transplantbillsfan Posted June 6, 2020 Posted June 6, 2020 Despite posters like @Deranged Rhino being so utterly and incredibly wrong in their belief that Biden (with all the nicknames you throw at him) could never win the Democratic nomination, he has. So on Tuesday, November 3rd, 2020, it's Donald Trump vs Joe Biden. Momentum has been on Biden's side. Polls have, too. Trump can't get out of his own way. Biden's path to win is there and he's pretty much the favorite at this point, but it's officially on! 2
outsidethebox Posted June 6, 2020 Posted June 6, 2020 7 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said: Despite posters like @Deranged Rhino being so utterly and incredibly wrong in their belief that Biden (with all the nicknames you throw at him) could never win the Democratic nomination, he has. So on Tuesday, November 3rd, 2020, it's Donald Trump vs Joe Biden. Momentum has been on Biden's side. Polls have, too. Trump can't get out of his own way. Biden's path to win is there and he's pretty much the favorite at this point, but it's officially on! I think I heard this before............Hmmmm.............Something about Trump losing in a landslide.........it slips my mind at the moment
transplantbillsfan Posted June 6, 2020 Author Posted June 6, 2020 Just now, westside said: I think I heard this before............Hmmmm.............Something about Trump losing in a landslide.........it slips my mind at the moment I'm surprised this wasn't the first reply. This is the standard go-to for you folks. "But.. but... but... 2016!!!" There's a gigantic and very obvious difference between 2020 and 2016... actually there are a bunch of them: Donald Trump is the Establishment so he can't be the anti establishment candidate at this point. Donald Trump was an unknown in 2016. After 3+ years as President, and one who very much loves the Public aspect of it, he's very well known at this point. Connected with that last point, the American people that have gotten to know him have never given him high approval ratings. He currently sits somewhere around 40%. More people BY FAR voted for 3rd party candidates in 2016--basically throwing away their votes--than in the history of our Republic. That won't happen again. Both candidates in 2016 were unlikable and those voters swung heavily to Trump. Evidence suggests despite there being an "unlikable" quality to Biden, those "haters" are swinging heavily to Biden. And of course there's the obvious stuff, too. His handling of Covid-19 was his ultimate undoing. It's the first weekend in June and going into it over 110,000 Americans are dead. I don't know what that will be in November, but that alone is compounded by a complete lack of empathy on his part. That alone just makes him lose. Add to it an economy that never reached his promised highs that will likely still be struggling out of recession mode and a tone deaf idiot in terms of his handling of these protests as he attacks peaceful American protesters just for a photo op... Donald Trump is a guy who just can't get out of his own way. America has gotten to know Donald Trump well and doesn't like him. 2016 is irrelevant. That weatherman fallacy is a desperate attempt to cling to a President who's going down in flames.
ComradeKayAdams Posted June 8, 2020 Posted June 8, 2020 On 6/6/2020 at 12:02 AM, transplantbillsfan said: More people BY FAR voted for 3rd party candidates in 2016--basically throwing away their votes--than in the history of our Republic. That won't happen again. This doesn’t sound right to me. What about Ross Perot in 1992 and 1996? Or George Wallace in 1968? And if you go by percentages of total votes instead of overall third-party voting numbers, then this narrative quickly falters. Also, voting for third parties isn’t throwing your vote away. Third parties have historically played a critical role in forcing major changes with the policy platforms and internal composition of the two major American parties, even if they have rarely supplanted them. And finally, are you looking at any polling evidence that suggests people are less likely to vote third party than in 2016? Anything that I’ve seen so far implies the opposite: people in 2020 have only grown more disenchanted with the two-party duopoly. I should mention that there is still a small chance that Jesse Ventura will run as the Green Party candidate. This would be an absolute game changer to the Trump-Biden paradigm if it happens. Think 1992 Ross Perot, but less predictable because Jesse could potentially draw as many Never Trumpers and libertarians as he could progressive lefties. Most likely, however, Howie Hawkins will be the guy and will beat out Dario Hunter. Hawkins has been sharply criticized for a bunch of things like his involvement with internal Green Party corruption, his dubious campaign staff choices, and his neo-McCarthyism Russiagating. But I don’t really know if any of this will affect the Green nomination outcome and, in turn, the general November election in any pronounced way. I won’t challenge the rest of your post. You could easily be right or wrong, depending on so many variables that have yet to play out. Just look at how radically different the political landscape is now compared to a couple months ago! Trump’s pandemic response has definitely strained his older voting base, especially female Boomers and Silenters. Trump’s heavy-handed riot/protest response has also placed undue pressure on his libertarian base. From Biden’s perspective, the black vote turnout is way too chaotic to predict right now. You have to consider a host of factors like Biden’s Charlamagne tha God interview, all of his other ridiculous race-related comments, his old alliances with segregationists, his criminal law voting record, the BLM current events, his Obama friendship, and his VP choice (I’ve long suspected Kamala Harris). I also wouldn’t rely on the Millenials and Zoomers to come out for Biden. It’s a small mystery as to where Latinos will go or if they bother to come out to vote at all this time. I assume the white working class will go heavy for Trump, but I’ve also seen polling data indicating trends running in the other direction. Later I think I’ll talk more about the party loyalty status of the Democratic Party’s progressive wing. I like your thread’s potential! Now that Biden clinched the primary, it should supersede some of the other threads and become the marquee November 2020 presidential election thread. I hope it doesn’t get lost among the dozen or so ones discussing the same bleeping topic of police protests… 1
Foxx Posted June 8, 2020 Posted June 8, 2020 On 6/5/2020 at 11:27 PM, transplantbillsfan said: So on Tuesday, November 3rd, 2020, it's Donald Trump vs Joe Biden. more like Trump versus the criminal cabal. Joe isn't going to be running anything except in his Depends. 1
transplantbillsfan Posted June 8, 2020 Author Posted June 8, 2020 4 hours ago, Foxx said: more like Trump versus the criminal cabal. Joe isn't going to be running anything except in his Depends. Awww I missed you Foxxy Where ya been?
KD in CA Posted June 8, 2020 Posted June 8, 2020 Great. Four more years of mass hysteria.....or elect a dementia-ridden puppet. Awesome choice. 1
Foxx Posted June 9, 2020 Posted June 9, 2020 17 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said: Awww I missed you Foxxy Where ya been? working on my self sustainability.
ALF Posted June 9, 2020 Posted June 9, 2020 (edited) If Biden were elected he would have handlers or Cabinet pulling the strings . Just hope they would be competent. I would be ok with a good committee calling the shots. Edited June 9, 2020 by ALF 1
Nanker Posted June 9, 2020 Posted June 9, 2020 7 minutes ago, ALF said: If Biden were elected he would have handlers or Cabinet pulling the strings . Just hope they would be competent. I would be ok with a good committee calling the shots. Ah yes, Comrade ALF. A Politburo! A Capital idea. Or should I say, a Communist idea. Just what Amerika needs. More centralized thuggery.
ALF Posted June 9, 2020 Posted June 9, 2020 (edited) 37 minutes ago, Nanker said: Ah yes, Comrade ALF. A Politburo! A Capital idea. Or should I say, a Communist idea. Just what Amerika needs. More centralized thuggery. So you think if Biden were elected it would be better if he did not have advisors ? Record high federal , state and local deficits, record unemployment , pandemic , civil unrest , bankruptcies , evictions foreclosures , vehicle repo , yep Trump in a landslide Edited June 9, 2020 by ALF 1
Tiberius Posted June 9, 2020 Posted June 9, 2020 On 6/6/2020 at 12:02 AM, transplantbillsfan said: I'm surprised this wasn't the first reply. This is the standard go-to for you folks. "But.. but... but... 2016!!!" There's a gigantic and very obvious difference between 2020 and 2016... actually there are a bunch of them: Donald Trump is the Establishment so he can't be the anti establishment candidate at this point. Donald Trump was an unknown in 2016. After 3+ years as President, and one who very much loves the Public aspect of it, he's very well known at this point. Connected with that last point, the American people that have gotten to know him have never given him high approval ratings. He currently sits somewhere around 40%. More people BY FAR voted for 3rd party candidates in 2016--basically throwing away their votes--than in the history of our Republic. That won't happen again. Both candidates in 2016 were unlikable and those voters swung heavily to Trump. Evidence suggests despite there being an "unlikable" quality to Biden, those "haters" are swinging heavily to Biden. And of course there's the obvious stuff, too. His handling of Covid-19 was his ultimate undoing. It's the first weekend in June and going into it over 110,000 Americans are dead. I don't know what that will be in November, but that alone is compounded by a complete lack of empathy on his part. That alone just makes him lose. Add to it an economy that never reached his promised highs that will likely still be struggling out of recession mode and a tone deaf idiot in terms of his handling of these protests as he attacks peaceful American protesters just for a photo op... Donald Trump is a guy who just can't get out of his own way. America has gotten to know Donald Trump well and doesn't like him. 2016 is irrelevant. That weatherman fallacy is a desperate attempt to cling to a President who's going down in flames. Women hate him, too. And the majority of voters are the ladies. I just wonder how many young people are registering to vote. But, Truman was suppose to lose in 1948, too.
3rdnlng Posted June 9, 2020 Posted June 9, 2020 2 hours ago, ALF said: So you think if Biden were elected it would be better if he did not have advisors ? Record high federal , state and local deficits, record unemployment , pandemic , civil unrest , bankruptcies , evictions foreclosures , vehicle repo , yep Trump in a landslide Just when a strong leader is needed. Gee, I wonder where we can find one? Not to take away from the point I'm making but has the bolded above happened yet or is that just your wish list?
ALF Posted June 9, 2020 Posted June 9, 2020 3 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said: Just when a strong leader is needed. Gee, I wonder where we can find one? Not to take away from the point I'm making but has the bolded above happened yet or is that just your wish list? my nightmare
3rdnlng Posted June 9, 2020 Posted June 9, 2020 44 minutes ago, ALF said: my nightmare You need to find some emojiis. Somehow your message isn't getting across if you want to characterize what I bolded as a nightmare.
ComradeKayAdams Posted June 9, 2020 Posted June 9, 2020 TLDR Summary: I expect the progressive left voters from the Democratic primaries to stick with Biden at about 85%, which would be a little lower than Hillary’s approximate 90% in 2016. Tracking the African American turnout, the Trump voter defections, and the roughly 40% of apolitical independent voters in the general election will likely be far more relevant and interesting to our election analyses moving forward. On 6/8/2020 at 7:53 AM, RealKayAdams said: Later I think I’ll talk more about the party loyalty status of the Democratic Party’s progressive wing. Ok so now I’m going to delve a little deeper into the loyalty landscape of the particular demographic I’m most familiar with: the progressive left wing. At this point in time, I think Biden has already secured as much of this voting bloc as he can from the Democratic presidential primaries. I know the Warren suburban liberal female base is firmly in his camp. Same with the supporters of Beto, Castro, and de Blasio if you want to call these fellas progressive. Basically, any progressive who is big on social justice issues or is a believer in Russiagate has already aligned with Biden. Last I checked, the Yang Gang populist faction have mostly dissolved and will be either voting third party or staying home. The Tulsi anti-establishment crowd already defected from the Democratic Party way back in mid-March and are equally dispersed in every direction so as not to be a factor in the election. Marianne Williamson’s people have all gone Green. The much much bigger Bernie crowd appears to be falling in line with Biden at a 4-to-1 ratio right now, based on personal anecdotes and internal Bernie campaign canvassing polls and social media surveys. The emerging consensus among the “4” people is that Trump is an existential threat to the country, the Democratic Party can be reformed from within, and that incremental progress is the most realistic option. The “1” people do not believe Biden is necessarily the lesser of two evils from a long-term point of view, are done with selling out to centrists, believe the DNC is structurally incapable of reform, and feel that the Democratic Party must be burned to the ground from the outside by either voting third party or staying home. This 4-to-1 Bernie schism also seems to be reflected in the civil war within the top rungs of Bernie’s staff: the Jeff Weaver DC political careerist types happy to compromise with the establishment, versus the grassroots-based types who demand public policy purity. I figure this approximate 4-to-1 Bernie base ratio will hold into November, which means that I expect Biden to hold a very substantial portion of the overall progressive base (around 85%?) and maybe only a little worse than what Hillary rallied in 2016 (about 5% worse?). So I don’t think progressive loyalty to the Dems will be nearly as relevant to November 3 as the black turnout, the possible cadre of post-pandemic/post-protest Trump deserters, or the ever-mysterious voter pool of 40+% politically disengaged/disgusted Americans. The primaries showed me that the progressive left is likely a much smaller subset of Dems than I had initially hoped. I had also hoped that my fellow lefties would have distanced themselves from the rioting aspect of the otherwise beautiful Floyd protests. Nope! Instead at a nearly unanimous percentage, they are doubling down with calls for poorly articulated police defunding/abolition plans, downplaying property destruction, conspiracy theorizing the non-existence of Antifa, and outright lying about some of the basic realities of the crime data compiled by the DOJ. These attitudes are going to DESTROY much of the political progress I thought us Bernie folk were making with moderates, Boomers, and the country at large for the past five years. So when you situate the progressive left’s relatively small size and their unruly behavior in conjunction with their ease in bending the knee to Biden, then I believe it’s fair to say that my team conceded all relevance and power leverage in the November election (anyone who mentions the words “unity task force” in my vicinity shall receive a very intimidating scowl from me). In other words, the progressive left is in complete shambles and has been effectively subsumed as the DNC originally intended. Way to go, guys. 1
Deranged Rhino Posted June 9, 2020 Posted June 9, 2020 5 hours ago, ALF said: If Biden were elected he would have handlers or Cabinet pulling the strings . Just hope they would be competent. I would be ok with a good committee calling the shots. But Alf, we know who the cabinet will be -- they'll be filled with lieutenants from the Clinton and Obama machines. They won't be a "good committee", they'll be filled with the same people who abused the law for their own benefit for decades. The very same people who built the system people now are protesting over being "systemically unjust". And unlike the last few times they've been in power, being No Chance Joe's shadow cabinet means they can be even more extreme because they'll have zero accountability to the voters. Not only is what you're suggesting fundamentally against everything in the constitution and American ethos, it's blisteringly stupid to plug in the same people who already failed/robbed/conned us all and expect them to do something different this time. 1 1
SectionC3 Posted June 9, 2020 Posted June 9, 2020 On 6/8/2020 at 8:12 AM, Foxx said: more like Trump versus the criminal cabal. Joe isn't going to be running anything except in his Depends. Trump v criminal cabal? Is there a civil war in the alt-wrong community?
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