MJS Posted May 25, 2020 Posted May 25, 2020 13 minutes ago, Johnnycage46 said: I am not making things up lol. It's ok for you to be wrong buddy. Death rate AT THIS TIME is about 6% compared to less than 1% for the other pandemics you cited. Not ranting. Just responding to people who can't accept facts. It's ok to be wrong. It's OK! God I hope so. I am just so scared. It's actually not a fact. Death rate can literally not be calculated until after. 9 minutes ago, HardyBoy said: Except this is the first act still, and likely midway through the first act...population density and air travel have changed a lot since 1957. Also, people need to stop judging this just soley on deaths. They are finding long term damage, possibly permanent, in multiple organ systems in people getting sick. The US military is banning people who were hospitalised with covid19 for life, and initially that was just being diagnosed prevented you from enlisting, but was rolled back. That's a huge policy for something likely to infect 70% of the population...there has to be a reason for that. All true points. I'm not trying to de-legitimize COVID-19 by any stretch of the imagination.
Johnnycage46 Posted May 25, 2020 Posted May 25, 2020 Just now, MJS said: It's actually not a fact. Death rate can literally not be calculated until after. Actually it CAN. It's like saying you can't calculate your car's gas mileage right now and you have to wait until you sell your car for it to be official. The DEATH RATE OF COVID-19 RIGHT NOW IS ABOUT 6%. That is a fact based on available data. Like I said already, those data may change, but right now it is fact. I don't know if you do, but IF you do, please don't single-source your news. It will broaden your world. 1
Orlando Buffalo Posted May 25, 2020 Posted May 25, 2020 3 minutes ago, Johnnycage46 said: It's not based on "only the people who had it the worst". Its based on CONFIRMED cases. At this time, those data are accurate. Those data will likely change as time goes on (either increasing or decreasing the overall death rate). But those are the data we have. Johnny they only gave tests to people who were in bad shape until about 3 weeks ago. I am not understanding your attacks on everyone who understands math and stats. I will make a literal bet with you of $1000 that the final number will be less than 2% mortality rate. But before you take me up on the bet please look ath this link. https://in.dental-tribune.com/news/new-estimate-by-the-cdc-brings-down-the-covid-19-death-rate-to-just-0-26-as-against-whos-3-4/
Augie Posted May 25, 2020 Posted May 25, 2020 4 minutes ago, Johnnycage46 said: Actually it CAN. It's like saying you can't calculate your car's gas mileage right now and you have to wait until you sell your car for it to be official. The DEATH RATE OF COVID-19 RIGHT NOW IS ABOUT 6%. That is a fact based on available data. Like I said already, those data may change, but right now it is fact. I don't know if you do, but IF you do, please don't single-source your news. It will broaden your world. I don’t have a horse in this race, but you can’t know the death rate unless you know how many people have been infected. If we KNOW I sneezed on 10 people, and 5 died, that’s 50%. If I actually sneezed on 100 people, but only 5 died, the math changes. MOST people have not been tested. We have NO IDEA how many people have been infected, so you can’t do the math with any reliability. We only know (roughly) how many have died, but you need the number from the other side of the equation to have any accuracy. Either way, it’s far too many deaths and we need to be smart. A good friend is having a cookout tomorrow. His kids, some of their friends and some folks from his neighborhood. My wife is conveniently “working” tomorrow to catch up. I asked if he was in a “virus be damned state of mind”, but won’t push it beyond that. I found the idea fun after a long lockdown, but also disappointing.
Johnnycage46 Posted May 25, 2020 Posted May 25, 2020 7 minutes ago, Buffalo Timmy said: Johnny they only gave tests to people who were in bad shape until about 3 weeks ago. I am not understanding your attacks on everyone who understands math and stats. I will make a literal bet with you of $1000 that the final number will be less than 2% mortality rate. But before you take me up on the bet please look ath this link. https://in.dental-tribune.com/news/new-estimate-by-the-cdc-brings-down-the-covid-19-death-rate-to-just-0-26-as-against-whos-3-4/ Dude. I said. It. Is. Based. On. Confirmed. Cases. I didn't say who did or did not receive tests. The data is based on CONFIRMED cases regardless of what "shape they were in". And I already stated that the death rate is subject to change based on final data. There seems to be a certain leaning to the push back on this.
Orlando Buffalo Posted May 25, 2020 Posted May 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, Augie said: I don’t have a horse in this race, but you can’t know the death rate unless you know how many people have been infected. If we KNOW I sneezed on 10 people, and 5 died, that’s 50%. If I actually sneezed on 100 people, but only 5 died, the math changes. MOST people have not been tested. We have NO IDEA how many people have been infected, so you can’t do the math with any reliability. We only know (roughly) how many have died, but you need the number from the other side of the equation to have any accuracy. Either way, it’s far too many deaths and we need to be smart. A good friend is having a cookout tomorrow. His kids, some of their friends and some folks from his neighborhood. My wife is conveniently “working” tomorrow to catch up. I asked if he was in a “virus be damned state of mind”, but won’t push it beyond that. I found the idea fun after a long lockdown, but also disappointing. Dude stop arguing- it is pointless. He is basically stating he has one stat and he will ride that stat no matter how incomplete it is or worthless it is in the long run.
Johnnycage46 Posted May 25, 2020 Posted May 25, 2020 Just now, Augie said: I don’t have a horse in this race, but you can’t know the death rate unless you know how many people have been infected. If we KNOW I sneezed on 10 people, and 5 died, that’s 50%. If I actually sneezed on 100 people, but only 5 died, the math changes. MOST people have not been tested. We have NO IDEA how many people have been infected, so you can’t do the math with any reliability. We only know (roughly) how many have died, but you need the number from the other side of the equation to have any accuracy. Either way, it’s far too many deaths and we need to be smart. A good friend is having a cookout tomorrow. His kids, some of their friends and some folks from his neighborhood. My wife is conveniently “working” tomorrow to catch up. I asked if he was in a “virus be damned state of mind”, but won’t push it beyond that. I found the idea fun after a long lockdown, but also disappointing. The current death rate in the US is based on confirmed cases and total deaths RIGHT NOW. I have stated this ad nauseam. I acknowledge that the death rate is likely to change either higher or lower with more data....but right now...with data available, it is what it is. My initial remarks were in regard to others' claims that other pandemics were deadlier...however, that too is inaccurate if we can't possibly know the death rate until after the virus subsides. And further, I call that all BS. We have cancer mortality rates based on current data...we don't wait until there is a cure for that type of cancer to decide what the "final" death rate is. Just now, Buffalo Timmy said: Dude stop arguing- it is pointless. He is basically stating he has one stat and he will ride that stat no matter how incomplete it is or worthless it is in the long run. Lol, just like you right Timmy? Immovable object meets the irresistible force.
Augie Posted May 25, 2020 Posted May 25, 2020 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Buffalo Timmy said: Dude stop arguing- it is pointless. He is basically stating he has one stat and he will ride that stat no matter how incomplete it is or worthless it is in the long run. He thinks “confirmed cases” is a valuable number, when it is just the tip of the iceberg. The math is worthless without real data. There is no point to trying to pin exact numbers............without exact numbers. They may calculate it that way now, but it should also come with an asterisk saying it’s wildly inaccurate, and we know it. . Edited May 25, 2020 by Augie
Johnnycage46 Posted May 25, 2020 Posted May 25, 2020 1 minute ago, Augie said: He thinks “confirmed cases” is a real number, when it is just the tip of the iceberg. The math is worthless without real data. Hi, "he" here. Confirmed cases is a real number. Its what we have to work with. That is how data works. In any data set, we can always wonder about unknowns, but end of day we work with what we have. What do you consider "real data"? Asking for a friend.
Orlando Buffalo Posted May 25, 2020 Posted May 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, Johnnycage46 said: Lol, just like you right Timmy? Immovable object meets the irresistible force. I am sorry that my actual understanding of stats makes you feel that I am arguing a difficult point. You have one stat and are running with it as if it matters and confusing it with an actual death rate. You tried to act like you were quoting the CDC but they estimate the death rate is well less than 1%, which is what I linked for you earlier. Please stop saying the death rate is 6% because no one with any understanding of stats or how viruses work agree.
Augie Posted May 25, 2020 Posted May 25, 2020 (edited) 9 minutes ago, Johnnycage46 said: Hi, "he" here. Confirmed cases is a real number. Its what we have to work with. That is how data works. In any data set, we can always wonder about unknowns, but end of day we work with what we have. What do you consider "real data"? Asking for a friend. Unless everyone is tested, we don’t know the REAL rate. Forget rates based upon faulty assumptions. We have a guess as to how deadly it is. Test more people the rate goes down. Test more people in ICU’s and the rate goes up. It’s quite simple, really. I may have had it, you may have had it, your whole family may have had it. I’m not putting a lot of faith in numbers with such incomplete data. For me, it’s enough to know that it’s serious and we should all behave wisely. . Edited May 25, 2020 by Augie
Johnnycage46 Posted May 25, 2020 Posted May 25, 2020 1 minute ago, Buffalo Timmy said: I am sorry that my actual understanding of stats makes you feel that I am arguing a difficult point. You have one stat and are running with it as if it matters and confusing it with an actual death rate. You tried to act like you were quoting the CDC but they estimate the death rate is well less than 1%, which is what I linked for you earlier. Please stop saying the death rate is 6% because no one with any understanding of stats or how viruses work agree. Really, "no one with any understanding of stats or how viruses work agree"? And where did you glean this pearl of wisdom. The death rate at this time, with available data, is about 6%. Regardless of how that makes you feel about this upcoming election; the facts, as they stand now, are the facts.
Orlando Buffalo Posted May 25, 2020 Posted May 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, Johnnycage46 said: Really, "no one with any understanding of stats or how viruses work agree"? And where did you glean this pearl of wisdom. The death rate at this time, with available data, is about 6%. Regardless of how that makes you feel about this upcoming election; the facts, as they stand now, are the facts. https://in.dental-tribune.com/news/new-estimate-by-the-cdc-brings-down-the-covid-19-death-rate-to-just-0-26-as-against-whos-3-4/ You say 6% the CDC says less than 1%, who should I believe?
Johnnycage46 Posted May 25, 2020 Posted May 25, 2020 3 minutes ago, Augie said: Unless everyone is tested, we don’t know the REAL rate. Forget rates based upon faulty assumptions. We have a guess as to how deadly it is. Test more people the rate goes down. Test more people in ICU’s and the rate goes up. It’s quite simple, really. I may have had it, you may have had it, your whole family may have had it. I’m not putting a lot of faith in numbers with such incomplete data. For me, it’s enough to know that it’s serious and we should all behave wisely. . What are the faulty assumptions? The data are based on current statistics. That is how things work. I used cancer mortality rates as an example before. Those data are based on data that has come to pass...it doesn't mean someone with cancer can't beat it...it just means that based on ongoing data the rates are what they are. With these types of things, the data will be ongoing for quite some time. But the current data is what it is regardless of people's feelings or political fears.
Johnnycage46 Posted May 25, 2020 Posted May 25, 2020 8 minutes ago, Buffalo Timmy said: https://in.dental-tribune.com/news/new-estimate-by-the-cdc-brings-down-the-covid-19-death-rate-to-just-0-26-as-against-whos-3-4/ You say 6% the CDC says less than 1%, who should I believe? https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html Current data (CURRENT! for god's sake CURRENT. YES I KNOW IT WILL LIKELY CHANGE) from the CDC. Articles are great but the CDC website is reporting these numbers. 1
Augie Posted May 25, 2020 Posted May 25, 2020 (edited) 11 minutes ago, Johnnycage46 said: What are the faulty assumptions? The data are based on current statistics. That is how things work. I used cancer mortality rates as an example before. Those data are based on data that has come to pass...it doesn't mean someone with cancer can't beat it...it just means that based on ongoing data the rates are what they are. With these types of things, the data will be ongoing for quite some time. But the current data is what it is regardless of people's feelings or political fears. The faulty assumption is HOW MANY PEOPLE HAVE BEEN INFECTED. That would be HALF of the equation, so kind of a big deal in determining mortality rate. Math is that way. We have no idea the total number infected, therefore we have no idea what the mortality rate is. If you want to use “confirmed cases”, fine for you. Dead is dead, and easy to count. Infected but we never knew? That affects the actual mortality rate of the virus, but you refuse to see that. That 6% is nowhere near accurate and I think everybody knows that, but you feel free to carry on. I find this tiring. If I got a call and they told me a person died in my garage from carbon monoxide poisoning, it would be terrible, just like Covid-19. If there were 2 people in my garage that would be a 50% mortality rate. If there were 100 people in my garage, that would be a 1% mortality rate. You can’t know the rate without knowing all the numbers. . Edited May 25, 2020 by Augie
RiotAct Posted May 25, 2020 Posted May 25, 2020 22 minutes ago, Johnnycage46 said: Hi, "he" here. Confirmed cases is a real number. Its what we have to work with. That is how data works. In any data set, we can always wonder about unknowns, but end of day we work with what we have. What do you consider "real data"? Asking for a friend. so what’s your position on them opening the games up to fans in September?
Orlando Buffalo Posted May 25, 2020 Posted May 25, 2020 1 minute ago, Johnnycage46 said: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html Current data (CURRENT! for god's sake CURRENT. YES I KNOW IT WILL LIKELY CHANGE) from the CDC. Articles are great but the CDC website is reporting these numbers. I will not respond after this because you and I have stated our cases and I will give you the last word. Current "hard" numbers are basically worthless and it is like predicting an NFL season based on one game. I wish you a good night. 2
Johnnycage46 Posted May 25, 2020 Posted May 25, 2020 8 minutes ago, Augie said: The faulty assumption is HOW MANY PEOPLE HAVE BEEN INFECTED. That would be HALF of the equation, so kind of a big deal in determining mortality rate. Math is that way. We have no idea the total number infected, therefore we have no idea what the mortality rate is. If you want to use “confirmed cases”, fine for you. Dead is dead, and easy to count. Infected but we never knew? That affects the actual mortality rate of the virus, but you refuse to see that. That 6% is nowhere near accurate and I think everybody knows that, but you feel free to carry on. I find this tiring. If I got a call and they told me a person died in my garage from carbon monoxide poisoning, it would be terrible, just like Covid-19. If there were 2 people in my garage that would be a 50% mortality rate. If there were 100 people in my garage, that would be a 1% mortality rate. You can’t know the rate without knowing all the numbers. . Wrong. Like I said, sleepy, the date we have is the date we have. 8 minutes ago, RiotAct said: so what’s your position on them opening the games up to fans in September? Huh, what does THAT have to do with anything???? Yeah, off the rails. Sorry. Quarantine and kids at home and all. I think it's a no-go for fans but games are on. 8 minutes ago, Buffalo Timmy said: I will not respond after this because you and I have stated our cases and I will give you the last word. Current "hard" numbers are basically worthless and it is like predicting an NFL season based on one game. I wish you a good night. Good night too. I need to get out of the house. No hard feelings and good discussion all around.
Augie Posted May 25, 2020 Posted May 25, 2020 Just now, Johnnycage46 said: Wrong. Like I said, sleepy, the date we have is the date we have. You know the date, but you don’t know the number (that’s would be the data, and it is wildly incomplete and understated). I don’t get why this is so hard for you, but I’m giving up. Have you been tested? Nobody in my family has been tested. To trust the number of confirmed cases as factual is just plain silly. It is FAR MORE ACTUAL CASES. Too many people are asymptotic, or just mildly ill. I’m not as sleepy as I’m tired with this conversation. Have a nice holiday weekend. I mean that sincerely, hope you have a great time with family and friends (but not too many!).
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