Football in a pandemic era. It’s been done before..

[Doc Brown]

1 hour ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

6% is not the death rate. I can not find where you even found that. The highest I found was 4% and that is of confirmed cases. The death rate is around 1% considering all the people who have had it and not had enough symptoms to get tested. It is good you understand the death rate is important but don't lie.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-05-covid-death.amp&ved=2ahUKEwj9w4rAzc3pAhWJZs0KHWTNBe0QFjAGegQIBRAB&usg=AOvVaw3o6Y-USGlIKoJEk6YFOPBr&ampcf=1

The death rate is likely between .2 and .6%.  For comparison, the death rate in the US for the H1N1 flu of 2009 was .02%.  We also know it's very contagious so even at the lower end of the estimate (.2%) if half the US population gets it that's 331,000 deaths.  That's why social distancing, masks, avoiding large public gatherings, etc., and the race for a vaccine is so essential.

Edited May 25, 2020 by Doc Brown

[MJS]

1 hour ago, Nelius said:

 

I mean, if you're going to compare it to the Hong Kong Flu, which killed as many in this country overall as what Covid has so far, and then seemingly indicate that Covid isn't as bad, what conclusion am I supposed to make?

I didn't make that conclusion, so why should you. Just stating facts.

1 hour ago, K-9 said:

The Hong Kong pandemic lasted over a year. We’ve counted nearly as many deaths in just a few months and will most likely experience a second wave in the fall as well.

That's true. It's not over.

 

Is it a competition of which pandemic is worse? It's not. Just looking at the facts. If we are bringing up 1918 then it is just as valid to bring up other pandemics. All of them suck, including COVID-19.

Edited May 25, 2020 by MJS

[TroutDog]

“I think the lesson we can draw in general from 1918 about how to respond to a pandemic is that closure orders and social distancing is effective.” This is the quote from the article that resonated with me. 
 

Here’s a tip for those offering their two cents: listen to scientists and scientists alone. Most else is political garbage. 
 

I LOVE politics but the extremes (MSNBC and FOX) are simply propaganda. There is a vast amount of reasonable news out there, you simply have to think critically. It seems to be a lost art these days. 
 

Back to football: I hope and pray we have a season in some way, shape or form. It will benefit the psyche of our country...and allow Buffalo to have our first SB victory!!!!!! ? 

Edited May 25, 2020 by TroutDog

[MJS]

1 minute ago, TroutDog said:

“I think the lesson we can draw in general from 1918 about how to respond to a pandemic is that closure orders and social distancing is effective.” This is the quote from the article that resonated with me. 
 

Here’s a tip for those offering their two cents: listen to scientists and scientists alone. Most else is political garbage. 
 

I LOVE politics but the extremes (MSNBC and FOX) are simply propaganda. There is a vast amount of reasonable news out there, you simply have to think critically. It seems to be a lost art these days. 
 

Back to football: I hope and pray we have a season in some way, shape or form. It will benefit the psyche of our country...and allow Buffalo to have our first SB victory!!!!!! ? 

 

Scientists can be just as political as politicians, unfortunately.

 

I'd say trust the data. Interpretation of data can be, and usually is, biased. So you have to make your own conclusions while weighing the data itself and the opinion of those who are interpreting it.

 

As far as pandemics are concerned, the scientists usually overestimate or simply consider the worst possible outcome. Go back and look at projections for previous diseases and they are all incredibly inflated compared to what actually happens. Accurate projections based on extremely limited data are practically impossible, but they do the best they can.

 

COVID-19 is something that will be studied for years. After that is done we'll truly know the impact. For sure it is one of the worst pandemics we have seen in modern days.

[K-9]

21 minutes ago, MJS said:

I didn't make that conclusion, so why should you. Just stating facts.

That's true. It's not over.

 

Is it a competition of which pandemic is worse? It's not. Just looking at the facts. If we are bringing up 1918 then it is just as valid to bring up other pandemics. All of them suck, including COVID-19.

Competition? I certainly hope not as that is beyond stupid. But when I hear references to the Hong Kong flu pandemic and how it killed 100,000 Americans, but we never shut things down, etc., I suspect some people are reaching for a false equivalency and seek to downplay the current situation.

[Johnnycage46]

2 hours ago, MJS said:

Nope. What gave you that idea?

 

 

You, I guess???  You used data that by your own admission is an incomplete study....as did I.  Then you refuted my take due to incomplete data.  So you can't have it both ways.

1 hour ago, RyanC883 said:

 

that was his point.  the death rate of those in the US was higher then.  

Nope.  Also, he said we can't use death rate as we don't yet know the final tally but we CAN use any other parameters to make a point just so long as it is in line with his thinking.

[Johnnycage46]

2 hours ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

6% is not the death rate. I can not find where you even found that. The highest I found was 4% and that is of confirmed cases. The death rate is around 1% considering all the people who have had it and not had enough symptoms to get tested. It is good you understand the death rate is important but don't lie.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-05-covid-death.amp&ved=2ahUKEwj9w4rAzc3pAhWJZs0KHWTNBe0QFjAGegQIBRAB&usg=AOvVaw3o6Y-USGlIKoJEk6YFOPBr&ampcf=1

 

Here ya go:  https://www.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/

 

This is the US CDC for US cases and deaths.  Sits at about 5.9% or, as I said about 6%.  In my original post I quoted global data that I found through a simple Google search looking for "COVID-19 death rate".

 

The 1% is not accurate.  About 6 time too low.

 

Also, your link is 2 weeks out of date, AND a predictive model...NOT actual rate based on actual collected data.

Edited May 25, 2020 by Johnnycage46

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Any numbers out there are what they are with shutting down entire countries. I've never seen entire countries shut down, so yes this is worse than anything we've seen in our lifetime.

 

 

[MJS]

28 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Competition? I certainly hope not as that is beyond stupid. But when I hear references to the Hong Kong flu pandemic and how it killed 100,000 Americans, but we never shut things down, etc., I suspect some people are reaching for a false equivalency and seek to downplay the current situation.

They probably should have shut things down and then they may not have lost that many lives. Or perhaps not. Who knows?

 

I certainly have not advocated for a "business as usual" approach to COVID-19.

[stuvian]

that link was a great and thought provoking read. I'm expecting football to be played in front of little or no fans to start the season. TV money is better than no money at all. 

 

Death is inevitable but societal shut down is not. A pandemic is one thing but a great depression as a man made response is stupid.

 

The majority of deaths are among residents and workers in eldercare facilities. This is where the lockdown should occur. 

 

We have had better promotion of social distancing today than in past pandemics. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Just now, Johnnycage46 said:

 

Here ya go:  https://www.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/

 

This is the US CDC for US cases and deaths.  Sits at about 5.9% or, as I said about 6%.  In my original post I quoted global data that I found through a simple Google search looking for "COVID-19 death rate".

 

The 1% is not accurate.  About 6 time too low.

There's people out there that think the CDC is lying. The CDC!!!

[Johnnycage46]

2 hours ago, Beast said:

 

That doesn't scare me a bit.

 

Walmart and Lowe's must absolutely terrify you.

 

 

Well aren't you a big boy.

 

Walmart scares me for many reasons.  But in general, selfish, ignorant, and misguided people scare me the most.

 

Edit:  sorry, forgot to wish you a great party this weekend.  Might want to check the evil media reports of all the new clusters of Covid that keep appearing when morons refuse to follow not only state guidelines, but the President's guidelines.  Enjoy!

Edited May 25, 2020 by Johnnycage46

[MJS]

8 minutes ago, Johnnycage46 said:

You, I guess???  You used data that by your own admission is an incomplete study....as did I.  Then you refuted my take due to incomplete data.  So you can't have it both ways.

Nope.  Also, he said we can't use death rate as we don't yet know the final tally but we CAN use any other parameters to make a point just so long as it is in line with his thinking.

You seem to be making a lot of things up. Death rate can only be calculated if you know the total number of cases. Total deaths can be cited as we know that number with a reasonable certainly. COVID-19 deaths (so far) are known, and that number will continue to go up.

 

What are you ranting against? What opinion of mine do you think is wrong?

[Beast]

1 minute ago, Johnnycage46 said:

Well aren't you a big boy.

 

Walmart scares me for many reasons.  But in general, selfish, ignorant, and misguided people scare me the most.

Just an observation. 
 

You don’t have to go out. You’ll be OK.

[MJS]

3 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

There's people out there that think the CDC is lying. The CDC!!!

Well they are working with incomplete data and doing the best they can, I'm sure. But people need to understand how to interpret that data and know that everything is preliminary and based on a very limited data set. I'm sure the CDC would be the first ones to confirm that.

 

Doesn't mean we shouldn't take precautions or take the disease seriously. For all we know it could be far worse than anyone realizes. We just don't have the data to know for sure.

[Johnnycage46]

1 minute ago, MJS said:

You seem to be making a lot of things up. Death rate can only be calculated if you know the total number of cases. Total deaths can be cited as we know that number with a reasonable certainly. COVID-19 deaths (so far) are known, and that number will continue to go up.

 

What are you ranting against? What opinion of mine do you think is wrong?

I am not making things up lol.  It's ok for you to be wrong buddy.  Death rate AT THIS TIME is about 6% compared to less than 1% for the other pandemics you cited.

 

Not ranting.  Just responding to people who can't accept facts.  It's ok to be wrong.  It's OK!

2 minutes ago, Beast said:

Just an observation. 
 

You don’t have to go out. You’ll be OK.

God I hope so.  I am just so scared.

[Orlando Buffalo]

9 minutes ago, Johnnycage46 said:

 

Here ya go:  https://www.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/

 

This is the US CDC for US cases and deaths.  Sits at about 5.9% or, as I said about 6%.  In my original post I quoted global data that I found through a simple Google search looking for "COVID-19 death rate".

 

The 1% is not accurate.  About 6 time too low.

 

Also, your link is 2 weeks out of date, AND a predictive model...NOT actual rate based on actual collected data.

In your original post you stated global not CDC which is US only- I double checked just to be sure. Second no one believes that even the majority of people who got it were tested. Your 6% is based on the smallest sample size with only the people who had it the worst. 

[HardyBoy]

7 hours ago, MJS said:

The "Hong Kong Flu" pandemic in 1968 killed 100,000 people in the US.

 

In 1957 the "Asian Flu" killed 116,000 people in the US.

 

Both significantly more than COVID-19 when you account for population growth.

 

Except this is the first act still, and likely midway through the first act...population density and air travel have changed a lot since 1957. 

 

Also, people need to stop judging this just soley on deaths. They are finding long term damage, possibly permanent, in multiple organ systems in people getting sick. The US military is banning people who were hospitalised with covid19 for life, and initially that was just being diagnosed prevented you from enlisting, but was rolled back. That's a huge policy for something likely to infect 70% of the population...there has to be a reason for that.

[RiotAct]

Just now, Buffalo Timmy said:

In your original post you stated global not CDC which is US only- I double checked just to be sure. Second no one believes that even the majority of people who got it were tested. Your 6% is based on the smallest sample size with only the people who had it the worst. 

I mean, people can only work with the data that’s out there.  Technically, Johnnycage is correct.  Who knows what the true death rate is though, since (should go without saying) there’s a TON of people who have had this in the past four months or so who never got tested.

[Johnnycage46]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

In your original post you stated global not CDC which is US only- I double checked just to be sure. Second no one believes that even the majority of people who got it were tested. Your 6% is based on the smallest sample size with only the people who had it the worst. 

It's not based on "only the people who had it the worst".  Its based on CONFIRMED cases.  At this time, those data are accurate.  Those data will likely change as time goes on (either increasing or decreasing the overall death rate).   But those are the data we have.