Dan Orlovsky just did AFCE QB rankings on ESPN. Had Allen at #3!

[FireChans]

4 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Oakland? Most definitely not.

 

Atlanta. Probably not.

 

Indianapolis? Week 17? Playing on the road? Certainly possible. Heck, would be interesting to see how many of the regular defensive starters even played the usual number of snaps for the Colts in that game.

 

On the flip side I know for certain none of Allen’s opponents in his final three starts laid down or made personnel changes you would make near the end of a loss season.

 

And the other half of the puzzle was the defensive rankings for those 3 teams vs the 3 Allen faced. And that’s the most important piece of the puzzle obviously.

Minshew didn’t have a full TC as a starter and wasn’t supposed to even start. And he was a rookie. Other important pieces of the puzzle.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

2 minutes ago, Billl said:

You didn’t say he had a better second half.  You said Minshew got less efficient and Josh got more efficient and specifically mentioned his last 3 games including that turd against Pittsburgh.  I gave you both of their ratings for their last 3 games.  Minshew didn’t get less efficient.  His numbers dwarfed Josh’s during that same stretch.

Bill, go back and look at that post again.

 

clearly I list games1-8 and  9-15 for Allen and games 1-7 and 8-14 for Minshew and the QB rating for each span of games. It’s an even split of first half of season vs second half for each player.

 

That is not three games. I’m confused on where you are getting that take.

4 minutes ago, Billl said:

Explain again how he got less efficient, then.  I’m confused.

First half of season vs. second half of season.

[Billl]

1 minute ago, Doc said:

 

More film?

Watch the Pittsburgh game and tell me Josh was even mediocre.  Duck turned it over 5 times, and the Steelers had 51 rushing yards.  This was one of those vaunted 4th quarter comebacks.

 

Buffalo got over 100 yards rushing from their RBs, 5 turnovers from their defense and managed 17 points on 13 possessions.

6 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

He also became a less efficient passer over the course of the season. Josh became a more efficient passer over the course of the season against elite defenses in Baltimore, New England and Pittsburgh. 

 

Hats off to Minshew for his great start to the season but by the end of the season he was clearly not playing any better than Allen. Credit to Allen for improving? Or discredit Minshew for tailing off?

Did someone hack your account?

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

14 minutes ago, Billl said:

Did someone hack your account?

ah. I see where are lines are crossing.  You are taking that quote to mean I’ve said he played well in all three of those games. Obviously he did not. Those were great defenses.

 

the quote is supposed to go along with the original stats showing each players first half of the season vs second half of the season. Basically I am showing that Allen improved in the second half overall while having to also play against the toughest defenses duri g that second half span.

 

no he did not have good games against Pitt or Baltimore. But even with those two stinkers he played a tiny bit better than Minshew to finish off the second half of the season. 
 

that is my entire point.

 

i can see where it was confusing with how I typed that so thank you for clarifying.

25 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Minshew didn’t have a full TC as a starter and wasn’t supposed to even start. And he was a rookie. Other important pieces of the puzzle.

True.

Also true is that he regressed as he got more reps and more teams got film on him.

[FireChans]

4 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

ah. I see where are lines are crossing.  You are taking that quote to mean I’ve said he played well in all three of those games. Obviously he did not. Those were great defenses.

 

the quote is supposed to go along with the original stats showing each players first half of the season vs second half of the season. Basically I am showing that Allen improved in the second half overall while having to also play against the toughest defenses duri g that second half span.

 

no he did not have good games against Pitt or Baltimore. But even with those two stinkers he played a tiny bit better than Minshew to finish off the second half of the season. 
 

that is my entire point.

 

i can see where it was confusing with how I typed that so thank you for clarifying.

True.

Also true is that he regressed as he got more reps and more teams got film on him.

There was once a young QB who regressed as he got more reps and film. His last 6 games, he threw 5 TD’s to 7 INT’s at the end of his rookie year. Since then, he’s thrown 81 TD’s to 21 picks. Do you know who he is?

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

9 minutes ago, FireChans said:

There was once a young QB who regressed as he got more reps and film. His last 6 games, he threw 5 TD’s to 7 INT’s at the end of his rookie year. Since then, he’s thrown 81 TD’s to 21 picks. Do you know who he is?

No. But there was also a 6th round QB who went on to be the GOAT.

 

I’m not saying Minshew won’t have a long career. I believe my only main argument was that I rather have Allen over Minshew. Both finished the second half of the season with the same ability for the most part so I’ll take the guy with the sky high potential over the better version of Case Keemun. 

 

 

 

51 minutes ago, Billl said:

You didn’t say he had a better second half.  You said Minshew got less efficient and Josh got more efficient and specifically mentioned his last 3 games including that turd against Pittsburgh.  I gave you both of their ratings for their last 3 games.  Minshew didn’t get less efficient.  His numbers dwarfed Josh’s during that same stretch.

 

Billl,

 

my original post on the topic was about 8 or 10 posts before the one that you read and have sited. If you read that one first I think my position makes more sense. iPhone doesn’t give me a post # to reference.
 

my bad for the confusion on the other post. 

[BigBillsFan]

7 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

He also became a less efficient passer over the course of the season. Josh became a more efficient passer over the course of the season against elite defenses in Baltimore, New England and Pittsburgh. 

 

...But at the end of the day they were the same player in the second half of the season.

 

Now Minshew was a true rookie. Allen in year two. But Minshew had far more experience and readiness coming out of college. So one could argue a year 2 Allen is on the same level of a rookie Minshew. Again a wash?...If he can find his deep ball again and improve those numbers he can take another jump in yards and completion percentage and overall rating in year 3. Seems unlikely he will be as bad as he was last year. So we should see an improvement. Question will be how much.

 

Actually the last 3 games for Minshew were far better than Allen's final 3. A factor obvious is the defenses Allen faced were far better so you can't just say Minshew was better, that wouldn't be fair, in the same way you can't say Josh become more efficient against elite defenses. 

 

Allen's games against Baltimore, NE & Pitt were not efficient, they weren't good at all. Throwing for under 50% and never having a game over 208 yards just isn't good or efficient.

 

Also, you can't compare a true rookie with a 2nd year pro who had a full training camp as the presumed starter. You can't re-make Allen a rookie just like Tyrod wasn't a rookie his 1st year with us. You've seen the NFL in practice and games for a year, that matters.

 

Like I said, Minshew would have had over 4,000 yards and 26 TDs and 420 yards his rookie year. If Allen could do that I would have anointed him already.

 

At this point neither are guaranteed long-term starters in this league. Neither have shown enough. The modern NFL means you need to throw for 4,200-4,500 yards with 28+ TDs thrown to be a good starter. Minshew was close to that, but still that could be the fact he's new in the league.

 

Both are a work in progress. If Josh could have Minshew-like numbers with this defense the team is playoff bound and better. We have a better defense, better front office, better coaches, and deeper roster with better salary cap next to Jacksonville and our fans are the best.

 

This has to be Josh's year with Diggs.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 hour ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

Actually the last 3 games for Minshew were far better than Allen's final 3. A factor obvious is the defenses Allen faced were far better so you can't just say Minshew was better, that wouldn't be fair, in the same way you can't say Josh become more efficient against elite defenses. 

 

Allen's games against Baltimore, NE & Pitt were not efficient, they weren't good at all. Throwing for under 50% and never having a game over 208 yards just isn't good or efficient.

 

 

Yeah that was the wrong choice of words in that post. Was meant to mean he improved over the whole of the second half of the season despite having to play those tough defenses during that stretch.

 

I wouldn't go as far as saying his game @ New England was not good. He posted a QB rating over 100. And over the last two seasons Mahomes is the only QB to post a better QB rating than Allen at New England in 2018. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 minute ago, ScottLaw said:

?

 

Allen was atrocious in the first half of that football game....he played better in the 2nd but it wasn’t a good game at all. It was a poor game overall.

 

??

 

At the end of the day what was his QB rating? Good or bad?

 

 

[BigBillsFan]

1 hour ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Yeah that was the wrong choice of words in that post. Was meant to mean he improved over the whole of the second half of the season despite having to play those tough defenses during that stretch.

 

I wouldn't go as far as saying his game @ New England was not good. He posted a QB rating over 100. And over the last two seasons Mahomes is the only QB to post a better QB rating than Allen at New England in 2018. 

 

QB ratings can be defective if you don't pass for much yardage or only complete 50% of passes and only score 17 points but you hit some long balls & some TDs with no interceptions.

 

Mahomes had a 83 rating with 283 yards and 1 TD and 1 INT and a 65% completion % (keeps the sticks moving and keeps the defense off the field) in 2019 which to me is far better than a 100+ rating but multiple 3 and outs and a few long balls and only completed 50% of your passes. It's Rob Johnsoneque.

 

Mahomes game with the 100+ rating against NE was a game where he passed for 4 TDs, 2 INTs, 352 yards, 64% completion rate and they scored 40 points in 2018. Now Chiefs lost in a shootout, but that 100+ rating is SUPER impressive. Not a 13 for 26 and 208 yards with only 17 points to show. That won't win many games.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

2 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

His QB rating? Who gives a ***** it’s a terrible statistic to grade a QB.Watch the game. It wasn’t a good performance. He was missing receivers left and right in the first half. He rebounded nicely in the 2nd half but still struggled up until that final drive. 

Okay Scott that is fine. But you are either the only person to never use QB rating ever in any QB debate. Or a liar. If you are consistent with that thought and never bring it up then that is fair.

 

BBF- Mahomes  was really good with a 83 QB rating. That’s fine. But then does that mean we can also admit Allen was pretty good in some of his games with 83 ratings? 

[BillsCelticsAngelsBama]

On 5/27/2020 at 9:08 AM, LB3 said:

Knucklehead? 

Only football I.Q. He's a very intelligent person and I soooo want to be wrong. But trying to improve accuracy and learning to not be Superman are hard to change, especially the former. But I would love to be so wrong. I want the Lombardi before I die. My name on other sites was Win1B4IDie. Just one. Just wish Fromm's brain was in his body.

[machine gun kelly]

Orlovsky isn’t a tool.  One more reason I almost never watch ESPN. A little with NFLN, and my Achilles is I love NFLR at least some of the shows.  I wouldn’t cry if  Weiss would be fired, but the rest are decent.