The Draft is a total crap shoot...

[Bangarang]

23 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Recent strategy. What did the chiefs do with their early picks the last two years   

They traded their 1st in 2019 as part of the Frank Clark trade. What other early picks are you referring to?

Edited May 26, 2020 by Bangarang

[Billl]

2017 they drafted Mahomes

2018 they traded to the Bills for the Mahomes pick

2019 they traded for Frank Clark

2020 they drafted Edwards-Helaire

[Royale with Cheese]

1 hour ago, teef said:

he's earned those gray hairs!

 

You wish you had those gray hairs.

1 hour ago, KD in CA said:

 

Hello.....my name is Saul Berenson.....you tried to kill Carrie, prepare to die.

 

Did you watch the finale?

[C.Biscuit97]

4 hours ago, Victory Formation said:

It’s a crapshoot for bad teams. Occasionally a good team misses but for the well run franchises in the league they hit more than they miss...

I think this is especially true for teams with great qbs.  IMO, the major difference between the Bills and Pats of the last 10 years is Qb.  Our drafts have been pretty on par with these.  They just have the GOAT and we have had arguably bottom 10 QBs. 

[mjt328]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

How is this the Chiefs strategy? Aren't the majority of their key players - Mahomes, Kelce, Hill, Fisher, Jones - guys they drafted? They traded for Clark and they signed Honey Badger as a FA but 5 of their 7 "stars" are draft and develop guys. 

 

Agree with this.

 

Also, there are a handful of teams around the NFL who are employing a similar strategy:

Step 1:  Draft young QB in the 1st Round

Step 2:  Aggressively surround QB with veteran talent through trades/free agency, before that player hits Year 5-6 and require a contract extension.

 

This is what the Rams and Eagles did starting in 2016.  

This is what the Bears and Chiefs have done starting in 2017.  

This appears to be the strategy for the Browns, Jets and Bills after the 2018 draft.

 

But having that kind of strategy is only part of the equation.

- The Rams are experiencing a very short window, because they were probably too aggressive in the trade market.  

- The Bears were largely unsuccessful, mostly because the QB they drafted never developed into a franchise guy.

- The Eagles and Chiefs both won the Super Bowl, because they picked good QBs, didn't go overboard with trades/free agency, but did a good job of using resources to tackle their weakest roster spots.

 

In my opinion, the Bills seem to have a good balance... more in tune with the Chiefs/Eagles than with the Rams.

The big key will be whether Josh Allen can be like Mahomes/Wentz or like Trubisky.

 

 

Edited May 26, 2020 by mjt328

[C.Biscuit97]

3 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Whiffing on the first round pick is a killer.   

 

Shaq Lawson, Sammy Watkins, EJ Manuel, Stephon Gilmore, Marcel Dareus, CJ Spiller, Aaron Maybin, Leodis McKelvin, Donte Whitner, Lee Evans.   It's a long string of players who didn't make a difference.   Gilmore is about the only one who lived up to his draft position.  Sammy, Dareus, Leodis, Whitner all underperformed draft position.  Maybin, Spiller, Manuel were whiffs.  Too early to tell on Shaq, but he's almost certainly not a whiff.  

 

Since then, Bills have drafted White, Allen, Edmunds and Oliver.   Too early to tell on them, too, but all the early indications are that Bills got good value on each pick.   Likely the same conclusion on Diggs.  

 

GMs outsmart themselves.   They keep trying to hit home runs in the first round.   The key is, as you say, not whiffing in the first round.   You don't have to get the player with the highest upside, just a very good player.   So you take an Oliver, not a Maybin.   Maybin looked to have the potential of a great, great edge rusher, but his floor was someplace in the sub-basement.   He was boom or bust.   Oliver was much more likely to be, at a minimum, a solid starter.    Whiffing on Maybin hurt much more than getting Oliver's floor - if Bills end up with Oliver's ceiling, it's a huge win, but so long as he's solid it was a good pick.  .  

To nit pick 

 

Watkins (if he could stay healthy) could have been a monster but played with some of the worst qbs in the league

 

dareus was an all pro and one of the best young DTs before his contract

 

they traded down for EJ and got Kiko, who ended up being McCoy

 

leodis was a solid number 2 cb.  Not a star but you could do worse.  
 

that said if our qb was Brady instead of Tyrod, Orton the coward, EJ, and whoever, all those players look better.  People make this harder than it needs to be.

 

on our current situation, they built a strong team that doesn’t need great qb play right now.  Now with a tougher schedule, this team will be determined by how good Allen becomes.  But if he can’t be a franchise guy on this team, I highly doubt he ever becomes one.  But if Allen becomes legit, this team is a SB contender.  If not, it’s like the 2002 and 2015 teams, which imo were both superior to last years team. 

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

Agree with this.

 

Also, there are a handful of teams around the NFL who are employing a similar strategy:

Step 1:  Draft young QB in the 1st Round

Step 2:  Aggressively surround QB with veteran talent through trades/free agency, before that player hits Year 5-6 and require a contract extension.

 

This is what the Rams and Eagles did starting in 2016.  

This is what the Bears and Chiefs have done starting in 2017.  

This appears to be the strategy for the Browns, Jets and Bills after the 2018 draft.

 

But having that kind of strategy is only part of the equation.

- The Rams are experiencing a very short window, because they were probably too aggressive in the trade market.  

- The Bears were largely unsuccessful, mostly because the QB they drafted never developed into a franchise guy.

- The Eagles and Chiefs both won the Super Bowl, because they picked good QBs, didn't go overboard with trades/free agency, but did a good job of using resources to tackle their weakest roster spots.

 

In my opinion, the Bills seem to have a good balance... more in tune with the Chiefs/Eagles than with the Rams.

The big key will be whether Josh Allen can be like Mahomes/Wentz or like Trubisky.

 

 

 

Agree with this except for I think reports of the Rams demise have been slightly exaggerated. They are in the best division in football, played a tough slate last year and finished 9-7 despite both QB and coach having some growing pains. Not saying they are a Superbowl team but I expect them to be competitive again. 

[BigBuff423]

I understand the OP's general point about Draft picks being unpredictable and in some respects that's true (IMO). However, to say that it's a "crap shoot" is also misleading in my humble opinion. A "crap shoot" indicates it's a gambler's chance at getting it right. But time and time again, the best organizations find and unearth talent at every level of the Draft and get good to great players, year in and year out. That to me says it's not just a roll of the dice, it's far more nuanced and complex than a "crap shoot". 

 

So far, in the limited sample size, I think Beane and his FO team have done a remarkable job at getting talent all over the Draft and then McD coaching them to their potential. Let us not forget the Milano post-Draft question debacle where there was so much hand-wringing over a 5th Round pick and people questioned Beane's decision. Yet, his absence made the Defense last year noticeably much worse. The best GMs are able to consistently find talent for their teams and put them in positions to maximize their talent. I just think it's so difficult to do that when it's done successfully, it appears to be like a Lotto ticket. JMO

Edited May 26, 2020 by BigBuff423

[Billl]

7 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

Agree with this.

 

Also, there are a handful of teams around the NFL who are employing a similar strategy:

Step 1:  Draft young QB in the 1st Round

Step 2:  Aggressively surround QB with veteran talent through trades/free agency, before that player hits Year 5-6 and require a contract extension.

 

This is what the Rams and Eagles did starting in 2016.  

This is what the Bears and Chiefs have done starting in 2017.  

This appears to be the strategy for the Browns, Jets and Bills after the 2018 draft.

 

But having that kind of strategy is only part of the equation.

- The Rams are experiencing a very short window, because they were probably too aggressive in the trade market.  

- The Bears were largely unsuccessful, mostly because the QB they drafted never developed into a franchise guy.

- The Eagles and Chiefs both won the Super Bowl, because they picked good QBs, didn't go overboard with trades/free agency, but did a good job of using resources to tackle their weakest roster spots.

 

In my opinion, the Bills seem to have a good balance... more in tune with the Chiefs/Eagles than with the Rams.

The big key will be whether Josh Allen can be like Mahomes/Wentz or like Trubisky.

 

 

It’s why I’ve continually praised Whaley and McDermott for the 2017 draft even though they passed on Mahomes.  They had a plan, and they executed it perfectly.  The plan was to load up on draft capital to grab one of the QBs in 2018.  They did exactly that and still managed to come away with a star CB in 2017 after trading back.  
 

You can fault them for not taking one of the QBs in 2017, but if Watson and Mahomes were obvious can’t miss guys, they wouldn’t have been there at 10.  You can fault them for identifying Allen as their guy instead of trading up higher for Mayfield or Darnold or passing on Jackson if one or more of those guys ultimately turn out to be a better player.  That’s a matter of talent evaluation and development rather than of draft strategy, though.  I see no way to fault them for the way they executed the plan, as that was flawless.  For all the crap he gets, turning the 2017 first round pick into Tre White, a third rounder in 2017, and an extra first rounder in 2018 was pretty impressive.

[FireChans]

5 minutes ago, Billl said:

It’s why I’ve continually praised Whaley and McDermott for the 2017 draft even though they passed on Mahomes.  They had a plan, and they executed it perfectly.  The plan was to load up on draft capital to grab one of the QBs in 2018.  They did exactly that and still managed to come away with a star CB in 2017 after trading back.  
 

You can fault them for not taking one of the QBs in 2017, but if Watson and Mahomes were obvious can’t miss guys, they wouldn’t have been there at 10.  You can fault them for identifying Allen as their guy instead of trading up higher for Mayfield or Darnold or passing on Jackson if one or more of those guys ultimately turn out to be a better player.  That’s a matter of talent evaluation and development rather than of draft strategy, though.  I see no way to fault them for the way they executed the plan, as that was flawless.  For all the crap he gets, turning the 2017 first round pick into Tre White, a third rounder in 2017, and an extra first rounder in 2018 was pretty impressive.

They actually executed it pretty poorly by being competitive in 2017. The war room would have been breathing a lot easier in the 2018 draft if we had pick #4.

 

The compensation for pick 10 to pick 27 was also pretty lacking compared to other trades.

 

But if Josh is the guy, no one will care and nor should they.

[KD in CA]

1 hour ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Did you watch the finale?

 

No, we fell off Homeland a couple seasons ago.  But for a while there it was our favorite.

 

[FireChans]

3 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

Nobody wants to use the 2011 1st round to make this point!

 

Barely a whiff in the entire round (outside of some crappy QBs getting over-hyped)

 

Or the 14 draft. Of the first 17 picks, 12 made Pro Bowls. Only 3 are out of the league, 1 of them due to being unable to walk.

[ColoradoBills]

36 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Agree with this except for I think reports of the Rams demise have been slightly exaggerated. They are in the best division in football, played a tough slate last year and finished 9-7 despite both QB and coach having some growing pains. Not saying they are a Superbowl team but I expect them to be competitive again. 

 

I agree they should be competitive this year but it's still going to be an interesting to see what they look like in a year or so.

They did go "ALL IN" and still have the repercussions of that to live thru.

No cap money left this year and even though they got some next year they got a lot of big names to re-sign in FA or to replace.

Also still missing a 1st, 4th and 5th in the draft next year. 

 

They definitely have been a "poster child" for that type of strategy and I'm so curious to how it plays out.

[Alphadawg7]

3 hours ago, FireChans said:

Some folks are trying to defend it against nobody lol. I’m not sure I’ve read a single post bashing the trade in at least a month.

 

Yeah I dont get it.  Not to mention, the compensation we paid was the same to move from 21 to 18...where we would have NOT landed one of the top 3, yet still unproven, rookies who all went in top 17.  So for anyone whining about compensation cost instead of drafting, doesn't understand draft pick value in the first place and probably shouldn't have a convo with them anyway.  

 

Diggs was a great move, he's a great player, with a great contract, is young, and will immediately help Josh and is a top 5 WR in the NFL.  Rookies...are rookies and they are all a gamble.  Thats like going to the Kentucky Derby and betting heavy on a favorite.  They dont always win, and its still a gamble, and when you lose it hurts.  

 

Can not wait to see Diggs on the field in B-lo.  

[Paup 1995MVP]

42 minutes ago, Billl said:

It’s why I’ve continually praised Whaley and McDermott for the 2017 draft even though they passed on Mahomes.  They had a plan, and they executed it perfectly.  The plan was to load up on draft capital to grab one of the QBs in 2018.  They did exactly that and still managed to come away with a star CB in 2017 after trading back.  
 

You can fault them for not taking one of the QBs in 2017, but if Watson and Mahomes were obvious can’t miss guys, they wouldn’t have been there at 10.  You can fault them for identifying Allen as their guy instead of trading up higher for Mayfield or Darnold or passing on Jackson if one or more of those guys ultimately turn out to be a better player.  That’s a matter of talent evaluation and development rather than of draft strategy, though.  I see no way to fault them for the way they executed the plan, as that was flawless.  For all the crap he gets, turning the 2017 first round pick into Tre White, a third rounder in 2017, and an extra first rounder in 2018 was pretty impressive.

We have a very talented roster.  Have brought in lots of solid to good to very good players thru trades free agency and the draft.  And that includes the O line.  (I think they will be solid across the board regardless of who starts at the positions in question)  But the key is going to be Josh Allen.  If he is mediocre like he has mostly been so far in his career (with some real brite spots, and some real poor performances) we will struggle to make the playoffs and not be a contender.  If he plays good to very good all season, we should contend for the Super Bowl.

[SoTier]

2 hours ago, njbuff said:

It's all a matter of where you are drafted too.

 

Is Patrick Mahomes a superstar on the Jets? Not in a million years.

 

It makes a big difference if Andy Reid is developing a QB instead of Adam Gase no matter where they are drafted.

 

Why not?  Andrew Luck was a superstar on the Colts even as a rookie even though he had limited offensive talent around him -- and not very good coaching -- until the Colts brought in a new regime and hired Reich as their HC.  I don't think that Mahomes would have the numbers that he has in KC but I think his talent would be apparent to all.  

 

1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I think this is especially true for teams with great qbs.  IMO, the major difference between the Bills and Pats of the last 10 years is Qb.  Our drafts have been pretty on par with these.  They just have the GOAT and we have had arguably bottom 10 QBs. 

 

The major difference between the Bills and the Pats of the last 10 years was team philosophy.  The Pats were dedicated to winning football games.  The Bills were dedicated to enhancing their bottom line until the day Russ Brandon was fired in 2018.  Under Brandon, who took over the team in 2006, they hired poor/mediocre HCs or first time NFL HCs with the exception of Pegula being conned by Rex Ryan, traded away or didn't resign the best of the young talent they acquired (how about letting 3 All Pros go between 2009 and 2017 -- Jason Peters, Marshawn Lynch, and Stephon Gilmore?), and made "splash" FA signings intended to put butts in the seats rather than help the team win -- most egregious being the signing of Terrell Owens for Dick Jauron's lame duck season in 2009?

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Bill from NYC]

7 hours ago, TheProcess said:

*Dante Fowler

 

And, yes I agree. People (not on this board but in the media) were getting all worked up because of what we gave up for Diggs. Based on where we were picking, I’ll take the proven commodity all day. Especially at a position of desperation and on a reasonable deal (comparatively speaking). 

Other factors enter into a decision like that, to include the quality of the position group.

 

When Whaley gave away the store for Watkins, we were picking at #9 and there was a lot of talent in that class at wide receiver. We also had no quarterback so it was a dumb move. In 2020, there was even more talent at WR but we had a later pick. It MAY turn out to be a very good move, but it may also not be the best thing for the team. It is not out of the realm of possibility that we could have done better standing pat, or even trading slightly up. Only time will tell.

 

I was skeptical of the trade after watching many years of idiotic draft trades and very dumb selections. Some of them were not that long ago. The good news is that none of them can be attributed to Beane.

1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I think this is especially true for teams with great qbs.  IMO, the major difference between the Bills and Pats of the last 10 years is Qb.  Our drafts have been pretty on par with these.  They just have the GOAT and we have had arguably bottom 10 QBs. 

No CB, sorry. Our drafts have been poor and we pick MUCH later that the Patriots, every freaking season!!! They shouldn't have been "on par" with NE. We should have brought in players that were completely superior, to include Mahomes.

 

[Kirby Jackson]

4 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

Other factors enter into a decision like that, to include the quality of the position group.

 

When Whaley gave away the store for Watkins, we were picking at #9 and there was a lot of talent in that class at wide receiver. We also had no quarterback so it was a dumb move. In 2020, there was even more talent at WR but we had a later pick. It MAY turn out to be a very good move, but it may also not be the best thing for the team. It is not out of the realm of possibility that we could have done better standing pat, or even trading slightly up. Only time will tell.

 

I was skeptical of the trade after watching many years of idiotic draft trades and very dumb selections. Some of them were not that long ago. The good news is that none of them can be attributed to Beane.

I think that the Bills were in a position where they needed a number 1 receiver, not “a” receiver. They gave up the equivalent of pick 18 to get a number 1 on a team-friendly deal. The cost to move up for one of those potential #1’s was greater than Diggs. This trade is a no-brainer in the situation that the Bills were in. 

[mjt328]

1 hour ago, BigBuff423 said:

I understand the OP's general point about Draft picks being unpredictable and in some respects that's true (IMO). However, to say that it's a "crap shoot" is also misleading in my humble opinion. A "crap shoot" indicates it's a gambler's chance at getting it right. But time and time again, the best organizations find and unearth talent at every level of the Draft and get good to great players, year in and year out. That to me says it's not just a roll of the dice, it's far more nuanced and complex than a "crap shoot". 

 

So far, in the limited sample size, I think Beane and his FO team have done a remarkable job at getting talent all over the Draft and then McD coaching them to their potential. Let us not forget the Milano post-Draft question debacle where there was so much hand-wringing over a 5th Round pick and people questioned Beane's decision. Yet, his absence made the Defense last year noticeably much worse. The best GMs are able to consistently find talent for their teams and put them in positions to maximize their talent. I just think it's so difficult to do that when it's done successfully, it appears to be like a Lotto ticket. JMO

 

Instead of "crap shoot" phrase, I prefer to look at the draft as an educated guess.

 

At the very top of the draft, you usually have very productive players from big universities.  Physical freaks.  Huge stats.  Guys who have been incredible football players since they were in high school.  Even guys like Chase Young (who went #1 this year) aren't 100% guarantees.  They could always get lazy or get injured.  But there are less things that could POTENTIALLY go wrong.

 

But as those Young-like prospects are snatched up, the remaining players get riskier and riskier.  You start looking at smaller schools with lower levels of competition.  You have guys who may lack athleticism in some way.  You have guys who were not very productive in college.  Guys with injury concerns and off-field red flags.  If the 1st Round has a 75% chance of success (just throwing numbers out here)... the 2nd Round is probably 40-50%...and it continues to drop as the draft goes on.  Certain positions also carry a greater risk that others, due to a greater jump to the pro-level.

 

No GM is going to hit 100% on picks.  But the good ones have a knack for almost always hitting on their Day 1 picks (at least), while also getting some nice players later in the draft.

 

[Bill from NYC]

1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I think that the Bills were in a position where they needed a number 1 receiver, not “a” receiver. They gave up the equivalent of pick 18 to get a number 1 on a team-friendly deal. The cost to move up for one of those potential #1’s was greater than Diggs. This trade is a no-brainer in the situation that the Bills were in. 

It might seem like, or wind up being a good, or even great trade KJ but as I said, time will tell. We don't know how the rookies will turn out. Some might be superstars.

 

I remember clearly being told that I was "wrong" for thinking the Watkins trade was dumb. While I'm NOT calling this a dumb trade, I feel like I've earned the right to wait and see