The Draft is a total crap shoot...

[Kirby Jackson]

3 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Whiffing on the first round pick is a killer.   

 

Shaq Lawson, Sammy Watkins, EJ Manuel, Stephon Gilmore, Marcel Dareus, CJ Spiller, Aaron Maybin, Leodis McKelvin, Donte Whitner, Lee Evans.   It's a long string of players who didn't make a difference.   Gilmore is about the only one who lived up to his draft position.  Sammy, Dareus, Leodis, Whitner all underperformed draft position.  Maybin, Spiller, Manuel were whiffs.  Too early to tell on Shaq, but he's almost certainly not a whiff.  

 

Since then, Bills have drafted White, Allen, Edmunds and Oliver.   Too early to tell on them, too, but all the early indications are that Bills got good value on each pick.   Likely the same conclusion on Diggs.  

 

GMs outsmart themselves.   They keep trying to hit home runs in the first round.   The key is, as you say, not whiffing in the first round.   You don't have to get the player with the highest upside, just a very good player.   So you take an Oliver, not a Maybin.   Maybin looked to have the potential of a great, great edge rusher, but his floor was someplace in the sub-basement.   He was boom or bust.   Oliver was much more likely to be, at a minimum, a solid starter.    Whiffing on Maybin hurt much more than getting Oliver's floor - if Bills end up with Oliver's ceiling, it's a huge win, but so long as he's solid it was a good pick.  .  

Very well said and I think that this gets lost when looking at the draft. You talked about Shaq and at this point he is a perfect example of this. Shaq is a quality defensive lineman. He’s going to get you 8 sacks(ish) and be good against the run. He’s not going to command double teams and be in the backfield every play. You look at him as a first rounder and are like, “he’s okay.” If he was picked in the 2nd round we’d feel it was a nice pick. 
 

The Maybin example is the exact opposite. He was never going to be a “quality defensive lineman.” He was going to be a beast as a pass rusher or be out of the league. That just feels awfully risky/stupid in the top half of the 1st round. Give me the guy, that at worst contributes, and at best is a star. 
 

That’s why Allen wasn’t my guy going into the draft. I didn’t hate him as a prospect but it scared me. In hindsight, I was wrong. He’s a better athlete and leader than I expected which made his floor higher than I realized. He wasn’t nearly as risky as some of us thought because his physical tools are so good that he was going to make a lot of plays with his arm and legs. Josh certainly could have made plenty of mistakes but he was never going to be Paxton Lynch because his tools were too good.

[BillsVet]

2 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

Always take the proven veteran over the unproven draft prospect. Always. 

 

It's not that simple.  Good teams frequently replace their higher (or soon to be) priced veterans with lower cost rookies and the draft is the predominant method for that.  Especially at safety, LB, G, RB, and perhaps DT. 

 

The draft is also where you find talent at the elite positions: QB, WR, LT, DE, and CB because it's rare to pick up someone in UFA on a team friendly contract at those positions. 

 

There is risk inherent to any process and mitigating that on draft day is impossible.  But compared to the reward, draft picks used by competent front offices tend to work out at a higher rate.

 

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

Wait...are people still talking about cost of Diggs trade?  
 

Lonnnnnng offseason.  

[Royale with Cheese]

This is what Inigo Montoya looks like today.

 

[SoTier]

The Diggs trade was a good move because of the Bills need for a true #1 WR for this season.   They simply couldn't afford to wait 2 or 3 years for a WR drafted in 2019 to develop -- if he ever did -- when they need to decide by 2021 whether they'll pick up Allen's fifth year contract, and they can't judge him accurately if he's short on quality targets.  One of the big problems last season was that Allen only had 2 reliable receivers: Beasley and Brown. 

 

[hjnick]

3 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

Here are the first six picks of the 2017 Draft class.

 

1.1  Myles Garrett  DE Browns

1.2  Mitch Trubisky  QB Bears

1.3  Solomon Thomas  DE 49ers

1.4  Leonard Fournette  RB Jaguars

1.5  Corey Davis  WR Titans

1.6  Jamal Adams  S Jets

 

Out of the first six picks at the top of the Draft that year, only Garrett and Adams have had their fifth year option exercised, and the Jets have Jamal Adams on the trade block right now. The other four have significantly underperformed their consensus Draft day projections.

 

Stefon Diggs was drafted in the 5th round, #146, in the 2015 Draft.  Who were the top three draft picks in 2015's Draft?  Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston, and Dante Fowler.  What do those three have in common?  None of them had their 5th year option exercised either. 

 

I'd rather take a surefire NFL talent like Diggs than roll the dice with a college player with potential.  As long as this franchise doesn't need a QB, I'm fine with Beane trading our first round pick every year for a talent like Diggs who is locked up on a team friendly contract. 

 

 

 

First off, as for the Diggs trade, I was not happy with the trade initially.  Not because of the player, but for what we gave up for him.  If it would have been a 2nd round pick instead of a 1st, I would have been ecstatic for the trade.  Especially after the compensation for the other big WR trade this offseason, **cough cough Houston**.  And even farther away from the trade, I've come around that giving up the first for Stefon was 'ok' because of where we were drafting and the level of WR we could have received at that spot.

 

Generally, I want to keep or accumulate draft picks because you always want to infuse fresh new low cost (cap) talent into the roster, so you can have the money to spend on the *higher* talent.  IMO, that is the best way to try and balance your roster.

 

Since the draft is a crapshoot, how do you inject logic and clarity in a chaotic situation? (so if you were the GM, you keep your job)

 

** Side note - If anyone has any insights as to how NFL teams comprise their scouting / player evaluation teams, I would love to hear about it. How many ppl? How much they spend? Anything really about it. Thx. **

 

Obviously, scouting right. *duh*  Trying to come up with some process to evaluate player talents and how they would project to the NFL game.  Now, some teams are much better at drafting than others.  I would assume they have better evaluation teams than the other ones... providing more clarity during chaos.

 

IF I was an owner or GM, you need to understand that player evaluation is the lifeblood of any professional team.  Being able to find the players that will be productive at the next level... be it sure fire 1st round talent, or the undrafted RB that you think can be a good NFL player...

 

To provide clarity, I think you need a good size player evaluation team.  One that evaluates ALL players.  College and current professional players.  Evaluation doesn't end after some other team drafts a WR or OT you wanted.  Analysis continues because they will at some time become a free agent or available thru trade.  You can also use that analysis to provide 20/20 hindsight into your college draft evaluation.  Did I evaluate that person correctly? How do I fix the process if incorrect?

 

So, while I agree with you the draft is a chaotic time filled with wildly random player talent levels, a crapshoot.  Proper player evaluation can provide a great sense of clarity in a difficult time.  Also, self evaluation of the player evaluation process should provide better evaluations in the future, ie. better drafting. 

 

 

 

[wagon127]

Its not necessarily just a crap shoot. You can try your hardest to know your potential players, prior to drafting, but only the player themselves knows what motivates them. Playing at an elite college level, to get to the NFL is one thing, but now that you are there, does the player still have the motivation to be successful there. You are giving a 22 or 23 year old, who never made more then minimum wage, a 7 or 8 figure contract. I have to think your internal movitivation is going to be challenged. 

[FireChans]

59 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Whiffing on the first round pick is a killer.   

 

Shaq Lawson, Sammy Watkins, EJ Manuel, Stephon Gilmore, Marcel Dareus, CJ Spiller, Aaron Maybin, Leodis McKelvin, Donte Whitner, Lee Evans.   It's a long string of players who didn't make a difference.   Gilmore is about the only one who lived up to his draft position.  Sammy, Dareus, Leodis, Whitner all underperformed draft position.  Maybin, Spiller, Manuel were whiffs.  Too early to tell on Shaq, but he's almost certainly not a whiff.  

 

Since then, Bills have drafted White, Allen, Edmunds and Oliver.   Too early to tell on them, too, but all the early indications are that Bills got good value on each pick.   Likely the same conclusion on Diggs.  

 

GMs outsmart themselves.   They keep trying to hit home runs in the first round.   The key is, as you say, not whiffing in the first round.   You don't have to get the player with the highest upside, just a very good player.   So you take an Oliver, not a Maybin.   Maybin looked to have the potential of a great, great edge rusher, but his floor was someplace in the sub-basement.   He was boom or bust.   Oliver was much more likely to be, at a minimum, a solid starter.    Whiffing on Maybin hurt much more than getting Oliver's floor - if Bills end up with Oliver's ceiling, it's a huge win, but so long as he's solid it was a good pick.  .  

Dareus wasn’t a difference maker? Leodis wasn’t solid? Shaq Lawson wasn’t solid? GILMORE WASNT SOLID?

 

Whiffing on a first round pick isn’t a killer if you’re a good team. If you’re a team that sucks, it’s just another thing you suck at.

[Kirby Jackson]

2 minutes ago, wagon127 said:

Its not necessarily just a crap shoot. You can try your hardest to know your potential players, prior to drafting, but only the player themselves knows what motivates them. Playing at an elite college level, to get to the NFL is one thing, but now that you are there, does the player still have the motivation to be successful there. You are giving a 22 or 23 year old, who never made more then minimum wage, a 7 or 8 figure contract. I have to think your internal movitivation is going to be challenged. 

Most of these guys made a lot more than that at the elite programs (and I say this only half-jokingly). 

[FireChans]

38 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Wait...are people still talking about cost of Diggs trade?  
 

Lonnnnnng offseason.  

Some folks are trying to defend it against nobody lol. I’m not sure I’ve read a single post bashing the trade in at least a month.

[DrDawkinstein]

Nobody wants to use the 2011 1st round to make this point!

 

Barely a whiff in the entire round (outside of some crappy QBs getting over-hyped)

 

[teef]

1 hour ago, Royale with Cheese said:

This is what Inigo Montoya looks like today.

 

he's earned those gray hairs!

[KD in CA]

4 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

The point of my thread is that Beane's trade of the 1st round pick was the best use of that valuable draft capital.

 

Next time don't bury the lede.

[billsfan89]

File that under duh. The draft is mostly about coaching communicating to the scouting department what they look for to fit into their system and the scouting department communicating to the coaching staffs the fit of players in the system and their character concerns if any. Even then things are always a crap shoot.

[KD in CA]

1 hour ago, Royale with Cheese said:

This is what Inigo Montoya looks like today.

 

 

Hello.....my name is Saul Berenson.....you tried to kill Carrie, prepare to die.

[Jauronimo]

If the draft is a crap chute then why is nearly half of the NFL Hall of Fame first round draft picks, OP?

[njbuff]

It's all a matter of where you are drafted too.

 

Is Patrick Mahomes a superstar on the Jets? Not in a million years.

 

It makes a big difference if Andy Reid is developing a QB instead of Adam Gase no matter where they are drafted.

[Chaos]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

How is this the Chiefs strategy? Aren't the majority of their key players - Mahomes, Kelce, Hill, Fisher, Jones - guys they drafted? They traded for Clark and they signed Honey Badger as a FA but 5 of their 7 "stars" are draft and develop guys. 

Recent strategy. What did the chiefs do with their early picks the last two years   

[Florida Bills Fanatic]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Trubisky and Thomas were overdrafted. Said that at the time. Fournette's issues are as much off field as on. The one I am genuinely really surprised hasn't been a success is Corey Davis. I had a really high grade on him and I have liked him when I have seen him play in the NFL too. Not really sure what the issue has been and he has been nicked up some. He is the kind of player who I would not be surprised to see go somewhere else and suddenly pop. 

Davis was limited by poor QB play and a very run heavy offense. He has skills to be productive in the league.  I agree with you that he will go somewhere and excel.  If he becomes a free agent, he won't last on the market very long.  Some people compared him to Antonio Brown coming out of college.  I'm sure more than one GM has him on their radar.

As for the other guys, you are spot on for all of them.

[GunnerBill]

16 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Recent strategy. What did the chiefs do with their early picks the last two years   

 

They traded for Clark last year. This year they picked a running back in the first.