The Draft is a total crap shoot...

[vincec]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

How’s 2016 doing?

The top 7 picks are all pro bowlers. But carry on...

[StHustle]

1 hour ago, Limeaid said:

The problem with trading for players with team friendly contract is players often will often hold out feeling circumstances are changed and they deserve more money while those with contracts for those which are overpaid will rarely take pay cuts only restructure moving more money forward making them harder to cut later.

 

Really? This is news to me. Can you provide a few examples cause most hold outs Im aware of are between players and the team who drafted them.

[Chaos]

1 hour ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

 

I'd rather take a surefire NFL talent like Diggs than roll the dice with a college player with potential.  As long as this franchise doesn't need a QB, I'm fine with Beane trading our first round pick every year for a talent like Diggs who is locked up on a team friendly contract. 

 

 

 

This is essentially the Chiefs strategy.  However, the majority of people who post on this board are certain beyond doubt that the only way to build a team properly is by "building through the draft"

[GunnerBill]

17 minutes ago, aristocrat said:

and watson who was a superstart and was a victim of maybe too much success if there is such a thing falls hard.  guy should have gone to anyone in the top 6

 

Hindsight redraft Mahomes goes #1, Watson goes #2 and Garrett goes #3. No doubt about it. Tre White likely goes top 5 or 6 too. 

[aristocrat]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Hindsight redraft Mahomes goes #1, Watson goes #2 and Garrett goes #3. No doubt about it. Tre White likely goes top 5 or 6 too. 

 

mahomes we can at least understand why he dropped.  there was no reason for watson to not have gone 1. 

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, Chaos said:

This is essentially the Chiefs strategy.  However, the majority of people who post on this board are certain beyond doubt that the only way to build a team properly is by "building through the draft"

 

How is this the Chiefs strategy? Aren't the majority of their key players - Mahomes, Kelce, Hill, Fisher, Jones - guys they drafted? They traded for Clark and they signed Honey Badger as a FA but 5 of their 7 "stars" are draft and develop guys. 

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, aristocrat said:

 

mahomes we can at least understand why he dropped.  there was no reason for watson to not have gone 1. 

 

Yea I was on record then as saying if I were the Browns I'd take Watson #1. In hindsight there is no way Mahomes doesn't go #1 but more understandable why he didn't at the time. 

[SoTier]

1 hour ago, Inigo Montoya said:

Here are the first six picks of the 2017 Draft class.

 

1.1  Myles Garrett  DE Browns

1.2  Mitch Trubisky  QB Bears

1.3  Solomon Thomas  DE 49ers

1.4  Leonard Fournette  RB Jaguars

1.5  Corey Davis  WR Titans

1.6  Jamal Adams  S Jets

 

Out of the first six picks at the top of the Draft that year, only Garrett and Adams have had their fifth year option exercised, and the Jets have Jamal Adams on the trade block right now. The other four have significantly underperformed their consensus Draft day projections.

 

Stefon Diggs was drafted in the 5th round, #146, in the 2015 Draft.  Who were the top three draft picks in 2015's Draft?  Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston, and Dante Fowler.  What do those three have in common?  None of them had their 5th year option exercised either. 

 

I'd rather take a surefire NFL talent like Diggs than roll the dice with a college player with potential.  As long as this franchise doesn't need a QB, I'm fine with Beane trading our first round pick every year for a talent like Diggs who is locked up on a team friendly contract. 

 

 

 

 

I think that your point is invalid.  Some teams like the Chiefs, Eagles, and Ravens consistently find top players in the draft and seldom waste their first round picks, and when they have the opportunity to a special player, they go for it.  Other teams, including the Bills but also teams like the Browns,  until very recently seem to always pick the wrong guy.  

 

The evidence that you've offered is "cherry picked".  First of all, using a single draft class proves nothing.  Some drafts have more top end talent than other draft classes, and some classes are just down right putrid.  Somewhere on line some writer posted a list of worst draft classes from over the decades. Conversely, some drafts are loaded with talented players, sometimes at one position and other times at several positions. Over several decades of draft classes, it's rather clear that players taken in the top five or the top ten of any draft are much more likely to have success in the NFL than players drafted later ... and it's rare that late round picks become NFL stars.

 

I would also argue that  the decision to pick up a fifth year option is not necessarily an indicator of whether or not a player has lived up to where he was drafted, especially on teams that have undergone a regime change or at positions that aren't highly valued, such as running back.  

 

I find it interesting that you selected the top six picks from 2017 rather than the top five or the top ten.  In that same draft, the 6th through 10th picks were  ...

 

1.7 Mike Williams  WR  Chargers

1.8 Christian McCaffrey RB Panthers

1.9 John Ross  WR Bengals

1.10 Patrick Mahomes QB Chiefs

 

Mahomes and McCaffrey are both great.  In fact, Mahomes seems likely to be a generational talent if he stays healthy.

 

Stephon Diggs was injured in both his sophomore and junior seasons in college but still decided to declare for the draft.  Those injuries impacted his draft rating.

 

 

 

[aristocrat]

10 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea I was on record then as saying if I were the Browns I'd take Watson #1. In hindsight there is no way Mahomes doesn't go #1 but more understandable why he didn't at the time. 

 

yea i was a big fan of watson. wanted him bad. couldn't believe he dropped

[ghostwriter]

It’s a crapshoot for bad teams. Occasionally a good team misses but for the well run franchises in the league they hit more than they miss...

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, Victory Formation said:

It’s a crapshoot for bad teams. Occasionally a good team misses but for the well run franchises in the league they hit more than they miss...

 

This is my take too. Doesn't mean I didn't love the Diggs trade. The Bills were in a bit of a no man's land in this draft at #22 where the top tier of guys had gone off the board and the next tier didn't quite match up with out scheme and need as such. But these were very specific circumstances - the drafts where I support trading away your 1st for a talented, proven, pro are few and far between. 

[Kirby Jackson]

39 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea I was on record then as saying if I were the Browns I'd take Watson #1. In hindsight there is no way Mahomes doesn't go #1 but more understandable why he didn't at the time. 

Remember how much and how early @thebandit27 was on the Mahomes train? That’s pretty impressive in hindsight.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Kirby Jackson said:

Remember how much and how early @thebandit27 was on the Mahomes train? That’s pretty impressive in hindsight.

 

Yep. Hugely impressive. Bandit loved him all the way through. Blokes did too although I think he had Watson #1 and Mahomes #2. 

[Sherlock Holmes]

2 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

Testors Modeling Cement...huffed.

Top shelf baller! We need to hang out

[mjt328]

1 hour ago, Chaos said:

This is essentially the Chiefs strategy.  However, the majority of people who post on this board are certain beyond doubt that the only way to build a team properly is by "building through the draft"

 

The most important piece for the Chiefs is Patrick Mahomes, who was obviously a draft pick.

When your QB is on a rookie contract, there is a little bit more flexibility in adding veteran players.  Once Mahomes gets $30-40 million per year, the salary cap will no longer allow those kinds of moves.

 

The key is balance.  Rookies are cheap, but they also take time to develop.  It would be foolish to have a team full of nothing but young/inexperienced players, while stockpiling $100 million in unused cap.  But you can go too far the other way (see the Rams), where you totally mortgage the future for the sake of 2-3 seasons.

 

To judge the Stefon Diggs trade, you also have to look at the Bills salary cap position, the youth on the team, and the brief window they have before Josh Allen (potentially) requires a massive contract extension.  It's not something you can just make a hard and fast rule about.

 

[TigerJ]

I understand the point. there is always an element of chance in every draft pick.  I disagree that it is a total crap shoot.  Preparation for the draft is about reducing the element of chance.  You can never eliminate it, but in the first round, you might be able to bring your odds of success for that high pick up into the 30-50% range.  In comparison, your chance of getting a long term starter in the seventh round is probably less than one in ten.  If you didn't prepare, that's where your first round chances would be.  Some teams are better in their evaluation too.

Edited May 27, 2020 by TigerJ

[Billl]

57 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

This is my take too. Doesn't mean I didn't love the Diggs trade. The Bills were in a bit of a no man's land in this draft at #22 where the top tier of guys had gone off the board and the next tier didn't quite match up with out scheme and need as such. But these were very specific circumstances - the drafts where I support trading away your 1st for a talented, proven, pro are few and far between. 

There isn’t a one size fits all strategy because every situation is different.  I like the move to get Diggs because the Bills are officially in their window to win now.  In most scenarios, I believe in using draft picks to land good players or spending free agent dollars to sign good players, but I’m not a fan of giving away draft picks for the right to pay top contracts to players.

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, vincec said:

The top 7 picks are all pro bowlers. But carry on...

 

Wait, so.....no crapshoot?!

 

Better not bring this to the OP's attention.

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

An even bigger problem is whiffing on a 1st round selection.

 

Whiffing on the first round pick is a killer.   

 

Shaq Lawson, Sammy Watkins, EJ Manuel, Stephon Gilmore, Marcel Dareus, CJ Spiller, Aaron Maybin, Leodis McKelvin, Donte Whitner, Lee Evans.   It's a long string of players who didn't make a difference.   Gilmore is about the only one who lived up to his draft position.  Sammy, Dareus, Leodis, Whitner all underperformed draft position.  Maybin, Spiller, Manuel were whiffs.  Too early to tell on Shaq, but he's almost certainly not a whiff.  

 

Since then, Bills have drafted White, Allen, Edmunds and Oliver.   Too early to tell on them, too, but all the early indications are that Bills got good value on each pick.   Likely the same conclusion on Diggs.  

 

GMs outsmart themselves.   They keep trying to hit home runs in the first round.   The key is, as you say, not whiffing in the first round.   You don't have to get the player with the highest upside, just a very good player.   So you take an Oliver, not a Maybin.   Maybin looked to have the potential of a great, great edge rusher, but his floor was someplace in the sub-basement.   He was boom or bust.   Oliver was much more likely to be, at a minimum, a solid starter.    Whiffing on Maybin hurt much more than getting Oliver's floor - if Bills end up with Oliver's ceiling, it's a huge win, but so long as he's solid it was a good pick.  .  

[MassHog]

3 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

Here are the first six picks of the 2017 Draft class.

 

1.1  Myles Garrett  DE Browns

1.2  Mitch Trubisky  QB Bears

1.3  Solomon Thomas  DE 49ers

1.4  Leonard Fournette  RB Jaguars

1.5  Corey Davis  WR Titans

1.6  Jamal Adams  S Jets

 

Out of the first six picks at the top of the Draft that year, only Garrett and Adams have had their fifth year option exercised, and the Jets have Jamal Adams on the trade block right now. The other four have significantly underperformed their consensus Draft day projections.

 

Stefon Diggs was drafted in the 5th round, #146, in the 2015 Draft.  Who were the top three draft picks in 2015's Draft?  Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston, and Dante Fowler.  What do those three have in common?  None of them had their 5th year option exercised either. 

 

I'd rather take a surefire NFL talent like Diggs than roll the dice with a college player with potential.  As long as this franchise doesn't need a QB, I'm fine with Beane trading our first round pick every year for a talent like Diggs who is locked up on a team friendly contract. 

 

 

 

Winston and Mariota both had their 5th year options picked up.