Vikings game). He's done that a few times. 3rd & 13 last year against the Eagles he hit Singletary in the flats and he took it in for a touchdown. Although, that could've been by design. 

 

I think I'm reaching a point where I just don't think we need to constantly nitpick his game. The talking heads have their preconceived narratives about him and they'll spin the inaccuracy crap until the wheels fall off. By now, I'm convinced the kid could go out there and go 35 of 40 for 430 yards and 5 TD's and all PFF would show is the five incompletions. "And on this play, he drives the ball right into the ground!" "Uh, he spiked it to stop the clock..." "YEAH AND THE SPIKE HIT THE TURF AND THEN HIT HIS CENTER RIGHT IN THE NUTS! Clearly this kid is so inaccurate otherwise Mitch Morse would still have his left nad!" 

[Bronxbomber21]

I also think a big reason for those numbers is because Josh would rather run with the ball instead  of checking it down for 2 ,3 yards 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

12 hours ago, wagon127 said:

I like that he doesn't check down too often, but I also wish he wasn't in dead last. The check down can come in handy in certain situations. I partly think the play calling may not have a check down option, but hopefully that changes. 

Yeah. He needs to learn to take the 3 yard pass on 1st and 2nd down unless there's a bigger play he sees quickly based on coverage. Im not a critic of his is accuracy because I just don't believe he'll ever be in the top half of the league in accuracy stats. Josh's next step is increasing his processing speed and improving game situation awareness.

[Jauronimo]

1 hour ago, BigPappy said:

 Don't you think calling Trent a coward and a fraud is a little harsh? He stood in there and took hits and often right up until he took that last one that changed him for ever. He was never going to be great but he could have been pretty decent if not for that nasty hit he took. I never played Football except for with friends and I don't know what your history of playing the game is, but unless you have been in his shoes.... take those beatings.... it's a bit unfair of you or anyone to judge him as a coward or a fraud.  

I lost all respect for him in his last game as a Bill.  Airmailing 3 straight passes 10 feet over T.O.'s head to prove some kind of point.  Running out of bounds 7 yards shy of the marker to avoid contact on 4th down rather than attempt any kind of pass.  He quit on the team.

[RyanC883]

I love that his instinct is not to "check down," Daboll needs to draw-up intermediate routes where the play is, in fact, a "check-down".  We have a ton of weapons that will spread out defenses, and getting Knox, Moss, or Singletary the ball within 5 yards of the LOS could result in a huge gain.  

[Mr. K]

Josh Allen > check downs

[JESSEFEFFER]

I'd like to know how they defined what a checkdown is.  I know what I think it is but it's maybe not the same for them.  Throwing short of the sticks on certain routes  has no chance to make a first down.  If there is a likelihood that there will be a 4th down attempt then a checkdown that improves the 4th down chances makes sense but then it may no longer be considered a checkdown.  Imo, it should be a pass that whether its completed or not, has no chance to make a first down.  It's really frustrating when it is thrown to a stationery target well short of the sticks.  Virtually no chance to make a tackler miss.  It's an easy completion though and will boost completion %.  I think he is approaching 3rd and long situations with the right mindset.