The Draft is a total crap shoot...

[FireChans]

4 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

It might seem like, or wind up being a good, or even great trade KJ but as I said, time will tell. We don't know how the rookies will turn out. Some might be superstars.

 

I remember clearly being told that I was "wrong" for thinking the Watkins trade was dumb. While I'm NOT calling this a dumb trade, I feel like I've earned the right to wait and see

But that’s just silly. What rookie that might be a superstar would you have wanted at our pick?

[Kirby Jackson]

8 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

It might seem like, or wind up being a good, or even great trade KJ but as I said, time will tell. We don't know how the rookies will turn out. Some might be superstars.

 

I remember clearly being told that I was "wrong" for thinking the Watkins trade was dumb. While I'm NOT calling this a dumb trade, I feel like I've earned the right to wait and see

The difference is Diggs is a proven commodity. If any of the other 3 get to his level we will call them a success. How long until they get there? The Bills window is right now. Even if one of those guys becomes great it was a good move. The risk and cost was greater than with Diggs. The chances are extremely long that all 3 end up better than Diggs. So it wouldn’t even be about trading up it would be about trading up (which cost more than Diggs) AND finding the guy that’s better. The juice was definitely not worth the squeeze which is why it made so much sense. If I’m wrong I’ll own it but the chances of looking back at this as a “bad deal” for the Bills are extremely slim (to none). 
 

Now if we want to judge any guys picked from 22 and after we are still assuming that we would have picked the right one if one ends up better. As an example, if Michael Pittman becomes a star we shouldn’t regret this trade unless he was going to be the selection not an option. It’s like the year that the Bills didn’t take Michael Thomas. They didn’t take Treadwell or Doctson either who went before Thomas. We can’t just retroactively select the most successful guy and say that’s what we should have done. You don’t get the benefit of hindsight while drafting. You do get the benefit of a resume though when trading for Diggs. 

[Nextmanup]

9 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

Here are the first six picks of the 2017 Draft class.

 

1.1  Myles Garrett  DE Browns

1.2  Mitch Trubisky  QB Bears

1.3  Solomon Thomas  DE 49ers

1.4  Leonard Fournette  RB Jaguars

1.5  Corey Davis  WR Titans

1.6  Jamal Adams  S Jets

 

Out of the first six picks at the top of the Draft that year, only Garrett and Adams have had their fifth year option exercised, and the Jets have Jamal Adams on the trade block right now. The other four have significantly underperformed their consensus Draft day projections.

 

Stefon Diggs was drafted in the 5th round, #146, in the 2015 Draft.  Who were the top three draft picks in 2015's Draft?  Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston, and Dante Fowler.  What do those three have in common?  None of them had their 5th year option exercised either. 

 

I'd rather take a surefire NFL talent like Diggs than roll the dice with a college player with potential.  As long as this franchise doesn't need a QB, I'm fine with Beane trading our first round pick every year for a talent like Diggs who is locked up on a team friendly contract. 

 

 

 

It is indeed a crap shoot.

That is why Rule #1 of drafting is to NEVER move up, unless it is for a top QB prospect you feel can't miss near the very top of the draft, and you need a QB.  Think Andrew Luck's consensus coming out of college.  

 

Rule #2: Move DOWN and acquire more picks.

 

More picks = greater chance of lucking into a great player.

 

I have to laugh when I read folks here discussing how "the pros" who do this for a living know how to find talent in the draft.

 

They do not.

 

 

[FireChans]

6 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

It is indeed a crap shoot.

That is why Rule #1 of drafting is to NEVER move up, unless it is for a top QB prospect you feel can't miss near the very top of the draft, and you need a QB.  Think Andrew Luck's consensus coming out of college.  

 

Rule #2: Move DOWN and acquire more picks.

 

More picks = greater chance of lucking into a great player.

 

I have to laugh when I read folks here discussing how "the pros" who do this for a living know how to find talent in the draft.

 

They do not.

 

 

Those rules are silly. Mahomes is the best QB in football, he wasn’t can’t miss, the Chiefs moved up and have already won a Super Bowl by doing so.

[BarleyNY]

9 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

Here are the first six picks of the 2017 Draft class.

 

1.1  Myles Garrett  DE Browns

1.2  Mitch Trubisky  QB Bears

1.3  Solomon Thomas  DE 49ers

1.4  Leonard Fournette  RB Jaguars

1.5  Corey Davis  WR Titans

1.6  Jamal Adams  S Jets

 

Out of the first six picks at the top of the Draft that year, only Garrett and Adams have had their fifth year option exercised, and the Jets have Jamal Adams on the trade block right now. The other four have significantly underperformed their consensus Draft day projections.

 

Stefon Diggs was drafted in the 5th round, #146, in the 2015 Draft.  Who were the top three draft picks in 2015's Draft?  Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston, and Dante Fowler.  What do those three have in common?  None of them had their 5th year option exercised either. 

 

I'd rather take a surefire NFL talent like Diggs than roll the dice with a college player with potential.  As long as this franchise doesn't need a QB, I'm fine with Beane trading our first round pick every year for a talent like Diggs who is locked up on a team friendly contract. 

 

 

 

That was also my reasoning as to why the trade for Diggs was a no brainer for us.  The hit rate for 1st rounders is about 50%.  The hit rate for finding an elite player with a 1st round pick is about 20%.  There is some good analytics work out there that shows that giving up a first round pick plus a market value contract for an elite player at an important position is virtually always the smart move.

[GunnerBill]

17 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

It is indeed a crap shoot.

That is why Rule #1 of drafting is to NEVER move up, unless it is for a top QB prospect you feel can't miss near the very top of the draft, and you need a QB.  Think Andrew Luck's consensus coming out of college.  

 

Rule #2: Move DOWN and acquire more picks.

 

More picks = greater chance of lucking into a great player.

 

I have to laugh when I read folks here discussing how "the pros" who do this for a living know how to find talent in the draft.

 

They do not.

 

 

 

Except the best do. 

[GoBills808]

21 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

It is indeed a crap shoot.

That is why Rule #1 of drafting is to NEVER move up, unless it is for a top QB prospect you feel can't miss near the very top of the draft, and you need a QB.  Think Andrew Luck's consensus coming out of college.  

 

Rule #2: Move DOWN and acquire more picks.

 

More picks = greater chance of lucking into a great player.

 

I have to laugh when I read folks here discussing how "the pros" who do this for a living know how to find talent in the draft.

 

They do not.

 

 

Have you looked at our drafts w/the new FO versus the Whaley years? That alone should tell you the bolded is wrong.

[Augie]

There is no salary cap for the FO or scouts. You need quality there, and I feel good about what we’re got. Nobody gets them all right, but you have to hit more than you miss. This is a big part of why the Bengals are.......the Bengals. You can’t compete on the cheap. 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

Have you looked at our drafts w/the new FO versus the Whaley years? That alone should tell you the bolded is wrong.

 

Yep. The best FOs are not always right. But they are less often wrong. 

[Shaw66]

29 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

The difference is Diggs is a proven commodity. If any of the other 3 get to his level we will call them a success. How long until they get there? The Bills window is right now. Even if one of those guys becomes great it was a good move. The risk and cost was greater than with Diggs. The chances are extremely long that all 3 end up better than Diggs. So it wouldn’t even be about trading up it would be about trading up (which cost more than Diggs) AND finding the guy that’s better. The juice was definitely not worth the squeeze which is why it made so much sense. If I’m wrong I’ll own it but the chances of looking back at this as a “bad deal” for the Bills are extremely slim (to none). 
 

Now if we want to judge any guys picked from 22 and after we are still assuming that we would have picked the right one if one ends up better. As an example, if Michael Pittman becomes a star we shouldn’t regret this trade unless he was going to be the selection not an option. It’s like the year that the Bills didn’t take Michael Thomas. They didn’t take Treadwell or Doctson either who went before Thomas. We can’t just retroactively select the most successful guy and say that’s what we should have done. You don’t get the benefit of hindsight while drafting. You do get the benefit of a resume though when trading for Diggs. 

I agree with you, completely.   I've said all along, getting Diggs said to Allen and Daboll and the o-line that it's now their job to win.   

 

I think McBeane always target 2021 as when the team would be able to compete for Super Bowls.   I think after the 2019 season they realized that they are essentially a year ahead of schedule, but they needed a receiver.    It's not so much that there's a "window."   Usually when people use that phrase they mean that the team has the right collection of players but it will fall apart soon, because some key guys are going to retire or leave in free agency.   That isn't what the Bills are looking at.   They have the key people in place for the next several years.   Some guys will leave, but not the core.   So it isn't a window.   

 

Still, McBeane decided that there was no reason to take the risk that they'd get the right receiver and then wait for the guy to develop.   They were ready for the team to move up now, and the trade gave them exactly what they needed.   

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yep. The best FOs are not always right. But they are less often wrong. 

There you go.  

 

I'd like to know where Beane and McDermott had Dareus on their board in 2011.  There's a reason they kept Jerry Hughes and let Marcel go, and I'd guess it's character issues that McBeane identified when each was coming out of college.  

[Don Otreply]

55 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

It might seem like, or wind up being a good, or even great trade KJ but as I said, time will tell. We don't know how the rookies will turn out. Some might be superstars.

 

I remember clearly being told that I was "wrong" for thinking the Watkins trade was dumb. While I'm NOT calling this a dumb trade, I feel like I've earned the right to wait and see

We still would have to give up a lot more draft capital to get one of the top three than we gave up for Diggs, the Watkins trade is not particularly comparable. We gave up much less for Diggs. 

[mjt328]

11 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

It is indeed a crap shoot.

That is why Rule #1 of drafting is to NEVER move up, unless it is for a top QB prospect you feel can't miss near the very top of the draft, and you need a QB.  Think Andrew Luck's consensus coming out of college.  

 

Rule #2: Move DOWN and acquire more picks.

 

More picks = greater chance of lucking into a great player.

 

I have to laugh when I read folks here discussing how "the pros" who do this for a living know how to find talent in the draft.

 

They do not.

 

 

There have been multiple studies done on the draft, and what rounds Hall of Fame legends, All-Pros/Pro-Bowlers, Starters and just guys who make the roster are picked.  In every single study, the highest percentage begins in the 1st Round and gradually decreases each round after that point.  Data shows a direct correlation between how early a player is selected and how successful their career will be.  GMs and Scouts absolutely know what they are doing (admittedly some better than others).

 

There are two reasons that fans BELIEVE the draft is just a random crap shoot:

 

#1 -  First Round prospects are WAY over-hyped.  From the moment the Super Bowl finishes, the top guys in each draft class are pumped up to the point that everyone thinks they are getting a Pro-Bowler.  Which just isn't realistic.  The Pro-Bowl doesn't have enough spots to add 32 new guys every year.  For example, look at the "Bills Worst Draft Pick" thread from a few months ago.  The only reason players like Marcel Dareus, Donte Whitner or Shaq Lawson could possibly be on that list, is because expectations are way too high.  Bottom line... most 1st Round guys (outside of maybe Quarterbacks) at least turn into NFL starters.  And most 7th Round guys don't make the active roster.

 

#2 -  Late round success stories are talked about ENDLESSLY.  Every single year, we are reminded at the beginning of the 6th Round that Tom Brady was picked there 20 years ago.  The problem is, he's pretty much the only 6th Round QB in NFL history who has ever done jack squat.  Brady isn't an example of scouts "missing" on a player.  He's an example of a below-average college talent somehow improving every aspect of his game by 500% after hitting the pros - which just simply doesn't happen.

 

 

 

[buffalover4life]

9 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Trubisky and Thomas were overdrafted. Said that at the time. Fournette's issues are as much off field as on. The one I am genuinely really surprised hasn't been a success is Corey Davis. I had a really high grade on him and I have liked him when I have seen him play in the NFL too. Not really sure what the issue has been and he has been nicked up some. He is the kind of player who I would not be surprised to see go somewhere else and suddenly pop. 

 

I loved Corey Davis, But i was shocked on draft day when he was drafted that high. I agree with the idea that he could pop when he leaves the titans, I'd love to kick the tires on his second contract.

[Blank Stare]

3 hours ago, Bill from NYC said:

Other factors enter into a decision like that, to include the quality of the position group.

 

When Whaley gave away the store for Watkins, we were picking at #9 and there was a lot of talent in that class at wide receiver. We also had no quarterback so it was a dumb move. In 2020, there was even more talent at WR but we had a later pick. It MAY turn out to be a very good move, but it may also not be the best thing for the team. It is not out of the realm of possibility that we could have done better standing pat, or even trading slightly up. Only time will tell.

 

I was skeptical of the trade after watching many years of idiotic draft trades and very dumb selections. Some of them were not that long ago. The good news is that none of them can be attributed to Beane.

This is completely fair and I don’t blame you after the misguided moves made by the previous regime.
 

If we were picking #9 again this year, I would’ve been completely against trading that pick for Diggs. As good as he is, you don’t trade top 10 picks for anything other than QBs. Fortunately, I think the Bills would’ve also been out for that price since we could’ve had our pick of any of the top WRs.

 

It’s crazy what a difference 13 picks makes on how I view a deal. Either 9 or 22, it’s nothing more than lotto tickets. Diggs is still a proven great player, but I wouldn’t trade the #9 pick. 

Edited May 26, 2020 by TheProcess

[Thurman#1]

A crapshoot is something that has an unpredictable outcome, according to Merriam-Webster.

 

The draft as a whole is anything but unpredictable.

 

Every single year in history more first-rounders stick and become good than fourth rounders. It isn't unpredictable by any means. The higher up you go, the better your odds.

 

Is it difficult? Yeah, you bet. But out of the six cited players:

 

1.1  Myles Garrett  DE Browns

1.2  Mitch Trubisky  QB Bears

1.3  Solomon Thomas  DE 49ers

1.4  Leonard Fournette  RB Jaguars

1.5  Corey Davis  WR Titans

1.6  Jamal Adams  S Jets

 

... you've got four excellent players, Those are good odds. Yeah, some fifth-year options haven't been exercised, but that's not a draft issue. It's a multi-factorial decision, involving cap space, injuries, motivation of the player, who else you've got at the position, how valuable the position is and a ton more.

 

I wouldn't have made the Diggs trade, myself. I'm clear that Beane is way better at this than I am, but IMO he paid a bit too much in picks, Diggs may (or may not) be a bit of a diva, and while I absolutely love his pay schedule the next few years, my bet is that he either gets paid more and quite a bit more sometime before the 2022 season ... or that he proves unhappy. My guess is there'll be a re-negotiation in the next two years, which will make that trade look worse.

 

Of course, if the Bills win a Super Bowl sometime soon, that result would validate the decisions made to get there. Hope this is what happens. I wouldn't have made that trade, myself, though.

[Thurman#1]

9 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yep. The best FOs are not always right. But they are less often wrong. 

 

 

Yup. Exactly.

 

Another reason why you want to maximize how high your picks are to give them more freedom of who they can pick, and also maximize the number of picks. If you have a lot of picks, you can trade up or you can give the guy who's less often wrong even more chances.

[JetsFan20]

16 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Whiffing on the first round pick is a killer.   

 

Shaq Lawson, Sammy Watkins, EJ Manuel, Stephon Gilmore, Marcel Dareus, CJ Spiller, Aaron Maybin, Leodis McKelvin, Donte Whitner, Lee Evans.   It's a long string of players who didn't make a difference.   Gilmore is about the only one who lived up to his draft position.  Sammy, Dareus, Leodis, Whitner all underperformed draft position.  Maybin, Spiller, Manuel were whiffs.  Too early to tell on Shaq, but he's almost certainly not a whiff.  

 

Since then, Bills have drafted White, Allen, Edmunds and Oliver.   Too early to tell on them, too, but all the early indications are that Bills got good value on each pick.   Likely the same conclusion on Diggs.  

 

GMs outsmart themselves.   They keep trying to hit home runs in the first round.   The key is, as you say, not whiffing in the first round.   You don't have to get the player with the highest upside, just a very good player.   So you take an Oliver, not a Maybin.   Maybin looked to have the potential of a great, great edge rusher, but his floor was someplace in the sub-basement.   He was boom or bust.   Oliver was much more likely to be, at a minimum, a solid starter.    Whiffing on Maybin hurt much more than getting Oliver's floor - if Bills end up with Oliver's ceiling, it's a huge win, but so long as he's solid it was a good pick.  .  

The NFL is pretty good at this, but not perfect. You are 100 percent correct that they outsmart themselves often. 
 

Josh Allen last year was prime example:

 

 Terrific production as a 4 year starter, top notch athleticism, team captain, played vs SEC competition. He should have absolutely been a top 3-4 pick and somehow falls to 7. Why? Because NFL scouts started nitpicking the way he got the sacks and claimed his pass rush moves weren’t adequate. 
 

DeShaun Watson another great example of this. He fell because teams claimed he was too much of a first read guy and that wouldn’t translate at the next level. 

I think scouts sometimes forget how young these guys are and the fact that the NFL has coaches for a reason. 

 

 

[Buffalo Junction]

19 hours ago, Chaos said:

This is essentially the Chiefs strategy.  However, the majority of people who post on this board are certain beyond doubt that the only way to build a team properly is by "building through the draft"

I thought their strategy was to draft pure BPA regardless of ???. Drug use and domestic violence certainly seem like a secondary concern to Reid. Perhaps it’s him trying to “save” guys after what happened with his son. No clue, but they have a lot of talent with off field issues or odd personalities. 

[John from Riverside]

Color me shocked on Corey davis

 

has every tool to be a number one but somehow is not

[John from Riverside]

17 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Whiffing on the first round pick is a killer.   

 

Shaq Lawson, Sammy Watkins, EJ Manuel, Stephon Gilmore, Marcel Dareus, CJ Spiller, Aaron Maybin, Leodis McKelvin, Donte Whitner, Lee Evans.   It's a long string of players who didn't make a difference.   Gilmore is about the only one who lived up to his draft position.  Sammy, Dareus, Leodis, Whitner all underperformed draft position.  Maybin, Spiller, Manuel were whiffs.  Too early to tell on Shaq, but he's almost certainly not a whiff.  

 

Since then, Bills have drafted White, Allen, Edmunds and Oliver.   Too early to tell on them, too, but all the early indications are that Bills got good value on each pick.   Likely the same conclusion on Diggs.  

 

GMs outsmart themselves.   They keep trying to hit home runs in the first round.   The key is, as you say, not whiffing in the first round.   You don't have to get the player with the highest upside, just a very good player.   So you take an Oliver, not a Maybin.   Maybin looked to have the potential of a great, great edge rusher, but his floor was someplace in the sub-basement.   He was boom or bust.   Oliver was much more likely to be, at a minimum, a solid starter.    Whiffing on Maybin hurt much more than getting Oliver's floor - if Bills end up with Oliver's ceiling, it's a huge win, but so long as he's solid it was a good pick.  .  

So I am going to say we did not do that in all the beane drafts

 

when we took josh Allen and Edmunds we were def taking them on the upside of what they can be

 

in other drafts like with Oliver I felt we went with what the strength of the draft was

 

in this last draft I felt they had every position covered so well that they let the best available decide the player but still came out with three wide receivers counting diggs