Kittle looking for a "Kittle Deal"

[Chicken Boo]

18 minutes ago, NewEra said:

That’s nonsense.  Several QBs have 4+ years of elite production. Not one of them is better than Pat Mahomes....who has the same amount of years as elite production as Kittle. 

Makes more sense just to say that you think he’s better because he’s better. 

 

I'm confused. Not sure what you mean in the first graph.

 

I think Kelce is better than Kittle.  He's an excellent blocker and a more dynamic receiver, in my opinion.

[GreggTX]

Yup. He'd look real nice in Bills Blue. I wonder what numbers he's asking for.

[Thurman#1]

9 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

it's really not.

 

 

Fair enough. I think there's still a bit of a question but if you think it's completely clear, fair enough.

 

Kittle's better. He's more productive with QBs (1377 yards in 2018 with Nick Mullens and CJ Beathard throwing to him for all but two and a half games) who are a ton less effective, he blocks better, he's a lot farther from the end of his career.

 

Take a look at Kelce's stats before Mahomes. And Nick Mullens and CJ Beathard are no Alex Smiths.

 

And I'm a Kelce fan. Great player.

Edited May 31, 2020 by Thurman#1

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Fair enough. I think there's still a bit of a question but if you think it's completely clear, fair enough.

 

Kittle's better. He's more productive with QBs (1377 yards in 2018 with Nick Mullens and CJ Beathard throwing to him for all but two and a half games) who are a ton less effective, he blocks better, he's a lot farther from the end of his career.

 

Take a look at Kelce's stats before Mahomes. And Nick Mullens and CJ Beathard are no Alex Smiths.

 

And I'm a Kelce fan. Great player.

 

Mullens was not effective?  In 8 games  he threw 2300 yards, 13 TDs and 91 rating right off the bench.  Looks pretty good to me. 

 

Kittle looooves to tell us about his love for blocking, which is great.  But his QB was sacked twice as much as Mahomes on similar number of drop-backs. Maybe Kelce is a great blocker too.

 

If Kittle has another 1100+ year, yeah pay him top TE money.  He's under contract for another year. This WR/TE issue was settled in 2014 when Graham lost that argument in arbitration as he was ruled a TE.  Clearly, Kittles would be ruled the same.  He's not going to be paid by the 49ers like a WR.

[JohnC]

42 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Mullens was not effective?  In 8 games  he threw 2300 yards, 13 TDs and 91 rating right off the bench.  Looks pretty good to me. 

 

Kittle looooves to tell us about his love for blocking, which is great.  But his QB was sacked twice as much as Mahomes on similar number of drop-backs. Maybe Kelce is a great blocker too.

 

If Kittle has another 1100+ year, yeah pay him top TE money.  He's under contract for another year. This WR/TE issue was settled in 2014 when Graham lost that argument in arbitration as he was ruled a TE.  Clearly, Kittles would be ruled the same.  He's not going to be paid by the 49ers like a WR.

You are right that Graham lost an arbitration case that ruled that he was a TE governed by the parameters of a TE payment scale. But that ruling doesn't necessarily carry over forever. What happens when another hybrid receiving TE who doesn't go through arbitration gets paid at a high receiver level?  Then the previous hybrid TE model is altered. Not long ago premier guards pay structure increased. It appears now that they have gone down. My point is that the salary scale for a position is not static but instead very fluid.  

[Mr. WEO]

Just now, JohnC said:

You are right that Graham lost an arbitration case that ruled that he was a TE governed by the parameters of a TE payment scale. But that ruling doesn't necessarily carry over forever. What happens when another hybrid receiving TE who doesn't go through arbitration gets paid at a high receiver level?  Then the previous hybrid TE model is altered. Not long ago premier guards pay structure increased. It appears now that they have gone down. My point is that the salary scale for a position is not static but instead very fluid.  

 

 

Well....a team would have to agree to pay him as a WR for the model to be altered.  I don't see any team doing that.  The last team (NO) fought not to.

[Doc]

Kelce's a great TE but I'd take Kittle. His last 2 years have been comparable with Kelce's and those were his 2nd and 3rd seasons, not 6th and 7th. 

[JohnC]

6 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

Well....a team would have to agree to pay him as a WR for the model to be altered.  I don't see any team doing that.  The last team (NO) fought not to.

I agree that a team would first have to play a hybrid TE the top shelf money for the model to be altered. But the position value changes all the time. Many teams believe that running backs shouldn't qualify for premier money because they are interchangeable and have a short shelf life. However, some teams don't follow that conventional model. The Giants selected Saquan Barkley with a top of the draft pick and made him the centerpiece of their offense. The Cowboys didn't follow the same positional value when they drafted Ezekiel Elliot. And the Rams took the same approach when they drafted Gurley (now traded to Atlanta). Each of these players ended up or will end up with contracts that didn't follow the conventional more modest model for backs. 

 

There are teams that place a high value on safeties and how different philosophies on how they will be used. And unsurprisingly there is a wide variance with the salaries. Again, the point that I am making is that the precedents for salary scales for positions are constantly changing. And it shouldn't be surprising that for certain teams that get a maximum output from the hybrid TE position will pay the player with a commensurate salary according to one's value. 

[Mr. WEO]

3 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I agree that a team would first have to play a hybrid TE the top shelf money for the model to be altered. But the position value changes all the time. Many teams believe that running backs shouldn't qualify for premier money because they are interchangeable and have a short shelf life. However, some teams don't follow that conventional model. The Giants selected Saquan Barkley with a top of the draft pick and made him the centerpiece of their offense. The Cowboys didn't follow the same positional value when they drafted Ezekiel Elliot. And the Rams took the same approach when they drafted Gurley (now traded to Atlanta). Each of these players ended up or will end up with contracts that didn't follow the conventional more modest model for backs. 

 

There are teams that place a high value on safeties and how different philosophies on how they will be used. And unsurprisingly there is a wide variance with the salaries. Again, the point that I am making is that the precedents for salary scales for positions are constantly changing. And it shouldn't be surprising that for certain teams that get a maximum output from the hybrid TE position will pay the player with a commensurate salary according to one's value. 

 

Elliot and Gurley were absolutely centerpieces of their respective offenses.  Gurley's contract became (along with Bell's) a major deterrent for future RB such contracts.  Elliot was such a major piece of the Cowboys offense that they made him the highest paid RB at the time.  But they are all RBs.

 

Kittle wants to be paid like a top WR.  SF won't do that because they don't have to.  They can make him the highest paid TE if they want.  They can franchise him a few times.  His options are limited to taking their offer or holding out.  No leverage for him.

[Kirby Jackson]

50 minutes ago, JohnC said:

You are right that Graham lost an arbitration case that ruled that he was a TE governed by the parameters of a TE payment scale. But that ruling doesn't necessarily carry over forever. What happens when another hybrid receiving TE who doesn't go through arbitration gets paid at a high receiver level?  Then the previous hybrid TE model is altered. Not long ago premier guards pay structure increased. It appears now that they have gone down. My point is that the salary scale for a position is not static but instead very fluid.  

 

49 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

Well....a team would have to agree to pay him as a WR for the model to be altered.  I don't see any team doing that.  The last team (NO) fought not to.

It’s going to come down to snap counts not a designation. If a guy plays 85% of his snaps as a slot receiver and you call him a TE he would win a case to be a receiver. I don’t know where the line is but it’s clearly higher than where Graham was.

[Rc2catch]

Kittle deserves wide receiver money. Tight end has morphed into the most important position on offense besides quarterback.

They are the mismatch and the good ones cannot be covered. He should break the trend and cash in. I do think Kelce is a better receiver but he’s also in a pass first offense. Either way both guys cannot be covered by any defense 

[NoSaint]

1 hour ago, JohnC said:

You are right that Graham lost an arbitration case that ruled that he was a TE governed by the parameters of a TE payment scale. But that ruling doesn't necessarily carry over forever. What happens when another hybrid receiving TE who doesn't go through arbitration gets paid at a high receiver level?  Then the previous hybrid TE model is altered. Not long ago premier guards pay structure increased. It appears now that they have gone down. My point is that the salary scale for a position is not static but instead very fluid.  

And his tag would follow that. As per the previous arbitration.

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

23 hours ago, Happy said:

If SF can't get a deal done with him, I would trade Knox, Sweeney, and throw in Croom for Kittle

Throwing Croom into the deal would be disrespectful to the 49ers and cause the deal to fail. The 49ers can just wait until we release him but I don't see another team signing him. Croom has very little chance to even make a XFL roster.

[NoSaint]

4 minutes ago, Rc2catch said:

Kittle deserves wide receiver money. Tight end has morphed into the most important position on offense besides quarterback.

They are the mismatch and the good ones cannot be covered. He should break the trend and cash in. I do think Kelce is a better receiver but he’s also in a pass first offense. Either way both guys cannot be covered by any defense 

that’s simply not true. Toss Gilmore on him and he’s done. Tight end stats Evaporate when covered by a good corner - but those corners are dedicated to the WR1 who is much more game changing. As indicated by their pay scale and draft position. 

 

a good tight end is a great resource but you are terribly wrong if you think kitties is as impactful as the top wide receivers.

Edited May 31, 2020 by NoSaint

[JohnC]

14 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

that’s simply not true. Toss Gilmore on him and he’s done. Tight end stats Evaporate when covered by a good corner - but those corners are dedicated to the WR1 who is much more game changing. As indicated by their pay scale and draft position. 

 

a good tight end is a great resource but you are terribly wrong if you think kitties is as impactful as the top wide receivers.

For some teams the TE is a prominent offensive weapon and on other teams it is less so. A good example of that would be the Ravens. If in the example you cited with Gilmore covering the hybrid TE even if the result would be less receptions for the particular player it would loosen up the coverage for the wide receivers. In this example stats would not necessarily reflect the impact of the player and how it positively affects the production of the offense. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

2 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Mullens was not effective?  In 8 games  he threw 2300 yards, 13 TDs and 91 rating right off the bench.  Looks pretty good to me. 

 

Kittle looooves to tell us about his love for blocking, which is great.  But his QB was sacked twice as much as Mahomes on similar number of drop-backs. Maybe Kelce is a great blocker too.

 

If Kittle has another 1100+ year, yeah pay him top TE money.  He's under contract for another year. This WR/TE issue was settled in 2014 when Graham lost that argument in arbitration as he was ruled a TE.  Clearly, Kittles would be ruled the same.  He's not going to be paid by the 49ers like a WR.

 

I mean... They had the 2nd best rushing attack. That would indicate some solid TE blocking, not sack numbers.. since kittle is probably running routes on pass plays. 

 

He will get the highest paid TE money, or he gets tagged and it becomes a problem. He's made nothing so far as a 5th rounder, so I assume there's a lot of incentive to get the deal done now so he can get a signing bonus. 

 

4 and 60 or 6 and 90 seem like good numbers to me. 

24 minutes ago, JohnC said:

For some teams the TE is a prominent offensive weapon and on other teams it is less so. A good example of that would be the Ravens. If in the example you cited with Gilmore covering the hybrid TE even if the result would be less receptions for the particular player it would loosen up the coverage for the wide receivers. In this example stats would not necessarily reflect the impact of the player and how it positively affects the production of the offense. 

 

Good TEs can really help rushing offenses too. Baltimore and SF were rushing beasts.  Probably not a huge coincidence that the NE rushing attack went to hell after gronk retired too. 

[NewEra]

11 hours ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

I'm confused. Not sure what you mean in the first graph.

 

I think Kelce is better than Kittle.  He's an excellent blocker and a more dynamic receiver, in my opinion.

What’s not to understand?  You said that Kelce was better because he’s more proven m....based on four elite seasons played while Kittle has 2.   Brady, Brees, Rodgers, have 10+ elite seasons.  Mahomes has 2.  They’re more proven than Mahomes.....yet Mahomes is better than them and everyone else.

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

 

It’s going to come down to snap counts not a designation. If a guy plays 85% of his snaps as a slot receiver and you call him a TE he would win a case to be a receiver. I don’t know where the line is but it’s clearly higher than where Graham was.

 

See below.  Likely doesn't matter.

 

53 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

that’s simply not true. Toss Gilmore on him and he’s done. Tight end stats Evaporate when covered by a good corner - but those corners are dedicated to the WR1 who is much more game changing. As indicated by their pay scale and draft position. 

 

a good tight end is a great resource but you are terribly wrong if you think kitties is as impactful as the top wide receivers.

 

"The evidence that appeared to weigh most heavily into Burbank's decision was that Graham was often defended as a tight end even when he lined up in the slot (i.e., by a linebacker or a strong safety).

Wrote Burbank: "The evidence also supports findings that, like tight ends, wide receivers and running backs often line up in the slot ... and that the defense employed against any player so aligned turns on the player's position, not his alignment, because of the physical attributes and skill sets of the players in those positions."

 

Imagine if WRs got LB coverage most or all of the time?  He has a mismatch in his every every time.

 

35 minutes ago, JohnC said:

For some teams the TE is a prominent offensive weapon and on other teams it is less so. A good example of that would be the Ravens. If in the example you cited with Gilmore covering the hybrid TE even if the result would be less receptions for the particular player it would loosen up the coverage for the wide receivers. In this example stats would not necessarily reflect the impact of the player and how it positively affects the production of the offense. 

 

 

Baltimore doesn't have a Kittle caliber TE.  Theirs is a noun dominant game.

 

No team will pay top dollar to be a decoy for another WR they are paying.

[NewEra]

3 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Mullens was not effective?  In 8 games  he threw 2300 yards, 13 TDs and 91 rating right off the bench.  Looks pretty good to me. 

 

Kittle looooves to tell us about his love for blocking, which is great.  But his QB was sacked twice as much as Mahomes on similar number of drop-backs. Maybe Kelce is a great blocker too.

 

If Kittle has another 1100+ year, yeah pay him top TE money.  He's under contract for another year. This WR/TE issue was settled in 2014 when Graham lost that argument in arbitration as he was ruled a TE.  Clearly, Kittles would be ruled the same.  He's not going to be paid by the 49ers like a WR.

Yeah......because Kelce and Kittle are usually blocking on passing plays?.  Mahomes’ targets are also more adept at getting open.  

 

kittle is trying to reset the TE market. Just because Graham’s didn’t 5 years ago doesn’t mean that Kittle can’t.  Whether that happens or not is tbd.  My bet is him getting around 15 mill a year, which is approx 50% more than the current highest paid TE.  Sounds like resetting the market to me. Time will tell.  

[NoSaint]

58 minutes ago, JohnC said:

For some teams the TE is a prominent offensive weapon and on other teams it is less so. A good example of that would be the Ravens. If in the example you cited with Gilmore covering the hybrid TE even if the result would be less receptions for the particular player it would loosen up the coverage for the wide receivers. In this example stats would not necessarily reflect the impact of the player and how it positively affects the production of the offense. 

 

my argument was with someone saying TE was the second most impactful position behind qb.

 

obviously WR is more impactful and there’s evidence of that from a variety of angles.

 

that doesn’t mean a tight end doesn’t have impact. Obviously they do. A great receiving back or a slot receiver can effect the defense too... but WR1 is the premium pass catcher in the league.