Prescott for Allen

[Kirby Jackson]

7 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Daniel Jones could probably lead your 'maybe' list.

 

Since I am a biased Bills fan their are only two I would trade Allen for. Mahomes and Wilson. I think Wilson is one of those QB's that can play to 40 at a high level. Maybe even 41 or 42. So that's 8 or 10 years still of elite QB play.

 

I really like the other 3 on you 'yes' list. And all three might even be better than Allen now. But i don't see any of them as either substantially better or a guarantee that they will sustain their success or trajectory that I would be comfortable trading Allen. I rather just take the risk of keeping Allen and hope to hit one out of the park.

I can’t get on the Daniel Jones train and I know that he played well. He really belongs on the maybe list. It’s probably more of me just not believing that his ceiling is too high. He feels like he could have a Kirk Cousins career (which is very good). I guess it’s a bit hypocritical because Baker is similar in that sense. I’ve just always believed that he had “it.” Personal preference I guess but either guy could easily be on or off the maybe list. 

[papazoid]

Dak is very over rated....definitely not worth $35-40 mil

[BarleyNY]

I see The Endowment Effect is strong in this thread.  Realistically Allen is still unproven enough that he has not yet earned a second contract so I’m discounting longevity concerns with other QBs.  I’d trade him for a number of others, including those still going strong at the end of their careers.  For an extreme example, give me two seasons of Brees where I know we will be in the mix for a SB and I run with it.  I’ll take that near guarantee of top end QB play over the possibility of Allen improving enough to do that.  And I don’t know what to say to anyone still taking Allen over Watson after watching how they both played down the stretch of the playoff game.
 

I get the optimism for Allen, but every fan base has that for their young QB too.  Except Bears fans for Trubisky.  That ship has sailed.  Try to take emotion out of the equation and you’ll see that there is a lot to like about some of the other QBs out there.

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

Didn’t Josh beat him head to head and Dak has the better offense in my opinion. I think Dak is fools gold and I don’t ever see him putting enough good games together to take his team to a SB.

[Kirby Jackson]

6 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Jesus. Did Dak and Josh play a game of one on one? 

 

This isn't basketball. 

How could you not take Russell wilson over Josh Allen at this point? Regardless of age and contract.

 

Hes easily a top 5 QB and he as you said he is 32. QBs are playing into their 40s. They'd get at least another good 5 years out of him and I'd bet a whole lot they'd win at least one Super Bowl within those 5 years.... while Josh Allen is a guy with big upside who's shown improvement but isn't even in the top half of the league. It would be a a no brainer of a trade to just about every non Bills fans.

I have Wilson in the yes category.
 

I have him behind only Mahomes at this point (in any position). I think the world of Russell Wilson. My hesitation is ONLY age related. If he were to come here tomorrow we may win Super Bowls now. He would be battling the Chiefs and Ravens though. If we didn’t get one in the next 3 years (for example) you’d be looking at a 35 or 36 year-old QB and may run out of time. With Josh, in theory, you have him for 10-15 more years. That’s my only hesitation. 

[dma0034]

I would trade Allen for Prescott. The only problem is Prescott isn't worth the 35-40 million he wants. No doubt Prescott is a better QB than Allen.

[Doc]

Josh had the 9th most TDs (29) by a QB to just 9 INTs, despite deficiencies at #2 (or #1 depending on how you view John Brown) WR and RB (essentially he had half a RB since Gore was bad and split carries with Singletary), behind an average OL who had 4 new starters, 9 new starters on offense and playing the 6th hardest schedule of defenses.  Harping on his completion percentage when his receivers had the most drops in the NFL and there are other reasons for it is missing the bigger picture.

[DCOrange]

12 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Factoring in contracts, age, production, etc:

 

Yes (as of 6/1/20):

Mahomes

Watson

Wilson

Murray

Lamar

Maybe (but probably not as of 6/1/20):

Burrow

Baker

Darnold

Tua

 

I go back and forth on Russell Wilson. I think that he’s the 2nd best player in football. He will be 32 this year though. I still probably would. You’d still have 6 or so elite years from him.

I more or less agree with this list. I don't think I'd bother trading him for anyone on the maybe list outside of Burrow, though I wouldn't be surprised at all if the others end up being better QBs long-term.

 

Also on topic of the OP, I think Dak would be a maybe for me and I'd probably lean towards doing it (with the condition that he signs a long-term deal immediately). I think Allen could end up being better than Dak but I think I might lean towards locking in Dak, who is roughly a top 10-12 QB IMO rather than hoping Allen gets there, especially considering this team is ready to win now.

[Plano]

can we stop?

 

dak *clap* is *clap* not *clap* good *clap*

[Billl]

33 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I have Wilson in the yes category.
 

I have him behind only Mahomes at this point (in any position). I think the world of Russell Wilson. My hesitation is ONLY age related. If he were to come here tomorrow we may win Super Bowls now. He would be battling the Chiefs and Ravens though. If we didn’t get one in the next 3 years (for example) you’d be looking at a 35 or 36 year-old QB and may run out of time. With Josh, in theory, you have him for 10-15 more years. That’s my only hesitation. 

When Wilson is 36, you draft another QB in the first round to groom as his replacement.  Only this time, make sure he had a good coach in middle school so you don’t have to wait until he’s been in the league 5 years to make a determination as to what you’ve got.

[T master]

I don't want nothing that comes from Dallas !! 

[eball]

Nothing against Dak, but no thank you.  Josh is about to become a superstar in this league.

[Stanley Lombardi]

No.  Not under any terms or circumstances.

[Shaw66]

3 hours ago, eball said:

 Josh is about to become a superstar in this league.

That's why there's a short list I'd trade for.

 

Not Wilson.  He IS a superstar, but I'll take 15 years of Josh instead of six of Wilson.

 

Not Lamar, not Murray.   They may or may not become superstar.   I like Josh's odds better.  

 

Mahomes, yes.  Watson, no, but only because I think Watson and Allen are a push, so why switch.

 

I like Burrow a lot, but he hasn't played a down in the NFL.   Also is marginal on the Parcells' test:

1. Be a three-year starter - no
2. Be a senior in college - yes
3. Graduate from college - yes
4. Start 30 games - no
5. Win 23 games - yes
6. Post a 2:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio - yes
7. Compete at least 60-percent of passes thrown - yes

[Billl]

45 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

That's why there's a short list I'd trade for.

 

Not Wilson.  He IS a superstar, but I'll take 15 years of Josh instead of six of Wilson.

 

Not Lamar, not Murray.   They may or may not become superstar.   I like Josh's odds better.  

 

Mahomes, yes.  Watson, no, but only because I think Watson and Allen are a push, so why switch.

 

I like Burrow a lot, but he hasn't played a down in the NFL.   Also is marginal on the Parcells' test:

1. Be a three-year starter - no
2. Be a senior in college - yes
3. Graduate from college - yes
4. Start 30 games - no
5. Win 23 games - yes
6. Post a 2:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio - yes
7. Compete at least 60-percent of passes thrown - yes

Mahomes fails that test with flying colors.

1. No

2. No

3. No

4. No

5. No

6. Yes

7. Yes

 

So does Josh.

1. No

2. No

3. No

4. No

5. No

6. Yes, by a very slim margin

7. No

 

 

Bill wasn’t exactly a QB guru.

 

Edited June 2, 2020 by Billl

[eball]

5 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

while Josh Allen is a guy with big upside who's shown improvement but isn't even in the top half of the league at this point

 

I disagree.  Looking at what Josh has done and what he had to work with, combined with how raw he was coming into the NFL, he is arguably in the top half of NFL QBs entering the 2020 season.

 

Yes, I'd trade him straight up for Russell Wilson today -- but I'd still hate to do it.  Homer or not, I think Josh is going to go through the roof starting this year.

[Shaw66]

32 minutes ago, Billl said:

Mahomes fails that test with flying colors.

1. No

2. No

3. No

4. No

5. No

6. Yes

7. Yes

 

So does Josh.

1. No

2. No

3. No

4. No

5. No

6. Yes, by a very slim margin

7. No

 

 

Bill wasn’t exactly a QB guru.

 

Interesting.  Thanks.  

[Kirby Jackson]

37 minutes ago, Billl said:

Mahomes fails that test with flying colors.

1. No

2. No

3. No

4. No

5. No

6. Yes

7. Yes

 

So does Josh.

1. No

2. No

3. No

4. No

5. No

6. Yes, by a very slim margin

7. No

 

 

Bill wasn’t exactly a QB guru.

 

I’m not a big fan of that scale either. It’s totally antiquated too. The NFL game used to influence the way that the college game was played. Now it’s the other way around. Spread offenses and mobile QBs are all over the league. What it takes to be successful now is totally different than when Parcells was around. 
 

I don’t know what that list of criteria would look like at this point? I would want to judge them on their toughest opponents because that’s the closest that we have to the NFL but it’s tricky. Clemson is a great example of this. They always have more talent on the field than the team across the field. The only times that it is equal is when they play Alabama, Ohio State, LSU, etc... It’s tough to judge them when they are steamrolling Georgia Tech.  At the same time if you apply this logic to Josh or Jordan Love how are they supposed to succeed against Oregon? Every guy on Oregon locks up their inferior skill players. I think that this works better for non-QBs. Khalil Mack was the best player on the field when Ohio State played Buffalo. That should tell you all you needed to know.
 

Interviews would probably be the top criteria on the list. What makes this guy tick? What do the coaches think? What about his teammates? Josh would be incredible in this category. 
 

I’d want to see their ability to improvise. The biggest plays made in today’s NFL are off-script. Look at the last 2 MVPs and Aaron Rodgers whole career. They make plays when plays aren’t there to be made.

 

I would want at least 2 years as a starter. Trubisky is the reason for that. You can’t have TOO small of a sample size. 3 isn’t realistic in the current environment but 20-25 starts is necessary. 
 

60% completion seems reasonable. I’d keep that. 
 

I’d probably judge total TDs vs. total turnovers and want that closer to 3:1 (at least 2.5:1). There’s more scoring now so that is me adjusting for inflation. 
 

I’d also want some metric to judge how many times they got to their 3rd read. That to me just shows an ability to get through progressions and make good decisions. I don’t know what that number would be because I don’t know the sample size. It’s just something that I’d want to see happen consistently. 
 

Obviously, size, arm strength, athletic testing numbers are all crucial. 

[eball]

1 minute ago, ScottLaw said:

I’d rank him around 20 or so.

 

I don’t think you can say well he’s raw and he’s had little to work with so he deserves to be ranked higher.... while that may be somewhat true, his numbers and overall production of the offense don’t justify him being in the top half of the league. That could change this season.(hopefully)

 

Me saying he is top half entering this season is not a purely numbers-based projection; it is wide-ranging and encompasses his anticipated growth as well as the coaching and talent around him.

[Doc]

Again, 9th in TDs among QBs.  The game is about scoring, not completion percentage.