What if it takes highest paid player in the NFL to resign Allen?

[Steve Billieve]

44 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

Paying top 10 Qbs a ton of money is the trend and it wont change. 

 

If Allen jumps to middle of the pack this year, (real progress) pick up the 5th year option.  If he jumps to the top 10 in year at the end of year 4 (more real progress) you sign him long term to a big time deal.   I'd have zero problem with that route.   Pay the man his money and lets win some championships. 

 

If he fails to make that jump this year, no 5th year option.  Bring in a solid vet, or if Fromm shows he's capable, you have a qb battle for the starter heading into year 4.  No more free ride or benefit of the doubt, make Allen earn it or lose it. 

 

I believe he's come to a crossroad.  If he loses out, offer him a back up contract or let him walk. 

 

This team is ready for the next step in its evolution. Without a franchise guy we are wasting the rest of our talent. Our window is the next 3 years to put it all together and compete for actual titles. 

 

Yeah, I agree completely, that's how it should be done. If Allen improves we should try to sign him, and if they like where he's headed the sooner the better.  I just don't think a fringe "top 10" QB is 40 mil/year (currently).  QB contracts are so big now that you can't really make a mistake and recover, you're talking about an entire rebuild. 

 

If we actually do sign Allen long term after 4 we won't have to pay record money.

[GunnerBill]

8 hours ago, Steve Billieve said:

QB contracts are so big now that you can't really make a mistake and recover, you're talking about an entire rebuild. 

 

 

See I just don't believe this is true.

 

Let's take a couple of examples - the first two picks in the 2016 NFL Draft - Carson Wentz and Jared Goff. Both signed big contracts last offseason (after 3 years in the league) to much gnashing of teeth from the "Quarterbacks are so expensive!!" crowd.

 

Wentz signed a 4 year extension that pays him $128m, $32m apy, $66.5m guaranteed.

Goff signed a 4 year extension that pays him $134m, $33.5m apy, $57m guaranteed.

 

Goff became the tied 3rd (with Rodgers) best paid QB in the NFL and Went became the 5th best paid. The way both of those extensions were constructed were, in essence to guarantee every penny left on their rookie deals (ie. the money in their 4th year and the money in their 5th year option). Then the first year of the new extensions (ie 2021 are essentially fully guaranteed too) leaving just some amortised signing bonus as the guarantees on those contracts beyond 2021.

 

The Rams can get out of Goff's deal after that season for $31m in dead cap (that is a cut if they could find a trade partner that halves the cap hit and unless he really sucks for two years he would be attractive for a team looking to trade because he'd be bringing a reasonable contract with him with the Rams taking the $17.5m hit) which while not a small number, if designated as a post June cut and therefore spread over two years means a maximum single year cap hit of $22m. I think something pretty drastic would have to happen for the Rams to be sick of Goff by then even though I know a lot of fans really think he sucks (he doesn't). If they keep him through 2022 they can get out for $8.6m dead cap.

 

The Eagles have structured Wentz's deal to give them even more flexibility. They can get out after 2021 for $24.5m with no single year of dead cap hit bigger than $15.5m. If they keep him an extra year they can get out for $15m total and no single year hit bigger than $9m.

 

None of those number are numbers that necessitate a total rebuild. They are numbers that a clever cap manager can absorb while continuing to field a competitive team. The cap is more flexible than most fans think it is remains my point. You can use money from as many years into the future as your players are willing to extend for. The reason this used to be much more an issue for BUFFALO and I think is clouding the thinking of some fans on these issues is the Bills were a cash to cap team for a number of years under Ralph because they couldn't afford to manage contracts in the way that provides for the most team flexibility. The way you do NFL contracts these days is you load the guarantees in early and you have big (but unguaranteed) numbers late. That way if the guy is still producing into those later years of the deal you are in a great spot to move money around his deal, reduce his hit in exchange for extra guarantees and if he isn't you can get out for numbers that don't kill your cap. You can't do that when you are cash to cap because you are not able to frontload guarantees in the same way (because you simply can't afford to give Carson Wentz $17m up front on the day he signed).

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

See I just don't believe this is true.

 

Let's take a couple of examples - the first two picks in the 2016 NFL Draft - Carson Wentz and Jared Goff. Both signed big contracts last offseason (after 3 years in the league) to much gnashing of teeth from the "Quarterbacks are so expensive!!" crowd.

 

Wentz signed a 4 year extension that pays him $128m, $32m apy, $66.5m guaranteed.

Goff signed a 4 year extension that pays him $134m, $33.5m apy, $57m guaranteed.

 

Goff became the tied 3rd (with Rodgers) best paid QB in the NFL and Went became the 5th best paid. The way both of those extensions were constructed were, in essence to guarantee every penny left on their rookie deals (ie. the money in their 4th year and the money in their 5th year option). Then the first year of the new extensions (ie 2021 are essentially fully guaranteed too) leaving just some amortised signing bonus as the guarantees on those contracts beyond 2021.

 

The Rams can get out of Goff's deal after that season for $31m in dead cap (that is a cut if they could find a trade partner that halves the cap hit and unless he really sucks for two years he would be attractive for a team looking to trade because he'd be bringing a reasonable contract with him with the Rams taking the $17.5m hit) which while not a small number, if designated as a post June cut and therefore spread over two years means a maximum single year cap hit of $22m. I think something pretty drastic would have to happen for the Rams to be sick of Goff by then even though I know a lot of fans really think he sucks (he doesn't). If they keep him through 2022 they can get out for $8.6m dead cap.

 

The Eagles have structured Wentz's deal to give them even more flexibility. They can get out after 2021 for $24.5m with no single year of dead cap hit bigger than $15.5m. If they keep him an extra year they can get out for $15m total and no single year hit bigger than $9m.

 

None of those number are numbers that necessitate a total rebuild. They are numbers that a clever cap manager can absorb while continuing to field a competitive team. The cap is more flexible than most fans think it is remains my point. You can use money from as many years into the future as your players are willing to extend for. The reason this used to be much more an issue for BUFFALO and I think is clouding the thinking of some fans on these issues is the Bills were a cash to cap team for a number of years under Ralph because they couldn't afford to manage contracts in the way that provides for the most team flexibility. The way you do NFL contracts these days is you load the guarantees in early and you have big (but unguaranteed) numbers late. That way if the guy is still producing into those later years of the deal you are in a great spot to move money around his deal, reduce his hit in exchange for extra guarantees and if he isn't you can get out for numbers that don't kill your cap. You can't do that when you are cash to cap because you are not able to frontload guarantees in the same way (because you simply can't afford to give Carson Wentz $17m up front on the day he signed).

You’re looking at the dead cap numbers wrong.  Wentz’s dead cap would be $59.2M in 2021.  The $24.5M is the amount of dead cap over his expected $34.7M cap number for that season.  Goff’s is the same.  $67M dead cap in 2021.  $31.7M in addition to $34.3M expected cap hit. 
 

These deals are absolutely crippling to get out of at that point.  It can be done, but it’ll hurt badly.  Realistically when you do a deal like those you are committing to your QB for 5 years.

 

Wentz Spotrac

 

Goff Spotrac

Edited May 28, 2020 by BarleyNY

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

You’re looking at the dead cap numbers wrong.  Wentz’s dead cap would be $59.2M after 2021.  The $24.5M is the amount of dead cap over his expected $34.7M cap number for that season.  Goff’s is the same.  These deals are absolutely crippling to get out of at that point.  It can be done, but it’ll hurt badly.  Realistically when you do a deal like those you are committing to your QB for 5 years.  

 

I think you are looking at it wrong. $59.2 is to get out BEFORE 2021. 

[BarleyNY]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think you are looking at it wrong. $59.2 is to get out BEFORE 2021. 

Oh. I thought that’s what you meant.  Sorry. 
Wentz would have a dead cap hit of $24.5M before 2022 and Goff would have a dead cap hit of $32.7 before the 2022 season. 

Edited May 28, 2020 by BarleyNY

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, BarleyNY said:

Oh. I thought that’s what you meant. 

 

I pretty clearly say after in both case... but no worries.

[BarleyNY]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I pretty clearly say after in both case... but no worries.

Yup. You did. 

 

[GunnerBill]

12 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

Oh. I thought that’s what you meant.  Sorry. 
Wentz would have a dead cap hit of $24.5M before 2022 and Goff would have a dead cap hit of $32.7 before the 2022 season. 

 

Yea I think the Goff number is wrong. I know that is what Spotrac says but I think they have counted the $1.8m restructure bonus once too often. There would be three in play (2022, 2023, 2024) and I think they have counted it 4 times. So I think it is actually $30.9m. 

 

EDIT: and yes... I am sad enough to have been studying the contract details and checking Sptrac's working. 

Edited May 28, 2020 by GunnerBill

[dogbyte]

Look at the Flacco contract, he got a huge deal which destroyed the Ravens team. They had to let a lot of players walk, the team was never the same. Football is a team sport, a great qb with no team around him does not work in the NFL. Teams have to get a balanced result. Teams can not have a few players taking up 50% of the cap and winning constantly. Also the cap will not go up all the time.

[BarleyNY]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea I think the Goff number is wrong. I know that is what Spotrac says but I think they have counted the $1.8m restructure bonus once too often. There would be three in play (2022, 2023, 2024) and I think they have counted it 4 times. So I think it is actually $30.9m. 

 

EDIT: and yes... I am sad enough to have been studying the contract details and checking Sptrac's working. 

Yeah, I’ve done that too.  Their available cap space figures were a mess for awhile. 
 

Back to the topic at hand though.  I don’t want to downplay the impact of these kinds of extensions on a team.  Using Goff as an example (and round numbers), he was set to make about $4M in new money in 2019.  His fifth year option in 2019 would’ve been about $23M.  Franchise tag in 2020 would’ve been less than $28M.  So $4M for one season, $27M for two seasons or $55M for three with no future commitments.  

The extension changed that to $85M for three years, $110M for four years, $135 for five or $161 for six.  Being wrong about how good your QB is can be costly not only in terms of cap space/dollars spent, but also in terms of tying your team to that QB.  From a player personnel perspective the only worse thing than not having a franchise QB is not having a franchise QB and paying a guy like you do.  You’re going to be stuck with that guy at FQB rates for four years (and that’s if he’s only on the team for three).

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

Yeah, I’ve done that too.  Their available cap space figures were a mess for awhile. 
 

Back to the topic at hand though.  I don’t want to downplay the impact of these kinds of extensions on a team.  Using Goff as an example (and round numbers), he was set to make about $4M in new money in 2019.  His fifth year option in 2019 would’ve been about $23M.  Franchise tag in 2020 would’ve been less than $28M.  So $4M for one season, $27M for two seasons or $55M for three with no future commitments.  

The extension changed that to $85M for three years, $110M for four years, $135 for five or $161 for six.  Being wrong about how good your QB is can be costly not only in terms of cap space/dollars spent, but also in terms of tying your team to that QB.  From a player personnel perspective the only worse thing than not having a franchise QB is not having a franchise QB and paying a guy like you do.  You’re going to be stuck with that guy at FQB rates for four years (and that’s if he’s only on the team for three).

 

Yea that is true. But I think you rarely find out he isn't your guy in year 1 of that. The most, and I mean most, you are stuck paying a guy who after 3 or 4 years you thought was your guy and it turns out isn't is 2 years. And in most cases it is 1. It doesn't truly require a team to rip it down and rebuild. 

[BarleyNY]

11 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea that is true. But I think you rarely find out he isn't your guy in year 1 of that. The most, and I mean most, you are stuck paying a guy who after 3 or 4 years you thought was your guy and it turns out isn't is 2 years. And in most cases it is 1. It doesn't truly require a team to rip it down and rebuild. 

No, a full year down would not be necessary, but that QB is going to prevent the team from retaining some other talent whether you’re right or wrong about him.  The real issue is when you see teams ignore some real concerns and talk themselves into believing they have their guy when they should be more cautious.  Sometimes that’s because the GM and HC expect to be out the door anyway if that QB doesn’t pan out.  You need a strong owner who understands that and can roll with that situation.  Oh, and if you do decide that your starting QB isn’t the guy and let him walk, then you gotta hope it wasn’t Drew Brees.  It’s a tough situation to be sure. 

[Billl]

23 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

Yeah, I’ve done that too.  Their available cap space figures were a mess for awhile. 
 

Back to the topic at hand though.  I don’t want to downplay the impact of these kinds of extensions on a team.  Using Goff as an example (and round numbers), he was set to make about $4M in new money in 2019.  His fifth year option in 2019 would’ve been about $23M.  Franchise tag in 2020 would’ve been less than $28M.  So $4M for one season, $27M for two seasons or $55M for three with no future commitments.  

The extension changed that to $85M for three years, $110M for four years, $135 for five or $161 for six.  Being wrong about how good your QB is can be costly not only in terms of cap space/dollars spent, but also in terms of tying your team to that QB.  From a player personnel perspective the only worse thing than not having a franchise QB is not having a franchise QB and paying a guy like you do.  You’re going to be stuck with that guy at FQB rates for four years (and that’s if he’s only on the team for three).

Like just about every other problem in the NFL, drafting a star QB and paying him a rookie contract is the solution.  If Goff craters, the team will suck next season no matter what he’s being paid.  If the Rams draft the next big thing to replace him, they can afford to keep him around on his contract for a while because their total outlay for the QB position will be manageable.

[GunnerBill]

19 minutes ago, Billl said:

Like just about every other problem in the NFL, drafting a star QB and paying him a rookie contract is the solution.  If Goff craters, the team will suck next season no matter what he’s being paid.  If the Rams draft the next big thing to replace him, they can afford to keep him around on his contract for a while because their total outlay for the QB position will be manageable.

 

Exactly. That is my point. Missing on a QB hurts. Finding out you have missed after paying him hurts more. But ultimately it is BAD QB play that hurts.  It is possible to structure the contracts the way the Rams and Eagles have done where you can get out after three years of the contract and only two years of the really big money (and their are particularly that because they were 1 and 2 in the draft so their options are expensive accordingly) and there is nothing to stop you drafting another one in the meantime. It really doesn't necessitate a full rebuild if you do it right. 

[Kirby Jackson]

Not to totally derail the conversation but if the Bills decide “Allen isn’t the guy” I fully expect them to trade for Matt Stafford. I see, little to no chance,  that this particular group plays with a young QB. The roster is too good.

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Not to totally derail the conversation but if the Bills decide “Allen isn’t the guy” I fully expect them to trade for Matt Stafford. I see, little to no chance,  that this particular group plays with a young QB. The roster is too good.

I would not be opposed to that idea unless there's some can't miss guy in the draft. 

 

I actually thought they were going to go after Cousins when the Redskins cut him loose and the team now is WAY better now.

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Not to totally derail the conversation but if the Bills decide “Allen isn’t the guy” I fully expect them to trade for Matt Stafford. I see, little to no chance,  that this particular group plays with a young QB. The roster is too good.

 

Agree. Stafford would make a lot of sense.

7 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I would not be opposed to that idea unless there's some can't miss guy in the draft. 

 

I actually thought they were going to go after Cousins when the Redskins cut him loose and the team now is WAY better now.

 

Cousins could even come back into the equation if they decide Josh is not the guy after 2021 rather than after 2020. So could a certain guy up in Green Bay....

 

I think this is all academic though. I fully expect Josh to be good enough for them to pick up the option next spring and extend Josh the following Summer. 

Edited May 28, 2020 by GunnerBill

[Kirby Jackson]

27 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I would not be opposed to that idea unless there's some can't miss guy in the draft. 

 

I actually thought they were going to go after Cousins when the Redskins cut him loose and the team now is WAY better now.

 

22 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Agree. Stafford would make a lot of sense.

 

Cousins could even come back into the equation if they decide Josh is not the guy after 2021 rather than after 2020. So could a certain guy up in Green Bay....

 

I think this is all academic though. I fully expect Josh to be good enough for them to pick up the option next spring and extend Josh the following Summer. 

I expect Josh to become the guy too. With that being said, I guess the point that I was trying to make is that we should be prepared for a large QB contract either way. I don’t think that it will be a scrub(ish) vet or a young guy. We aren’t going to waste this window HOPING to find a QB. We are either going with Josh or Stafford (or Cousins even).

[Steve Billieve]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

See I just don't believe this is true.

 

Let's take a couple of examples - the first two picks in the 2016 NFL Draft - Carson Wentz and Jared Goff. Both signed big contracts last offseason (after 3 years in the league) to much gnashing of teeth from the "Quarterbacks are so expensive!!" crowd.

 

Wentz signed a 4 year extension that pays him $128m, $32m apy, $66.5m guaranteed.

Goff signed a 4 year extension that pays him $134m, $33.5m apy, $57m guaranteed.

 

Goff became the tied 3rd (with Rodgers) best paid QB in the NFL and Went became the 5th best paid. The way both of those extensions were constructed were, in essence to guarantee every penny left on their rookie deals (ie. the money in their 4th year and the money in their 5th year option). Then the first year of the new extensions (ie 2021 are essentially fully guaranteed too) leaving just some amortised signing bonus as the guarantees on those contracts beyond 2021.

 

The Rams can get out of Goff's deal after that season for $31m in dead cap (that is a cut if they could find a trade partner that halves the cap hit and unless he really sucks for two years he would be attractive for a team looking to trade because he'd be bringing a reasonable contract with him with the Rams taking the $17.5m hit) which while not a small number, if designated as a post June cut and therefore spread over two years means a maximum single year cap hit of $22m. I think something pretty drastic would have to happen for the Rams to be sick of Goff by then even though I know a lot of fans really think he sucks (he doesn't). If they keep him through 2022 they can get out for $8.6m dead cap.

 

The Eagles have structured Wentz's deal to give them even more flexibility. They can get out after 2021 for $24.5m with no single year of dead cap hit bigger than $15.5m. If they keep him an extra year they can get out for $15m total and no single year hit bigger than $9m.

 

None of those number are numbers that necessitate a total rebuild. They are numbers that a clever cap manager can absorb while continuing to field a competitive team. The cap is more flexible than most fans think it is remains my point. You can use money from as many years into the future as your players are willing to extend for. The reason this used to be much more an issue for BUFFALO and I think is clouding the thinking of some fans on these issues is the Bills were a cash to cap team for a number of years under Ralph because they couldn't afford to manage contracts in the way that provides for the most team flexibility. The way you do NFL contracts these days is you load the guarantees in early and you have big (but unguaranteed) numbers late. That way if the guy is still producing into those later years of the deal you are in a great spot to move money around his deal, reduce his hit in exchange for extra guarantees and if he isn't you can get out for numbers that don't kill your cap. You can't do that when you are cash to cap because you are not able to frontload guarantees in the same way (because you simply can't afford to give Carson Wentz $17m up front on the day he signed).

 

I would say those are two examples of doing it right. I should have been more clear, I meant that if you sign some silly record setting deal for 40/ and over a 100+ guaranteed, it gets pretty tough to walk back.  I have no problem with paying a QB what they're worth, but if you overpay because you just can't let your "franchise" guy go things can get dicey fast and you have zero flexibility. 

QBs aren't too expensive.  They're just too expensive to make bad deals with.

You can overpay a guy like Spain no big deal.