Johnnycage46 Posted May 25, 2020 Posted May 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, Augie said: You know the date, but you don’t know the number (that’s would be the data, and it is wildly incomplete and understated). I don’t get why this is so hard for you, but I’m giving up. Have you been tested? Nobody in my family has been tested. To trust the number of confirmed cases as factual is just plain silly. It is FAR MORE ACTUAL CASES. Too many people are asymptotic, or just mildly ill. I’m not as sleepy as I’m tired with this conversation. Have a nice holiday weekend. I mean that sincerely, hope you have a great time with family and friends (but not too many!). Data may be incomplete but it is all we have. I agree there are likely far more cases. We simply only know what the numbers currently say. I also wondered why this was so hard for you (considering, as you first stated, you didn't have a horse in this race). Time will tell. But as I have said all along I am only responding to earlier posts regarding data comparisons and you and Timmy jumped in. Never had a beef with you stew. Good night. Off to watch some crappy Netflix.
Putin Posted May 25, 2020 Posted May 25, 2020 (edited) 10 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said: Scariest part of COVID-19 isn't the actual virus it's that I've realized half the country doesn't trust the media and the other half doesn't trust the government. This is very scary to me. So your saying politics is scarier then the virus ? I would agree with that !!! Edited May 25, 2020 by Putin 1
MJS Posted May 25, 2020 Posted May 25, 2020 1 hour ago, Buffalo Timmy said: I will not respond after this because you and I have stated our cases and I will give you the last word. Current "hard" numbers are basically worthless and it is like predicting an NFL season based on one game. I wish you a good night. It's like talking to a wall. We should all just give up and move on with our lives. Some people are just convinced that COVID-19 is the worst disease that has ever happened in the history of the world and aren't willing to let the situation ride its course before making such a brash judgement. Similarly, some people are convinced COVID-19 isn't that dangerous at all. Probably neither of those sentiments are true. Based on antibody testing done in multiple locations, they are beginning to find that cases were and are far more widespread than we realized and that it's possible up to 90% of those infected are asymptomatic. That would drop the death rate to FAR below 1%. But still, we just need to wait and see as more data are gathered.
billspro Posted May 25, 2020 Posted May 25, 2020 9 hours ago, Johnnycage46 said: Both of those pandemics had a global death rate below 1%. Whereas COVID-19 currently has a global death rate of ~6%. Can't just look at the total number of deaths. The death rate is a more significant factor. I’m not arguing one way or the other but those COVID stats are not even close to correct. 4 minutes ago, MJS said: It's like talking to a wall. We should all just give up and move on with our lives. Some people are just convinced that COVID-19 is the worst disease that has ever happened in the history of the world and aren't willing to let the situation ride its course before making such a brash judgement. Similarly, some people are convinced COVID-19 isn't that dangerous at all. Probably neither of those sentiments are true. Based on antibody testing done in multiple locations, they are beginning to find that cases were and are far more widespread than we realized and that it's possible up to 90% of those infected are asymptomatic. That would drop the death rate to FAR below 1%. But still, we just need to wait and see as more data are gathered. This will likely be where the data will end up.
MJS Posted May 25, 2020 Posted May 25, 2020 2 hours ago, Johnnycage46 said: Actually it CAN. It's like saying you can't calculate your car's gas mileage right now and you have to wait until you sell your car for it to be official. The DEATH RATE OF COVID-19 RIGHT NOW IS ABOUT 6%. That is a fact based on available data. Like I said already, those data may change, but right now it is fact. I don't know if you do, but IF you do, please don't single-source your news. It will broaden your world. FYI, I don't follow the news. I follow the data. And I gather from dozens of sources. My job is in data, data analysis, and economics. I know how to read studies and I know how easy it is to take clean data and interpret it in a biased manner. I also know how difficult it is to collect truly clean data. I feel I'm unbiased in my opinions of COVID-19. I don't really care if it is like the flu, far worse, or if it turns us all into zombies. I'm pretty open to any outcome. But people deserve to know the limitations of the data and the interpretation thereof. And they deserve to know that the way the media presents data is often exaggerated or even straight up fraudulent. 3
Johnnycage46 Posted May 25, 2020 Posted May 25, 2020 6 minutes ago, billspro said: I’m not arguing one way or the other but those COVID stats are not even close to correct. This will likely be where the data will end up. And how do you know this all mighty one? 3 minutes ago, MJS said: FYI, I don't follow the news. I follow the data. And I gather from dozens of sources. My job is in data, data analysis, and economics. I know how to read studies and I know how easy it is to take clean data and interpret it in a biased manner. I also know how difficult it is to collect truly clean data. I feel I'm unbiased in my opinions of COVID-19. I don't really care if it is like the flu, far worse, or if it turns us all into zombies. I'm pretty open to any outcome. But people deserve to know the limitations of the data and the interpretation thereof. And they deserve to know that the way the media presents data is often exaggerated or even straight up fraudulent. The CDC is not the media. I quoted the CDC about 10 times in this thread. I know certain leaders have tried to discredit the CDC but that is just political posturing. My profession is also in data analysis and economics. But really that is moot. The data presented by the CDC is the data presented by the CDC.
billspro Posted May 25, 2020 Posted May 25, 2020 (edited) 25 minutes ago, Johnnycage46 said: And how do you know this all mighty one? The CDC is not the media. I quoted the CDC about 10 times in this thread. I know certain leaders have tried to discredit the CDC but that is just political posturing. My profession is also in data analysis and economics. But really that is moot. The data presented by the CDC is the data presented by the CDC. It’s just common sense. There will be more asymptotic people than expected when testing increases. The highest report I have seen was 4% but that was a long time ago. I don’t really follow the CDC but in Canada it has been getting lower. Edited May 25, 2020 by billspro 1
Johnnycage46 Posted May 25, 2020 Posted May 25, 2020 (edited) 4 minutes ago, billspro said: It’s just common sense. There will be more asymptotic people than expected when testing increases. The highest report I have seen was 4% but that was a long time ago. I don’t really follow the CDC but in Canada it was around 1% the last time I checked. The CDC is a US entity. Here in the US the death rate as of 5/24/2020 is about 6%. @Augie Edited May 25, 2020 by Johnnycage46
billspro Posted May 25, 2020 Posted May 25, 2020 1 minute ago, Johnnycage46 said: The CDC is a US entity. Here in the US the death rate as of 5/24/2020 is about 6%. Yes but the numbers are greatly skewed because those are confirmed cases. They would be lucky to have tested half of the people who actually had the disease. Still very high numbers and scary.
Johnnycage46 Posted May 25, 2020 Posted May 25, 2020 1 minute ago, billspro said: Yes but the numbers are greatly skewed because those are confirmed cases. They would be lucky to have tested half of the people who actually had the disease. Still very high numbers and scary. As I stated about 15 times. CONFIRMED cases. That is hard data. Anything else is speculation. I agree the numbers can change over time. Right now, the numbers I reported are accurate.
billspro Posted May 25, 2020 Posted May 25, 2020 1 minute ago, Johnnycage46 said: As I stated about 15 times. CONFIRMED cases. That is hard data. Anything else is speculation. I agree the numbers can change over time. Right now, the numbers I reported are accurate. Those number are what is reported but they are not accurate. If you understood virus epidemiology than you would realize that. You would have to test every single person for accurate data and even then there would be some errors due to false positives and false negatives. You also have to factor in multifactorial deaths which gets complicated. What the data shows is a high estimate. The death rate is likely somewhere between 0.5-6.5 %. Hopefully, the numbers they have are incorrect for all our sakes.
Chandler#81 Posted May 25, 2020 Author Posted May 25, 2020 1 hour ago, MJS said: It's like talking to a wall. We should all just give up and move on with our lives. Some people are just convinced that COVID-19 is the worst disease that has ever happened in the history of the world and aren't willing to let the situation ride its course before making such a brash judgement. Similarly, some people are convinced COVID-19 isn't that dangerous at all. Probably neither of those sentiments are true. Based on antibody testing done in multiple locations, they are beginning to find that cases were and are far more widespread than we realized and that it's possible up to 90% of those infected are asymptomatic. That would drop the death rate to FAR below 1%. But still, we just need to wait and see as more data are gathered. Give it a rest, MJS. No one understands your 1st post and it’s gone all downhill from there. Anyhoo, wifee & I spent a couple hours at the beach today. Distanced ourselves sufficiently and -while we didn’t wear masks, had them nearby. The scene was unsettling. Many groups of 10 or more and a lot of them were seen mingling with other folks just walking by. I have a sinking feeling feeling about football in the Fall.. 1
Buffalo_Stampede Posted May 25, 2020 Posted May 25, 2020 2 hours ago, Putin said: So your saying politics is scarier then the virus ? I would agree with that !!! Well yeah, but people in general are. Once people believe everyone is lying to them is when empires fall. Scary times. US is a volcano ready to erupt.
Thurman#1 Posted May 25, 2020 Posted May 25, 2020 10 hours ago, Johnnycage46 said: And why would anyone trust the government? Most of which are self serving slime balls who will change their "beliefs" at the drop of a hat to stay in office and keep that sweet power. You're confusing the government with elected officials. Why would you trust the government? You shouldn't unless they listen to the medical experts. Good elected officials, of either party, will listen to the medical experts and act accordingly. 1
Thurman#1 Posted May 25, 2020 Posted May 25, 2020 (edited) 13 hours ago, MJS said: The "Hong Kong Flu" pandemic in 1968 killed 100,000 people in the US. In 1957 the "Asian Flu" killed 116,000 people in the US. Both significantly more than COVID-19 when you account for population growth. Um, people are still dying of COVID. As in football games, it ain't over till it's over. As with most pandemics, there's likely to be a second wave and we really don't know how big that will be. Thank goodness for social distancing. There have been massive failures in how this was handled. But what was done still seems so has drastically cut down the numbers we would have seen. Not cut nearly as much as could have been, but still a major difference was made. Edited May 25, 2020 by Thurman#1
Nelius Posted May 25, 2020 Posted May 25, 2020 (edited) 4 hours ago, MJS said: Some people are just convinced that COVID-19 is the worst disease that has ever happened in the history of the world and aren't willing to let the situation ride its course before making such a brash judgement. Similarly, some people are convinced COVID-19 isn't that dangerous at all. Probably neither of those sentiments are true. The problem is that that if you believe the latter, then you're likely ignoring the disease even if the former is true. You can't properly manage an infectious disease if you're simultaneously allowing people to ignore it if they want, regardless of how truly terrible it ends up being. So on and on we go. Edited May 25, 2020 by Nelius
Mrbojanglezs Posted May 25, 2020 Posted May 25, 2020 (edited) 16 hours ago, Johnnycage46 said: Both of those pandemics had a global death rate below 1%. Whereas COVID-19 currently has a global death rate of ~6%. Can't just look at the total number of deaths. The death rate is a more significant factor. The death rate is not that high for covid. Antibody testing is showing much higher numbers of people who had it but had no symptoms, those people never got tested positive. Edited May 25, 2020 by Mrbojanglezs
Bob in STL Posted May 25, 2020 Posted May 25, 2020 (edited) 19 hours ago, MJS said: The "Hong Kong Flu" pandemic in 1968 killed 100,000 people in the US. In 1957 the "Asian Flu" killed 116,000 people in the US. Both significantly more than COVID-19 when you account for population growth. This is not a good way to look at it. 18 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said: Scariest part of COVID-19 isn't the actual virus it's that I've realized half the country doesn't trust the media and the other half doesn't trust the government. This is very scary to me. It is scary. Especially when the majority of the media is in bed with one party. The power of the media should not be underestimated. Edited May 25, 2020 by Bob in STL
SoCal Deek Posted May 25, 2020 Posted May 25, 2020 Or....we could use the data (we have tons of it now) and simply protect the vulnerable members of our society, just like we do with every other disease.
Buffalo_Stampede Posted May 25, 2020 Posted May 25, 2020 29 minutes ago, Bob in STL said: This is not a good way to look at it. It is scary. Especially when the majority of the media is in bed with one party. They power of the media should not be underestimated. Problem with most of the media today is that it lacks objectivity. That goes for every side. 1
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