What if it takes highest paid player in the NFL to resign Allen?

[GoBills808]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

He wasn't a free agent. He was at the end of his 4th year going into his option year and he got the 3rd highest QB salary in the league. He signed for right around what his market was. If he had waited out the 5th year option he could have cashed in Joe Flacco style. But other than Flacco not sure who else has gone that way. Would have been a brave call but  it would have worked for him. 

He signed for what was a completely reasonable ask- more APY than Matt Ryan who happened to play for a divisional rival. The original question was someone asking if anyone could think of a QB who gave his team a discount on a second contract and that's Newton. Gettleman's said it, Panthers fans acknowledge it also.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

He signed for what was a completely reasonable ask- more APY than Matt Ryan who happened to play for a divisional rival. The original question was someone asking if anyone could think of a QB who gave his team a discount on a second contract and that's Newton. Gettleman's said it, Panthers fans acknowledge it also.

 

Gettleman said he did a deal that got his QB on the cheap? Gee, I wonder what his motivation for that was? 

 

Newton's second contract was right at his market value. It was not a hometown discount. 

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Gettleman said he did a deal that got his QB on the cheap? Gee, I wonder what his motivation for that was? 

 

Newton's second contract was right at his market value. It was not a hometown discount. 

Well ok then. 

[boater]

16 hours ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

Why are people scared to pay a player if they get really good?  Baffles me 

 

If you mega-pay a player (Allen in this hypothetical), and also overpay 2or 3 players you end up in salary cap jail. Jailed teams are less competitive.

 

Rookie contracts are very salary cap friendly. That's why the draft is so critical to success. A good draft gives you financial flexibility to pick up assets in free agency.

 

To the OP: my opinion is that in 2022 if Josh Allen is lighting up the league, back up the Brinks truck to his house.

[Kirby Jackson]

6 minutes ago, boater said:

 

If you mega-pay a player (Allen in this hypothetical), and also overpay 2or 3 players you end up in salary cap jail. Jailed teams are less competitive.

 

Rookie contracts are very salary cap friendly. That's why the draft is so critical to success. A good draft gives you financial flexibility to pick up assets in free agency.

 

To the OP: my opinion is that in 2022 if Josh Allen is lighting up the league, back up the Brinks truck to his house.

I guess that my philosophy is a little different when it comes to the draft and the cap. Good teams are comprised of stars. You have to pay stars. It is the middle and back of your roster that gets replaced with draft picks not your expensive stars. You let guys like Long go and draft a guy in the 4th or 5th to play that role. You let a guy like a mid-30’s Hughes go and slide Epenesa into that slot. You pay your stars in their prime. 

[papazoid]

josh the highest paid QB in NFL ?? 

 

 very unlikely....especially as i dont see him ever being in top 10

 

hypothetical.....would you pay any QB $45-50 MIl/yr ....risk of injury is so great to put so many eggs in one basket

 

i think you will see teams start to invest more first round draft choices on QB's and work with a rookie deal salary cap $

[GreggTX]

We should wait to see if he's any good first. He hasn't been so far. The real question is should we exercise his 5th year option?

Edited May 27, 2020 by GreggTX

[Prospector]

18 hours ago, Steve Billieve said:

So you would sign Allen as the highest paid QB without him improving from where he is currently at?

You think the Cowboys are winning Champtionships with Dak?

I’m thinking ‘Steve don’t Billieve’ be a better name. 

6 hours ago, FireChans said:

That list of FA’s is kinda funny when you think about how many of them are back up and rotational guys. Nice to have, but only a handful are difference makers at the NFL level.

 

The key point you are missing is by tearing down the entire roster to fix the cap hell that didn’t really exist, the new regime created enough holes that allowed the roster to fill out with all of those guys. You don’t need to sign a bunch of DL players if you have DL players on the roster. If you trade or cut all your DT’s or LB’s, then yeah you gotta sign them.

 

Either way, a ton of the players on your list are luxuries. Good teams don’t win with great depth at every position. They win with star talent. Klein and Matalevich may be better than all the back up LB’s on the Chiefs but that won’t be why we win a Super Bowl.

Is there an option on this board to change a profile name? I’m thinking this name has come to fruition and past due for a new one... or I may be wrong

[Steve Billieve]

16 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

Am I understanding you correctly? 

 

You want to let a legit franchise Qb walk because you'd  rather have our starting Qb on a rookie salary?

 

Taking a lot of heat so I guess I'll elaborate/dig a deeper hole. 

 

I guess it depends what you mean by franchise QB.  

IMO middle tier QBs are grossly overpaid, and they are the surest way to set yourself up to be a playoff bubble team at best with no real chance of going all the way.

I don't think there's a big difference between the perceived 10th best QB compared to the 20th best QB. 

 

Even the contracts seem to bear this out.  There are 18 QBs making 20+ mil a year.  I bet every team that signed one of those thought they were getting a top 10 guy, but with the emergence of Watson, Mahomes, and Jackson some aren't even in the top 20 (and that's before you count the potential of guys like Allen, Darnold, Tua, Burrow, Mayfield, Jones, etc)

 

In any given year I think there are usually 5 QBs who are just better than the rest, and they are usually the same QBs year in and year out.  Paying someone big money who obviously isn't in that tier is a mistake imo.  The league is filled with average replaceable QBs on bloated salaries.  

 

Seems like the consensus rank for Dak is around 8 (+/- 2), where as Allen is usually mid 20s.  That's a huge difference, but imo neither player is really ensuring their teams success or holding them back. Dak = 40 mil vs. Allen, Diggs, Morse, Hughes = 40 mil

 

IMO Dak is not in that top 5, so if he wants to hold out for 40 mil like it appears I would definitely let him walk.  I'd rather go with Fitz (4 mil) or Foles (8 mil) or Dalton (3 mil) and try to replace with a rookie. I get we've been in QB purgatory for too long, but it's better than QB hell.

 

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

1 hour ago, GreggTX said:

We should wait to see if he's any good first. He hasn't been so far. The real question is should we exercise his 5th year option?

 

I think the Bills should keep with their tradition of a QB every three years...it's really worked out well for us.

 

 

			Passing
	Player	Gms	Att	Cmp	Pct	Yds	Int	TD	Lg	Rating
1.	Jim Kelly, 1986-96	160	4,779	2,874	60.1	35,467	175	237	84t	84.4
2.	Joe Ferguson, 1973-84	164	4,166	2,188	52.5	27,590	190	181	92t	68.9
3.	Jack Kemp, 1962-67,69	88	2,240	1,039	46.4	15,134	132	77	94t	55.8
4.	Ryan Fitzpatrick, 2009-12	55	1,742	1,041	59.8	11,654	64	80	98t	79.8
5.	Drew Bledsoe, 2002-04	48	1,531	905	59.1	10,151	43	55	73t	79.2
6.	Tyrod Taylor, 2015-18	44	1,236	774	62.6	8,857	16	51	84t	92.5
7.	Doug Flutie, 1998-00	39	1,063	598	56.3	7,582	30	47	84t	81.7
8.	Dennis Shaw, 1970-73	45	916	485	52.9	6,286	67	35	75t	57.1
9.	J.P. Losman, 2004-08	42	941	558	59.3	6,211	34	33	87t	75.6
10.	Trent Edwards, 2007-10	34	878	535	60.9	5,739	27	25	70t	76.8
11.	Josh Allen, 2018-19	28	781	440	56.3	5,163	21	30	75t	78.2
12.	Rob Johnson, 1998-01	30	663	401	60.5	4,798	17	27	74t	85.5
13.	E.J. Manuel, 2013-16	28	547	319	58.3	3,502	15	19	80t	77.5
14.	Todd Collins, 1995-97	28	519	284	54.7	3,218	19	16	95t	68.5
15.	Kyle Orton, 2014	12	447	287	64.2	3,018	10	18	84	87.8
16.	Alex Van Pelt, 1994-03	32	477	262	54.9	2,985	24	16	80t	64.1
17.	Frank Reich, 1985-94	93	377	222	58.9	2,540	12	18	63t	81.9
18.	Daryle Lamonica, 1963-66	56	353	150	42.5	2,499	23	16	93	55.0
19.	Johnny Green, 1960-61	18	354	145	41.0	2,170	15	16	70t	59.2
20.	Warren Rabb, 1961-62	23	251	101	40.2	1,782	16	15	76t	58.6
21.	Vince Ferragamo, 1985	10	287	149	51.9	1,677	17	5	48	50.8
22.	Bruce Mathison, 1985	10	228	113	49.6	1,635	14	4	60t	53.5
23.	Kelly Holcomb, 2005-06	10	230	155	67.4	1,509	8	10	65	85.6
24.	Gary Marangi, 1974-76	19	283	104	36.7	1,373	21	12	64t	36.1
25.	Dan Darragh, 1968-70	17	296	127	42.9	1,353	22	4	53	30.4
26.	James Harris, 1969-72	18	189	90	47.6	1,120	11	5	62	51.0
27.	Thaddeus Lewis, 2013-14	6	157	93	59.2	1,092	3	4	57	81.0
28.	Tommy O'Connell, 1960-61	15	150	66	44.0	1,044	14	7	64	44.4
29.	M.C. Reynolds, 1961	12	181	83	45.9	1,004	13	2	52	37.2
30.	Matt Kofler, 1982-84	36	154	68	44.2	872	8	6	70t	53.8
31.	Joe Dufek, 1983-85	10	150	74	49.3	829	8	4	64t	52.9
32.	Richie Lucas, 1960-61	22	99	43	43.4	596	7	4	45	47.4
33.	Matt Barkley, 2018-19	3	76	42	55.3	591	3	2	47	72.9
34.	Nathan Peterman, 2017-18	8	130	68	52.3	548	12	3	26	32.5
35.	Derek Anderson, 2018-19	2	70	42	60.0	465	4	0	40	56.0
36.	Ed Rutkowski, 1963-68	83	102	41	40.2	380	6	0	37	26.6
37.	Kay Stephenson, 1968	10	79	29	36.7	364	7	4	55t	31.8
38.	Travis Brown, 2001,03	3	51	29	56.9	361	3	1	34	61.0
39.	Bill Munson, 1978-79	7	50	27	54.0	359	2	4	43	87.0
40.	Al Dorow, 1962	4	75	30	40.0	333	7	2	34	23.9
41.	Jeff Tuel, 2013-15	2	59	26	44.1	309	3	1	59t	45.1
42.	Tom Flores, 1967-69	17	74	27	36.5	291	9	0	59	9.3
43.	Brian Brohm, 2009-10	3	52	27	51.9	252	5	0	33	26.0
44.	Brian McClure, 1987	1	38	20	52.6	181	3	0	30	32.9
45.	Mike Taliaferro, 1972	5	33	16	48.5	176	4	1	24	35.2
46.	Willie Totten, 1987	2	33	13	39.4	155	2	2	37	49.4
47.	Billy Joe Hobert, 1997	2	30	17	56.7	133	2	0	20	40.0
48.	Dan Manucci, 1979-80,87	19	27	12	44.4	132	2	0	22	28.6
49.	O.J. Simpson, 1969-77	112	16	6	37.5	110	0	1	34	82.8
50.	Gale Gilbert, 1990-93	2	15	8	53.3	106	2	2	23	76.0

 

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[BillsNutHawaii]

20 hours ago, SydneyBillsFan said:

How about we just let him play out his pivotal third year with an improved offence against a stronger schedule of opponents and then evaluate his performance before hyperventilating over what we might do in year 4 or 5.

 

No! I’m wanna hyperventilate now.  And if you push me, I’m going to hold my breathe till I pass out! Don’t test me.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Not to worry.

 

Soon after someone else will be the next highest payed QB. 

[Kirby Jackson]

58 minutes ago, Steve Billieve said:

 

Taking a lot of heat so I guess I'll elaborate/dig a deeper hole. 

 

I guess it depends what you mean by franchise QB.  

IMO middle tier QBs are grossly overpaid, and they are the surest way to set yourself up to be a playoff bubble team at best with no real chance of going all the way.

I don't think there's a big difference between the perceived 10th best QB compared to the 20th best QB. 

 

Even the contracts seem to bear this out.  There are 18 QBs making 20+ mil a year.  I bet every team that signed one of those thought they were getting a top 10 guy, but with the emergence of Watson, Mahomes, and Jackson some aren't even in the top 20 (and that's before you count the potential of guys like Allen, Darnold, Tua, Burrow, Mayfield, Jones, etc)

 

In any given year I think there are usually 5 QBs who are just better than the rest, and they are usually the same QBs year in and year out.  Paying someone big money who obviously isn't in that tier is a mistake imo.  The league is filled with average replaceable QBs on bloated salaries.  

 

Seems like the consensus rank for Dak is around 8 (+/- 2), where as Allen is usually mid 20s.  That's a huge difference, but imo neither player is really ensuring their teams success or holding them back. Dak = 40 mil vs. Allen, Diggs, Morse, Hughes = 40 mil

 

IMO Dak is not in that top 5, so if he wants to hold out for 40 mil like it appears I would definitely let him walk.  I'd rather go with Fitz (4 mil) or Foles (8 mil) or Dalton (3 mil) and try to replace with a rookie. I get we've been in QB purgatory for too long, but it's better than QB hell.

 

I don’t necessarily agree with you but I applaud you for elaborating and defending your position. This place functions so much better when people explain “why” they feel a certain way. 

[Mango]

If we had to make the decision tomorrow, it is a very hard pass. I am not sure there is much disagreement on that. 

 

Outside of that, it is wait and see. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

21 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:

It's simple.  If you think he's a super bowl QB, you sign him.  If you don't, then you don't pay him at all and move on.

Sounds like we are backing up the Brinks truck then. Allen definitely has all the tools to be a super bowl MVP.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

20 hours ago, Dadonkadonk said:

At his current level of play? No. If he cracks the top 10 of QB play then you overpay to keep him because it would be very difficult to replace him. 

Most indications are that Josh is improving in most aspects of the game.  He still has a long way to go to be a top 10 guy.

With the supporting cast and defense, if he keeps the turnovers down this team should win 10 games and the division even with the schedule they have. 

 

Problem is, Allen is so unconventional and McDermott a little too conservative that I don't know that Allen will ever be a top 10 QB on paper by almost all metrics. But that's not to say he won't actually have the skills of a top 10 QB. 

 

Also, top 10 get's thrown around a little too loosely I think. Basically top 10 QB has grown to include any franchise QB which then gets stretched closer to top 16-18. 

20 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

So they either pay Josh Allen or shout "stop the world I want to get off" and go back to trying to convince themselves that you can win if you put a team around Kelly Holcomb, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tyrod Taylor. 

 

Just thinking of option B and the three guys you named makes me want to extend Allen to $100 million dollar deal now.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

13 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

EDIT: Just to return to the headline, of course if Josh becomes a top 10 guy they should pay him, even if he becomes the highest-paid. It's a cost of doing business intelligently.

 

 

And by what metric do we determine Allen is top 10? I love Allen. I think he is our future and will be worth a contract that could make him the highest paid. At the same time I am extremely doubtful he will be top 10 in traditionally meaningful QB stats. Passing yards? No chance. Completion percentage? No way. QB Rating? Probably not. Passing TD's? Unlikely.

 

Maybe total TD's and QBR?

 

The most meaningful stat might be wins. I don't care if his next two seasons are identical to his 2019 season. If we extend our playoff streak to 3 straight years I think he get's paid even if statistically he feels more like the 20th best QB. 

[KGun12TD]

Did Josh win the super bowl in those couple of years in your hypothetical? There is your answer! Ugh!!!

[TwistofFate]

2 hours ago, Steve Billieve said:

 

Taking a lot of heat so I guess I'll elaborate/dig a deeper hole. 

 

I guess it depends what you mean by franchise QB.  

IMO middle tier QBs are grossly overpaid, and they are the surest way to set yourself up to be a playoff bubble team at best with no real chance of going all the way.

I don't think there's a big difference between the perceived 10th best QB compared to the 20th best QB. 

 

Even the contracts seem to bear this out.  There are 18 QBs making 20+ mil a year.  I bet every team that signed one of those thought they were getting a top 10 guy, but with the emergence of Watson, Mahomes, and Jackson some aren't even in the top 20 (and that's before you count the potential of guys like Allen, Darnold, Tua, Burrow, Mayfield, Jones, etc)

 

In any given year I think there are usually 5 QBs who are just better than the rest, and they are usually the same QBs year in and year out.  Paying someone big money who obviously isn't in that tier is a mistake imo.  The league is filled with average replaceable QBs on bloated salaries.  

 

Seems like the consensus rank for Dak is around 8 (+/- 2), where as Allen is usually mid 20s.  That's a huge difference, but imo neither player is really ensuring their teams success or holding them back. Dak = 40 mil vs. Allen, Diggs, Morse, Hughes = 40 mil

 

IMO Dak is not in that top 5, so if he wants to hold out for 40 mil like it appears I would definitely let him walk.  I'd rather go with Fitz (4 mil) or Foles (8 mil) or Dalton (3 mil) and try to replace with a rookie. I get we've been in QB purgatory for too long, but it's better than QB hell.

 

Paying top 10 Qbs a ton of money is the trend and it wont change. 

 

If Allen jumps to middle of the pack this year, (real progress) pick up the 5th year option.  If he jumps to the top 10 in year at the end of year 4 (more real progress) you sign him long term to a big time deal.   I'd have zero problem with that route.   Pay the man his money and lets win some championships. 

 

If he fails to make that jump this year, no 5th year option.  Bring in a solid vet, or if Fromm shows he's capable, you have a qb battle for the starter heading into year 4.  No more free ride or benefit of the doubt, make Allen earn it or lose it. 

 

I believe he's come to a crossroad.  If he loses out, offer him a back up contract or let him walk. 

 

This team is ready for the next step in its evolution. Without a franchise guy we are wasting the rest of our talent. Our window is the next 3 years to put it all together and compete for actual titles. 

[ALLEN1QB]

No because Fromm will be the starting QB.