Dan Orlovsky just did AFCE QB rankings on ESPN. Had Allen at #3!

[BigBillsFan]

11 minutes ago, Billl said:

Didn’t the Jaguars just get 21 TDs and 6 INTs from a rookie last season?  How is that a mess?  He’s locked in for 3 more years for about $2,000,000 total.  Does he just have the wrong animal on his helmet?

 

That's only part of it. He had more yards for the entire season with 2 less games, better completion %, higher rating, and more TDs even with 2 less games than Allen.

[first_and_ten]

On 5/27/2020 at 10:42 AM, buffaloboyinATL said:

I know these rankings don't mean anything at all, but until the season starts, we have nothing better to talk about.  This is ridiculous. He ranked Darnold number 1, Tua at #2! then Allen and then Stidham.  How the hell can you rank Tua higher than Allen after everything he accomplished so far?   I am fine with him favoring Darnold right now, even though I disagree, but come on! Tua?

 

We are getting a lot of love right now from the media, so this isn't a media bashing thread, just a statement at how bad Orlovsky's take is.  He seems to have an agenda against Josh Allen, which he continues to attribute to "inaccuracy".

 

In the words of Aaron Rodgers.....Relax

Orlovsky is an idiot

[Billl]

2 minutes ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

That's only part of it. He had more yards for the entire season with 2 less games, better completion %, higher rating, and more TDs even with 2 less games than Allen.

Lot of posters here don’t want to admit it, but he was really good.  Daniel Jones is another example.  His team was horrible, but he showed a lot.  Just to show how bad his team was, they went 1-2 in games were Jones put up these combined numbers:  13 TDs, 0 INTs, 982 yards passing.  But he didn’t win enough games, so he sucks...

[BigBillsFan]

1 minute ago, Billl said:

Lot of posters here don’t want to admit it, but he was really good.  Daniel Jones is another example.  His team was horrible, but he showed a lot.  Just to show how bad his team was, they went 1-2 in games were Jones put up these combined numbers:  13 TDs, 0 INTs, 982 yards passing.  But he didn’t win enough games, so he sucks...

 

QBs win games maaaaaaaaannnnnnnnnn

(I trust my inner Tebow and Sanchez)

 

In the other thread where the one guy asked who they would want Minshew or Allen I took flak for saying Minshew, but yes I think he's going to be an above average QB in the NFL. I think he'll be a better version of Case Keenum.

[Doc]

48 minutes ago, BigBillsFan said:

That's only part of it. He had more yards for the entire season with 2 less games, better completion %, higher rating, and more TDs even with 2 less games than Allen.

 

Allen had more total TDs and they were about the same in total yards.  And Minshew threw the ball more even though he played fewer games.

 

As for Minshew, as a 6th round pick, he'll be looking for that huge payday in 2 years, i.e. a year before Josh.

[The 9 Isles]

Dan Orlovsky is a fair weather analyst. He crapped all over Josh Allen before he was drafted and then started singing his praises after Allen looked like a playmaker and a fan favourite (at least in Buffalo). He seems to play to whatever crowd is in the room. He sucked as a QB and why he quickly became this sort of QB Swamy I’ll never know. 
 

Dan Orlovsky on the 2018 QB draft class
 

“Josh Allen

Listen, this is not a personal attack on Josh Allen. I don’t even know the kid. But there’s a lot of talk about him being in play for the No. 1 pick, and I just don’t see it. Before I can consider him as a potential No. 1 pick — or even a top 10 pick — I need somebody to give me a reason other than he’s big and he throws it far. I mean, Bradley Chubb, the defensive end from NC State … he’s big, and I bet he could throw a football pretty far, too. Does that mean you’re taking him No. 1 to be your quarterback?

There’s just a massive, massive difference in the NFL between being a thrower and playing quarterback. You have to understand the game. You have to understand defenses. You have to understand the problem the defense is presenting you with and identify the opportunities.

Let’s look at the tape.“

 

“I love his size, like everybody does. And I love his arm. He can throw it on a rope. But unlike Ben Roethlisberger, or Tony Romo, or Steve McNair — other guys who dominated at smaller schools and then dominated in the NFL — when did Josh Allen ever dominate in college? He didn’t face the kind of competition that the other quarterbacks on this list faced, and they all dominated. And for me to take a guy from a small school in the top five or even the top 10, I need to see that he dominated.“

[buffaloboyinATL]

57 minutes ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

QBs win games maaaaaaaaannnnnnnnnn

(I trust my inner Tebow and Sanchez)

 

In the other thread where the one guy asked who they would want Minshew or Allen I took flak for saying Minshew, but yes I think he's going to be an above average QB in the NFL. I think he'll be a better version of Case Keenum.

Does that mean you don’t think Allen will be an above average QB?  ps I personally believe Allen’s ceiling is higher but That doesn’t mean much if he doesn’t live up to it.

[FireChans]

31 minutes ago, The 9 Isles said:

Dan Orlovsky is a fair weather analyst. He crapped all over Josh Allen before he was drafted and then started singing his praises after Allen looked like a playmaker and a fan favourite (at least in Buffalo). He seems to play to whatever crowd is in the room. He sucked as a QB and why he quickly became this sort of QB Swamy I’ll never know. 
 

Dan Orlovsky on the 2018 QB draft class
 

“Josh Allen

Listen, this is not a personal attack on Josh Allen. I don’t even know the kid. But there’s a lot of talk about him being in play for the No. 1 pick, and I just don’t see it. Before I can consider him as a potential No. 1 pick — or even a top 10 pick — I need somebody to give me a reason other than he’s big and he throws it far. I mean, Bradley Chubb, the defensive end from NC State … he’s big, and I bet he could throw a football pretty far, too. Does that mean you’re taking him No. 1 to be your quarterback?

There’s just a massive, massive difference in the NFL between being a thrower and playing quarterback. You have to understand the game. You have to understand defenses. You have to understand the problem the defense is presenting you with and identify the opportunities.

Let’s look at the tape.“

 

“I love his size, like everybody does. And I love his arm. He can throw it on a rope. But unlike Ben Roethlisberger, or Tony Romo, or Steve McNair — other guys who dominated at smaller schools and then dominated in the NFL — when did Josh Allen ever dominate in college? He didn’t face the kind of competition that the other quarterbacks on this list faced, and they all dominated. And for me to take a guy from a small school in the top five or even the top 10, I need to see that he dominated.“

I think that’s actually pretty fair analysis. I can’t think of a successful QB who was drafted in the top 10 or top 5 who didn’t dominate at a small school.

[BigBillsFan]

43 minutes ago, buffaloboyinATL said:

Does that mean you don’t think Allen will be an above average QB?  ps I personally believe Allen’s ceiling is higher but That doesn’t mean much if he doesn’t live up to it.

 

Currently I don't sadly. I think he'll improve this year which will give fans hope, but his problem is with his nerves. He's admitted this, he said he likes getting hit early in a game to get his nerves down to earth. He's a good 4th quarter QB, but he's a poor 1-3rd quarter QB minus just a couple of games. 

 

He'll be like the hot girl at the bar who smiles at you but will never date you.

 

My other reason is that the FO is great at depth and defense, but they have shown very little in the way of offensive prowess from picks to coaches. You don't pick a 7th overall pick and give him ZERO threats or a real QB to let him learn behind instead of Peterman as a rookie.

 

Then in year 2 instead of having plays designed that take 3-4 seconds to develop they should have known he's one of the most blitzed QBs in the pocket and they gave him few relief valves hoping they could rely on his athleticism.

 

I think he was a 3rd rounder picked in the 1st because of his Uncle Rico arm, smart, great leader and amazing athleticism. He's the perfect guy to sit on the bench for 2 yrs, come in during blow-outs and let him learn the game.

 

The modern NFL isn't like the 90's where a guy could develop. The salary cap and social media changed everything.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 hour ago, BigBillsFan said:

In the other thread where the one guy asked who they would want Minshew or Allen I took flak for saying Minshew, but yes I think he's going to be an above average QB in the NFL. I think he'll be a better version of Case Keenum.

 

Sounds like you are very down on Allen if you are willing to pass on Allen's upside for a better version of Case Keenum.

 

I like Minshew as a Case Keenum/ Ryan Fitzpatrick type. But why commit to a guy that doesn't have a high ceiling? Even if Minshew is the better QB at this moment which I think is debatable. But for arugments sake say he is. I still take Allen based on upside alone. Especially when you factor in Allen being the most un-ready QB to come out of the draft in a long time and he's already improving not just season over season but when you break his seasons down into halves or quarters he continues to make consistent improvements.

 

Allen's QB rating his first two years broken down by half seasons

 

2018- Games 1-6:    61.8

2018- Games 7-12:  72.6

2019- Games 1-8:    82.9

2019- Games 9-15:  88.8

 

Can't really ask for more than that out of a QB that some thought had no business being drafted on day 1 because of a lack of readiness. 

 

Minshew QB rating broken down:

 

2019- Games 1-7:   95.7

2019- Games 8-14: 87.0

 

If you threw out the week 17 game for Minshew (which was a good game for him statistically) his rating in games 8-13 would have been 83.4 A significant drop off from how he started the season before teams had a lot of film on him. Of course that's not fair so I included it in the original comparison. But it is fair to question how motivated that Colts defense was that day to be playing the final meaningless regular season game on the road. Especially considering Minshew had struggled quite a bit leading up to that game.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

38 minutes ago, BigBillsFan said:

The modern NFL isn't like the 90's where a guy could develop. The salary cap and social media changed everything.

 

True. QB's don't sit and learn any more. The Mahomes and Rodgers examples are rare.

 

But Allen is playing and developing along the way.

 

Again:

 

2018- Games 1-6:    61.8

2018- Games 7-12:  72.6

2019- Games 1-8:    82.9

2019- Games 9-15:  88.8

 

And that's just him developing as a passer. We all know what he brings to the game as an athlete too. 

 

[BigBillsFan]

5 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Sounds like you are very down on Allen if you are willing to pass on Allen's upside for a better version of Case Keenum.

 

I like Minshew as a Case Keenum/ Ryan Fitzpatrick type. But why commit to a guy that doesn't have a high ceiling? Even if Minshew is the better QB at this moment which I think is debatable. But for arugments sake say he is. I still take Allen based on upside alone. Especially when you factor in Allen being the most un-ready QB to come out of the draft in a long time and he's already improving not just season over season but when you break his seasons down into halves or quarters he continues to make consistent improvements.

 

Allen's QB rating his first two years broken down by half seasons

 

2018- Games 1-6:    61.8

2018- Games 7-12:  72.6

2019- Games 1-8:    82.9

2019- Games 9-15:  88.8

 

Can't really ask for more than that out of a QB that some thought had no business being drafted on day 1 because of a lack of readiness. 

 

Minshew QB rating broken down:

 

2019- Games 1-7:   95.7

2019- Games 8-14: 87.0

 

If you threw out the week 17 game for Minshew (which was a good game for him statistically) his rating in games 8-13 would have been 83.4 A significant drop off from how he started the season before teams had a lot of film on him. Of course that's not fair so I included it in the original comparison. But it is fair to question how motivated that Colts defense was that day to be playing the final meaningless regular season game on the road. Especially considering Minshew had struggled quite a bit leading up to that game.

 

Thanks for the thoughtful reply. I think the problem is you took out the last game purposefully because it would make some of your analysis void which you admit. I don't think you can estimate how motivated a professional team is, you have to give him credit for the game. It would be like you removing the Dallas game from Allen's analysis, it wouldn't make sense.

 

Nevertheless Allen played poorly overall in the 2nd half of the season. Minshew, it could be argued, also played a poor 2nd half. But if you add the game you removed he still had a better rating than Allen as a rookie. He threw for more yards than Allen and if you compare the last 2 of the last 3 games Minshew is trending up, Allen down.

 

Your next question is a fair one: why would I want a better version of Case Keenum over a guy (Allen) who appears to have the talent of unlimited potential. My reasoning is a guy who passes well from the pocket has a better chance of improving than the guy who has to improvise. One is more of a known quantity with more reps from the same position, while the other is instinctual leading to inconsistency. Also, I believe the guy who threw for over 5,000 yards in college in 1 season knows how to generate offense with his arm, Allen has never proven that.

 

He's never hit 60% completions (which I admit isn't the biggest thing), but he doesn't throw for much yardage, even in the Dallas game he didn't. That tells me in the modern NFL in a shoot-out he's drawing the .22 and they are pulling out the 44 magnum. If we're in a game like the Chiefs against the Texans and we're down 28 in the 2nd quarter with this play we're never coming back. Mahomes had a ton of drops in that game, and they still did it.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 minute ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

Thanks for the thoughtful reply. I think the problem is you took out the last game purposefully because it would make some of your analysis void which you admit.

 

Whoa! Hold on. The last game for Minshew is there. No reason to leave it out as even with that good last game he clearly had a decline from first half of season to last half of season. Down from 95.0 to 87.0.

 

I only mention that we should consider the odd circumstance of Minshew suddenly having a great game to finish the season in a meaningless game at home when he had a number of bad games leading up to it. And pointed out how is drop off from first half of season to last half of season could actually even be more dramatic. But the true stat for Minshew is there. 

[78thealltimegreat]

20 hours ago, BillsFan2313 said:

 

Stop watching games, and following the team. If you can't see they are on the right path, then why care? Hang it up. 

He’s a troll he’s not even really a bills fan 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

16 minutes ago, BigBillsFan said:

He's never hit 60% completions (which I admit isn't the biggest thing), but he doesn't throw for much yardage, even in the Dallas game he didn't. That tells me in the modern NFL in a shoot-out he's drawing the .22 and they are pulling out the 44 magnum. If we're in a game like the Chiefs against the Texans and we're down 28 in the 2nd quarter with this play we're never coming back. Mahomes had a ton of drops in that game, and they still did it.

 

Yardage can be about team philosophy. For whatever reason it seems ever since Jim Kelly retired we are all about running the ball. Even today in a pass happy league. But with regards to Minshew he actually lost both games he threw for over 300 yards. So yeah yardage is not really a requirement. And in 9 out of 15 games for Allen last year he threw for 60% completion or better. Minshew only achieved that in 6 out of 14 games. Yet Minshew some how ended up 2 percentage points better than Allen on the season. One of those things I guess where the really bad games even if they are fewer can bring the overall stats down. But if they are few and far between is it really a bad thing? Just suck it up, maybe take the rare L and move on. 

[YoloinOhio]

Ghosts tend to stand about 12 yards deep 

 

 

[PromoTheRobot]

Josh Allen never did this, Dan.

 

 

Dan's been busy P-O'ing lots of folks.

 

 

[BigBillsFan]

10 hours ago, Doc said:

 

Allen had more total TDs and they were about the same in total yards.  And Minshew threw the ball more even though he played fewer games.

 

As for Minshew, as a 6th round pick, he'll be looking for that huge payday in 2 years, i.e. a year before Josh.

 

They were not the same in total yards. Minshew still had more (but barely) and played in 2 less games. Allen only played the 1st drive in the 16th game and Minshew only started 12. Per game he had more yards rushing and passing. 

 

If Minshew started every game he would have had over 4,000 yards, over 420 yards rushing, and 26 TDs thrown.

 

The point is he was more efficient of a passer.

 

Agreed on the looking for the big payday in 2 years, but if he does well he'll deserve it.

 

The same is true for Josh. He does well he'll deserve it as well. I hope he does.

Edited May 29, 2020 by BigBillsFan

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

5 hours ago, BigBillsFan said:

The point is he was more efficient of a passer.

 

He also became a less efficient passer over the course of the season. Josh became a more efficient passer over the course of the season against elite defenses in Baltimore, New England and Pittsburgh. 

 

Hats off to Minshew for his great start to the season but by the end of the season he was clearly not playing any better than Allen. Credit to Allen for improving? Or discredit Minshew for tailing off? Maybe both? But at the end of the day they were the same player in the second half of the season. So that is why I see them more as equals. 

 

Now Minshew was a true rookie. Allen in year two. But Minshew had far more experience and readiness coming out of college. So one could argue a year 2 Allen is on the same level of a rookie Minshew. Again a wash?

 

So then it comes down to other abilities and potential. Both seem to have equal ball security issues. Both are athletic but I think most would agree Allen is on another level. Lamar Jackson is in a tier by himself and then probably Allen and Murray in Tier 2 and tier 3 would be the other athletic QB's like Watson, Wilson, Minshew.  

 

One of the biggest thing to see out of Allen in year 3 is what happens with his deep ball? He was decent with it in his rookie season and downright terrible last year. If he can find his deep ball again and improve those numbers he can take another jump in yards and completion percentage and overall rating in year 3. Seems unlikely he will be as bad as he was last year. So we should see an improvement. Question will be how much.

[Billl]

1 hour ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

He also became a less efficient passer over the course of the season. Josh became a more efficient passer over the course of the season against elite defenses in Baltimore, New England and Pittsburgh. 

This is patently untrue.

Josh’s ratings in those games were 62.6, 65.2, and 102.7.  
Minshew’s ratings in his last 3 games were 102.8, 72.1, and 106.2.