Ryen Russillo podcast/Josh Allen review

[ngbills]

How much you wanna make a bet I can throw a football over them mountains?... Yeah... Coach woulda put me in fourth quarter, we would've been state champions. No doubt. No doubt in my mind.

[Prospector]

25 minutes ago, Ya Digg? said:

It just seems to be another one of those discussions where the narrative was already set on Josh before he was even drafted and people don't want to change their minds about it.  They used a bunch of stats (which can be manipulated however you want them to look) and then said he won't change at any point going forward.The thing about that statement is that the other narrative about Allen coming out of college was that he was going to be a project and definitely needed a couple of years to develop, but none of these guys ever bring that up any more.  It's just a reminder that these guys are here more for entertainment than analysis

This, a thousand times over... they said he was a project and needed a few years, but now they can make a decision after a year and a half?! Wtf?!

[Shaw66]

I agree with a lot of others here - maybe we're all just homers - who think we haven't seen all that we're going to get out of Allen.   A few miscellaneous points:

 

1.  I'm sick of hearing about Allen's deep ball.  Football Outsiders measured deep ball accuracy over the past two seasons.  Average was 46%, Allen was 40.   He had a horrible 2019, but he had an excellent 2018.

 

2.  I'm sick of hearing that if you haven't done it in the first two years, you aren't going to do it.   These guys go out and collect evidence about other QBs who made it or didn't, etc.   The fact is, there are very few QBs who have made it, so they don't represent a large enough sample size to prove that their way was the only way.   Plus, as I've said here often, John Elway was as bad as Allen for YEARS and didn't become a top-10 passer until his ninth season in the league.   

 

3.  These guys ignore his year one to year two improvement.   

 

4.  These guys talk about Lamar Jackson like he's a superstar.   I seriously doubt it.   At the end of their careers, the characteristic that matters most for successful QBs is brains.   The game keeps changing, the defenses keep changing, and the QBs who succeed have brains.   Here's a list of recent Super Bowl winning QBs and their Woberlic scores:

 

Eli Manning 39

Aaron Rodgers 35

Tom Brady 33

Drew Brees 28

Russell Wilson 28

Joe Flacco 27

Ben Roethlisberger 25

Mahomes 24

Watson (just for comparison) 20.

 

Lamar Jackson was 13.  Josh Allen was 37.   

 

I see no reason to conclude yet that Allen isn't going to be great.   These guys all just continue to recite the narrative they've recited forever.   Bills suck, Allen's a project, Allen's not accurate, blah, blah, blah.   

 

All I know is this:   I watch the games.  I see Allen make any throw you want.   I see him make incredible plays.   I see a leader.   I see someone worth waiting for.  

Edited May 28, 2020 by Shaw66

[Happy]

12 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

All I know is this:   I watch the games.  I see Allen make any throw you want.   I see him make incredible plays.   I see a leader.   I see someone worth waiting for.  

 

Totally agree.  Patience will pay off with Josh.  I know he makes some bad decisions/throws, but that is part of the growing process; I want to see McDermott and Daboll let Josh sling it and not try to manage the game.  I suspect that may have been a big part of the problem last year, that Josh was trying to be too careful with the long ball.

[FireChans]

2 hours ago, Jauronimo said:

Agreed 100%. He's basically still a rookie.  Like Tyrod.

Allen is going to have a hangover and miss a day of TC and we’re gonna hear “he didn’t have a full offseason!” for 12 months.

[PromoTheRobot]

4 hours ago, eball said:

I'm not even going to waste my time listening to that because if anyone says Josh Allen has already reached what he will be in the NFL then their opinion means nothing to me.  There is literally no reason not to expect Allen to continue to improve, based upon what we've already seen.

 

That take, saying Josh is who he is, is just the last attempt to validate his draft grade. People won't let go of it.

[MJS]

Allen can easily be a 4000 yard, 30 TD passer in the next year or two. He can even easily get over that mythical 60% completion percentage.

 

Not much needs to change for that to happen. Hopefully Daboll is actually a good OC and won't hold Allen and the offense back. Haven't made my mind up on him yet.

 

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, MJS said:

Allen can easily be a 4000 yard, 30 TD passer in the next year or two. He can even easily get over that mythical 60% completion percentage.

 

Not much needs to change for that to happen. Hopefully Daboll is actually a good OC and won't hold Allen and the offense back. Haven't made my mind up on him yet.

 

If Allen went from a kid who could barely score a TD at Wyoming to someone who can easily throw for 4K yards and 30 TD’s, maybe let’s give Dabs some credit.

19 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

You see no reason to conclude Josh Allen isn’t going to be great? I like Josh but that’s a ridiculous statement at this point. 

 

Hes not even in the top half of the league for starting QBs. He does make incredible plays and then follows it up with a WTF was that throw in the dirt or over someone’s head. He’s not consistently good yet which is what separates the good/great QBs from the bad or average ones.

My favorite part of that post was when he said Josh’s progress from year 1 to 2 was ignored, and then ignored Lamar going from bad to MVP in year 1 to 2. 

[MJS]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

If Allen went from a kid who could barely score a TD at Wyoming to someone who can easily throw for 4K yards and 30 TD’s, maybe let’s give Dabs some credit.

 

My favorite part of that post was when he said Josh’s progress from year 1 to 2 was ignored, and then ignored Lamar going from bad to MVP in year 1 to 2. 

Lamar wasn't really bad in year 1, though.

 

I don't know if Daboll deserves credit or not. I really don't. He might, I just don't know. He's never had a good offense in the NFL, but then he's never had a lot of talent to work with. I'm a little concerned that he is running a very complex scheme, but maybe it will all be fine.

 

I KNOW that Allen deserves a lot of credit because I see him out there making plays and his potential, ability, and athleticism are easy to see.

 

Like I said, I haven't made up my mind on Daboll. I think after this year I will.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

5 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

Not sure I'll agree with the assertion that we've already seen "who Josh is" and that it won't change. It isn't like he has to re-invent his entire game, just start hitting deep balls, and a few other minor tweaks. The same "incremental improvement" that he then says he expects out of Darnold. So which is it?

 

There does seem to be a double standard then if that is what he says of Darnold but not Allen.

 

Josh Allen QB rating with season broken into halves:

 

2018- Games 1-6:    61.8

2018- Games 7-12:  72.6

2019- Games 1-8:    82.9

2019- Games 9-15:  88.8

 

Sam Darnold QB rating with season broken into halves:

 

2018-Games 1-7: 74.3

2018- Games 8-13: 81.4

2019- Games 1-7: 81.1

2019- Games 8-13: 87.9

 

Allen has clearly been making incremental improvements. Or even chunk improvements. 

 

I think Allen suffers from a few things when compared to guys like Darnold and Mayfield even though common sense should tell us that Allen is every bit as good as those guys right now if not better and has just as good a chance to be great as those guys.

 

1. Allen was ridiculed coming out as a guy that was not ready and so many questioned if he was even worth a day two pick let alone top 10 overall. To be fair a lot of the criticism was maybe warranted. Heck, his 61.8 QB rating in his first six NFL starts backs that up. But because that was the narrative, many have not been able to see past the initial scouting report and their initial biases against Allen.

 

2. The bad start out of the gate with the exception of the one Vikings game. As I mentioned, it helped to re-affirm in the critics eyes that he was over drafted and not ready. 

 

3. The perception that he is an athlete playing the QB position.

[HappyDays]

If you want a podcast from someone that pays attention to the Bills, yesterday's Locked on Bills was all about Josh Allen:

 

https://open.spotify.com/episode/67uuJl6b3m5zFFVxWpIEzc?si=DvBxQ9wSShi_wB0ZDDvOVA

[FireChans]

36 minutes ago, MJS said:

Lamar wasn't really bad in year 1, though.

 

I don't know if Daboll deserves credit or not. I really don't. He might, I just don't know. He's never had a good offense in the NFL, but then he's never had a lot of talent to work with. I'm a little concerned that he is running a very complex scheme, but maybe it will all be fine.

 

I KNOW that Allen deserves a lot of credit because I see him out there making plays and his potential, ability, and athleticism are easy to see.

 

Like I said, I haven't made up my mind on Daboll. I think after this year I will.

He was compared to 2019. 

 

Either way, I don’t think that supports the opposing argument. If LJ went from decent to MVP, he’s got an even BETTER chance of being a good QB.

[JESSEFEFFER]

52 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

If you want a podcast from someone that pays attention to the Bills, yesterday's Locked on Bills was all about Josh Allen:

 

https://open.spotify.com/episode/67uuJl6b3m5zFFVxWpIEzc?si=DvBxQ9wSShi_wB0ZDDvOVA

 

I don't know what Joe makes at TDN and with Locked On, but WGR should just hire him to do One Bills Live and be done with it.  He probably could still do the draft stuff because the GR guys go to the Senior Bowl and combine anyways.  He knows front office and roster personnel throughout the league better than most.  

 

As for this particular episode, it is worth a listen for the purposes of this thread discussion.

[Nihilarian]

5 hours ago, Jauronimo said:

Agreed 100%. He's basically still a rookie.  Like Tyrod.

Man, I feel badly for you if look at Josh Allen and see another Tyrod Taylor. 

[Shaw66]

3 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

There does seem to be a double standard then if that is what he says of Darnold but not Allen.

 

Josh Allen QB rating with season broken into halves:

 

2018- Games 1-6:    61.8

2018- Games 7-12:  72.6

2019- Games 1-8:    82.9

2019- Games 9-15:  88.8

 

 

That's an interesting progression.  I think it reflects the progress we've seen.  

 

I also think so many of these self-proclaimed experts don't watch all the games.  

[GoBills808]

3 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

There does seem to be a double standard then if that is what he says of Darnold but not Allen.

 

Josh Allen QB rating with season broken into halves:

 

2018- Games 1-6:    61.8

2018- Games 7-12:  72.6

2019- Games 1-8:    82.9

2019- Games 9-15:  88.8

 

Sam Darnold QB rating with season broken into halves:

 

2018-Games 1-7: 74.3

2018- Games 8-13: 81.4

2019- Games 1-7: 81.1

2019- Games 8-13: 87.9

 

Allen has clearly been making incremental improvements. Or even chunk improvements. 

 

I think Allen suffers from a few things when compared to guys like Darnold and Mayfield even though common sense should tell us that Allen is every bit as good as those guys right now if not better and has just as good a chance to be great as those guys.

 

1. Allen was ridiculed coming out as a guy that was not ready and so many questioned if he was even worth a day two pick let alone top 10 overall. To be fair a lot of the criticism was maybe warranted. Heck, his 61.8 QB rating in his first six NFL starts backs that up. But because that was the narrative, many have not been able to see past the initial scouting report and their initial biases against Allen.

 

2. The bad start out of the gate with the exception of the one Vikings game. As I mentioned, it helped to re-affirm in the critics eyes that he was over drafted and not ready. 

 

3. The perception that he is an athlete playing the QB position.

Played some monster defenses the second half of 2019 too

[John from Riverside]

"I think Josh Allen is what he is"

 

"Even though he is improving"

 

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[Royale with Cheese]

Did you guys know Josh Allen went to Wyoming?

[transplantbillsfan]

Same ole same ole ridiculous analytics argument.

 

I'm sick of it.

 

They constantly bring up the word "anomaly" as an argument as to why Josh Allen won't improve. Clearly they just haven't looked at his history.

 

He's already an anomaly.

Edited May 29, 2020 by transplantbillsfan

[njbuff]

2 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Did you guys know Josh Allen went to Wyoming?

 

I thought he went to Kentucky. ?